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an hour ago
- Business
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Why United Natural Foods' (UNFI) Unusual Options Activity Points to a Potential Rebound
As a monitoring device, Barchart's screener for unusual stock options volume presents an important barometer for how the smart money may be positioning itself. By noting both the volume relative to longer-term averages and the overall flow of capital, retail investors can paint a sentiment picture and possibly determine where the market may head next. One idea to keep close tabs on is United Natural Foods (UNFI). Since the start of the year, UNFI stock dropped almost 15% of equity value. In the trailing month, sentiment has been particularly poor, with the security shedding more than 26%. However, in the past five sessions, UNFI gained 6.05%, potentially reflecting a behavioral shift. Is Apple Stock 'Dead Money' in July 2025? Watch This AAPL Options Indicator Now. BAC Earnings Play: Profiting from Volatility with a Naked Put Analysts Keep Raising Microsoft Stock Price Targets - Time to Buy? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! On Monday, United Natural had a strong day, moving up 2.37%. Unsurprisingly, the company represented one of the highlights for unusual options activity. Specifically, total derivatives volume reached 6,709 contracts, representing a 73.85% lift over the trailing one-month average. Further, call volume clocked in at 6,319 contracts versus put volume of only 390, yielding a put/call ratio of 0.06. On paper, the low ratio indicates that more traders were engaging call options than puts, suggesting a bullish outlook. Barchart's options flow screener — which focuses exclusively on big block transactions likely placed by institutional investors — confirmed the intuitive reading of the ratio with a net trade sentiment of $124,800 above parity. What's intriguing is that the biggest transactions by dollar volume overwhelmingly stemmed from call options. Since Barchart's algorithm identified the sentiment as bullish, it would imply that the calls represented debit-based transactions, meaning that UNFI stock would have to reach established profitability thresholds for the underlying trades to be successful. That's 'directly' bullish in my book. To be fair, interpreting options flow — or any options-related info — is a tricky matter. Absent interviewing the traders involved, you're never 100% sure of the strategies and motivations behind the transactions. That said, the quantitative signal seems to back up the bullish case for UNFI stock. As insightful as reports on the derivatives market may be, they're still very much interpretive. While arguably better than the traditional methodologies of fundamental and technical analysis, these reports still lack specificity. For traders (especially options traders), a thesis cannot merely be centered on the magnitude component (y-axis); it must also consider the time element (x-axis). In other words, options traders live in a world of probabilities. To survive and thrive in this ecosystem, statistical analysis is necessary but the practice is difficult to conduct in the financial realm. Initially, you might think it's as easy as taking the frequency of the desired outcome divided by the total number of events in the dataset. However, this approach only calculates the derivative probability or outcome odds over the entire dataset's distribution. What we are looking for? We're seeking conditional probabilities — outcome odds over a specific subset of the data. It's a much more useful statistic, similar to a situational batting average (such as when there are runners in scoring position) rather than a simple batting average over last season. By understanding conditional odds, we can use math to determine when to swing and when to wait for our pitch. It's a beautiful concept that, once you see it, you'll never want to go back to the typical spray-and-pray approach. However, calculating conditional odds is a troubling practice in finance because share prices often fluctuate wildly over time. That's why a conversion process is necessary and market breadth — or sequences of accumulative and distributive sessions — offers an ideal solution. As a representation of demand, market breadth is effectively binary and that lends itself to the categorization of price action as distinct, discrete behavioral events. For example, in the last two months, the price action of UNFI stock can be converted as a 6-4-D sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a negative trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, this process compresses UNFI's magnitude dynamism into a simple binary code. But now, distinct demand profiles can be categorized across 10-week intervals, facilitating probabilistic analysis based on the statistical quantification of past analogs. As it turns out, since January 2019, the 6-4-D sequence has flashed 34 times. In 70.59% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 3.62%. Should the bulls maintain control over the next three weeks, investors could potentially see an additional 4.4% of performance tacked on. Using Friday's closing price of UNFI stock of $22.76 as an anchor, $24.60 could be a legitimate target over the next three weeks. Given Monday's strong performance, a push toward the psychologically significant $25 level wouldn't be out of the question. Based on the market intelligence above, aggressive speculators may consider the 23/25 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $23 call and simultaneously selling the $25 call, for a net debit paid of $100. Should UNFI stock rise through the short strike price ($25) at expiration, the maximum reward is also $100, a payout of 100%. From a tactical perspective, what makes this trade attractive is the three weeks that traders have for the transaction to work out favorably. Further, the breakeven price for this trade is $24, which is reasonable given the current market price of $23.31. Another element to consider is the implied shift in sentiment regime of the 6-4-D sequence. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in UNFI stock will be profitable over any given week is 58.53%. While that's already robust, the 6-4-D adds 12 percentage points of 'free odds' in the bullish speculator's favor. On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Analysts Keep Raising Microsoft Stock Price Targets - Time to Buy?
Sell-side stock analysts continue to raise their price targets on Microsoft Corp (MSFT) stock. One way to play this is to sell short out-of-the-money (OTM) MSFT puts. They provide a short-put yield of over 1.3% one month out for a 4% lower strike price. MSFT is trading at $492.50, just off its recent peak of $497.45 on June 26. It could have much further to go, based on our free cash flow (FCF) based price target and analysts' recent recommendations. Is Apple Stock 'Dead Money' in July 2025? Watch This AAPL Options Indicator Now. BAC Earnings Play: Profiting from Volatility with a Naked Put Analysts Keep Raising Microsoft Stock Price Targets - Time to Buy? Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. My June 10 Barchart article ("Microsoft Stock is Up In the Last Month - Is MSFT Still a Buy? ") showed how MSFT could be worth $581.71 per share. That is still 18% over today's price, but at the time it was almost 24% than the price at the time of the article ($469.69). This price target was based on Microsoft's strong free cash flow (FCF) and FCF margins. However, there is reason to upgrade our price target, as analysts have done. For example, using a 29% FCF margin (the same as its latest quarter) and analysts' next 12-month (NTM) revenue average of $298 million, we forecast $86.42 billion in FCF. Then, using a 2.0% FCF yield (i.e., the same as a 50x FCF multiple), we forecast a market cap of over $4.32 trillion: $86.42b FCF x 50 = $4,321b market cap. However, it now makes sense to look one full year out to the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, using revenue forecasts for the period. For example, Seeking Alpha shows that 57 analysts now project FY 2026 revenue (for the year ending June 30, 2026) will be $316.49 billion. That means our new FCF estimate, using a 29% FCF margin, is higher at almost $92 billion for FY 2026: 29% x $316.49 billion = $91.78 billion FCF That raises our market cap estimate, using a 2.0% FCF yield (i.e., a 50x multiple): 50 x $91.78 billion = $4,589 billion (i.e., almost $4.6 trillion) market cap Today's market cap, according to Yahoo! Finance, is $3,655 billion. As a result, MSFT's value could rise by +25.6% from here over the next year: $4,589 b/ $3,655b = 1.2555 -1 = +25.55% That means MSFT stock is worth 25.55% more, or $618 per share: $492.50 x 1.2555 = $618.09 new price target That is +6.2% from my prior price target. Moreover, since then, analysts have significantly raised their price targets. For example, Yahoo! Finance now shows that 60 analysts now have a $522.26 average price target. That is up from $512.04 as of June 10. In addition, Barchart's average survey price target is $522.81, up from $515.74 on June 10. So, on average, analysts have raised their price targets about +1.65% in the last 3 weeks. Moreover, which tracks recent analysts' stock price recommendations, shows that 37 analysts have an average price target of $556.11. That is +4.78% higher than the June 10 price target average of $530.74. This shows that analysts agree with my FCF-based analysis: MSFT is still deeply undervalued. However, there is no guarantee this will occur. The stock could fall from its peak. One way to play this is to set a lower buy-in target by shorting out-of-the-money (OTM) put options. This also provides existing shareholders with extra income. In my last Barchart article, I suggested selling short the $450 strike price put option that expires on July 18. This was slightly over 4% below the trading price of $469.36. The investor received $4.10 in midpoint premium, representing a yield of almost 1% (i.e., $4.10 / $450.00 = 0.00911 = 0.91%. However, now those puts have fallen in price to just 53 cents at the midpoint. So, most of the $4.10 premium has already been earned by the short-seller. It might make sense for a trader to cover this trade (i.e., enter an order to 'Buy to Close'), and roll it over into a new short-put trade. For example, the Aug. 8 MSFT put expiration period shows that the $470.00 strike put has a premium of $6.80 per put option contract shorted. That is slightly over 4% below today's price. So, the short-put yield is higher than before (for new investors), almost 1.5%: $6.80/$470 = 0.01447 = 1.447% (38 days to expiry) Moreover, for investors who rollover the prior trade, the new yield is still high: $(6.80 - $-0.53)/$470.00 = $6.27 / $470 = 0.1334 = 1.334% The point is that this is even higher than the original short-put yield, even though MSFT stock has risen. So, in total, the rollover trade provides a total yield of 1.334% and 0.91%, or 2.244% over the period from June 10 to July 18 (i.e., 38 days). In addition, less risk-averse investors can short the $475.00 put for $8.05, for a net gross yield of 1.69% (i.e., $8.05/$475.00), and a net (post-rollover) yield of 1.583% (i.e., $7.52/$475.00). That is just over the next 38 days, so the annualized expected return is very high. The result of these plays is that investors using a mix of these trades to make a 1.5% short-put yield over the next month. Moreover, the breakeven point is lower for an investor buying into MSFT if the account is assigned to buy at $470. For example, the breakeven buy-in point (if MSFT falls to $470 over the next month) is: $470 - $6.80 = $463.20, or 6.16% below today's price That provides huge upside, over one-third higher, given our $618.09 price target: $618.09/$463.20 = 1.334 = +33.4% upside The bottom line is that MSFT looks very cheap here. Our new FCF-based price target, as well as analysts' upgrades, shows it is at least 20% to 25% undervalued. So, it makes sense for new investors in MSFT to set a lower buy-in price target by shorting OTM puts. Existing shareholders can make extra income shorting these OTM puts as well. On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake, CFA did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on
Yahoo
11 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why Softs Have Fallen on Hard Times
Where the platinum market has posted a strong rally recently while its forward curve remains in contango, some Softs markets are falling despite forward curves in backwardation. We need to keep in mind the Softs sector is made up of weather derivative markets, and technical analysis takes into account changes in weather, among other things. Arabica Coffee Prices Retreat on Brazil Coffee Crop Optimism Cocoa Prices Plunge on Expectations of a Bigger Ghana Cocoa Crop Cocoa Prices Plunge on Projections for a Larger 2025/26 Ghana Cocoa Crop Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. Technically, coffee has moved into a long-term downtrend indicating the weather in Brazil and Vietnam has improved over recent months. In my recent conversation with Myra Saefong from MarketWatch, I mentioned how platinum's (PLV25) forward curve was showing a standard contango (carry for those of you not from New York) indicating a far less bullish supply and demand situation than the various markets of the Softs sector we have talked about the last few years. As June came to an end, some Softs forward curves still in backwardation (inverse) could be seen in cocoa and coffee. Despite this continued bullish read on real fundamentals, both markets have struggled to find continued buying interest. To expand the overall discussion of the commodity complex in general, we see a similar situation in the Energies sector. But that's a subject for another day. For now, let's focus on why markets in the Softs sector have fallen on hard times, from a technical point of view. Before we dive in, keep in mind the definition of technical analysis is 'the study of market action, primarily through the use of charts, for the purpose of forecasting futures price trends'[i]. Additionally, the three key premises on which the technical approach is based are[ii]: Market action discounts everything. Anything that can possibly affect the market price of a commodity futures contract – fundamental, political, psychological, or otherwise – is actually reflected in the price of that commodity. Prices move in trends, and trends equal price direction over time. There is a corollary to this premise, 'a trend in motion is more likely to continue than to reverse'. (An adaptation of Newton's first law of motion.) History repeats itself. As I talked about with US stock indexes Tuesday, each month I put together long-term analysis for a variety of markets. In the case of the Softs sector, I look at Cash Indexes found on Barchart's cmdtyView system to avoid the roll from contract to contract and lightly traded contracts that show up on continuous monthly charts. With that in mind, here's what the technical picture was for the sector as June came to an end. Cotton: The Index (CTY00) looks to have moved into a major (long-term) uptrend as it took out the April high of 67.42 during June. The Index closed last month at 66.43, also a new 4-month high monthly close. Coffee: The Index (KCY00) confirmed a new major downtrend as it fell to a new 4-month low during June. The risk is the market remains fundamentally bullish, as indicated by the continued backwardation in the futures forward curve. Cocoa: I'm not seeing a clear trend on the monthly chart for the Index (CCY00). Meanwhile, the futures market's forward curve remains in strong backwardation indicating a long-term bullish supply and demand situation. Sugar: The Index (SBY00) extended its major downtrend to a low of 15.60 before closing at 16.19, down 0.91 for the month. Orange Juice: The monthly chart looks like something we'd see with natural gas (aka the Widow Maker). That being said, the Index (OJY00) did complete a bullish key reversal at the end of April, coinciding with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics. This means the index both signaled (stochastics) and confirmed (key reversal pattern) a new major uptrend. The market consolidated during May before breaking down again during June. What has been the catalyst for changes in long-term trends over the past few months? Given the sector is made up of weather derivatives, for the most part, we can point to improved weather over key growing areas around the world for the various markets. While trends reflect this, we haven't seen it change some of the forward curves, at least not yet. [i] From Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets by John J. Murphy, 1986 edition, page 1. [ii] Pages 2 and 3 On the date of publication, Darin Newsom did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
This ‘Strong Buy' Stock Is Seriously Flying Under the Radar
Sportradar (SRAD) exhibits strong technical momentum, hitting a new 52-week high on Tuesday, July 2. SRAD has a 100% technical 'Buy' signal via Barchart. The stock has gained 150% over the past year and shows continued bullish signals from Barchart's Trend Seeker. Fundamentals show projected double-digit revenue growth, but earnings are volatile. Valued at $30.8 billion, Sportradar Group (SRAD) is a provider of sports betting and sports entertainment products and services. I found today's Chart of the Day by using Barchart's powerful screening functions. I sorted for stocks with the highest technical buy signals, superior current momentum in both strength and direction, and a Trend Seeker 'buy' signal. I then used Barchart's Flipcharts feature to review the charts for consistent price appreciation. SRAD checks those boxes. Since the Trend Seeker signaled a buy on April 14, the stock has gained 20.6%. Microsoft Stock Is Headed for $4 Trillion. Is It Too Late to Buy MSFT Here? Is UnitedHealth Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold for July 2025? Is Palantir Stock a Buy at New Record Highs? Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! SRAD Price vs. Daily Moving Averages: Editor's Note: The technical indicators below are updated live during the session every 20 minutes and can therefore change each day as the market fluctuates. The indicator numbers shown below therefore may not match what you see live on the website when you read this report. These technical indicators form the Barchart Opinion on a particular stock. Sportradar shares hit a new 52-week high on July 1, touching $28.50 in intraday trading. Sportradar has a 100% technical 'Buy' signal. The stock recently traded at $27.50, above its 50-day moving average of $24.32. SRAD has a Weighted Alpha of +137.98. The stock has gained 150% over the past year. SRAD has its Trend Seeker 'Buy' signal intact. Sportradar is trading above its 20, 50 and 100-day moving averages. The stock has made 12 new highs and gained 12.4% in the last month. Relative Strength Index is at 74.69%. The technical support level is $27.20. $30.8 billion market cap. Trailing price-earnings ratio of 147.79x. Revenue is projected to grow 15.36% this year and another 15.17% next year. Earnings are estimated to decrease 18.45% this year but increase by 50.71% next year. I don't buy stocks because everyone else is buying, but I do realize that if major firms and investors are dumping a stock, it's hard to make money swimming against the tide. It looks like Wall Street analysts and major advisory sites are bullish on this stock. The Wall Street analysts tracked by Barchart issued 14 'Strong Buy,' one 'Moderate Buy,' and one 'Hold' opinion on the stock. Value Line does not rate the stock. CFRA's MarketScope rates the stock a 'Strong Buy.' MorningStar thinks the stock is 29% overvalued. 3,610 investors monitor the stock on Seeking Alpha, which rates the stock a 'Strong Buy.' Sportradar currently has momentum and support from both the market and individual investors. I caution that SRAD is volatile and speculative — use strict risk management and stop-loss strategies. Today's Chart of the Day was written by Jim Van Meerten. Read previous editions of the daily newsletter here. Additional disclosure: The Barchart of the Day highlights stocks that are experiencing exceptional current price appreciation. They are not intended to be buy recommendations as these stocks are extremely volatile and speculative. Should you decide to add one of these stocks to your investment portfolio it is highly suggested you follow a predetermined diversification and moving stop loss discipline that is consistent with your personal investment risk tolerance. On the date of publication, Jim Van Meerten did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
3 Overlooked Dividend Aristocrats To Buy in 2025
Income investors have long trusted dividend stocks for their stable payouts. However, the growing popularity of high-risk, high-income alternatives causes some investors to move away from these reliable stocks, but not me. Investors who are obsessed with stability, like myself, find the Dividend Aristocrats to be an ideal choice. These are companies listed in the S&P 500 that have increased their dividends for at least 25 consecutive years, having dealt with even the strongest market headwinds. With Geopolitical Tensions Running Hot, Buy This Dividend Stock 3 Overlooked Dividend Aristocrats To Buy in 2025 Tired of missing midday reversals? The FREE Barchart Brief newsletter keeps you in the know. Sign up now! Today, we're looking at three Dividend Aristocrats that may have flown under the radar but report massive earnings and momentum that can extend well beyond 2025. Using Barchart's Stock Screener, I selected the following filters to get my results: EPS Basic Growth Last Year (%): At least 1%. I'm looking for companies that have achieved high profits compared to their performance in the previous year. More profit equates to more room to increase dividends. Cash Flow Growth Last Year (%): At least 10%. An increase in cash flow reflects the ability to pay liabilities and, most importantly, dividends. Overall Buy/Sell/Hold Signal: Buy. Number of Analysts: At least 12. A high number of analysts shows greater confidence of the signal. Current Analyst Rating: Moderate to Strong Buy. Watchlist: Dividend Aristocrats I ran these filters and got 6 company hits: Then I sorted it based on EPS Basic Growth % to get the top 3 companies that made the biggest profits, starting with number one: Cardinal Health is a company I feature often, so I'll keep the introduction brief. Cardinal Health is a major player in the medical field, providing customized products and services in over 30 countries, including more than 90% of U.S. hospitals. The company's 2024 annual report reported sales of approximately $227 billion, up 10.7% from the same quarter, last year. Net income increased 157.7% year-over-year to $853 million. EPS came in at $3.48 up 174% from 2023. Cardinal Health is a Dividend Aristocrat and has increased its dividends for 29 consecutive years. Today, it pays a forward annual dividend of $2.04, translating to a yield of roughly 1.24%. Barchart Opinion reports a 100% Buy overall average for CAH, with 14 analysts rating the stock a strong buy. The second Dividend Aristocrat on this list is Abbott Laboratories, a company I've also written about several times. Abbott manufactures health-related products and provides healthcare services to over 160 countries, with more than 300 subsidiaries worldwide. The company's 2024 annual report reported sales of ~$42 billion, up 4.6% from the previous year. Net income increased 134.2% to $13.4 billion. EPS was $7.67, also up 133.8% from 2023. Abbott Laboratories has increased its dividends for 53 consecutive years and pays a current forward annual dividend of $2.36, translating to a yield of approximately 1.73%. Barchart Opinion shows a 100% Buy overall average for ABT, with 26 analysts rating the stock a strong buy. The last Dividend Aristocrat that's often overlooked is Ecolab Inc., a company specializing in water, hygiene, and energy technologies. Together with its subsidiaries, it provides services to various industries, including animal and plant production, food and beverage, mining, and power generation. The company has a presence in 40 industries across more than 170 countries. According to the company's 2024 annual report, sales came in at ~$15.7 billion, up 3% from the previous year. Net income increased 54% to $2.1 billion. And EPS was $7.43, also up 54.1% from 2023. Ecolab Inc. is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividends for 33 consecutive years and pays a current forward annual dividend of $2.60, translating to a yield of approximately 0.95%. Barchart Opinion reports a 100% Buy overall average for ECL, with 24 analysts rating the stock a moderate buy. So, there you have it, the three overlooked Dividend Aristocrats with a strong technicals and financials, making them an attractive addition to your portfolio. Although current ratings and previous performance do not guarantee a win, they are an excellent indicator of stocks that can benefit the most from a bull run. On the date of publication, Rick Orford did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
