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The Advertiser
13-07-2025
- Business
- The Advertiser
All signs point to jobs market holding firm in new data
Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3.
Perth Now
13-07-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
All signs point to jobs market holding firm in new data
The unusual resilience of Australia's jobs market is expected to continue in fresh data due out this week. Despite expectations unemployment will rise over the course of 2025, forward indicators point to more jobs growth ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' labour force release on Thursday. Economists predict the figures to show the unemployment rate held at a relatively low 4.1 per cent in June, while about 20,000 jobs are tipped to have been added to the economy. NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, still expects the jobless rate to rise to 4.4 per cent by year end but signs point to a labour market still in rude health. The bank's monthly business survey, released last week, showed business conditions spiked nine index points while ANZ-Indeed job ads climbed to a 12-month high. Despite the Reserve Bank surprising economists and traders by leaving rates on hold on Tuesday, Mr Spence does not expect a major negative impact on the economy, given three more cuts are still priced in by early next year. "I think the focus for the RBA will be ensuring the labour market remains healthy going forward," he told AAP. "The timing of cuts is not super important. It's more about where do they end up." Household spending has recovered slower than expected in the first half of 2025, as global uncertainty weighed on consumers and set back the handover from public to private demand as the main driver of economic growth. Further cuts towards what the central bank sees as a more neutral cash rate will be needed to support consumption, Mr Spence said. Another insight into household confidence levels will be revealed in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment report on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ABS will release building activity data for the March quarter. The number of dwellings that began construction in the last three months of the year fell 4.4 per cent to just under 42,000, well below the 60,000 a quarter needed to reach the national housing accord target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. After trending upwards through the second half of 2024, building approvals have flatlined since January. Wall Street investors meanwhile appear to have gone cold on US trade policy, with Meta Platforms weighing on the S&P 500 after Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The president has ramped up his tariff assault, saying the US will impose a 35 per cent tariff on Canadian imports next month and plans are afoot to impose blanket tariffs of 15 per cent or 20 per cent on most other trading partners. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points, the Nasdaq was down 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points. Australian share futures dropped 13 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 6,847. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index on Friday finished down 9.1 points, or 0.11 per cent, to 8,580.1, while the broader All Ordinaries dipped 6.4 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 8,820.3.
West Australian
28-06-2025
- West Australian
Leaving Violence Program made permanent as trial helps 100,000 people flee intimate partner violence
A trial program that has helped more than 100,000 people leave violent partners will become a permanent fixture from Tuesday. The Leaving Violence Program will give victim-survivors access to up to $5000 in financial support, and will be available to those who are planning to leave or have recently left a violent intimate partner relationship. It builds on the success of the Federal Government's two-year Escaping Violence Payment trial, which saw more than 100,000 people access the payment. 'We want women fleeing violence to know that financial support is available,' Social Services Minister Tanya Plibersek said. One of many who accessed the trial was a woman who fled a former relationship after noticing behaviours she described as becoming progressively more controlling. She fled her ex-partner after he assaulted her, and then threatened to kill her if she went to the police, driving to a new city in the middle of the night with her cat. Fearing for her safety, the woman slept in her car for several days. It wasn't until she was dropping her cat off to a carer that she was told about the EVP trial. Her application was accepted. Once engaged with the service, the woman was supported in seeking help from her GP, finding new accommodation and managing her finances with assistance of the payment. The trial has helped tens of thousands of other women secure accommodation, pay rent, buy food and other household goods, as well as school uniforms and supplies. Ms Plibersek said making the program permanent will help women feel supported to safely leave violent relationships. 'People often ask, 'Why doesn't she leave?' What we should ask is, 'Where would she go?' and 'What help is available?',' Ms Plibersek said. Economic insecurity is a key barrier to people leaving violent partners. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' 2021-22 Personal Safety Survey estimates more than a quarter of Australian women have experienced violence, emotional abuse or economic abuse by a cohabiting partner. Of those women, almost one in five experienced economic abuse. The new National Partnership Agreement on Family, Domestic and Sexual Violence Responses 2025 will also begin on Tuesday. Delivered with State and Territory governments, the renewed partnership will deliver more than $700 million in new, matched investments from the Commonwealth, States and Territories. 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) MensLine Australia 1300 789 978
Herald Sun
28-05-2025
- Business
- Herald Sun
Inflation, Interest rates: Blow for rate cut hopes as CPI higher than expected
Hopes of back-to-back rate cuts slid on Wednesday after inflation data came in higher than the previous month despite April usually being a month for price hikes. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' April inflation print shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation, which the Reserve Bank uses to measure Australia's inflation rate, came in hotter than expected. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel rose 2.8 per cent in the 12 months to April compared with a 2.6 per cent rise in the 12 months to March. Australia's overall CPI indicator – including volatile items – came in at 2.4 per cent but again was higher than market forecasts of 2.3 per cent year-on-year. Betashare chief economist David Bassanese said Wednesday's inflation reading was only 'mildly disappointing' but ruled out a July rate cut. 'With concerns over US tariff policy easing in recent weeks, and the all-important June quarter CPI report due in late July, it was always more likely that the RBA would hold off cutting interest rates until August – barring an economic emergency,' he said. High rental prices added to Australia's inflation rate. Picture: NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw The Reserve Bank of Australia started its rate-cutting cycle in February before pausing in April and reducing rates again in May. The cash rate has gone from 4.35 per cent at the start of the year to 3.85 per cent. Mr Bassanese said he expected the RBA to continue its rate-cutting cycle, but follow the quarterly data, which is the pattern set so far by the central bank. 'Given easing housing and labour cost pressures, I still anticipate further declines in underlying inflation such that the RBA is still likely to cut rates at least twice further this year – albeit not as early as July,' he said. 'My base case remains that the RBA will cut rates in August and November, directly following the next two quarterly CPI reports – assuming these reports confirm an easing in annual underlying inflation to the midpoint of the RBA's 2-3 per cent target band.' The largest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and recreation and culture, during the busy Easter and Anzac Day weekends. While annual food inflation eased in most categories, a spike in the price of eggs, which were up 18.6 per cent in the past 12-months due to bird flu outbreaks impacting supply, helped drive the category as a whole higher. Meanwhile housing inflation continued its up tick coming in at 2.2 per cent for the month of April up from 1.8 per cent in March. Rents rose 5.0 per cent in the 12 months to April following a 5.2 per cent rise in the 12 months to March. Despite the jump in rental costs, it is the lowest annual growth in rental prices since February 2023, consistent with rising vacancy rates across most capital cities. Electricity prices fell 6.5 per cent in the year to April, easing from a 9.6 per cent drop in March, as government rebates continued to help lower household costs. Originally published as Inflation read sours back-to-back rate cuts
West Australian
28-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Inflation read sours back-to-back rate cuts
Hopes of back-to-back rate cuts slid on Wednesday after inflation data came in higher than the previous month, despite April usually being a month for price hikes. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' April inflation print shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation, which the Reserve Bank uses to measure Australia's inflation rate, came in hotter than expected. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel measure rose 2.8 per cent in the 12 months to April, compared to a 2.6 per cent rise in the 12 months to March. Australia's overall CPI indicator – including volatile items - came in at 2.4 per cent, but again was higher than market forecasts of 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The largest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and recreation and culture, during the busy Easter and Anzac Day weekends. NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent says travel is expected to be a key support in April as it is usually a seasonally strong month for the category, and the month includes Easter and ANZAC long weekends. Elsewhere, health insurance premium increases are measured in April and were a little higher than a year ago, while fuel prices fell in the month, and there may be some additional unwind of Queensland electricity subsidies, according to Mr Nugent.
