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Economic Times
01-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Crude, monsoon hold the key to market direction in H2 2025: Bay Capital's Nikunj Doshi
Nikunj Doshi of Bay Capital anticipates that crude oil prices and monsoon progress will significantly influence Indian equities in the second half of 2025. He highlights opportunities in consumption, digital-first businesses, and financial services. Doshi believes India is becoming a core portfolio allocation for global funds due to its strong growth and macro stability. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads As Indian equities navigate through global volatility and domestic shifts, Nikunj Doshi, Managing Partner and CIO-PMS at Bay Capital Investment Advisors, shares his insights on what lies ahead for investors in the second half of an exclusive conversation with ETMarkets Smart Talk, Doshi highlights how two key domestic variables—crude oil prices and the progress of the monsoon—will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment and corporate earnings He also sheds light on emerging sectoral opportunities, the evolving role of India in global portfolios, and why patient investors should stay focused despite short-term noise. Edited Excerpts –A) Geopolitical concerns do carry an economic impact — particularly in terms of supply chain disruptions, commodity price fluctuations, and global risk-off whether these concerns will leave a lasting impact on investor sentiment depends on the scale, duration, and economic implications of the we've seen that events like the Gulf War, the Southeast Asian crisis, 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, or even the Covid-19 pandemic have triggered sharp short-term corrections, but they eventually opened up some of the best investment opportunities for long-term caused by such crises often creates value dislocations in quality businesses, which can be capitalised on with a patient, long-term view.A) Looking ahead to H2 2025, the outlook for Indian equities will hinge primarily on two domestic variables — crude oil prices and the progress of the factors have a direct bearing on inflation, rural consumption, and macroeconomic stability. If crude remains within manageable levels and we have a normal monsoon, then business sentiment should stay that scenario, we foresee an improvement in demand conditions, further margin stabilisation, and consequently, an upward revision in corporate earnings for FY27. That would likely lend strong support to equity markets over the medium term.A) Besides defence (which we don't invest) we see opportunities in consumption, digital first businesses and financial services sectors.A) Crude oil remains a critical macro variable for India due to our import dependency. A $10 increase per barrel typically raises the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3% of said, India's current external position is relatively comfortable, and any spike in crude may not derail the macro outlook unless it's prolonged or very ongoing tariff negotiations with the US conclude smoothly, and global trade channels remain functional, the economy should be able to absorb moderate crude increases without significant pressure on earnings or GDP growth.A) As mentioned earlier we see opportunities in consumption, digital first businesses and financial services sectors. Our focus is on business leadership, large TAM and corporate governance besides the financial overall market valuations do look high, but there are many stocks available at attractive valuations if one looks bottom up.A) We see India becoming core portfolio allocation for global funds rather than being clubbed with other emerging markets. India is now the fourth largest economy with much better growth outlook, we this happening sooner than India now being the fourth-largest economy and delivering consistent growth, the country stands out for its macro stability, reform momentum, and consumption-led growth model.A) Asset allocation call depends on individual priorities. For first-time investors, we recommend starting with mutual funds — either via SIPs or STPs — to average out across asset classes like equity, debt, and gold is also advisable depending on one's financial milestones and income stability.A) The RBI's decision to front-load a 50 basis points cut, along with efforts to infuse liquidity, was a prudent move given the evolving global and domestic macro backdrop. Alongside the tax reliefs announced in the previous Union Budget and a cooling inflation trajectory, these policy measures should help improve household sentiment and consumption demand in the near RBI will likely now adopt a wait-and-watch approach to assess how businesses and consumers respond to these monetary and fiscal measures before making further rate decisions.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Time of India
01-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Crude, monsoon hold the key to market direction in H2 2025: Bay Capital's Nikunj Doshi
As Indian equities navigate through global volatility and domestic shifts, Nikunj Doshi, Managing Partner and CIO-PMS at Bay Capital Investment Advisors, shares his insights on what lies ahead for investors in the second half of 2025. In an exclusive conversation with ETMarkets Smart Talk, Doshi highlights how two key domestic variables—crude oil prices and the progress of the monsoon—will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment and corporate earnings . He also sheds light on emerging sectoral opportunities, the evolving role of India in global portfolios, and why patient investors should stay focused despite short-term noise. Edited Excerpts – Play Video Pause Skip Backward Skip Forward Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration 0:00 Loaded : 0% 0:00 Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 1x Playback Rate Chapters Chapters Descriptions descriptions off , selected Captions captions settings , opens captions settings dialog captions off , selected Audio Track default , selected Picture-in-Picture Fullscreen This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Text Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Caption Area Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Opacity Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Drop shadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Q) Thanks for taking the time out. While May closed on a strong note, June saw some volatility — from a long-term perspective, do you see geopolitical concerns having a sustained impact on market sentiment? by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo A) Geopolitical concerns do carry an economic impact — particularly in terms of supply chain disruptions, commodity price fluctuations, and global risk-off sentiment. However, whether these concerns will leave a lasting impact on investor sentiment depends on the scale, duration, and economic implications of the event. Historically, we've seen that events like the Gulf War, the Southeast Asian crisis, 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, or even the Covid-19 pandemic have triggered sharp short-term corrections, but they eventually opened up some of the best investment opportunities for long-term investors. Live Events Volatility caused by such crises often creates value dislocations in quality businesses, which can be capitalised on with a patient, long-term view. Q) As we are about to end 1H2025, what are your expectations or assumptions for the rest of the year? A) Looking ahead to H2 2025, the outlook for Indian equities will hinge primarily on two domestic variables — crude oil prices and the progress of the monsoon. These factors have a direct bearing on inflation, rural consumption, and macroeconomic stability. If crude remains within manageable levels and we have a normal monsoon, then business sentiment should stay robust. In that scenario, we foresee an improvement in demand conditions, further margin stabilisation, and consequently, an upward revision in corporate earnings for FY27. That would likely lend strong support to equity markets over the medium term. Q) Are there any new or existing themes that are likely to do well in 2H2025? A) Besides defence (which we don't invest) we see opportunities in consumption, digital first businesses and financial services sectors. Q) Geopolitical concerns weighed on crude oil in the past few weeks. How do you see crude oil moving in the near future and what could be the possible impact on earnings and GDP growth? A) Crude oil remains a critical macro variable for India due to our import dependency. A $10 increase per barrel typically raises the current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3% of GDP. That said, India's current external position is relatively comfortable, and any spike in crude may not derail the macro outlook unless it's prolonged or very steep. If ongoing tariff negotiations with the US conclude smoothly, and global trade channels remain functional, the economy should be able to absorb moderate crude increases without significant pressure on earnings or GDP growth. Q) In terms of valuation comfort – which sectors are on your radar? A) As mentioned earlier we see opportunities in consumption, digital first businesses and financial services sectors. Our focus is on business leadership, large TAM and corporate governance besides the financial parameters. While overall market valuations do look high, but there are many stocks available at attractive valuations if one looks bottom up. Q) How are FIIs looking at India amid falling interest rates globally? A) We see India becoming core portfolio allocation for global funds rather than being clubbed with other emerging markets. India is now the fourth largest economy with much better growth outlook, we this happening sooner than later. With India now being the fourth-largest economy and delivering consistent growth, the country stands out for its macro stability, reform momentum, and consumption-led growth model. Q) If someone plans to allocate say Rs 10 lakh (30-40 years) in 2H2025 – should they put fresh money to work? What is the ideal asset allocation? A) Asset allocation call depends on individual priorities. For first-time investors, we recommend starting with mutual funds — either via SIPs or STPs — to average out volatility. Diversification across asset classes like equity, debt, and gold is also advisable depending on one's financial milestones and income stability. Q) How is the rate trajectory looking from the RBI? Do you think the front-loaded 50 bps cut was enough to boost consumption? A) The RBI's decision to front-load a 50 basis points cut, along with efforts to infuse liquidity, was a prudent move given the evolving global and domestic macro backdrop. Alongside the tax reliefs announced in the previous Union Budget and a cooling inflation trajectory, these policy measures should help improve household sentiment and consumption demand in the near term. The RBI will likely now adopt a wait-and-watch approach to assess how businesses and consumers respond to these monetary and fiscal measures before making further rate decisions.
Time of India
15-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
40 India-listed tech companies valued at $90 billion: Report
BENGALURU: India's maturing capital markets are prompting digital-first companies to shift their headquarters back to the country. A white paper from Bay Capital Investment Advisors highlights this "reverse flipping" phenomenon, where startups previously registered in countries like the US, Singapore, or the Netherlands are returning to India, showcasing increased faith in domestic markets, regulatory improvements, and a broader investor base. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Approximately 40 Indian consumer internet and technology firms have domestic listings, with their collective market value reaching $90 billion. Several prominent firms including PhonePe, Groww, Zepto, Flipkart, Razorpay, Pine Labs, Udaan, Meesho, KreditBee, and InMobi have flipped or considered a return, with plans to list on Indian exchanges. Several elements contribute to this transformation. Indian investors have developed expertise in assessing digital enterprises using metrics such as customer acquisition cost (CAC), lifetime value (LTV), and user retention. Market regulator Sebi's reforms have enabled high-growth companies, despite losses, to access public markets. Enhanced participation from mutual funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices has strengthened the investment landscape. Public listings have increased significantly. During 2024, 327 firms raised Rs 1.5 lakh crore through public offerings, compared to Rs 20,628 crore in 2020. Notable digital enterprises, including Swiggy, FirstCry, Ola Electric, Unicommerce, and TBO Tek, launched their public offerings, demonstrating investor interest in technology-driven growth opportunities. Bay Capital identifies India's highly sophisticated digital infrastructure-UPI, Aadhaar, ONDC, and Account Aggregator framework as crucial drivers. The trend extends beyond the consumer internet. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now India's deep technology sector is expanding, with ventures in AI, quantum computing, space technology, and enterprise software securing substantial funding. Nasscom-Zinnov data indicates deep tech startups secured $1.6 billion across 310 deals in 2024, rising 78% year-on-year, with AI representing nearly half the investment. While Bay Capital maintains optimism about India's digital and technological future, it advocates careful investment selection. The report emphasises that "robust business models, distinctive competitive advantages, healthy organisational culture, and sustainable profitable growth remain essential when evaluating potential investments" in the country.
