Latest news with #BenAyers
Yahoo
18-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Retail sales rise more than expected in June
Retail sales rebounded in June, an indication that President Trump's tariffs are not significantly impacting consumer spending habits yet. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% in June, above economists' expectations for a 0.1% increase month on month. By comparison, sales decreased 0.9% in May, according to revised Census Bureau data. Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote in a research note that Thursday's release should "dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to tariffs." The control group in Thursday's release, which excludes several volatile categories and factors into the gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the quarter, rose 0.5%. That compares with a 0.2% increase seen in May. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. June sales, excluding auto and gas, increased 0.6%. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise. In May, sales excluding auto and gas were flat. A 1.8% increase in miscellaneous store retailers and a 1.2% gain in motor vehicle and parts dealer sales led the gains in June. 'Delayed tariff price increases and steady income growth continue to fuel spending despite weak survey data indicating building concerns by households," Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers wrote in a note to clients. "The strong June for retail sales should support a solid rebound for real GDP growth in the second quarter but weaker activity is still likely over the second half of the year as tariff uncertainty hangs over the outlook.' Also out Thursday morning, data from the Department of Labor showed 221,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending July 12. After picking up in May, weekly filings for unemployment claims are now at their lowest level in three months. Read more: What are jobless claims, and why do they matter? The release comes as investors have held their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts steady despite data earlier this week showing signs of sticky inflation. As of Thursday morning investors were pricing in a 54% chance the central bank cuts interest rates by its September meeting, down from a roughly 70% chance seen just last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
Axios
17-07-2025
- Business
- Axios
Forecasters hand-wring over tariffs, but the economy's still doing fine
American consumers are spending freely, unemployment filings are low and executives feel more optimistic about business prospects. Why it matters: A trade war-stunted economy remains something forecasters hand-wring about, but it's not the reality on the ground. Economic activity wrapped the second quarter on stronger footing, with consumers spending plenty after a tariff front-loading shopping spree earlier this year. It doesn't look like an economic boom time, but it's also not the stagnation that looked possible just months earlier. Driving the news: Retail sales, which aren't adjusted for inflation, rose by 0.6% in June — more than double the increase that economists anticipated. That came after a sharp pullback in May, when retail sales fell by nearly a full percentage point. It raised fears about a heightened sense of caution among consumers. Spending increased in all but three categories: department stores, furniture retailers and electronics stores. Sales at gasoline stations were flat. Miscellaneous retailers (a group that includes florists, pet supply stores and more), auto dealerships and home improvement stores saw the biggest increase in sales. What they're saying:"Delayed tariff price increases and steady income growth continue to fuel spending despite weak survey data indicating building concerns by households," Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers wrote in a note. "The strong June for retail sales should support a solid rebound for real GDP growth in the second quarter," Ayers added — but warned that "tariff uncertainty hangs over the outlook." Zoom out: The data follows further confirmation that aggregate layoffs remain low, after a spike in filings earlier this year that stoked concern about weaker labor market trends. Filings for unemployment benefits fell by 7,000 last week to 221,000, the fifth straight week of declines. Survey results from the Philadelphia Fed district — including Delaware and parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania — showed manufacturers anticipate more hiring and growth over the next six months. The intrigue: The Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading shows 2.6% growth in the second quarter, helped by normalizing imports after a first-quarter rush. Reality check: The economy is not out of the woods, especially as continued trade tensions threaten higher prices for consumers. The Philadelphia Fed survey showed forecasts for stronger activity came alongside expectations of higher prices paid and received. Import prices for consumer goods rose 0.4% in June, the largest one-month increase in over a year. That is before the tariff effect, for which the data does not account. Continued unemployment filings — that is, those collecting benefits for multiple weeks — rose to 1.96 million in early July, ticking up from the previous week, pointing to sluggish hiring for those who do lose their jobs.
The Hill
18-06-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Housing starts drop to lowest level since pandemic
The number of housing units that started construction in May fell to the lowest level since 2020, as the sector battles headwinds blown by high interest rates. Housing construction dropped 9.8 percent from April to May, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. If construction continued at that pace through the year, there would be 1.25 million units built in 2025, down from a pace of 1.39 million reached in April. The number is down 4.6 percent from a year ago, when the pace was 1.4 million units. 'Housing starts plunged in May as builders step back in 2025 amidst fading demand and rising costs,' Nationwide economist Ben Ayers wrote in a commentary. New building permits were down 2 percent from April. Housing completions were up 5.4 percent on the month but were still down 2.2 percent on the year. The housing sector was jolted by interest rate hikes delivered by the Federal Reserve in response to soaring post-pandemic inflation. While interest rate hikes combat inflation by slowing the pace of borrowing, they can also bolster the price of housing directly by making financing more expensive. Most housing is paid for with debt. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen to an annual increase of 2.4 percent, but shelter inflation is still at 3.9 percent. Housing inflation has lagged headline inflation throughout the post-pandemic period. Rates on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage were at 6.84 percent this week, still way above pre-pandemic rates around 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, housing inventories are at their highest level since November 2019. The U.S. has a huge shortage of affordable housing. The National Association of Home Builders put the shortage at 1.5 million units in 2021 while government mortgage backer Freddie Mac put it at 3.8 million units and the National Association of Realtors estimated it at 5.5 million units. Analysts noted Wednesday that the May drop in starts was concentrated in multifamily construction, which does not bode well for the affordable housing shortage. 'A sharp downward shift in multifamily construction drove the decline in May,' Ben Ayers wrote.
The Star
12-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks rebound as inflation data cools
NEW YORK, June 12 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks ended higher on Thursday, lifted by easing inflation concerns and a surge in Oracle shares, even as trade tensions and corporate headwinds kept investors cautious. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 101.85 points, or 0.24 percent, to 42,967.62. The S&P 500 added 23.02 points, or 0.38 percent, to 6,045.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 46.61 points, or 0.24 percent, to 19,662.49. Eight of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in green, with utilities and technology leading the gainers by adding 1.26 percent and 1.01 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, communication services and consumer discretionary led the laggards by losing 0.59 percent and 0.41 percent, respectively. The U.S. producer price index for May rose just 0.1 percent from April, below economist expectations of a 0.2 percent increase, suggesting modest inflationary pressure at the wholesale level, according to data issued on Thursday. On an annual basis, wholesale prices were up 2.6 percent, a slight uptick from April's 2.4 percent, but still aligned with forecasts. Core producer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, also came in softer than expected. "Concerns about widespread increases in producer prices due to tariffs continue to be dissuaded," said Nationwide's Ben Ayers, citing lower fuel costs as a moderating factor. Labor data added to the mixed economic picture, with weekly jobless claims holding steady at 248,000, slightly above forecasts and marking the second consecutive week at the highest level since October. "There are early warning signs in the labor market," said Navy Federal Credit Union's chief economist, Heather Long. "If layoffs worsen this summer, it will heighten fears of a recession and consumer spending pullback." "We still think the primary driver for market direction and to break out to all-time highs would be some resolution for tariffs and how they interlink with the budget and the Fed. And we see a lot of headlines about negotiations or pauses or frameworks, but we still haven't seen a single signed trade deal between the U.S. and its trade partners," said Tom Hainlin, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. In corporate news, Boeing led Dow and S&P 500 decliners, dropping 4.79 percent after an Air India 787-8 crash. Suppliers GE Aerospace and Spirit AeroSystems also slid. Technology stocks saw mixed performance. Microsoft rose 1.32 percent, while Nvidia and Broadcom each added more than 1 percent. Apple edged higher, but Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Tesla slipped. Tesla's 2.23 percent dip came after a four-day winning streak, during which it clawed back losses from last week's Musk-Trump controversy. The day's standout performer was Oracle, which soared 13.31 percent to a record high. The company topped quarterly earnings estimates and projected strong revenue growth, driven by robust demand for cloud and AI infrastructure services.
Yahoo
12-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wholesale Inflation Tamer Than Expected in May
The Producer Price Index showed that wholesale prices rose by 0.1% in May, less than economists expected, while annual wholesale price increases were in line with estimates. A consumer inflation report yesterday also showed prices weren't rising as fast as expected in response to President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Economists did see some signals of increased inflation in the report, especially in rising prices for appliances, computer equipment, machinery, and vehicle are expecting a jump in inflation from President Donald Trump's tariff policies, but once again it failed to show up in the latest pricing data. Prices at the wholesale level came in lower than expected in May. That comes after yesterday's consumer pricing data also failed to reveal an expected jump in inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index (PPI) showed prices rose 0.1% in May from April. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires expected a larger increase of 0.2%. The April reading showed wholesale prices were down 0.2% from the prior month. On an annual basis, wholesale prices in May grew by 2.6%, in line with projections by Wells Fargo economists and an increase from last month's reading of 2.4%. Core wholesale inflation, which takes out volatile food and fuel prices, also increased less than expected in May. "Concerns about widespread increases in producer prices due to tariffs continue to be dissuaded. Cheaper costs for diesel and jet fuel helped to mute the headline gains with total intermediate goods only up modestly in May," Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers wrote. While price pressures continue to remain tame, economists said the report did show signs that inflation is working its way through the system following the implementation of U.S. tariffs. The report noted that prices for machinery and vehicle wholesaling jumped 2.9%, while appliances and computer equipment costs also rose in May. "The softer headline gain for the PPI in May hides much of the underlying cost pressures faced by producers. Tariff impacts are steadily flowing into prices for inputs, especially for metals, which is raising production costs for machinery and vehicles," Ayers added. Read the original article on Investopedia Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
