Latest news with #AustralianConferenceofEconomists
West Australian
a day ago
- Business
- West Australian
Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser says Australian economics needs a new golden age
Australia needs another economic golden age to succeed in a world that is ditching free trade and pursuing the energy transition, Reserve Bank deputy boss Andrew Hauser has said. Mr Hauser spoke amid fresh international trade tension as US President Donald Trump once again changed his mind on tariffs overnight, proposing fresh taxes on copper and medicines. The growing move away from free trade will be a threat to Australia, which has generated enormous wealth through export industries. More than 26 cents of each dollar earned in the country is created by selling products overseas. 'The tectonic plates of the global economic system are once more in flux, as free trade is rolled back; geopolitical alliances shift; climate change accelerates; and productivity growth slows to a crawl in most developed countries,' he said in a speech to mark the 100th anniversary of the Economics Society of Australia. 'Simply coping with such changes will take skill. 'Turning them to Australia's advantage, identifying and exploiting new trading structures and sources of growth, will require rich new thinking from Australian academia.' Top challenges would be developing the path from traditional resources to new economy minerals, and judging how changing trade patterns would impact exports, jobs, inflation and investment. Mr Hauser said the country had thrived through earlier threats thanks to two golden ages of economic research. That was the rebuild after the Great Depression and World War Two, and the embrace of free markets following the stagnation of the 1970s. It also led to 25 years without a recession following an episode in the early 1990s. Mr Hauser told economists they would need to pull off a hat trick. 'The past century has been an extraordinary story — of world-leading thinking, deployed by the country's best academic minds, working hand-in-hand with policymakers, helping to pull the economy from the jaws of global turmoil and setting it on the path to prosperity,' he told the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney. 'So the killer question is this: can Australian macroeconomic thinking do it again, as the world economy is once more in flux?'
West Australian
a day ago
- Business
- West Australian
‘Unprecedented': The challenges Australian economists must solve
Australia needs new economic research to tackle the rolling challenges of trade tariffs, productivity slowdowns and climate change or risk living standards. In a speech to mark the 100th anniversary of the Economics Society of Australia as part of the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney, Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser pointed to the challenges facing the economy. Mr Hauser called the current issues 'unprecedented' but pointed to the lessons of the past in helping Australia solve them. 'Indeed Australian macroeconomic research has pulled that trick off twice,' he said. 'First, powering the ideas that lifted the country out of the Great Depression to flourish after the Second World War. 'And, second, helping to design a reform program that rescued the country from the slump of the 1970s, and led to more than a quarter century of recession-free growth. 'Two Golden Ages, marshalling thought into action.' Mr Hauser alluded to US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which has now seen 14 countries receive letters dictating new tariff rates. These include some of Australia's major trading partners, Japan and South Korea. ' … the tectonic plates of the global economic system are once more in flux, as free trade is rolled back; geopolitical alliances shift; climate change accelerates; and productivity growth slows to a crawl in most developed countries,' he said. Earlier this week, the Productivity Commission said Australia could be a winner from the trade tariffs directly, although it warned the second order impacts of a trade war could hurt Australian living standards. Productivity Commission deputy chair Alex Robson said the ensuing global uncertainty could 'affect living standards in Australia and around the world'. 'Uncertainty is a handbrake on investment – when businesses are uncertain about the future, they are less likely to invest,' Dr Robson said. 'Further retaliatory escalation could spiral into a broader trade war, which would bring serious consequences for Australia and the world.' Mr Hauser also pointed to Australia's falling productivity as a key risk to living standards. 'One of the most profound issues of our time is how to reverse the productivity slowdown,' he said. 'Important work is underway on this topic in the public sector, some of it in conjunction with academia: for example, researchers at the Productivity Commission, Treasury and RBA have analysed the causes of the productivity slowdown, its links to competition, innovation and dynamism, and the implications for the wider economy.' He said economics will need to go for the 'hat trick' with Australian academics helping to drive the next leg of economic growth. Mr Hauser's speech follows a cautious RBA monetary board holding the official cash rate at 3.85 per cent following its July meeting, with the shock move defying expert commentators and predictions from the money markets. Australia's Cash Rate 2022 The board voted 6-3 in favour of the hold but Ms Bullock, fronting the media after the 2.30pm decision, said the votes were 'unattributed' and declined repeatedly to reveal her position. Prior to Tuesday's announcement, the money market had placed a 92 per cent chance on a rate cut off the back of weaker-than-expected economic data. Mortgage holders will now have to wait until August at the earliest to get further interest rate relief. bRight Agent co-founder Aaron Scott called the surprise hold a 'cruel blow' for millions of Australian homeowners. 'Despite the fact that a July cut would not have been enough to give most mortgage holders a meaningful reprieve, it would have been welcome by the millions of Aussies who are holding out for more cost-of-living relief,' he said.
Perth Now
a day ago
- Business
- Perth Now
Australia must ‘go for hat-trick' on economy
Australia needs new economic research to tackle the rolling challenges of trade tariffs, productivity slowdowns and climate change or risk living standards. In a speech to mark the 100th anniversary of the Economics Society of Australia as part of the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney, Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser pointed to the challenges facing the economy. Mr Hauser called the current issues 'unprecedented' but pointed to the lessons of the past in helping Australia solve them. 'Indeed Australian macroeconomic research has pulled that trick off twice,' he said. 'First, powering the ideas that lifted the country out of the Great Depression to flourish after the Second World War. 'And, second, helping to design a reform program that rescued the country from the slump of the 1970s, and led to more than a quarter century of recession-free growth. RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser warns of the importance of economists puling off a trick for a third time. NewsWire / Max Mason-Hubers Credit: News Corp Australia 'Two Golden Ages, marshalling thought into action.' Mr Hauser alluded to US President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which has now seen 14 countries receive letters dictating new tariff rates. These include some of Australia's major trading partners, Japan and South Korea. ' … the tectonic plates of the global economic system are once more in flux, as free trade is rolled back; geopolitical alliances shift; climate change accelerates; and productivity growth slows to a crawl in most developed countries,' he said. Earlier this week, the Productivity Commission said Australia could be a winner from the trade tariffs directly, although it warned the second order impacts of a trade war could hurt Australian living standards. Productivity Commission deputy chair Alex Robson said the ensuing global uncertainty could 'affect living standards in Australia and around the world'. 'Uncertainty is a handbrake on investment – when businesses are uncertain about the future, they are less likely to invest,' Dr Robson said. 'Further retaliatory escalation could spiral into a broader trade war, which would bring serious consequences for Australia and the world.' Mr Hauser also pointed to Australia's falling productivity as a key risk to living standards. Australia needs to lift its productivity. NewsWire / John Appleyard Credit: News Corp Australia 'One of the most profound issues of our time is how to reverse the productivity slowdown,' he said. 'Important work is underway on this topic in the public sector, some of it in conjunction with academia: for example, researchers at the Productivity Commission, Treasury and RBA have analysed the causes of the productivity slowdown, its links to competition, innovation and dynamism, and the implications for the wider economy.' He said economics will need to go for the 'hat trick' with Australian academics helping to drive the next leg of economic growth. Mr Hauser's speech follows a cautious RBA monetary board holding the official cash rate at 3.85 per cent following its July meeting, with the shock move defying expert commentators and predictions from the money markets. Australia's Cash Rate 2022 The board voted 6-3 in favour of the hold but Ms Bullock, fronting the media after the 2.30pm decision, said the votes were 'unattributed' and declined repeatedly to reveal her position. Prior to Tuesday's announcement, the money market had placed a 92 per cent chance on a rate cut off the back of weaker-than-expected economic data. Mortgage holders will now have to wait until August at the earliest to get further interest rate relief. bRight Agent co-founder Aaron Scott called the surprise hold a 'cruel blow' for millions of Australian homeowners. 'Despite the fact that a July cut would not have been enough to give most mortgage holders a meaningful reprieve, it would have been welcome by the millions of Aussies who are holding out for more cost-of-living relief,' he said.
The Advertiser
a day ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
Disappointment as Reserve Bank leaves rates on hold
From struggling retailers to squeezed mortgage holders, the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise call to leave interest rates on hold has left many disappointed. Markets and economists were broadly in favour of a 25 basis point cut in July but the central bank board has decided to wait for more evidence on inflation before considering lowering the cash rate further. Interest rates have already been cut twice this year as inflation tracks lower and the central bank's focus switches to growth prospects and job market resilience. RBA governor Michele Bullock acknowledged households with mortgages would have been "very keen" for another interest rate cut to ease budget pressure. "'I'm also really conscious that we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again," she said. The Australian Retailers Association described Tuesday's decision as a "missed opportunity" to improve the outlook of a sector employing one-in-ten Australians. "Weak consumer spending and high business costs continue to put pressure on retailers," ARA chief executive Chris Rodwell said. Real Estate Institute of Australia president Leanne Pilkington said the July call would leave borrowing costs high for first home buyers. "We understand the RBA's priority is returning inflation to its target band but this needs to be balanced against the risk of further dampening housing demand and locking first home buyers out of the market," she said. Speaking to media after the two-day cash rate meeting, Ms Bullock sympathised with young people hoping to buy but said interest rates were not the only roadblock. "In fact, I've heard criticisms that we shouldn't lower interest rates because housing prices will go up," she said. "So we can't win really." The governor said the question of housing prices was largely for governments to address. Further insights into the interest rate decision could be revealed in a public speech from deputy governor Andrew Hauser on Wednesday at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney. From struggling retailers to squeezed mortgage holders, the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise call to leave interest rates on hold has left many disappointed. Markets and economists were broadly in favour of a 25 basis point cut in July but the central bank board has decided to wait for more evidence on inflation before considering lowering the cash rate further. Interest rates have already been cut twice this year as inflation tracks lower and the central bank's focus switches to growth prospects and job market resilience. RBA governor Michele Bullock acknowledged households with mortgages would have been "very keen" for another interest rate cut to ease budget pressure. "'I'm also really conscious that we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again," she said. The Australian Retailers Association described Tuesday's decision as a "missed opportunity" to improve the outlook of a sector employing one-in-ten Australians. "Weak consumer spending and high business costs continue to put pressure on retailers," ARA chief executive Chris Rodwell said. Real Estate Institute of Australia president Leanne Pilkington said the July call would leave borrowing costs high for first home buyers. "We understand the RBA's priority is returning inflation to its target band but this needs to be balanced against the risk of further dampening housing demand and locking first home buyers out of the market," she said. Speaking to media after the two-day cash rate meeting, Ms Bullock sympathised with young people hoping to buy but said interest rates were not the only roadblock. "In fact, I've heard criticisms that we shouldn't lower interest rates because housing prices will go up," she said. "So we can't win really." The governor said the question of housing prices was largely for governments to address. Further insights into the interest rate decision could be revealed in a public speech from deputy governor Andrew Hauser on Wednesday at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney. From struggling retailers to squeezed mortgage holders, the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise call to leave interest rates on hold has left many disappointed. Markets and economists were broadly in favour of a 25 basis point cut in July but the central bank board has decided to wait for more evidence on inflation before considering lowering the cash rate further. Interest rates have already been cut twice this year as inflation tracks lower and the central bank's focus switches to growth prospects and job market resilience. RBA governor Michele Bullock acknowledged households with mortgages would have been "very keen" for another interest rate cut to ease budget pressure. "'I'm also really conscious that we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again," she said. The Australian Retailers Association described Tuesday's decision as a "missed opportunity" to improve the outlook of a sector employing one-in-ten Australians. "Weak consumer spending and high business costs continue to put pressure on retailers," ARA chief executive Chris Rodwell said. Real Estate Institute of Australia president Leanne Pilkington said the July call would leave borrowing costs high for first home buyers. "We understand the RBA's priority is returning inflation to its target band but this needs to be balanced against the risk of further dampening housing demand and locking first home buyers out of the market," she said. Speaking to media after the two-day cash rate meeting, Ms Bullock sympathised with young people hoping to buy but said interest rates were not the only roadblock. "In fact, I've heard criticisms that we shouldn't lower interest rates because housing prices will go up," she said. "So we can't win really." The governor said the question of housing prices was largely for governments to address. Further insights into the interest rate decision could be revealed in a public speech from deputy governor Andrew Hauser on Wednesday at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney. From struggling retailers to squeezed mortgage holders, the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise call to leave interest rates on hold has left many disappointed. Markets and economists were broadly in favour of a 25 basis point cut in July but the central bank board has decided to wait for more evidence on inflation before considering lowering the cash rate further. Interest rates have already been cut twice this year as inflation tracks lower and the central bank's focus switches to growth prospects and job market resilience. RBA governor Michele Bullock acknowledged households with mortgages would have been "very keen" for another interest rate cut to ease budget pressure. "'I'm also really conscious that we don't want to end up having to fight inflation again," she said. The Australian Retailers Association described Tuesday's decision as a "missed opportunity" to improve the outlook of a sector employing one-in-ten Australians. "Weak consumer spending and high business costs continue to put pressure on retailers," ARA chief executive Chris Rodwell said. Real Estate Institute of Australia president Leanne Pilkington said the July call would leave borrowing costs high for first home buyers. "We understand the RBA's priority is returning inflation to its target band but this needs to be balanced against the risk of further dampening housing demand and locking first home buyers out of the market," she said. Speaking to media after the two-day cash rate meeting, Ms Bullock sympathised with young people hoping to buy but said interest rates were not the only roadblock. "In fact, I've heard criticisms that we shouldn't lower interest rates because housing prices will go up," she said. "So we can't win really." The governor said the question of housing prices was largely for governments to address. Further insights into the interest rate decision could be revealed in a public speech from deputy governor Andrew Hauser on Wednesday at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney.
