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Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide
Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Economic Times

time5 days ago

  • Automotive
  • Economic Times

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

IANS Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of US President Donald Trump's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows.A gauge of stocks of US carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all US trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the US auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases.A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the US — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local picture is gloomier in Europe. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the US in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the US to help a trade contrast to the US sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low.'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.'A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the US. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the US and China.'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers.'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week.

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide
Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Time of India

time5 days ago

  • Automotive
  • Time of India

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of US President Donald Trump 's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows. A gauge of stocks of US carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% advance. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next week. Add to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services . 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' Live Events General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. 'Fluid Situation' Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all US trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the US auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in September. The overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases. A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the US — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local manufacturing. The picture is gloomier in Europe. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the US in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the US to help a trade deal. In contrast to the US sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low. 'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.' 'Lost Cause' A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the US. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the US and China. 'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this month. The rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure buyers. For Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that expense. In Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers. 'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week.

Carmakers Face Uncertainty as Tariffs and Earnings Collide
Carmakers Face Uncertainty as Tariffs and Earnings Collide

Yahoo

time6 days ago

  • Automotive
  • Yahoo

Carmakers Face Uncertainty as Tariffs and Earnings Collide

(Bloomberg) -- Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of US President Donald Trump's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows. The Dutch Intersection Is Coming to Save Your Life Advocates Fear US Agents Are Using 'Wellness Checks' on Children as a Prelude to Arrests Mumbai Facelift Is Inspired by 200-Year-Old New York Blueprint LA Homelessness Drops for Second Year Manhattan, Chicago Murder Rates Drop in 2025, Officials Say A gauge of stocks of US carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% advance. Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next week. Add to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. 'Fluid Situation' Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all US trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the US auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in September. The overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases. A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the US — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local manufacturing. The picture is gloomier in Europe. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the US in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the US to help a trade deal. In contrast to the US sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low. 'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.' 'Lost Cause' A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the US. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the US and China. 'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this month. The rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure buyers. For Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that expense. In Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers. 'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week. What the Tough Job Market for New College Grads Says About the Economy How Starbucks' CEO Plans to Tame the Rush-Hour Free-for-All Godzilla Conquered Japan. Now Its Owner Plots a Global Takeover A Rebel Army Is Building a Rare-Earth Empire on China's Border Why Access to Running Water Is a Luxury in Wealthy US Cities ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide
Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Los Angeles Times

time6 days ago

  • Automotive
  • Los Angeles Times

Carmakers face uncertainty as tariffs and earnings collide

Investors in auto firms, which sit squarely in the bullseye of President Donald Trump's trade war, are about to find out if earnings back up the sector's scorching rebound from this year's lows. A gauge of stocks of U.S. carmakers and suppliers has soared more than 40% from its tariff-fueled April depths, handily beating the S&P 500 Index's 26% gain. Meanwhile, the MSCI World Auto and Components Index has climbed 30% in that period, outpacing the MSCI World Index's 25% advance. Investors dove into the beaten-down shares during the furious rally unleashed when Trump paused most of his aggressive levies in April. But the recovery, which has since stalled out, creates a conundrum: While the shares are now much more costly, the tariff outlook hasn't grown much clearer as the sector gets ready to announce quarterly profits starting next week. Add to that headwinds around the affordability of new vehicles, rising global competition from Chinese brands like BYD Co., and China's efforts to regulate the sector, and some analysts are wary of making broad bets on the industry at the moment. 'Auto stocks have bounced back, but the setup into earnings is murky,' said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services. 'This is a market for selectivity, not broad exposure.' General Motors Co., Tesla Inc. and Volkswagen AG release earnings next week, with Ford Motor Co., Stellantis NV, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG coming the week after. Japan's Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No. 1 carmaker, and China's Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. are due to report next month. Most companies are poised to announce numbers for the three months through June — after a stretch in which Trump unveiled a slew of tariffs on auto imports, goods from Mexico and Canada, steel and aluminum and nearly all U.S. trading partners. Many of the measures have been paused, but this month brought a fresh blow as Trump announced tariffs on copper and unleashed ultimatums on counterparts including Japan, Brazil, the European Union and Mexico. The impact of the potential tariff regime on automakers, which have a sprawling global supply chain and are uniquely exposed to the risk, is a key theme investors and analysts will be watching. 'It is a fluid situation still and investors were not really prepared for the latest round of tariffs that were announced earlier this month,' said Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA Research. He has a hold-equivalent rating on the U.S. auto sector, citing valuations and tariff-related uncertainty among other reasons. Wall Street is already lowering expectations for some of the biggest carmakers. Analysts' second-quarter average profit estimate for GM has dropped 18% over the past six months and Ford's has sunk 30%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. For EV giant Tesla it's declined 47% over the same period, with a potential hurdle looming as a federal tax credit for consumer purchases of electric vehicles ends in September. The overarching question is how companies are handling tariff-triggered cost increases. A Bank of Japan report this month showed the country's automakers slashed prices of exports to the U.S. — a sign they were sacrificing profits to stay competitive. Industry analysts expect Toyota to fare better than its domestic peers given its sizable profits, and see Honda Motor Co. benefiting from extensive local manufacturing. Volkswagen's sales dropped 16% in the U.S. in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from the 4.4% growth in the first three months of the year before the new levies took effect. This week, Sweden's Volvo Car AB said it was taking an impairment charge of about $1.2 billion due to delays to some electric models and climbing tariff costs. Its CEO on Thursday urged the EU to cut tariffs on the U.S. to help a trade deal. In contrast to the U.S. sector's performance, the Stoxx 600 Automobiles and Parts gauge of European producers has trailed the rebound in the region's broader Stoxx 600 from an April low. 'The European mass-market players will be fighting for their piece of a pie in a pie that is pretty much stable, or unchanging, over the medium- to longer-term, with more competitors,' said Rella Suskin, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. 'So someone's got to lose share somewhere.' A fast-emerging theme for European carmakers that have reported sales for the second quarter has been weakness in China — one of the world's largest auto markets — where domestic companies have become tough competitors. German sportscar maker Porsche AG said its global deliveries fell 6% in the first half of the year, and warned of a difficult road ahead due to fierce competition in China and slowing momentum in the U.S. BMW AG's sales stagnated in the second quarter as deliveries in China dropped, and Mercedes-Benz Group AG's vehicle sales declined in both the U.S. and China. 'China is probably a lost cause for all foreign brands, except for Tesla,' Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter wrote in a note to clients this month. The rise of Chinese EV makers such as Geely is also pressuring BYD, the country's top automaker, which saw its domestic passenger car sales decline the past few months. China this week pledged to rein in 'irrational competition' in its EV sector after BYD and other automakers cut prices to lure buyers. For Wall Street, partsmakers look like a bright spot. With car manufacturers facing intense political pressure to forgo price increases as tariffs hit, auto suppliers are showing signs of being able to pass along that expense. In Europe, for example, analysts favor tiremakers in particular as the companies successfully raise prices to offset US tariff costs, which Citigroup Inc. says reflects an early pass-through to consumers. 'We think more local players, especially Michelin, can benefit from this trend in a profitable way,' analysts led by Ross MacDonald wrote in a note this week. Dey, MacDonogh and Yang write for Bloomberg.

Tesla India Entry With $70,000 Model Y To Test Musk's Brand Pull
Tesla India Entry With $70,000 Model Y To Test Musk's Brand Pull

NDTV

time15-07-2025

  • Automotive
  • NDTV

Tesla India Entry With $70,000 Model Y To Test Musk's Brand Pull

Tesla Inc. opened its first India showroom, showcasing Model Y cars priced at nearly $70,000, as Elon Musk's electric-vehicle maker looks to tap new markets and offset slowing sales where it's already well established. A 4,000-square-foot space in Mumbai's financial district of Bandra Kurla Complex opened its doors on Tuesday with two Model Ys on display. The rear-wheel drive vehicle has a starting price of about 5.99 million rupees ($69,757) while the longer range variant is priced at 6.8 million rupees, Tesla's website showed. That's almost a third more than the vehicle's starting price in the US without a federal tax credit - largely due to India's 70% to 110% tariffs on imported cars that Musk has long criticized. The Tesla showroom saw a throng of curious onlookers and enthusiasts since early Tuesday morning as they tried to get a glimpse of the experience center despite heavy showers in Mumbai. Isabel Fan, Tesla's director for South East Asia, were among the company executives at the inauguration. The long-anticipated India entry by Tesla comes amid challenges in China and the US, its two core markets. The company's sales fell last quarter and it's anxious to avoid a second year of declines after a dismal 2024. The American EV maker has been ceding ground globally to Chinese rival BYD Co. and India represents an opportunity to grow in a market that's relatively untapped by global brands, due to a gamut of protectionist barriers. A second showroom is expected to open in New Delhi by the end of July, and Tesla has beefed up local hiring and secured warehousing space. But with no plans to set up a manufacturing plant in the world's third-largest automobile market, Tesla's entry into India is less about racking up immediate sales volume gains and more about gaging demand for its EVs and building up the brand's image. Planting The Brand "It's not meaningful from a volume standpoint yet," said Jay Kale, a Mumbai-based analyst at Elara Securities. "But it plants the brand. Over time, as charging infrastructure improves and the lineup expands, Tesla could scale." Customers in India can begin placing orders later this month and the first deliveries are likely in August, Bloomberg News reported last week. While the Model Y is the world's top-selling electric car, few Indians will be able to afford one. The country's EV penetration remains under 5%, and luxury cars make up just 1% of total vehicle sales. Tesla will compete mostly with German luxury carmakers such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz Group AG, not mass-market budget-car players like Tata Motors Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. and MG Motor India Pvt. Musk's company has flirted with the idea of establishing a local manufacturing base - something the Indian government has courted and that could sidestep heavy import tariffs - but so far Tesla hasn't committed to doing so. Strained Relationship India is currently negotiating a trade deal with the US, including a potential reduction in tariffs on automobiles - something Musk has been seeking for years. It's unclear what impact, if any, the Tesla chief executive officer's newly strained relationship with US President Donald Trump may have on his company's lobbying efforts to lower Indian trade barriers. The Tesla brand's debut in India follows the resignation in May of its former head of operations in the country.

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