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Economic Times
04-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Realty rally may have peaked, go for stock-specific bets: Analysts
The real estate sector faces challenges as the Nifty Realty index underperforms the benchmark Nifty in 2025. FY25 witnessed a volume decline despite value growth, impacted by election-related project delays and launch drops, particularly in Hyderabad and Mumbai. While valuations remain high, analysts anticipate potential improvements in FY26 with resolved supply issues and expected lower home loan rates. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Mumbai: As a broad, sectoral investment theme, real estate may have already had its best run in the current upcycle with analysts suggesting specific stocks that provide growth and earnings comfort amid elevated valuations. Nifty Realty index is down 8.5% in 2025 so far, compared with 7% gains for the benchmark Nifty. On Thursday, the realty index ended 0.7% lower. It has declined 4.5% in the last five trading sessions."In FY25, the real estate sector saw a 3% decline in volumes, even as value grew 10%. After years of strong momentum, the election year led to project approval delays and a 13% drop in launches, with Hyderabad and Mumbai more affected than NCR (national capital region) and Bangalore," said Pankaj Kumar, VP - fundamental research at Kotak said while due to this, stocks of most listed players have corrected, valuations still aren't very comfortable in the some analysts said FY26 may be better in terms of business for these companies."With the supply-side issues largely resolved and lower home loan rates expected to boost demand, our outlook for the sector is cautiously positive. However, valuations still remain elevated for most companies," said Anil R, research analyst at Geojit Investments. Real estate companies like Anant Raj, Oberoi Realty Godrej Properties , and Brigade Enterprises have declined 15-36% this Bhowar, senior director — head of equities at Waterfield Advisors, said the market is currently in the fifth year of the typical eight year real-estate cycle, and the most recent one began in 2020. 'In the first four years, real estate stocks, along with cement and steel companies, tend to rally on new project launches. In the following four years, as projects near completion, investors often book profits and capital shifts to ancillary sectors such as tiles, plywood, paints, electrical goods and housing finance companies,' said Bhowar. The Nifty Realty index had gone up almost 81% and 34% in 2023 and 2024, Kumar said he remains positive on select names. 'DLF has a strong launch pipeline and land reserves, and our fair value for the stock is `1,020. Macrotech has guided for 20% growth this year, we value it at `1,480. Prestige, after a weak FY25, is well-positioned to rebound as it has several launches lined up, and our fair value for the share is `1,700,' he said. Kumar's targets imply an upside of 6-23% in these stocks. 'While upside may be limited in the near term, these stocks can be added on dips,' he said. Anil R of Geojit prefers Brigade Enterprises and Prestige Estates for their stable rental income and robust FY26 launch pipelines. 'We recommend investors consider booking profits in real estate stocks and reallocating to its ancillary segments,' said Bhowar.
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
FIIs buy stocks worth Rs 8,710 crore this week, narrow June sell-off to Rs 4,192 crore
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in June so far, offloading equities worth Rs 4,192 crore. However they turned buyers this week, buying shares worth Rs 8,710 crore. A strong buying activity on Friday unleashed the bulls as the Indian headline indices ended their three-session losing streak led by action in banks, energy and IT stocks. The FII activity on the NSE, BSE and MSEI in the capital market segment triggered purchases worth Rs 7,940.70 from the foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) preferred to book profits as they sold domestic stocks amounting to Rs 3,049.88 crore. Nifty gained 319.15 points or 1.29% to close at 25,112.40, the 30-stock S&P BSE Sensex finished at 82,408.17, rising by 1,046.30 points or 1.29% riding on individual contributions from heavyweights HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL). Commenting on the current trends, Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director-Listed Investments at Waterfield Advisors, said that the ongoing FPI pattern suggests a reversal in April, with considerable strength being demonstrated in May. "The inflows recorded in May represented the highest level observed in eight months, signifying a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets," he said. However, geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between Israel and Iran, alongside global uncertainties, fostered a cautiously optimistic pattern in June, Bhowar said. Live Events With the stabilisation in the global conditions, India may experience more sustained and stable foreign portfolio investment inflows in the future on the back of enhancing domestic fundamentals and a favourable long-term growth outlook, he opined. There are six more sessions left in June and their action would determine if they remain net buyers for the third successive month. In the fortnight ending June 15, FIIs sold local shares worth Rs 5,404 crore. The biggest takeaway was the financial services sectors where FIIs returned to buying with a purchase worth Rs 4,685 core versus a Rs 700 crore sell-off in the previous fortnight. The energy sector also saw good traction with Rs 1,199 crore worth of equity bought between June 1 and June 15 from Rs 390 crore in the previous fortnight. Among the worst hit was telecom, where FIIs were net sellers at Rs 887 crore versus a Rs 7,052 core investment between May 16 and May 31. Auto, consumer durables and FMCG were other big laggards. In 2025, FIIs have offloaded shares valuing Rs 96,683 crore. In the January-to-March quarter, equities worth Rs 1,16,574 were sold. ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) ETMarkets WhatsApp channel )
Economic Times
21-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
FIIs buy stocks worth Rs 8,710 crore this week, narrow June sell-off to Rs 4,192 crore
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in June so far, offloading equities worth Rs 4,192 crore. However they turned buyers this week, buying shares worth Rs 8,710 crore. ADVERTISEMENT A strong buying activity on Friday unleashed the bulls as the Indian headline indices ended their three-session losing streak led by action in banks, energy and IT stocks. The FII activity on the NSE, BSE and MSEI in the capital market segment triggered purchases worth Rs 7,940.70 from the foreign buyers. Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) preferred to book profits as they sold domestic stocks amounting to Rs 3,049.88 crore. Nifty gained 319.15 points or 1.29% to close at 25,112.40, the 30-stock S&P BSE Sensex finished at 82,408.17, rising by 1,046.30 points or 1.29% riding on individual contributions from heavyweights HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL). Commenting on the current trends, Vipul Bhowar, Senior Director-Listed Investments at Waterfield Advisors, said that the ongoing FPI pattern suggests a reversal in April, with considerable strength being demonstrated in May. "The inflows recorded in May represented the highest level observed in eight months, signifying a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Indian markets," he geopolitical tensions, including the conflict between Israel and Iran, alongside global uncertainties, fostered a cautiously optimistic pattern in June, Bhowar the stabilisation in the global conditions, India may experience more sustained and stable foreign portfolio investment inflows in the future on the back of enhancing domestic fundamentals and a favourable long-term growth outlook, he opined. ADVERTISEMENT There are six more sessions left in June and their action would determine if they remain net buyers for the third successive the fortnight ending June 15, FIIs sold local shares worth Rs 5,404 crore. The biggest takeaway was the financial services sectors where FIIs returned to buying with a purchase worth Rs 4,685 core versus a Rs 700 crore sell-off in the previous fortnight. The energy sector also saw good traction with Rs 1,199 crore worth of equity bought between June 1 and June 15 from Rs 390 crore in the previous fortnight. ADVERTISEMENT Among the worst hit was telecom, where FIIs were net sellers at Rs 887 crore versus a Rs 7,052 core investment between May 16 and May 31. Auto, consumer durables and FMCG were other big 2025, FIIs have offloaded shares valuing Rs 96,683 crore. In the January-to-March quarter, equities worth Rs 1,16,574 were sold. ADVERTISEMENT (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Economic Times
21-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Mystery on the tracks! The curious case of rail stocks riding the defence wave without a ticket
Railway stocks have surged mysteriously alongside defence counters post Operation Sindoor, despite no new capex push or policy trigger. Experts suggest this may be sentiment-driven, with momentum chasing outweighing fundamentals. While some draw a strategic defence-railways link, others caution against frothy valuations and retail exuberance. The rally echoes past manias, prompting many institutional investors to stay cautious. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads What's fuelling this strange correlation? Market veterans are raising eyebrows. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads As defence stocks roared after Operation Sindoor 's success, a mysterious rally unfolded on Dalal Street. Railway stocks, seemingly unconnected to missiles and military manoeuvres, surged alongside their battlefield counterparts. No big policy move. No fresh budget boost. No mega headline. And yet, stocks like Titagarh Rail and RITES climbed over 36% in just 6 trading numbers are hard to ignore. Defence stocks added Rs 1.8 lakh crore in market cap after India's successful military operation against Pakistan. Rail stocks weren't far behind with Rs 90,000 crore in gains. IRCON and RVNL jumped more than 30% between May 9 and 19 before profit booking took over on Tuesday. RailTel, Texmaco Rail, Jupiter Wagons, IRFC and BEML were all swept up in the rally. The same pattern had played out during the 2024 bull market — and it's back, without much in the way of new Bhowar, Head of Equities at Waterfield Advisors, believes the recent jump in railway stocks is less about fundamentals and more about investor sentiment. He points out that most railway stocks had corrected sharply from their 2024 peaks, falling 30% to 50%. Despite solid order books, there hasn't been a meaningful increase in the government's railway capex allocation. What we're seeing now, he says, is classic retail exuberance with traders chasing momentum rather than not obvious at first glance, the defence-railway link isn't entirely imagined Vikas Gupta of OmniScience Capital argues that the rise in rail stocks may well be an extension of the broader defence theme. With Operation Sindoor still potentially active, there is likely increased focus on logistics, mobilisation and connectivity — all of which require railway infrastructure. From troop movement to specialised military freight, the railways play a silent but strategic role in national Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who wrote 'The Art of War' Book, he said the line between disorder and order lies in logistics. Therefore, Gupta said there are a lot of opportunities around other dimensions of defence beyond the pure-play weapons even he cautions that sentiment may be running ahead of exuberance is drawing comparisons to last year's mania, where PSU stocks — defence, rail, infra — all rallied on the promise of capex and Atmanirbhar Bharat theme. The euphoria, back then, ended with a painful also flags that while the structural story of Indian railways remains strong, many stocks are now trading above historical valuations. These companies are tethered to government orders and follow long business cycles. Without a meaningful spike in earnings or fresh policy announcements, current prices look concern is echoed by Akshay Badjate of Merisis PMS, who sees parallels between today's rally and the overheated peaks of 2024. He notes that while the railways sector is supported by a Rs 2.5 lakh crore budget and expected to see 15% revenue growth, stocks like IRFC — trading at 3.5x price-to-book despite stagnant earnings — are flashing warning signs. In his view, the current rally is being propped up more by investor frenzy than institutional investors have already stepped back. At Merisis, Badjate says the fund has adopted a 'wait and watch' stance on PSU capex plays, instead allocating capital to under-owned sectors like housing finance, pharmaceuticals, agri and metals — areas they believe offer better Kotak Institutional Equities has sounded the alarm. Sanjeev Prasad's recent note warned of irrational exuberance gripping the market, with mid- and small-caps — and particularly 'narrative stocks' like defence — trading at frothy valuations. He points out that the market has repeatedly bought into half-baked stories, only to be burned when the narrative are, of course, genuine tailwinds. Tube Investments recently announced a Rs 1,000 crore train set contract — a deal that could revive momentum in its metal-formed division. But one deal does not make a sector-wide is the defence-rail connection real or just a narrative investors are desperate to believe? What's clear is that in the current market, stocks need no justification. A story is enough. And right now, railways and defence are Dalal Street's hottest plot twist.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
