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NBC Sports
7 days ago
- Sport
- NBC Sports
2025 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Preview: Make or break for Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins gave us more of the same in 2024. They were dynamite when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy and a disaster when their quarterback was out of the lineup. Business as usual. Despite the spreadsheets going brrr, the design of the offense was vastly different, creating jaw-dropping risks for fantasy managers in 2025. 2024 Miami Dolphins Stats (Rank) Points per game: 20.3 (22nd) Total yards per game: 325.4 (18th) Plays per game: 63.6 (9th) Dropbacks per game: 42 (9th) Dropback EPA per play: 0.09 (15th) Rush attempts per game: 26.4 (19th) Rush EPA per play: -0.25 (31st) Tua on the hot seat The Dolphins played two games with Tua to start the year before he suffered a concussion that landed him on injured reserve. That sent Miami scrambling and left them with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. The move, in turn, forced them into a check-down scheme for the ages. Their team aDOT of 6.7 was the third-lowest of the last decade. Head coach and offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel schemed up easy throws for his backups and kept that philosophy in place even when Tua was active in the second half of the season. This resulted in career receiving numbers for Jonnu Smith and De'Von Achane, but the wide receivers were left hanging. Injuries were also an issue on the other side of the ball, but Miami's defense held on and finished the regular season ranked eighth in EPA per play. We're probably discussing at least a playoff loss for the Phins if McDaniel knew how to get more out of his backup quarterbacks. Instead, McDaniel is on the hot seat and Tua's career is on the ropes. Passing Game It's hard to stress this enough, but Tua was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league last year. Tagovailoa ranked: EPA per play - 7th Completion percent over expected - 8th Adjusted completion rate - 2nd Huntley, on the other hand, couldn't match that production. He ranked: EPA per play - 37th Completion percent over expected - 12th Adjusted completion rate - 12th Huntley showed some ability to execute what was asked of him, but, at the end of the day, his efficiency was putrid. That's to say nothing of a single dreadful start made by Skylar Thompson and a few comically futile snaps from Tom Boyle. As expected, all of the Miami players experienced drastic splits with and without Tua. Will Tagovailoa play a full season this year? Who knows. He's undoubtedly more prone to concussions and likely to spend longer on the bench when that does happen than the average passer. In redraft—where you can cut players at will—his availability is not an issue. The 2024 passing yardage leader is free money as the QB22. The risk becomes much more tangible in Best Ball drafts where you are stuck with him for the entire season. Moving to his receivers, Miami simply gave up on their explosive passing game last year, leaving both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle out to dry. Hill's falloff from 3.72 yards per route to 1.75 is one of the most dramatic falloffs of the past decade. If Hill's woes were exclusively related to his wrist injury or the design of the Miami offense, he could easily bounce back as a WR1 in 2025. He started to pick up the slack at the end of the season with two 100-yard games over the final five weeks. On the other hand, if he simply lost a step as the league's premier speed receiver, his days as an elite fantasy asset are over. Waddle experienced a similar dropoff in efficiency—cratering from 2.5 YPRR to 1.5—but he's five years younger than Hill. You wouldn't expect him to be past his prime already, though that's not entirely impossible. Waddle is going at a discount compared to his 2024 ADP, but drafters are far more confident in him rebounding compared to Hill. He has fallen 24 spots versus last year while Hill is down 20 spots. Given the value of early-round picks, that's a massive discount for Hill and only a modest markdown for Waddle. Hill offers a better ceiling outcome and comes at a better price relative to his 2024 cost. If you want to gamble on this offense, he's your man. Miami only had one other relevant pass-catcher last year—Jonnu Smith—and they just sent him packing to Pittsburgh. Smith emerged as a premier checkdown option in Miami's stunted offense. He averaged a 6.9/67/.9 receiving line over the final eight weeks of the season. Even including his slow start, only four tight ends averaged more yards per route than Jonnu (1.95) on the season. The Dolphins lured Darren Waller out of retirement to replace Smith. Waller averaged 1.55 YPRR, 9.4 PPR points per game, and had a 73.1 PFF receiving grade in his final season with the Giants in 2023. All three marks were top-15 among tight ends. He could be a viable seam-stretcher for Miami if he still has some juice in 2025, but it's hard to bet on a player who last played an (almost) full season in 2020 and has spent more time in the past year pursuing a rap career than professional football. Malik Washington's 2024 stats tell you all you need to know about Miami's WR3. He averaged .86 YPRR, good for 105th in the NFL. That put him just a handful of spots ahead of dead last among wide receivers. He wasn't bad with the ball in his hands. The rookie posted 4.7 yards after the catch per reception, placing him 38th among qualified wideouts. He simply couldn't earn a target to save his life in a crowded pass-catching room. Whether he or free agent addition Nick Westbrook-Ikhine wins the WR3 job is immaterial to fantasy managers. Running Game Miami's underwhelming passing output was surprising, but their dead-on-arrival ground game was shocking. Their -.21 EPA per play average on rush attempts ranked 315th out of 320 team-seasons over the past decade. Raheem Mostert ran for 18 touchdowns at 4.8 YPC in 2023. He found the end zone twice at 3.3 YPC last year. Achane, the team's lightning-in-a-bottle on the ground, went from 7.8 YPC—the highest market for a running back with at least 100 attempts in NFL history—to 4.5. Achane also set the record in NFL Next Gen's rush yards over expected metric at 2.87 per carry two years ago. The previous high-water mark was 1.86. He fell to -.42 RYOE per attempt in 2024, one of the worst marks in the league. While some of this can be chalked up to Achane running hotter than the sun as a rookie, a large part of his decline has to be blamed on the environment. Miami's stuff rate (carries stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage) was 29.3 percent last year, the fourth-highest mark of the past decade. Achane is a back who thrives on clear runways but doesn't have the power to turn small losses into modest gains. With the team's offensive line collapsing and the threat of a deep shot vanishing from the passing attack, Achane never had a chance to show off his home run speed last year. The good news is that he became a de facto third receiver for the Phins by leading all running backs in slot routes (120) and wide routes (58). Achane caught 78 balls for 592 yards and six scores. He led all running backs in all three categories, allowing him to finish as the PPR RB5 despite the poor rushing metrics. With Jonnu gone, his receiving role gives him an unprecedented floor. The upside for elite efficiency also gives him an immense ceiling. Jaylen Wright appears to be in line for the RB2 role with Mostert being cut early in the offseason. Like Achane, Wright's rushing metrics were underwhelming to say the least. He averaged a paltry 3.7 YPC on 68 attempts as a rookie. Miami only spent a sixth-round pick on Ollie Gordon and $1.4 million on Alexander Mattison as potential replacements for the backup job. GM Chris Grier traded a future third-round pick to move up for Wright in the fourth round last year. He isn't guaranteed the backup gig or any standalone work, but an RB51 pricetag is a minimal cost for a likely handcuff in an offense built on efficiency. 2025 Miami Dolphins Win Total DraftKings Over/Under: 7.5 Pick: Under (-105) The Dolphins are an all-or-nothing team. Either Tua stays healthy and the team excels or he misses time, McDaniel is fired, and the team looks to reset in 2026. I'd take the under on them this year, given the fragility of Tagovailoa's health and the potential for Hill to be over the Hill (pun intended). If you want to bet overs, taking a long shot like +750 to win the AFC East makes more sense than a simple win total play.
NBC Sports
11-05-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Fantasy Fallout: Derek Carr retires, Tyler Shough era begins in New Orleans
In a stunning turn of events, Derek Carr announced his retirement from the NFL on Saturday. Carr was still recovering from a shoulder injury and seemed to be at odds with the Saints' front office. A clean break was for the best and the Saints now get to move on to the Tyler Shough era. Let's look at the fantasy implication of Carr's sudden retirement for the entire offense. Saints Quarterback Room The Saints spent the No. 40 overall pick on Shough, giving him the best chance of starting Week 1. The other contenders on the roster are Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler. The pair of former Day Three picks ranked nearly dead last in the league in both EPA per dropback and completion percent over expected. If Shough enters the NFL and is the worst quarterback in the league, he will still be in the same ballpark as his competition in New Orleans. That makes him a fairly good bet to start all 17 games. Before Carr retired, Saints reporter Nick Underhill said, 'I have Shough at 80 percent or higher odds to start 80 percent of the games this year.' Rattler or possibly even Haener could get some playing time late in the year if Shough is a disaster, but the job is his to lose. Tyler Shough Rookie Profile Shough was a seven-year college quarterback, getting his start at Oregon as Justin Herbert's backup. He eventually transferred to Texas Tech but couldn't stay healthy, resulting in three partial seasons. He closed out his NCAA time with a breakout season at Louisville where he threw for 3,195 yards, 23 scores, and six picks. At 6'5/219, Shough has the build of a gunslinger but operates more like a point guard. His pressure to sack rate (9.3 percent) and turnover worthy play rate (1.8) were both top-15 in the country last year. Because he took care of the ball so well, 92 percent of Shough's dropbacks turned into pass attempts, the 15th-highest rate in college football. Shough's deep attempt rate of 15 percent was in line with that of Cam Ward, but he was not nearly as potent as the No. 1 overall pick on these throws. Pro Football Focus graded Shough as their No. 31 passer on deep shots. His completion rate of 36.7 percent ranked 73rd out of 150 qualified passers. Shough graded as a top-10 passer on intermediate throws but attempted that at nearly the lowest rate in the country. He made his money on short throws, putting up 1,322 yards and 10 touchdowns on these attempts, both of which ranked top 10 in the nation. The former Cardinal ran a stellar 4.61 Forty at the combine but rarely showed off that speed in college. He ran for just 132 yards and one score last year. Shough is ultimately a distributor with a low floor and ceiling, but he's also free in all formats. He makes for a great flyer in dynasty leagues and is a viable QB3 in Best Ball. Saints Fantasy Outlook While a seventh-year, second-round quarterback doesn't sound like a fun time for his skill position teammates, Shough's profile is that of a passer who can at least get the ball in his receivers' hands at a high clip. That will start with Chris Olave. The former first-round pick saw 44.4 percent of his targets on short throws last year. He led the Saints in targets, catches, and yards on short attempts despite playing in just eight games. Olave has finished top 15 in ESPN's Open Score in every year of his career. He ranks 46th in NFL history in receiving yards through 39 games (his current total). That sandwiches him between Amari Cooper and Tee Higgins. All of our fancy stats and historical comparisons say Olave is a good wide receiver with the potential to be great, although that dream is fading by the year. Olave is a safe bet for a high target share and still has the potential to be the star we thought he was when New Orleans drafted him with the No. 11 overall pick. Coming off the board as a mid-range WR3 in early fantasy drafts, Olave remains a target. Rashid Shaheed, on the other hand, is not in as good of a spot. Of his 40 targets in 2024, 37.5 percent came on deep shots, giving him the fourth-highest deep target rate in the league. He is coming off a season-ending meniscus injury and the Saints' presumptive starter ranked 10th in deep passing grade out of the 12 quarterbacks who were drafted. Shaheed is still the clear favorite to be the Saints' WR2, but his ability to flip fantasy matchups in one play will be muted with Shough under center. Last but not least, the relentless targeting of Alvin Kamara has no end in sight. Kamara ranked second in the NFL in yards per route run (1.8) last year and led all running backs in targets (89). He ran the third-most slot routes among running backs and paced the league in targets beyond the line of scrimmage for a halfback. The rookie will have no issues peppering Kamara with targets and, in turn, PPR points this year.
Yahoo
06-05-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football is here for the 2025 NFL season: Sign up to play!
Fantasy Football is here for the 2025 NFL season: Sign up to play! It's been another memorable NFL offseason, and the draft is fast approaching — which can only mean one thing: fantasy football season is upon us. We're excited to announce that Yahoo Fantasy Football is officially open for the 2025 season! That's right, the wait is over. It's time to create or join a league and get ready for the championship-caliber squads you're going to draft — not to mention the competition, bragging rights and all the fun playing fantasy football provides! [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Everything you love is back for the 2025 version of our game. But even if you're new to fantasy football and/or need a refresher on how to play, we have you covered. Live now Coming soon Live drafts Survival Football Best Ball April 24-26: 2025 NFL Draft September 4: First regular-season game Amped to build some teams now? You can practice with a mock draft to get ready for the real thing. You can also start prepping with our 2025 fantasy football rankings. And that's just the beginning of our draft content. We will be delivering all kinds of advice leading up to the season from some of the best analysts in the business, including Matt Harmon, Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don and Scott Pianowski. Once the action kicks off, we'll keep you up to speed all season long with waiver wire targets, trade tips, start-sit advice, emerging trends and much more so you can stay ahead of the competition on your journey toward that coveted fantasy football trophy! So stay locked in with Yahoo Fantasy for everything you'll need to make this a season to remember. And be sure to sign up for our fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! for tips all season long. You can also follow us on X and Instagram. Now go join or create a league and let the fun begin. Happy Fantasy Football season!
New York Times
27-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Fantasy football 2025 NFL Draft player grades: Every pick from Cam Ward to Brashard Smith and more
The 2025 NFL Draft might be done, but the excitement is still bubbling over. It's time for NFL draft grades for fantasy football. If you haven't seen this piece from past years, each player gets two grades. The first draft grade is redraft-only value (2025). The second is the player's dynasty grade/potential. Advertisement The draft grades are weighted in tiers of sorts. A's are your stars — players who can or will become a No. 1 at their position (RB1, TE1, etc.). For B's, we're talking about second and some third-tier starters in all leagues. When we get to C's, those are fringe starters, maybe some boom/bust plays, etc. D's are waiver wire players with maybe some Best Ball or the rare bye week/matchup play potential. Any player graded lower is a non-factor in fantasy. For those wanting to go deeper, you can find my fantasy football winners, losers and analysis of the fantasy-relevant picks here. OVERVIEW: Neither the Cardinals nor the Falcons added any fantasy relevant players. OVERVIEW: N/A OVERVIEW: Status quo for the Ravens offense, as Wester is a depth weapon. OVERVIEW: Nothing of major note, as Hawes and Prather are depth additions and unlikely fantasy contributors. OVERVIEW: The big name is McMillan, who can be an immediate WR2 and future WR1. Don't overlook Etienne factoring into the RB touches. Evans' peak is Dalton Schultz and Horn is a depth add. OVERVIEW: Loveland has TE1 upside and could make noise late in 2025. Burden gives Caleb Williams a great trio of wideouts and puts Rome Odunze on notice. Monangai could grab the No. 2 RB role and work into RB3 value as a timeshare — a lesser David Montgomery for Ben Johnson in Chicago, if you will. OVERVIEW: I compared Brooks to Chase Brown in my predraft write-up, which keeps Brown safe and gives Brooks intrigue if something happened to Brown. OVERVIEW: Judkins is an immediate RB2 with the potential for more, but Sampson could work in as a complementary piece for RB4 value and cap Judkins as an RB2. Fannin has TE1 potential and is a name to watch next year when David Njoku is a free agent. Sanders still has Geno Smith potential, and this slide could be motivation to push for Jared Goff-like value. OVERVIEW: Blue is as explosive as they come and is interesting given the current backfield of Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders. Mafah is a timeshare piece at best. OVERVIEW: Harvey is Sean Payton's new Alvin Kamara, though a slightly lesser version, making him an interesting pick for RB2 value with an RB3 floor. Bryant is another big receiver for Bo Nix but likely no more than a fantasy WR4. I wanted to put the confused monkey thing as a GIF for Lohner. OVERVIEW: TeSlaa could be quite interesting as a WR3 if Jameson Williams is out of Detroit next year. Lovett is just depth at receiver. OVERVIEW: Golden has game-breaking speed and can be what the Packers wanted Christian Watson to be, but he's no guarantee. Williams is Curtis Samuel meets Cordarrelle Patterson and can bring WR4 value. OVERVIEW: Higgins should step in as the Texans' No. 2 receiver with immediate WR4 value, or more. Noel can push Christian Kirk for the slot role, and could be the No. 3 next year if Tank Dell doesn't return well from injury. Marks has a chance to take the No. 2 RB role from Dameon Pierce. Mertz and Lachey are developmental. OVERVIEW: Warren has TE1 upside but could struggle to reach his ceiling with Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones at QB. Giddens should take the Jonathan Taylor backup role and has RB2 upside if Taylor is hurt. Leonard brings rushing upside and could have similar numbers to Jones if he ever starts. OVERVIEW: As long as Hunter plays 90% of the offensive snaps, he should be a WR3 at worst with Top 15 upside. Tuten and Allen make the backfield a bigger headache than ever before for fantasy managers to navigate, but Tuten has serious speed. OVERVIEW: It's the Chiefs, so Royals and Smith are worth stashing in dynasty and deep, deep redraft leagues (reminder that Isiah Pacheco shared with Kareem Hunt after his return, so the backfield isn't a certainty). OVERVIEW: Jeanty is an immediate Top 10 RB. Bech would be a Top 30 WR if he was the No. 2 option, which could happen as early as late this year. Thornton is a big-play machine but needs to be a top-two wideout on the Raiders to carry WR4 value. Mellott and Miller are lottery tickets for the Raiders. OVERVIEW: Hampton will push for an immediate timeshare and could take the lead this year with Top 20 potential and RB1 upside if Najee Harris gets hurt/is gone next year. Tre Harris brings his downfield ability for potential WR4 value if he wins the No. 2 job. Lambert-Smith will be a developmental player, as is Gadsden, who could hit as early as 2026. OVERVIEW: Ferguson has mid-to-upper TE2 potential, maybe even as a rookie, given the landing spot. Hunter can be Kyren Williams' backup immediately, and that makes him a premier backup pick in fantasy. Mumpfield is great after the catch and a worthy dynasty flier. OVERVIEW: Gordon would be an RB3 if timesharing with De'Von Achane or Jaylen Wright, but otherwise is a dynasty stash. Ewers, if healthy and starting, would be a mid-level QB2. OVERVIEW: Felton has Xavier Worthy similarities, so remember that if Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison gets hurt. Bartholomew is an athletic, developmental tight end. OVERVIEW: Henderson is as explosive as running backs come and has RB2 value even on mid-teen touches per game. Williams gives Drake Maye another weapon to help his breakout, and Williams can be a Marquez Valdes-Scantling type WR4 by 2026. OVERVIEW: Shough might start this year, given Derek Carr's injury, and would be a mid-QB2. Neal is interesting with his ability and the chance to be the timeshare piece to Alvin Kamara. Matavao is a developmental tight end. OVERVIEW: Dart has all the potential and concerns of Daniel Jones, and he might not start until 2026. Skattebo should push to be the lead RB immediately, potentially bringing RB2 value and pushing Tyrone Tracy to RB3 value. Fidone is another of many developmental tight ends. OVERVIEW: Taylor should win the starting tight end job, and if so, he'd be a high-end TE2. Smith, like Taylor, has an opportunity to push for meaningful snaps and be their version of Rashid Shaheed. OVERVIEW: McCord's ceiling is Bo Nix without similar rushing upside. OVERVIEW: Johnson should replace Najee Harris, putting up RB2 numbers and keeping Jaylen Warren in a timeshare with RB3 value. Howard has some Kenny Pickett to his game, but could hit unlike Pickett, and be a mid QB2. OVERVIEW: Like the Chiefs, the 49ers make you pay attention to every skill pick, but Watkins and James are particularly interesting with Watkins being a slot with WR3 potential if he's a top-two wideout for the 49ers, and James having the ability to push Isaac Guerendo for the backup job. OVERVIEW: Arroyo can be a matchup problem and back-end TE1 in time. Milroe has Lamar Jackson rushing upside with better rushing touchdown potential, but needs to develop his passing ability … and he might never work out. Horton can be a boom/bust WR4/5 in 2-3 years. Ouzts is likely fantasy irrelevant but Martinez could be intriguing if Kenneth Walker doesn't return in 2026. OVERVIEW: Egbuka is a great receiver in a tough spot. He ruins Jalen McMillan's fantasy potential, but Egbuka could be a Top 25 wideout if Mike Evans gets hurt (or is gone in 2026) and/or Chris Godwin misses time again. Tez Johnson is Tank Dell and a depth weapon in real life. OVERVIEW: The Titans did all they could to help Ward succeed immediately, and he has fringe QB1 upside. Dike, Helm, Ayomanor and Mullings are all future depth, but Helm could be the top tight end next year if Chig Okonkwo fails to break out. Dike is a Hail Mary WR4/5 type. Ayomanor is buried but has Robert Woods WR3-value potential and Mullings is a power back, needing timeshare work for RB3 value. OVERVIEW: Lane is very fast and at best, likely carries Tyler Boyd-like WR4 value. Croskey-Merritt has good speed, but is pretty straight-line and a timeshare RB, who would be an RB2/3 at best, if the lead of that timeshare.
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
Fantasy Football is here for the 2025 NFL season: Sign up to play!
Fantasy Football is here for the 2025 NFL season: Sign up to play! It's been another memorable NFL offseason, and the draft is fast approaching — which can only mean one thing: fantasy football season is upon us. We're excited to announce that Yahoo Fantasy Football is officially open for the 2025 season! That's right, the wait is over. It's time to create or join a league and get ready for the championship-caliber squads you're going to draft — not to mention the competition, bragging rights and all the fun playing fantasy football provides! [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Everything you love is back for the 2025 version of our game. But even if you're new to fantasy football and/or need a refresher on how to play, we have you covered. Live now Coming soon Live drafts Survival Football Best Ball April 24-26: 2025 NFL Draft September 4: First regular-season game Amped to build some teams now? You can practice with a mock draft to get ready for the real thing. You can also start prepping with our 2025 fantasy football rankings. And that's just the beginning of our draft content. We will be delivering all kinds of advice leading up to the season from some of the best analysts in the business, including Matt Harmon, Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don and Scott Pianowski. Once the action kicks off, we'll keep you up to speed all season long with waiver wire targets, trade tips, start-sit advice, emerging trends and much more so you can stay ahead of the competition on your journey toward that coveted fantasy football trophy! So stay locked in with Yahoo Fantasy for everything you'll need to make this a season to remember. And be sure to sign up for our fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! for tips all season long. You can also follow us on X and Instagram. Now go join or create a league and let the fun begin. Happy Fantasy Football season!
