Latest news with #AxisOfResistance
South China Morning Post
5 days ago
- Politics
- South China Morning Post
Battered Iran faces uncertain future after 12-day war with Israel
The bombing has quieted in Iran's 12-day conflict with Israel. Now its battered theocracy and 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must regroup and rebuild in a changed landscape. Israeli air strikes decimated the upper ranks of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guard and depleted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israeli missiles and American bunker buster bombs damaged the nuclear programme – though how much remains disputed. Khamenei went into deep isolation in an undisclosed location, appearing only twice in videos as the Israelis had free rein over the country's skies. Iran's self-described 'Axis of Resistance', a group of allied countries and militias in the Middle East, has been mauled by the Israelis since Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack. Foreign support Tehran may have expected from China and Russia never materialised. At home, old problems remain, particularly an economy wrecked by international sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. 'Iran's leadership has been dealt a heavy blow and will be conscious of preserving the ceasefire, which gives the regime breathing room and allows space to focus on internal security and reconstruction,' the Eurasia Group said in an analysis Wednesday. The damaged Tehran headquarters of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. Photo: AP One thing Israel's campaign showed was how much its intelligence agencies have infiltrated Iran – particularly its swift pinpointing of military and Guard commanders and top nuclear scientists for strikes.
Time of India
5 days ago
- Politics
- Time of India
Yemen's Houthis Launch Drone Attack At Israel; IDF Says UAV Downed Outside Israeli Airspace
A drone launched from Yemen was intercepted before entering Israeli airspace, according to Israeli military sources and local media. The aircraft did not trigger warning sirens, but its trajectory was confirmed to be directed at Israel. The incident came as Yemeni Houthi officials reaffirmed their support for Gaza, promising continued military operations. In a social media post, Houthi political leader Mohammed al-Bukhaiti stated that force is the only language understood by Israel and the US. The Houthis have launched repeated attacks since October in alignment with what they call regional resistance. Despite recent ceasefire claims, the group signals no intention of halting strikes.#DroneStrike #MiddleEastTensions #YemenIsrael #AirspaceThreat #RedSeaConflict #Houthis #GazaSolidarity #IsraelDefense #NoCeasefire #AxisOfResistance
The Independent
6 days ago
- Politics
- The Independent
A battered Iran faces an uncertain future after its grinding war with Israel
The bombing has quieted in Iran's 12-day conflict with Israel. Now its battered theocracy and 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei must regroup and rebuild in a changed landscape. Israeli airstrikes decimated the upper ranks of Iran 's powerful Revolutionary Guard and depleted its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Israeli missiles and American bunker buster bombs damaged the nuclear program — though how much remains disputed. Khamenei went into deep isolation in an undisclosed location, appearing only twice in videos as the Israelis had free rein over the country's skies. Iran's self-described 'Axis of Resistance,' a group of allied countries and militias in the Mideast, has been mauled by the Israelis since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack. Foreign support Tehran may have expected from China and Russia never materialized. At home, old problems remain, particularly an economy wrecked by international sanctions, corruption and mismanagement. 'Iran's leadership has been dealt a heavy blow and will be conscious of preserving the ceasefire, which gives the regime breathing room and allows space to focus on internal security and reconstruction,' the Eurasia Group said in an analysis Wednesday. Shoring up loyalty One thing Israel's campaign showed was how much its intelligence agencies have infiltrated Iran — particularly its swift pinpointing of military and Guard commanders and top nuclear scientists for strikes. The No. 1 task for Khamenei may be to root out any suspected disloyalty in the ranks. 'There must be some sort of purge. But who will implement it? That is the question,' said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. 'This level of distrust that apparently exists now is going to paralyze any effective planning or security overhaul,' he said. In that atmosphere, rebuilding Iran's military, particularly its Revolutionary Guard, will be a challenge. But the forces have a deep bench of officers. One top survivor of the war, Gen. Esmail Qaani, in charge of the Guard's expeditionary Quds Force, was seen in videos of a pro-government demonstration in Tehran on Tuesday. On the civilian side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi found himself empowered to the level of almost a de facto prime minister, publishing announcements on even the ceasefire while others in Tehran remained silent. Khamenei also has to rethink the security policy he wove together over the past two decades. The 'Axis of Resistance" alliances allowed Iran to project its power across the Mideast but also was seen as a defensive buffer, intended to keep conflict away from Iranian borders. That buffer has now been shown to be a failure. Race for a bomb? After Israel's campaign exposed Iran's vulnerabilities, Khamenei might conclude that his country can only protect itself by turning its nuclear capability into an actual bomb, as North Korea did. Iran has always said its nuclear program is peaceful. But it is the only non-nuclear armed state to have enriched uranium to 60%, a short step from weapons-grade. Many observers believe Khamenei opposed taking that step to a weapon to avoid a war, Azizi said. But now voices within the system demanding a bomb are likely growing, he said. 'We might have already passed that threshold for Khamenei's viewpoint to change.' Still, any drive for a nuclear weapon would be a major gamble. The extent of damage from the U.S. and Israeli barrages remains unclear, but Iran certainly needs to rebuild its nuclear facilities and centrifuge infrastructure, whether that takes months or years. And it would have to do all that in extreme secrecy, concealed from Israeli and U.S. intelligence. Were Israel to catch wind, it could resume strikes. Khamenei could also take the opposite path, resuming talks with the United States in hopes of winning sanctions relief. U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff, appearing Tuesday night on Fox News, called the chance for future negotiations 'promising.' 'We're already talking to each other,' he said. 'We are hopeful we can have a long-term peace agreement that resurrects Iran.' Challenges at home Many also fear an intensified crackdown on dissent, as a leadership battered by war regroups amid mounting problems at home. Iran's frail economy has been wrecked by international sanctions, corruption and years of mismanagement. For months, the ailing power grid has been plagued by hourslong, rolling blackouts. The flight of much of Tehran's population during the war temporarily eased the strain. But as they return, even longer blackouts are likely to come roaring back during the worst of the summer months, disrupting everything from bakeries to factories. The war also shut down Tehran's stock market and currency exchange shops, pausing a collapse of Iran's riyal currency. Back in 2015 when Iran reached its nuclear deal with world powers, the rial traded at 32,000 to $1. Today, it is near 1 million rials to the dollar. Once businesses reopen in force, the plunge could resume. The economy has sparked unrest in the past. After state-set gasoline prices rose in 2019, protests spread across some 100 cities and towns, with gas stations and banks burned down. In the ensuing crackdown, at least 321 people were killed and thousands detained, according to Amnesty International. Then there's the 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who had been detained by security forces allegedly over not wearing her headscarf, or hijab, to their liking. A monthslong crackdown killed more than 500 people and saw over 22,000 detained. Many women in Tehran still refuse to wear the hijab. But activists worry the war will trigger new restrictions. In an open letter last weekend, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi wrote that 'the Islamic Republic is a religious, authoritarian, and misogynistic regime — incapable of reform and systematically violating the fundamental rights of the Iranian people.' But she called for a ceasefire in the war 'because I firmly believe that democracy and peace will not emerge from the dark and terrifying corridors of war and violence.' Questions persist over Khamenei's successor Despite Israel's talk of eliminating him, Khamenei survived this confrontation. What comes after him remains unknown. The war could fuel a change in the Islamic Republic itself, pushing more towards a military-style rule. Under the Islamic Republic, leading Shiite clerics stand at the top of the hierarchy, drawing the lines to which the civilian government, the military and intelligence and security establishment must submit. As supreme leader, Khamenei symbolizes that clerical power. A panel of Shiite clerics is tasked with choosing one of their own as his successor. Several names have been touted, including Khamenei's son and the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Some candidates are seen as more hard-line, some more open to reform. Whoever is chosen, military and Guard commanders may more than ever be the power behind the robes. 'People have been talking of a transition from clergy-dominated Islamic Republic to a military-dominated Islamic Republic,' Azizi said. 'This war has made that scenario more plausible. … The next government will be more military-security oriented.' ___ Keath reported from Cairo. ___ EDITOR'S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, the news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and wider world since joining the AP in 2006. Lee Keath, the chief editor for feature stories in the Middle East for the AP, has reported from Cairo since 2005.
Wall Street Journal
7 days ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
U.S. Credibility Returns to the Middle East
President Trump's dramatic weekend strike may or may not have obliterated Iran's nuclear potential, but it has restored U.S. deterrence and credibility. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leader of a theocracy that held the Mideast in a grip of terror for nearly half a century, is cowering in an underground bunker. He fears even to use a cellphone lest Israel's superior intelligence and air power combine to eliminate him along with his nation's nuclear ambitions. While Israel obviously is the big winner from the war it launched against Iran just over a week ago, Saudi Arabia stands to emerge as the other major regional beneficiary. Gone is Iran's 'Axis of Resistance,' which encircled the region and tormented Saudi Arabia. Of all the regimes in the Middle East, only Israel, the 'little Satan,' and Saudi Arabia, the 'small and puny Satan,' were earmarked for elimination. Iran coveted not only Saudi Arabia's oil but, more important, its guardianship of Islam's two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina.
The Independent
22-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Why some key Tehran allies have stayed out of the Israel-Iran conflict
Hezbollah has long been considered Iran's first line of defense in case of a war with Israel. But since Israel launched its massive barrage against Iran, triggering the ongoing Israel-Iran war, the Lebanese militant group has stayed out of the fray — even after the U.S. entered the conflict Sunday with strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. A network of powerful Iran-backed militias in Iraq has also remained mostly quiet. Domestic political concerns, as well as tough losses suffered in nearly two years of regional conflicts and upheavals, appear to have led these Iran allies to take a back seat in the latest round convulsing the region. 'Despite all the restraining factors, wild cards remain,' said Tamer Badawi, an associate fellow with the Germany-based think tank Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient. That's especially true after the U.S. stepped in with strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran. The 'Axis of Resistance' Hezbollah was formed with Iranian support in the early 1980s as a guerilla force fighting against Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon at the time. The militant group helped push Israel out of Lebanon and built its arsenal over the ensuing decades, becoming a powerful regional force and the centerpiece of a cluster of Iranian-backed factions and governments known as the ' Axis of Resistance.' The allies also include Iraqi Shiite militias and Yemen's Houthi rebels, as well as the Palestinian militant group Hamas. At one point, Hezbollah was believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the group's former leader, Hassan Nasrallah once boasted of having 100,000 fighters. Seeking to aid its ally Hamas in the aftermath of the Palestinian militants' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel and Israel's offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah began launching rockets across the border. That drew Israeli airstrikes and shelling, and the exchanges escalated into full-scale war last September. Israel inflicted heavy damage on Hezbollah, killing Nasrallah and other top leaders and destroying much of its arsenal, before a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire halted that conflict last November. Israel continues to occupy parts of southern Lebanon and to carry out near-daily airstrikes. For their part, the Iraqi militias occasionally struck bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, while Yemen's Houthis fired at vessels in the Red Sea, a crucial global trade route, and began targeting Israel. Keeping an ambiguous stance Hezbollah has condemned Israel's attacks but did not immediately comment on the U.S. strikes on Iran. Just days before the U.S. attack, Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem said in a statement that the group 'will act as we deem appropriate in the face of this brutal Israeli-American aggression.' Lebanese government officials have pressed the group to stay out of the conflict, saying that Lebanon cannot handle another damaging war, and U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, who visited Lebanon last week, said it would be a 'very bad decision' for Hezbollah to get involved. Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah militia — a separate group from Hezbollah — had said prior to the U.S. attack that it will directly target U.S. interests and bases spread throughout the region if Washington gets involved. The group has also remained silent since Sunday's strikes. The Houthis last month reached an agreement with Washington to stop attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea in exchange for the U.S. halting its strikes on Yemen, but the group threatened to resume its attacks if Washington entered the Iran-Israel war. In a statement on Sunday, the Houthis' political bureau described the U.S. attack on Iran as a 'grave escalation that poses a direct threat to regional and international security and peace." The Houthis did not immediately launch strikes. Reasons to stay on the sidelines Hezbollah was weakened by last year's fighting and after losing a major supply route for Iranian weapons with the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a key ally, in a lightning rebel offensive in December. 'Hezbollah has been degraded on the strategic level while cut off from supply chains in Syria,' said Andreas Krieg, a military analyst and associate professor at King's College London. Still, Qassem Qassir, a Lebanese analyst close to Hezbollah, said a role for the militant group in the Israel-Iran conflict should not be ruled out. 'The battle is still in its early stages," he said. "Even Iran hasn't bombed American bases (in response to the U.S. strikes), but rather bombed Israel.' He said that both the Houthis and the Iraqi militias "lack the strategic deep strike capability against Israel that Hezbollah once had." Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London, said Iraq's Iran-allied militias have all along tried to avoid pulling their country into a major conflict. Unlike Hezbollah, whose military wing has operated as a non-state actor in Lebanon — although its political wing is part of the government — the main Iraqi militias are members of a coalition of groups that are officially part of the state defense forces. 'Things in Iraq are good for them right now, they're connected to the state — they're benefitting politically, economically,' Mansour said. 'And also they've seen what's happened to Iran, to Hezbollah and they're concerned that Israel will turn on them as well.' Badawi said that for now, the armed groups may be lying low because 'Iran likely wants these groups to stay intact and operational.' 'But if Iran suffers insurmountable losses or if the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) is assassinated, those could act as triggers," he said.
