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The Guardian
a day ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
Wreckers, money woes and mutirão: 10 things we learned about Cop30 from Bonn climate talks
Two weeks of negotiations on the climate crisis have just concluded in Bonn in preparation for the Cop30 summit taking place in Brazil this November. What did we learn? Limiting global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels is vital for a healthy planet, but hopes of doing so are rapidly vanishing as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and temperatures soar. The main task for Cop30 in Belém this November is for every country to submit a national plan, required under the 2015 Paris agreement, to cut carbon as far as necessary to hold to the 1.5C limit. Few countries have submitted their plans, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which set out a target on emissions to 2035 and an indication of the measures that will be taken to meet them. They were due in February, but the presidency of Donald Trump, his vacillations over tariffs and the prospect of a global trade war led many to adopt a 'wait and see' approach. Military conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran have further frightened governments and taken attention away from the climate. Brazil is urging all countries to come forward with their NDCs in September, in time for the UN to assess them before Cop30 begins. Even if they meet the deadline, however, it was abundantly clear from the preliminary negotiations in Bonn that the NDCs will not add up to the emissions cuts needed to stay within 1.5C, assuming that is still possible. That leaves Brazil with a dilemma. The Cop host has no control over how countries set their NDCs, as that is done by national governments before they arrive in Belém. No country is likely to revise its NDC at the Cop. But a summit that ends with inadequate NDCs that would lead to global heating far in excess of 1.5C or even 2C will be labelled a failure. Brazil must find a way to show how NDCs that come up short can be improved or remedied, or how countries can collaborate to make faster and deeper cuts, if it is to keep the goals of Paris alive. Work at Bonn was held up for two days because countries could not agree on the agenda for the meeting, and by the end they had little progress to show on key issues. This was just a foretaste of the fights and recriminations that Brazil can expect in earnest at Cop30. As well as the withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement, and the dangerous geopolitical circumstances, Brazil will have to contend with a cadre of countries and vested interests that want to stymie the talks. Developed countries are widely, and reasonably, blamed for their failures to cut emissions fast enough and to provide the finance needed by the poor world. But behind the scenes many fossil fuel producers and their allies that are supposed to be on the side of the developing world are also happy to hold up negotiations, exploiting the complexity of the talks to cover their actions. If Bonn was frustrating, Cop30 could be far worse. For developing countries, the key question remains: how can they gain access to the resources they need to protect their citizens against the impacts of climate breakdown? Many are already experiencing 'loss and damage' from extreme weather, in the form of droughts, floods, heatwaves and encroaching seas. But the funding that developed countries promised has been slow to arrive. Richard Sherman, a South African delegate, told the Bonn conference: 'There is no money. The funds that we have are not able to support the need.' At Cop29, developed countries promised that $1.3tn a year would flow to the poor world by 2035, made up of at least $300bn from public sources and the rest from innovative forms of finance such as levies on polluting activities, carbon trading and private investment. Only the broad outlines were agreed, however. There is not yet a blueprint showing how the money can be delivered and distributed over the next decade. Last year's hosts, Azerbaijan, are collaborating with Brazil to produce a roadmap with more detail. Delegates warn it must set out a clear timetable of concrete actions, rather than more vague promises. At recent Cops, hosts have taken to having special meetings based on traditional formats. This began at Durban in 2011, when as the negotiations stretched long past their official deadline, heads of delegation moved into special 'indaba' meetings, named after a traditional Zulu gathering of tribal elders. Since then, Cop28 in Dubai had its 'majlis', and Cop29 in Baku had a 'qurultay', modelled on a Turkic chieftains' gathering. At Cop30, delegates will be invited to a 'mutirão', a Portuguese word derived from the Indigenous Tupi-Guarani language that refers to a group coming together to work on a shared task. Carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels is the main greenhouse gas affecting the planet, but increasingly scientists and activists are focusing on another gas: methane. Far more potent, it escapes from fossil fuel extraction sites and is produced by livestock and farming. Methane breaks down in the atmosphere much faster than carbon dioxide, but warms the planet about 80 times as much while it lasts, so cutting methane gives more bang for the emissions reduction buck. Given its smaller number of sources, plugging emissions of methane should also be easier than cutting carbon. Governments have tended to ignore the potential for methane cuts, but pressure is growing for the gas to be included prominently in countries' NDCs at Cop30. At Cop28 in Dubai, countries agreed for the first time to 'transition away from fossil fuels', a historic commitment that should have signalled a dramatic shift in the global economy. No sooner was that conference over, however, than some countries were seeking to unpick the resolution. Last year, at Cop29, attempts to reinforce the language on the transition, and to set out clearer plans on how it could be brought about, met fierce – though sometimes covert – opposition, and came to nothing. Many campaigners want to bring the subject back at Cop30. But Brazil is resisting having a 'cover decision' – a wide-ranging text that would incorporate all sorts of resolutions, arguing that the resolutions of previous Cops need not be revisited. Sign up to Down to Earth The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential after newsletter promotion Bonn ended without a clear path forward on the issue, but it is unlikely to disappear before Cop30. Every Cop generates its own baggage – presidents and host countries want to put their own stamp on proceedings, and so bring forward pet projects that focus on one aspect of the climate crisis, such as electric vehicles, or coal, or aspects of food or forestry. Over the years, these initiatives have proliferated so that now there are scores of them, some still useful but others in effect left orphaned as the ministers who invented them have faded into political obscurity and the money behind them has been spent. Brazil is aiming to tackle some of this bloat. But the wider and more radical reforms to the Cop process that some have called for will not be on the programme. Belém, a rainforest city and port, lies near the mouth of the Amazon River. While charming, it has never been a tourist mecca and to have an estimated 60,000 people, and perhaps many more, land on its shores will be a major strain. It seemed as if every conversation in Bonn, whether it started on NDCs, climate finance or the substantive issues of climate governance, always ended up on the same subject: logistics. With just four months to go, most people have yet to secure anywhere to stay in Belém. Brazil has promised that 29,000 rooms and 55,000 beds will be made available, but so far these have yet to materialise. Cruise ships are being pressed into service, supplying more than 3,000 cabins, and some people are gratefully looking forward to spending a fortnight in shipping containers. But the prices being asked in advance are astronomical, and beyond the reach of most developing country delegations and climate activist charities. Without them, the Cop will be skewed towards moneyed interests, will reinforce global inequalities and will fail the most vulnerable. Choosing Belém for Cop30 has created a logistical conundrum that the hosts have yet to solve. The choice of Belém was meant to highlight the plight of the Amazon rainforest, one of the world's greatest carbon sinks and vital to the health of the planet – and which is under threat, not just from deforestation, but from the climate crisis itself, as rapidly rising temperatures could push the Amazon over a tipping point that would transform it from rainforest into a savannah-like state. That would be catastrophic for the planet, potentially leading to further rapid escalations in temperature from which there could be no return. But the spotlight on Belém has also brought into focus Brazil's own adventures with fossil fuels. Oil and gas deposits discovered in and around the Amazon, and off the coast not far from Belém, are being considered for exploitation. Brazil's oil sector regulator, ANP, will auction the exploration rights to 172 oil and gas blocks spanning 56,000 sq miles (146,000 sq km), an area more than twice the size of Scotland, most of it offshore. The 'doomsday auction', as campaigners have called it, includes 47 blocks in the Amazon basin, in a sensitive area near the mouth of the river that fossil fuel companies consider a promising new oil frontier. Brazil has argued that developing countries should be allowed to exploit their fossil fuel reserves while developed nations, many of which have grown rich over centuries of exploiting their own resources, must take the lead in closing down operations. Ana Toni, the chief executive of Cop30, said: 'Transitioning away is a responsibility of everyone, not only producing countries, consumer countries – many countries in the north don't produce fossil fuel, but they consume fossil fuel. We've gone to this era of finger pointing on countries. We need to find solutions for producer countries that depend financially on that income.' One of the many tasks at which Bonn failed was to broker an agreement on who should host the Cop31 summit. Australia and Turkey are vying for the presidency of next year's meeting. Neither is willing to concede to the other, and the obscure process for choosing future presidencies tends to rely on consensus candidates emerging and a system of gentlemen's agreements, rather than a real competition or vote. Australia's newly re-elected government wants to showcase its commitment to climate action, despite being one of the world's biggest fossil fuel exporters, as climate policy was one of its key battlegrounds in the recent elections. Turkey has long been unhappy with its status at the talks – in 1992, when the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed, Turkey was lumped in with developed countries, which have clear obligations to cut emissions and provide climate finance to the poor world, but has since argued it should have been aligned with the developing world. There are hints that Turkey could be persuaded to drop its bid if its status were reconsidered. But opening up the parent treaty to the Paris agreement would be legally difficult and stir up much wider issues: for if Turkey's status has changed since 1992, what of countries such as China, now the world's second-biggest economy with a GDP per capita comparable to some EU member states, and wealthy Gulf petrostates such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates?
The Guardian
5 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
In London and Paris, we've experienced vicious backlash to climate action. But we're not backing down
As mayors of two of the world's great cities, we see every day how the climate emergency is already reshaping people's lives, affecting the people and places we love. From deadly heatwaves and devastating floods to rising inequality and health crises driven by air pollution, the costs of inaction are not theoretical; they are measured in lives taken, homes destroyed and business revenue lost. Ten years ago, the Paris agreement was signed, marking a turning point in the global fight against climate breakdown. But today, progress is being undermined by a deeply concerning threat: a surge in climate deniers and delayers spreading virulent disinformation. We mustn't let this hope disappear as the world gathers in Belém at the end of 2025 for Cop30. This is not just a difference of political opinion or healthy debate. It is a coordinated, well-funded campaign to delay action, erode trust and protect the profits of the fossil fuel industry, which profits most from the status quo. These narratives find fertile ground on social media, where algorithms prioritise outrage over facts. They also thrive in moments of crisis and confusion, playing on existing frustrations among communities who don't feel their voices are heard by those in charge. In Paris, online disinformation campaigns have repeatedly targeted efforts to promote active travel, reduce air pollution by reducing car use and expand clean energy. These attacks don't only come from anonymous online accounts; they are often amplified by populist politicians and partisan influencers. As a result, policies designed to clean the air and protect public health have been distorted into culture war flashpoints. For example pedestrianising Seine's riverbanks was opposed by powerful lobbies but the results talk for themselves: since 2011 air pollution from cars has been reduced by 40% in the city. In London, the expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez), a policy proven to cut pollution and save lives, was relentlessly targeted by disinformation campaigns. These messages were seeded by anonymous accounts, supercharged by bots and then repeated across partisan media. The campaigns combined existing fears about the cost of living with more sinister and racially motivated tropes, leading to a surge in attacks online against politicians and supporters, abuse of TfL staff doing their jobs installing Ulez cameras, and eventually dangerous and destructive acts of vandalism. In the face of this tide of disinformation we will not be intimidated. Cities such as London and Paris continue to show that fair, fast climate action can improve daily life: making streets safer, air cleaner and homes more affordable to heat. But if we are to protect these gains, we must tackle climate disinformation by ensuring everyone understands and feels the benefits of these success stories. That's why, as leaders of C40 Cities and the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy (GCoM), we are committing to tackle disinformation not just with facts but with fairer, better policies rooted in people's everyday realities. We are building capacity across city networks to support trusted messengers, train local leaders and develop new tools to proactively counter misinformation. But we also need others to act. We are calling on national governments, journalists, educators and tech companies to step up. We welcome efforts such as the EU's Digital Services Act, which requires online platforms to counter the spread of illegal content, including disinformation, and lays the groundwork for holding platforms accountable. But much more is needed. For example, the UK's Online Safety Act could be strengthened by explicitly recognising climate disinformation as a form of harmful content. Social media platforms are publishers and should be held accountable for hate speech and libel, as well as tackling the abuse of their platforms by anonymous bots giving a false impression of grassroots support. We also need school leaders to ensure that media literacy and climate science are taught hand in hand, so the next generation is equipped to spot falsehoods and demand action. And we urge journalists and editors to prioritise evidence-based reporting on climate policy impacts, not just the politics surrounding them. Disinformation flourishes when trust breaks down. Ultimately, fighting disinformation is not only a matter of public relations, it is about public leadership. We must rebuild the foundations of trust. That means listening to communities, addressing concerns head on, and showing through action that climate policy can improve lives today, not just decades from now. The fightback against climate disinformation is gaining momentum. Brazil's Cop30 presidency and the UN have made information integrity a top priority at the upcoming summit in Belém. Now it's time for cities and national governments alike to lead. Just as the last 10 years of climate action was forged by the Paris agreement, the next decade will be defined by how well we protect the information systems upon which our democracies depend. To do this we must prove to everyone that the action we are taking is worth it. Cities are where that trust can be built. Sadiq Khan is mayor of London and co-chair of C40 Cities. Anne Hidalgo is mayor of Paris, global ambassador for the Global Covenant of Mayors and vice-chair of C40 Cities
Associated Press
06-06-2025
- Politics
- Associated Press
As UN climate talks loom, Brazil's Amazon forest loses in May an area larger than NYC
MANAUS, Brazil (AP) — Brazil's environmental goals suffered a major setback in May as deforestation in the Amazon surged 92% compared to the same month last year, according to official monitoring data released Friday. Forest loss reached 960 square kilometers (371 square miles) during the period, an area slightly larger than New York City. It was the second-highest total for May since the current monitoring system was implemented in 2016. The increase risks reversing the year-over-year decline in forest clearance since 2023, when Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began his third term. During his campaign, the leftist leader had pledged to end deforestation by 2030. Brazil's monitoring system tracks deforestation from Aug. 1 to July 30. Over the past 10 months, deforestation has risen 9.7% compared to the same period a year earlier. The 2025 deforestation rate, tracked by the National Institute for Space Research, is expected to be announced just before the U.N. climate talks, scheduled for November in the Amazonian city of Belém. Brazil is one of the world's top 10 emitters of greenhouse gases, contributing about 3% of global emissions, according to the nonprofit Climate Watch. Almost half of those emissions come from deforestation, making efforts to halt it critical to meeting Brazil's commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Amazon, an area almost twice the size of India, contains the world's largest rainforest, about two-thirds of it within Brazil. It stores vast amounts of carbon dioxide, holds about 20% of the world's freshwater and is home to hundreds of Indigenous tribes, some living in isolation, and 16,000 known tree species. ____ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
The Independent
06-06-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
As UN climate talks loom, Brazil's Amazon forest loses in May an area larger than NYC
Brazil's environmental goals suffered a major setback in May as deforestation in the Amazon surged 92% compared to the same month last year, according to official monitoring data released Friday. Forest loss reached 960 square kilometers (371 square miles) during the period, an area slightly larger than New York City. It was the second-highest total for May since the current monitoring system was implemented in 2016. The increase risks reversing the year-over-year decline in forest clearance since 2023, when Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began his third term. During his campaign, the leftist leader had pledged to end deforestation by 2030. Brazil's monitoring system tracks deforestation from Aug. 1 to July 30. Over the past 10 months, deforestation has risen 9.7% compared to the same period a year earlier. The 2025 deforestation rate, tracked by the National Institute for Space Research, is expected to be announced just before the U.N. climate talks, scheduled for November in the Amazonian city of Belém. Brazil is one of the world's top 10 emitters of greenhouse gases, contributing about 3% of global emissions, according to the nonprofit Climate Watch. Almost half of those emissions come from deforestation, making efforts to halt it critical to meeting Brazil's commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Amazon, an area almost twice the size of India, contains the world's largest rainforest, about two-thirds of it within Brazil. It stores vast amounts of carbon dioxide, holds about 20% of the world's freshwater and is home to hundreds of Indigenous tribes, some living in isolation, and 16,000 known tree species. ____ The Associated Press' climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP's standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at
The Guardian
20-05-2025
- Politics
- The Guardian
The Guardian view on protecting the Amazon: forest defenders must have support
It doesn't start for six months, but the build-up to the UN's annual climate conference is already well under way in Brazil. Hosting the tens of thousands of delegates who make the trip is a big undertaking for any city. But the decision to host Cop30 in Belém, at the mouth of the Amazon river, has multiplied the complications. After three consecutive Cops in autocratic nations, the stated aim of Cop30's chair, André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, is to make this year's event a showcase for civil society, including the Indigenous groups and forest defenders who play such a vital role in conservation. But the lack of affordable accommodation and other infrastructure, as well as the distance that must be travelled to reach the Amazon port, mean this commendable ideal will be hard to realise. Dom Phillips' posthumously published book, How To Save the Amazon: A Journalist's Deadly Quest for Answers, is a compelling reminder of what is at stake. It is nearly three years since he was killed along with Bruno Pereira, a Brazilian government employee whose job was monitoring isolated Indigenous groups. The pair were on the way back from a trip to the remote Javari valley. The search and investigation were initially botched. Two men will go on trial for murder later this year. Phillips and Pereira understood the risks they ran, in struggling to document the destruction that was then taking place. Between 2019 and 2023, under the far-right presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, progress on rainforest conservation went into sharp reverse and deforested areas grew rapidly. Illegal loggers, miners and ranchers effectively had carte blanche, as the agencies tasked with upholding environmental regulations were weakened and disbanded. Over the same period, and encouraged by the government's laissez-faire approach, competition between drug traffickers over lucrative smuggling routes intensified. Owing to its remoteness, the Javari reserve, near the border with Peru, became a key battleground. Under President Lula the situation has stabilised. His environment minister, Marina Silva, is the right person to oversee the government's policy of zero net deforestation by 2030. But plans to expand the country's fossil fuel production are impossible to square with these environmental goals. The risk that global heating and deforestation could cause a mass dieback of the rainforest, triggering the release of vast stores of carbon, continues to trouble scientists. At the same time, doubts are growing about whether this year's deadline for certification of the beef supply chain as deforestation-free will be met. Under strong international pressure, JBS, the world's largest meat company, is putting new systems in place. But the huge number of farmers (Brazil has a cattle herd of 240m), the terrain, gaps in land registration, and systems set up to bypass checks, mean the prospects for success are not high. Having the global spotlight on the forest should at least focus minds. The Amazon's biodiversity, and role in climate regulation, make it too important to lose. Indigenous defenders, some of whom worked with Pereira and Phillips, continue the vital work of championing the landscape that is their home. The journalist's book, completed by his friends, shows the urgency of supporting their courageous efforts.
