9 hours ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
Maybe we can start talking about the issue we've been ignoring
A commentary on the new survey written by Sir John Curtice (love him, who doesn't) delves into some of the stuff that might be going on with the figures. The public are well aware of Britain's problems, he says; indeed, lots of them are feeling it directly. But Sir John also says that rather than turning their backs on the state, for the most part the public are still inclined to look to government to provide solutions. They also feel that most people on low and middle incomes are paying enough tax already but suspect some of the better-off could pay more. If the people who run the survey had asked me for my opinion, I would have said pretty much the same thing.
However, it's the consequences of all this for the political parties that really interests me because the public's view of how it's working now is remarkable. For example, just 19% think the current system of governing Britain needs little or no improvement. As for trust in government, only 12% trust it to put the country's interests before party interests 'just about always' or 'most of the time'. This is even lower than the previous record low of 14% in 2023. It's bad.
The specifics of the findings are particularly troubling for Labour. The report says only 30% of people in what sociologists call semi-routine and routine occupations voted Labour, compared with 42% in professional and managerial jobs. To put it another way, Labour won the election but failed to reconnect with its traditional base of working-class voters, which is a big change. The working-class Tory and the posho socialist have always been a thing, but broadly speaking, support for political parties in this country has always been pretty much in line with social class. Now the traditional class-based support for parties is breaking down.
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The Social Attitudes Survey suggests that one of the new alternative influences on voting could be age: only 6% of 18 to 24-year-olds voted Tory compared to 36% of those aged 65 and over. But the age factor isn't new really: young people have always been drawn more to the left before tending to become conservative as they grow older. Again, there have always been exceptions – the teenage Tory like William Hague in the 70s or the ageing socialist with a mortgage and an ISA – but on the whole, oldies are less likely to be lefties.
Education as a factor is also hard to pin down. The Attitudes Survey says just 5% of graduates voted for Reform compared with 25% of those with less than an A level or equivalent, but this isn't a completely different issue from class if we consider how levels of education are broadly linked to background. And we know Reform is polling better than Labour among working-class voters. A recent YouGov poll found that among the social and economic groups C2DE – I hate all this pseudo-scientific terminology but it's hard to avoid – Reform has around 30% support compared to 20% for Labour. In other words, it's class that's the factor here.
Even the Attitudes Survey's results on the culture war and 'equalities' issues follows the same sort of pattern. The survey says people with liberal attitudes on culture war and equalities issues mostly voted Labour (53%), Lib Dem (17%) or Green (14%) while those with more conservative views were more likely to support the Tories (32%) or Reform (28%). You could take issue with the terms liberal and conservative here, but the survey's conclusion is that the way people vote reflects their views on culture war issues – trans, gender, race, DEI, all that – just as much as where they stand in the traditional debate between left and right.
Nigel Farage of Reform (Image: Ben Birchall)
But again, it's all about class. Is it any surprise that identity politics focused on gender and race has failed to catch on in working class communities when they're the ones dealing with the effects of economic inequality based on class? Thanks to multiple reports from the Social Mobility Commission, and the fact that we can see it for ourselves every day, we know that although only 7% of the population is privately educated, they're dominant in politics, business and the media. And yet when it comes to diversity quotas or lessons on DEI, social class doesn't get a mention.
There are at least some people talking about it though. The Education Select Committee did a good report on the subject in 2021 in which they said ideas such as 'white privilege' were the opposite to what disadvantaged white children experience and were alienating to working class communities. They hear all the talk about their privilege and they don't hear much talk about how disadvantage affects their lives and, as we can see in the Attitudes Survey, it's started to have an effect on how they vote. Bottom line: class.
Where we need to go from here would seem obvious then. As the survey points out, trust in government and party politics is low. The connection between Labour and its traditional working-class base has also been severed and it won't be restored while politicians and commentators, with that Nelsonian blindness, are talking about other things instead. Reform are scooping up votes because they're benefitting from voters who feel ignored. So stop ignoring them. Start talking seriously about economic inequality. Start suggesting solutions (it might be taxing the better-off more, who knows). But above all, start talking about what's really going on here: class, class, class.
