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Hans India
4 days ago
- Politics
- Hans India
Nitish swings, Rahul sinks, Tejaswi thinks — Bihar blinks
Bihar—once the land of monasteries and now the crucible of caste arithmetic and coalition chaos—is gearing up like a chessboard for the high-stakes 2025 Assembly elections. Every district, every demographic, and every caste bloc are under scrutiny as parties strategise for what is shaping up to be a crucial political showdown. These elections are pivotal not just for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress but also for the crumbling remnants of the so-called INDIA alliance. The latter, plagued by cracks and competing egos, has already begun showing signs of collapse. While AAP has severed ties, left parties stated that Rahul (Gandhi) was still immature and cannot hold the bloc together. Bihar will not just decide the fate of alliances—it will test the relevance of legacies. At the heart of this election stands Nitish Kumar, the longest-serving Chief Minister of Bihar and the chief of Janata Dal (United). While JD(U)'s popularity has waned, the 'Nitish brand' still resonates—especially among the Kurmi community and certain EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) segments. But his age, health, and repeated political somersaults have become talking points for both the media and the opposition. Questions about his succession plan and staying in power are more relevant than ever. Meanwhile, the BJP is aggressively trying to reclaim lost ground. Though it lacks a charismatic chief ministerial face, the party is banking on its core Hindutva base, support from upper castes (notably Bhumihars and Rajputs), outreach to Pasmanda Muslims, and the patriotic afterglow of Operation Sindhoor. The operation—India's swift and precise airstrike retaliation—continues to be a talking point in their campaign. Yet, without a mass-appeal CM face, BJP's road to Patna remains riddled with uncertainty. On the other side, Tejashwi Yadav's RJD sees an opportunity. Buoyed by the youth and the marginalised, Tejashwi has sharpened the party's focus on job creation and social justice. The party hopes to convert the Muslim-Yadav vote bank into a winning formula. But the challenge remains—how far can it stretch its appeal beyond that loyal core? Without significant inroads into Dalit and non-Yadav OBC segments, RJD risks capping its growth. Let's not forget the battlegrounds. Mithila—The BJP-JD(U) stronghold: The culturally rich Mithilanchal region, anchored by Maithili Brahmins and Bhumihars, is a traditional BJP-JD(U) bastion. Despite chronic issues like floods, unemployment, and out-migration, it holds over 100 assembly seats—making it one of the most electorally decisive zones. Mahagathbandhan's seat arithmetic: In the 2020 elections, RJD won 75 of the 243 Assembly seats, contesting 144. The Congress fared poorly and won only 19 of the 70 it contested. Ironically, CPI(ML) emerged with the best strike rate, bagging 12 of 19. Whether they can retain this momentum remains to be seen. Now, as seat-sharing negotiations begin again, the fault lines are visible. The Congress wants to replicate its 2020 tally by contesting 70 seats, but the RJD is reportedly unwilling to offer more than 50-55. Meanwhile, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is demanding 12 seats in return for its 2024 favour to RJD in Jharkhand—a political barter that exposes the transactional nature of these 'alliances.' The fringe players and X-factors: The fray is further crowded by players like Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraaj, AIMIM, CPI(ML), and AAP. Jan Suraaj, while creating buzz, is unlikely to win more than 10 seats. AIMIM and AAP, contesting independently, may not win big but could dent vote shares across blocs and scramble existing equations. The unique aspect of Bihar politics remains its deeply regional and caste-driven nature. Here, personalities are secondary. Caste is king. Alliances may crack, leaders may change, but social coalitions remain decisive. Congress: Confused and combative: Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, seems stuck in a rhetorical loop. His record keeps skipping—be it his obsession with 'election Chori' in Maharashtra or now in Bihar, where he alleges manipulation under the guise of the Election Commission's voter list revision. About 61 lakh voters were flagged, and instead of engaging constructively, Rahul and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav cry foul, claiming disenfranchisement of the poor. He is even threatening the EC but fails to produce the proof. Its high time he ends this drama. Then there's his bizarre take on Operation Sindhoor. Rahul's line that the operation can't be called a success because it is 'still ongoing' is as absurd as it is desperate. He conveniently forgets that India flattened terror launchpads in 21 minutes, rendered enemy airbases non-functional, and exposed the failure of Pakistan's Shaheen-III missile—while India's Agni missiles struck targets with surgical precision. Rahul's credibility took another hit when he echoed Donald Trump's delusional claim—repeated over 25 times—that he 'brokered peace' between India and Pakistan. Trump, lest we forget, also promoted an AI-generated video falsely showing Barack Obama being arrested. That's the kind of leader Rahul Gandhi chooses to believe. In Parliament, the Congress now seems to be searching for a bahana (excuse) to explain its looming electoral defeat. From protesting Operation Sindhoor to creating noise over Vice- President Jagdeep Dhankhar's resignation—amid rumours that he drifted towards the Congress after the no-confidence motion and which allegedly prompted the government to demand his resignation or threaten dismissal—the party's actions reek of confusion. Meanwhile, it appears to have forgotten a key political reality: in Bihar, it remains a junior partner with steadily declining influence, especially among upper castes, Muslims, and Dalits in districts like Kishanganj, Supaul, and Katihar. In the volatile Kosi and Anga regions—especially Saharsa, Madhepura, and Bhagalpur—unpredictable caste dynamics could favour the RJD. These zones are traditionally swing regions and will be closely watched. This election is not just about governance. It's about reclaiming lost relevance, stitching (or severing) alliances and redefining Bihar's future. The battle will be fought not merely in rallies or manifestos but across caste corridors, flood-prone towns, backward blocks, and shifting political sands. What remains constant is Bihar's ability to surprise, to resist predictability, and to defy national narratives. And that, perhaps, is its truest political character. (The author is former Chief Editor of The Hans India)
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Business Standard
15-07-2025
- Politics
- Business Standard
Bihar elections 2025: What's at stake, who's competing, and why it counts
As Bihar prepares for Assembly elections later this year, the state's political landscape is being readied like a chessboard, with every block, every region, every demographic under strategic scrutiny. The 2025 polls come at a pivotal moment: Nitish Kumar, the most enduring face of Bihar politics in the 21st century, finds himself once again repositioned. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is out to reclaim lost ground. Meanwhile, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) under Tejashwi Yadav seeks to convert momentum into a mandate, and smaller players, including the CPI(ML), Congress, and regional outfits forming the INDI alliance, are eyeing specific pockets to punch above their weight. What makes Bihar unique is not just the political personalities, but the deeply regionalised and caste-segmented structure of its polity. To understand Bihar, one must understand its geography, its social structure, and its political past. Who are the big players in Bihar Assembly polls 2025? Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] Historically led by Nitish Kumar, Bihar's longest-serving chief minister, the JD(U) has formed the core of the alliance in Bihar for the last two decades. While its popularity has waned and it has shifted alliances, from NDA to Mahagathbandhan and back, the Nitish brand still resonates strongly, especially among Kurmi voters and selected EBC segments. His repeated realignments, however, have raised questions about where his political loyalties truly lie. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Long positioned as a junior partner in Bihar's political landscape, the BJP is now aiming to assert its dominance independently post-2020. Its core Hindutva base, upper-caste support (notably Bhumihars, Rajputs), urban communities, and growing overtures to Pasmanda Muslims are all part of its refresh strategy. Riding on the Modi effect and raising the banner of a younger leadership, however, the party still lacks a cross-caste chief ministerial candidate with mass appeal. Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) The largest vote-share earner in the 2020 Assembly, the RJD relies heavily on the combined support of Muslims and Yadavs. Tejashwi Yadav's appeal among the youth and marginalised communities has sharpened the party's focus on job creation. Still, its challenge lies in broadening its base beyond the MY belt, reaching out to Dalits and other backward castes. Indian National Congress A minor but pivotal partner in the Mahagathbandhan, Congress still holds strategic value in alliance arithmetic. Though its traditional influence over upper-caste Muslims and Dalits is diminishing, the party remains strong in specific districts like Kishanganj, Supaul, and Katihar, thanks to organisational depth and local networks. Communist Parties (CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML)) The CPI(ML) has made a comeback in central Bihar, especially in the Bhojpur and Arrah belt, where it won 12 seats in 2020. With a base among landless Dalits, deprived EBCs, and agrarian communities, it campaigns on labour rights, land reform, and social justice. Often seen as the Left's moral compass, its continued influence reflects persistent regional discontent. Smaller caste-based parties, like the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), can tip close contests. Newer entrants, such as those led by Upendra Kushwaha or the JSP, could disrupt established calculations by pulling in votes across the ideological spectrum. What is the electoral roll revision fiasco and how it may impact the Bihar polls? The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar has sparked a fiery political and legal dispute ahead of the 2025 state assembly polls. At the heart of the controversy are rigid documentation requirements by the Election Commission- pushing millions of people, especially those registered after 2003, to show proof of birth and proof of residence, and for anyone born after 1987, parental documents, something many migrants, Dalits, and impoverished people do not have. Critics warn of potential mass exclusion, fearing lakhs may lose their voting rights, particularly among rural and migrant populations. The process's timing, during Bihar's monsoon and migration season, and its rushed execution just months before polls have only added to the concerns. Initial refusal to accept common IDs like Aadhaar or ration cards sparked further backlash until the Supreme Court intervened, ordering the Election Commission to accept them. Also read: Allegations by opposition parties suggest that the process aims to purge voters unlikely to support the ruling NDA, prompting protests, including a statewide shutdown led by national leaders. Legal challenges remain active, with the Supreme Court deferring the final voter list publication to at least July 28, 2025. The EC has acknowledged possible deletions exceeding 350 thousand names, potentially rigging close contests on many seats. In Bihar, where past elections have been quite close, even a small share of voter removal could significantly matter and result in votes moving to one side of the ledger. Depending on the shifts in the voter list, changes in the voters' list could work against the groups that tend to oppose the ruling party. Regional battlegrounds: Where the vote is won Magadh and Bhojpur (Central Bihar) These areas, covering Patna, Arrah, Gaya, are iconic arenas for upper-caste resurgence and Dalit assertion. The CPI(ML) carries considerable weight here, resting on a backdrop of caste-driven political violence. Meanwhile, BJP and JD(U) maintain hold among middle-caste urbanites and bureaucratic networks. Seemanchal (Northeast Bihar) A Muslim-majority belt including Kishanganj, Araria, and Purnia, Seemanchal remains politically volatile. AIMIM's breakthrough in 2020, winning five seats, reinforced the region's distinct identity. However, after defections to RJD, AIMIM largely retained only Amour. Congress and RJD continue to court Muslim voters here through a secular narrative. Mithila (North Bihar) A cultural stronghold anchored by Maithil Brahmins and Bhumihars, Mithilanchal remains a BJP-JD(U) bastion. Yet this region also grapples with floods, out-migration, and unemployment. With over 100 Assembly seats, it remains a decisive electoral zone thanks to its organisational discipline and caste loyalties. Kosi & Anga (East–Southeast Bihar) These swing zones covering Saharsa, Madhepura, Bhagalpur reveal unpredictable caste dynamics. After figures like Sharad Yadav and Pappu Yadav, development and identity politics fight for prominence. The RJD's influence is strong, but the BJP is steadily gaining ground. Saran & Champaran (West–Northwest Bihar) This region embodies traditional RJD and JD(U) dominance via its Yadav population. However, urban hubs such as Motihari and Bettiah have shown increasing support for the BJP. The legacy of Gandhi's Champaran Satyagraha still resonates symbolically. Caste arithmetic: The backbone of Bihar politics Bihar remains firmly defined by caste divisions. Key demographics break down roughly as follows: Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) 36 per cent; Other Backward Classes (OBCs) including Yadavs 14.26 per cent, Kushwaha 4.21 per cent, Kurmi 2.87 per cent, Bania 2.31 per cent; Scheduled Castes 19.65 per cent; Scheduled Tribes 1.68 per cent; Upper Castes including Brahmin 3.65 per cent, Rajput 3.45 per cent, Bhumihar 2.87 per cent, Kayastha 0.60 per cent. Key EBC groups include Mallah 2.6 per cent, Teli 2.81 per cent, Nai 1.59 per cent and Nonia 1.91 per cent. Also read: EC launches new system for faster, accurate voter turnout reporting Electoral alignments: RJD core: Yadavs (around 14-15 per cent) + Muslims (16-17 per cent). BJP base: Upper castes (12-15 per cent). Dalits: split between Mahadalits (JD(U)) and Paswans (LJP). EBCs (~30 per cent+): crucial swing bloc. Kurmis (3-4 per cent): JD(U) remains favoured. Women voters: A quiet yet pivotal majority? Women constituted about 49 per cent of the 7.64 crore electorate in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Nitish Kumar's policies—ranging from panchayat reservation to bicycle incentives and prohibition—were clearly aimed at mobilising this demographic. Women voters in Bihar regularly match or exceed male turnout, making them a significant, though often overlooked, constituency. Their decisions tend to be shaped more by welfare, safety, and economic stability than allegiance to a specific party. Alliances and trust issues: The double-edged sword Coalitional politics in Bihar are notoriously fluid. Nitish Kumar's repeated realignments have fostered suspicion among allies. Although the 2025 race sees the BJP-JD(U) renewing their pact, lingering mistrust casts a shadow. On the other side, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan too struggles with internal coherence, especially among CPI(ML), Congress, and smaller regional outfits. The LJP's fracture between Chirag Paswan and Pashupati Paras remains unresolved, complicating alliance dynamics further. Key themes for the 2025 Bihar election Jobs and migration: Mounting youth unemployment and rural migration Caste census debate: Renewed identity mobilisation among EBCs and OBCs Centre–state dynamics: BJP–JD(U) coordination under central policy and fund flows Leadership vacuum: Uncertainty over post-Nitish faces in JD(U) and BJP Polarisation vs welfare: Hindutva rhetoric versus historical tilt toward social justice Prohibition politics: Alcohol ban's complex gendered and social impact Law and order: Crime rates, custodial deaths, and political violence under scrutiny Urban first-time voters: Aspirational youth moving beyond legacy loyalties As Bihar's 2025 Assembly polls near, the state's politics remains complex, rooted in historic alliances, caste calculus, regional patterns and emergent gender and class aspirations. From caste coalitions to urban resurgence, from left-wing insurgency to Pasmanda overtures, the battle in Bihar is not just for seats; it's for shaping its future story.
News18
03-06-2025
- Politics
- News18
Chirag Paswan's Bihar Gambit: Start By Asking For 45 Seats, Deputy CM 'Dream' In The Long Run?
Last Updated: Sources said LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan is serious about the Bihar assembly polls and is likely to contest from a general seat rather than a traditionally reserved seat The BJP may have made it clear that Nitish Kumar will be chief minister if they win the Bihar assembly election – regardless of the numbers – but Chirag Paswan's desire to leave Delhi and return to state politics is being seen in many quarters as a challenge to the JD(U) leader. Union minister Chirag Paswan, the leader of NDA ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), has been 'positioning" himself to ask for a better share of seats, 45 to be precise, reliable sources told News18. 'Chirag Paswan is aware of the sanctity of an endorsement (of Nitish Kumar) by someone like that of Amit Shah (in the Gopalganj rally). He is not in that race (to become CM), let me be very clear about that. But does he want his party to have a fair deal this election and grow bigger? Yes," said a source on condition of anonymity. Chirag on Monday expressed his intention to contest the assembly election. 'I don't see myself in central politics for too long. My reason for entering politics was Bihar and the people of Bihar. I want to take forward my vision of 'Bihar First, Bihari First'," he said. 'Sometimes, when national leaders contest state elections, it does help the party grow. If my participation helps the alliance and strengthens the NDA's position in Bihar, I will contest," he added. According to sources, Chirag is serious about the election and his party MP Arun Bharti, who is also his brother-in-law, told the media that rather than contesting from a traditionally reserved seat, he will fight from a general seat given he 'represents every segment of society". Sources in LJP (Ram Vilas) said even before their leader's announcement, a quiet audit was being conducted by third parties to find the seat that will ensure a bumper win for him, while also translating into a big help for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Having won from a reserved seat like Jamui and Hajipur (his father Ram Vilas Paswan contested from this seat, which became a bone of contention with his uncle at one point), the Union minister is focused on a general seat like Nawada. 'He will be fighting from Nawada, this Bihar election. It is confirmed," Bharti told News18. The seat has 70,000 Bhumihars, 55,000 Yadavs, 50,000 SC/ST voters and 30,000 each Kushwaha and Muslim voters. It is a mixed constituency that will help him emerge as a face defying Bihar's caste considerations, said people close to him. 'Every alliance leader has the right to operate their party the way they wish to operate. I don't think we need to comment upon it," Bihar BJP president Dilip Jaiswal told News18 in a brief statement, when asked to react to Chirag's intentions. But, why this aggressive push now and can he get 45 seats? Those close to Chirag insisted that he has reason to believe that Nitish Kumar's health may not allow him to complete a full term if the NDA returns to power. In such a scenario, he will have a chance to claim the deputy chief minister's post. At present, he commands a 6 per cent vote share and hopes to increase the bar this time, which is why he wants to bargain hard for 45 seats. Reacting to the seat count, however, a BJP source told News18 that 'we will cross the bridge when it comes". 'It's any alliance partner's right to demand. Last year, after the BJP and JD(U) seat-sharing was done, the BJP had to accommodate smaller allies like the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), led by Mukesh Sahni, from its own quota. Where is the scope? But yes, our leaders will sit with an open mind when the time is right," the source said. In the 2020 election, the JD(U) contested 115 seats but won only 43. The BJP, meanwhile, won 71 out of 110 seats it contested while the HAM won four of seven seats. Vikaasheel Insaan Party won four of the 11 it contested, taking the NDA's score to 125. The LJP, which was part of the NDA, had quit the alliance before the election while the RLSP was also not part of the alliance. First Published: June 03, 2025, 08:30 IST
