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Business Insider
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Just buy the dip: Brave investors have been rewarded during a turbulent first half of 2025
Buying stocks when the market is selling off is always a daunting prospect. On one hand, if you time it right and shares rally, you've bought at an attractive price. On the other hand, the market could just… keep falling. Luckily for brave dip-buyers in 2025, the former has been true. Despite stomach-churning volatility at the index and single-stock level, what's gone down has largely come back up. There's been a series of sharp drops this year that have all ultimately wound up as ideal buying opportunities. Fast-forward through all the madness and you have an S&P 500 cruising at record highs as the first half of 2025 winds down. Wild swings in the S&P 500 The most pronounced and sharp decline in US stocks this year — and therefore the best dip-buying opportunity — came after Liberation Day on April 2. The S&P 500 tanked 12% in a matter of days. But then it ended up recovering the whole drawdown within a month. At that point, the market was still down for the year, having been dragged lower by general tariff uncertainty for much of February and March. In the end, it was continued progress on the trade front that dug the S&P 500 out of its year-to-date hole. In early May, the US struck an initial deal with the UK, before agreeing a with China a couple weeks later to implement a 90-day pause. The most recent major development came last week when Trump said a deal had been reached with China, the same day of a new S&P 500 record high. Art Hogan, managing director and chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, partially attributes the rally off lows to immense retail-investor interest. "I think retail investors have been hardwired now to look at this market for significant pullbacks, big buying opportunities, and thus far, they've been proven correct," Hogan told BI. Data from Vanda Research supports the idea, showing that retail traders aggressively bought exposure to the S&P 500, as well as popular stocks Tesla and Nvidia (more on them later). One phenomenon that's also helped fuel dip-buying the year has been the so-called TACO trade, short for Trump Always Chickens Out. The idea is that any trade-policy-driven market sell-off will soon be reversed, because the president will backtrack on a policy proposal if investors rebel. But all of that was not enough to lift the S&P 500 to the new heights it's currently enjoying. The last leg higher has been driven by the positive geopolitical developments: an Israel-Iran ceasefire and the neutralization of Iranian nuclear assets by the US. Tesla's roller coaster ride Dip-buying success has also been on display at the single-stock level, particularly for ever-popular and particularly-volatile Tesla. The EV-maker's stock tumbled nearly 50% from highs around the time of Trump's inauguration through the start of March. The main driving forces were falling global vehicle sales and skepticism around CEO Elon Musk's involvement with the Trump administration. After bottoming on April 8, shortly after Liberation Day, the stock then embarked up a steep — albeit choppy-at-times — 63% recovery. Then Musk and Trump played out a bitter feud for the public, with the president threatening at one point to pull the Tesla CEO's government contracts. The stock fell 14% in a single day. Based on the recovery since, that was just another ideal dip-buying opportunity, as Musk said he'd be stepping away from government work. Sure, the stock is still down 21% year-to-date, but it's up more than 10% since the Musk-Trump dispute. Nvidia: From steep losses to record highs Not even the darling of the AI trade has been insulated from the volatility that's rocked markets this year. Nvidia started the year battling the rise of China's DeepSeek and its cheaper machine-learning model, which challenged long-held notions about how much money will be poured into AI. It experienced the biggest decline in company history on Jan. 27, falling 17% in a single session. But after bottoming out in early February, shares rallied as much as 20% heading into Nvidia's first-quarter earnings report. The company followed the trend of the market lower into April, amid concerns that Trump's proposed tariffs would slow economic growth, falling 33% to its year-to-date low. But it's pretty much been a straight ascent since, the perfect scenario for intrepid dip-buyers that kept the faith during a rocky first quarter. The company has most recently overtaken record highs yet again, and Wall Street can't get enough. One firm boosted its price target on the stock to $250, implying an eventual $6 trillion valuation.
Business Recorder
03-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
US stocks tread water on economic growth worries
WASHINGTON: Wall Street stocks were little changed early Tuesday following a cut to global growth forecasts, with the United States expected to be hit hard as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs weigh on the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was almost flat at 42,323.97, while the broad-based S&P 500 Index edged up 0.1 percent to 5,939.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.2 percent to 19,279.52. The world economy is set to grow by 2.9 percent in 2025 and 2026, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said Tuesday, cutting its forecasts from a previous report. Wall Street mixed after Trump's steel tariff threat The OECD also lowered its US growth forecast for this year, from 2.2 percent to 1.6 percent, and warned that 'substantial increases' in trade barriers are among the factors to impact growth if they persist. 'The general trend that is driving markets appears to be the creeping uncertainty over the path of tariffs and trade,' said Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management. 'We're more or less in a 'wait-and-see' mode about what news is delivered to us,' he added. Since returning to the presidency, Trump has imposed 10 percent tariffs on imports from most trading partners and threatened steeper rates – currently on hold – on dozens of economies. He has slapped levies on imports of steel and aluminum, which he plans to double this week, straining ties with partners including the European Union. The market movements come as investors await more details of potential trade deals between Washington and governments around the world, as they seek to avert higher duties. Looking ahead, traders are also eyeing official employment data for a gauge of how the world's biggest economy is holding up under Trump's policies. 'We'll likely start seeing jobs creation numbers that are lower than the average,' said Hogan.
Business Times
15-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US: Stocks end mostly up after mixed data
[NEW YORK] Wall Street stocks finished mostly higher on Thursday following mixed US economic data as markets await further announcement from Washington of trade deals. Data showed US retail sales were near-flat in the United States in April, while US wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell during the month. 'We're back into the vacuum where news about trade dominates everything,' said Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 0.7 per cent at 42,322.75. The broad-based S&P 500 gained 0.4 per cent to 5,916.93, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.2 per cent to 19,112.32. After tumbling in early April following President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff plan, stocks have been on the upswing in recent weeks as Trump has retreated from some of the most onerous levies while announcing a trade deal with Britain and a deescalation with China. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up But Hogan said markets are bracing themselves for a hit to inflation later in 2025 from the overall policy shift to higher tariffs. Among individual companies, UnitedHealth plunged more than 11 per cent after the Wall Street Journal reported the health giant faces a US criminal investigation for possible Medicare fraud. UnitedHealth said in a statement it had not been notified by the Justice Department of an investigation and criticised the 'deeply irresponsible' article. Walmart dipped 0.4 per cent as it warned of higher prices due to tariffs, saying the levies were still too high for the company to absorb without passing on to consumers. Dick's Sporting Goods dropped 14.6 per cent after announcing a deal to acquire Foot Locker for about US$2.4 billion. Foot Locker surged 85.7 per cent. AFP
Business Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US: Dow, S&P 500 edge lower ahead of China trade talks
[NEW YORK] The Dow and S&P 500 edged lower on Friday following a low-key session as markets awaited weekend US-China trade talks. US President Donald Trump said an 80 per cent tariff on China 'seems right' in a post on social media. The world's two biggest economies have imposed triple-digit levies on each other in recent weeks. Representatives from the two countries are scheduled to meet in Switzerland this weekend. Analysts do not expect a breakthrough but are hoping for deescalation in the trade war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 0.3 per cent at 41,249.38. The broad-based S&P 500 dipped 0.1 per cent to 5,659.91, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index was flat at 17,928.92. Stocks avoided major swings on Friday on a day with no major economic releases. 'If ever there was a wait and see Friday, this is it,' said Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management. 'It's all about our perceptions of how the trade war is going.' Among individual companies, Lyft shot up more than 28 per cent as it announced a new US$750 million share repurchase programme after reporting mixed earnings. But Expedia dropped 7.3 per cent as it flagged 'weaker than expected' travel demand in the United States, adding to worries about the company's outlook. AFP
Business Times
06-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
US: Stocks fall again ahead of Fed decision
[NEW YORK] Wall Street stocks fell again on Tuesday as markets await a Federal Reserve decision on interest rates while anticipating US trade deal breakthroughs that have yet to materialise. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told US President Donald Trump that his country was 'never for sale' at a White House meeting that underscored tensions after the United States imposed tariffs on Canada and other trading partners. The market 'seems to be disappointed over the fact that we're not hearing any trade deal news,' said Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth Management. Stocks had risen most of the last two weeks in anticipation of progress on the trade front. But major US indices spent the entire Tuesday session in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing down one per cent at 40,829,00. The broad-based S&P 500 declined 0.8 per cent to 5,606.91, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.9 per cent to 17,689.66. Data released on Tuesday showed the overall trade deficit for the United States jumped 14.0 per cent to US$140.5 billion for March, a record for a month. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Pharmaceutical and biotech stocks took a beating due to the appointment of oncologist Vinay Prasad to a top post at the US Food and Drug Administration. Prasad has been an outspoken critic of the agency's prior approach to Covid-19 vaccines and other key decisions. Merck and Pfizer both fell more than four per cent while Moderna sank more than 12 per cent. Ford rose 2.7 per cent after reporting a 65 per cent drop in profits that nonetheless topped estimates. The carmaker suspended its forecast amid tariff uncertainty. Mattel climbed 2.8 per cent as it also suspended its outlook, citing uncertainty due to the 'volatile macro-economic environment and evolving US tariff landscape.' Markets are looking ahead to Wednesday's Fed decision. The US central bank is widely expected to pause again on interest rate changes and wait for clarity on the economic impact of Trump's tariff rollout. Trump has aggressively argued the Fed should resume interest rate cuts. AFP
