Latest news with #BlackSeaGrainInitiative
Forbes
27-06-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Energy Insecurity Threatens Food Production
TOPSHOT - In this picture taken on April 23, 2022, farmer Jinadasa Paranamana works in a paddy field ... More in Tissamaharama, Hambantota district. - Farmers were once big supporters of the Rajapaksas, but a bungled fertiliser ban withered their crops along with their backing for Sri Lanka's previously powerful and popular political clan. - TO GO WITH SriLanka-agriculture-economy-politics-unrest,FOCUS by Aishwarya KUMAR (Photo by Ishara S. KODIKARA / AFP) / TO GO WITH SriLanka-agriculture-economy-politics-unrest,FOCUS by Aishwarya KUMAR (Photo by ISHARA S. KODIKARA/AFP via Getty Images) Prior to Israel's recent attacks on Iran, energy prices and supplies were buffeted by the continuing war between Ukraine and Russia. Following the American bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites, Iran threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, but quickly backed off. Following the Middle East ceasefire declare June 24, energy prices, which did not soar as might have been expected, stabilized, but remain high by recent standards. Brent crude is up more than 10% to over $76/barrel, and diesel in Europe has risen nearly 15%. Like Iran, which targeted the Ashdod power station and the Haifa refinery during its most recent hostilities with Israel, Russia and Ukraine have also made it a point to target each other's vital infrastructure, especially after Ukraine terminated Russian transshipments of natural gas to other parts of Eastern Europe. (Source). Indeed, Ukraine has intensified drone, missile, and bomb attacks on critical Russian infrastructure, from energy depots and logistics railways in Bryansk to major fertilizer plants in the Tula and Stavropol regions. At the same time, Russia has ramped up its bombardment of Ukrainian Black Sea ports and agricultural logistics hubs. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, those two nations, along with Turkey and the United Nations, negotiated the 'Black Sea Grain Initiative' in July 2022 as a way to protect the export of grain to the world. (Source). That deal, however, has not kept the cost of the inputs of food production stable. Russia has continued to strike the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Chornomorsk, which according to media reports have been widely used to launch drones attacking Russian warships. In doing so, they also have hit grain elevators and storage facilities, which had the exact opposite impact from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Globally, fertilizer prices already have risen 11% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to last year, per World Bank data. (Source). Nitrogen fertilizers like urea, essential for crops, jumped over 20%, with potash and phosphate up 18% and 20%, respectively. The recent Ukrainian drone strikes on the Novomoskovsk Azot plant and the Nevinnomyssk Azot plant, which have a combined output comparable to the annual nitrogen fertilizer consumption of France and Germany, have reportedly caused a temporary suspension of operations at these two facilities. While many are arguing (or speculating) about the true reason behind the attacks, as Ukraine had not attacked fertilizer plants before Russia did so, the global food security and fertilizer markets are likely to suffer severe collateral damage no matter what the reasons for the attacks may be. European farmers are now confronting winter planting decisions against a backdrop of tightened supply and renewed market premiums. It appears that Vladimir Putin may be trying to rerun the disaster that befell Sri Lanka in 2021, only this time caused by an outside stimulus. In Sri Lanka, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa decided to ban synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, forcing millions of Sri Lanka's farmers to go organic. The decision, while wrapped in a concern for the environment, was ill-advised. It wound up precipitating a famine that ultimately destroyed Sri Lanka's economy and caused the overthrow of President Rajapaksa himself. (Source). Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Putin is striking grain elevators and storage facilities. It is anybody's guess what happens now if Moscow targets Ukrainian fertilizer plants like those in Rivne in retaliation for Ukraine's strikes on Russian fertilizer plants. Beyond disrupting production, such an escalation risks an environmental catastrophe on the EU's doorstep. The Tula and Stavropol strike already has pushed up prices on nitrogen-based products like urea and UAN by 6-10% in recent weeks, and threatens to add 20-40% to broader fertilizer costs. Commodity markets already are impacted. In agricultural futures trading, wheat has jumped by 50-70% in some contracts during similar past disruptions. (Source). Analysts warn that any renewed Black Sea export interruption could trigger an equivalent surge within months. Corn, with Ukraine responsible for some 15% of all global exports, could spike another 30-50%, assuming U.S. and South American producers do not immediately ramp up acreage. The sunflower-oil market, dominated by Ukraine (50%) and Russia (17%), is particularly vulnerable: March 2022 saw a one-month price jump of 23% alone, and experts now predict possible increases of 40-60% during an export halt, with ripple effects raising palm and soy oil by 20-30%, as well. Earlier this year, Ukraine had to shut down one of its main sunflower plants at Kernel due to a raw material shortage. (Source). Having brokered a ceasefire in the 12-day conflict in the Middle East, the United States has secured considerable diplomatic momentum and might use it to put the brakes on Russia and Ukraine's escalating attacks on critical food and fertilizer infrastructure. For President Trump, the goal of averting a global famine would earn him high marks.
Chicago Tribune
29-05-2025
- Politics
- Chicago Tribune
Ivor Ichikowitz: South Africa's visit to the US shows how diplomacy has changed
Diplomacy is an art that has often most effectively been practiced behind closed doors. But the 47th president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, has changed that. Diplomacy is now practiced in the full glare of the world's TV cameras and media, leaving very little room to wriggle — but an ocean of opportunity for disaster. The net effect has been a total recalibration of the practice of diplomacy, with May 21 being a perfect case in point when South African President Cyril Ramaphosa led his entourage to the White House. The fact that the meeting even took place was a triumph of old-school diplomacy given the unprecedented depths that the historic relationship between the two nations has plunged, especially since the advent of the 47th administration in January this year. There was massive trepidation back home in South Africa about just how this meeting would evolve, especially after the public dressing down that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was forced to endure in February. This time, the tactics were the same: The White House presented unvarnished beliefs about the situation in South Africa, which Trump has held very firmly, this time via a video pastiche. Ramaphosa's party was astutely selected, blending key political leaders, including organized labor, with officials, business leaders and golf champions, who were neither politicians nor administrators. It was an example once again of how much has changed in the last six months — and even beyond — in Africa and in the world. South Africa has moved from declaring itself neutral in the war in Ukraine to actively protecting Russia from censure to inviting Zelenskyy to a state visit in April. The U.S. has moved from actively, and sometimes unquestioningly, backing Kyiv and sanctioning Moscow to actively engaging with President Vladimir Putin rather than isolating him. Both countries' approaches seem poles apart and inherently contradictory — and yet they share very similar motivations and characteristics. Washington and Pretoria want the war to end, both are working hard to do just that and both are using nontraditional, sometimes disruptive, methods. The Black Sea Grain Initiative was the first seed in a bid to reap a harvest of peace. It was sown by an initiative under South Africa's leadership to get Ukraine and Russia — or their proxies — to a table. The first hoped-for outcome was to prevent Africans from starving after they were cut off from the breadbasket of Eastern Europe and the fertilizers produced there to grow their own crops. But the bigger prize was to forge swords into ploughshares because the geopolitical tensions of an increasingly volatile and multipolar world were playing out in African countries as they became substitute battlegrounds in the war for global influence. Private individuals, business leaders and philanthropists helped to bring the different parties together by leveraging their networks and stepping in where normal diplomatic channels had failed. The Black Sea Grain Initiative led to a previously unthinkable invitation: Pretoria offered to host Zelenskyy. Previously, Pretoria had earned Washington's ire for refusing to back a United Nations General Assembly resolution censuring Russia. The intervention of unorthodox players happened in Washington, too, as Ramaphosa sat in the Oval Office with Trump. It was no surprise that some at the meeting were golfers themselves, stepping in where diplomats and political leaders could not, to help drive through Pretoria's Africa came to the U.S. to recalibrate a relationship that has been increasingly under threat for months; a growing ideological gulf in the majority party of its unity government has been a contributor. Coming to America forced a timely reappraisal of South Africa's issues, and in the process, the South African delegation did much to disabuse the U.S. administration of some of its most firmly held views. South Africa does have serious societal issues to contend with, including high levels of violent crime — and no one shied away from this problem, but white South Africans are not disproportionately affected by it. To properly address the issue is not a matter of being a supplicant who begs for international aid, but rather of building the economy, creating jobs and instilling hope in new generations of South Africans. To achieve that, the U.S. must be an active trade partner with South Africa — continuing with the current trade agreements and even boosting investment in the country, to everyone's benefit. There is no doubt that the recent meeting between U.S. and South African officials was an inflection point in Washington-Pretoria relations. Taking a cue from Trump, it was akin to sinking a 3-foot putt in the full glare of the cameras, which isn't an easy thing to do — and yet, I think the South Africans, together, might just have done it. Ivor Ichikowitz is a South African-born global industrialist and African philanthropist. He chairs the Ichikowitz Family Foundation, which played a leading role in facilitating the talks that led to the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Istanbul is very good' — Lavrov backs Turkey again for next round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on May 27 that Moscow would welcome a second round of peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, he said during a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. "If you ask me, I would turn to our Turkish friends again — Istanbul is very good," Lavrov said, according to state-owned news agency TASS. The proposal comes as global diplomacy searches for a venue for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow after the May 16 talks failed to achieve the ceasefire Ukraine has pushed for. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 19 that Ukraine is open to a new round of talks in Turkey, Switzerland, or the Vatican. Lavrov, however, cast doubt on the Vatican as a host, arguing that it would be an unsuitable platform for talks between "Orthodox countries." The Turkish foreign minister, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin negotiator Vladimir Medinsky during his visit, reaffirmed Ankara's readiness to facilitate future talks. Fidan is expected to travel to Ukraine later this week following his two-day trip to Moscow. Turkey previously hosted peace negotiations in March 2022. Since then, Ankara has maintained active contact with both Kyiv and Moscow and facilitated multiple prisoner exchanges, as well as the now-defunct Black Sea Grain Initiative. No official date or venue for a second round of talks has been agreed. The renewed discussion about potential locations follows a May 19 call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Putin. During the call, Putin rejected Ukraine's proposal for an immediate ceasefire and instead suggested preparing a "memorandum" outlining a future peace framework. Since the call, Russia has launched one of its most intense waves of aerial attacks, including more than 600 drones and dozens of missiles over a single weekend. Read also: Why Trump needs to follow through and trigger the 'downfall of Russia' We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine-Russia talks to open in Istanbul without Putin, Kremlin confirms
LONDON -- Ukrainian and Russian representatives will meet in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, for their first meeting since the opening weeks of Moscow's 3-year-old invasion of its neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend Thursday's talks, despite an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders. The return to Istanbul is symbolic, the historic Turkish city having played host to arguably the most successful bursts of diplomacy in three years of devastating warfare. It was there in March 2022 that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators produced the Istanbul Communiqué -- the framework of a possible peace agreement to end Russia's nascent full-scale invasion. Its tradeoff was essentially one of Ukraine accepting permanent neutrality -- meaning forever abandoning any hope of becoming a member of NATO -- in exchange for ironclad security guarantees. The subsequent intensification of the war and emerging evidence of alleged Russian war crimes -- as well as suspicions of sabotage operations against peace talks participants -- fatally undermined those early peace efforts. Later, Istanbul was also the hub of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that ran from 2022 to 2023, which with the support of Turkey and the United Nations temporarily allowed for the safe export of grain and other agricultural goods from Ukrainian and Russian ports through the Black Sea -- which had by then become a key theater of the fighting -- to the rest of the world. Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky -- who led talks in 2022 -- will lead the Russian delegation. Medinsky will be joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia's military intelligence agency. Zelenskyy and Putin last met in person in France in 2019 for a session of the Normandy Format, a peace forum convened with France and Germany in a bid to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The fighting there was touched off by Russia's annexation of Crimea and subsequent fomentation of a separatist revolt against Kyiv in the Donbas region. Moscow's 2022 full-scale invasion was a continuation of that initial cross-border aggression, with Russian columns surging out of occupied Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to seize more territory. Zelenskyy said at a news conference this week he would not meet any other Russian representative, because "everything in Russia depends" on the president. "I will go to Turkey and I'm ready to meet Putin," Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy is expected to be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. MORE: Ukraine-Russia peace talks 'chess' match pits Zelenskyy against Putin President Donald Trump -- who since returning to office has been seeking a ceasefire and eventual peace deal -- suggested this week that he hoped for progress at Thursday's talks. "I think we're having some pretty good news coming out of there today and maybe tomorrow and maybe Friday," Trump said upon arrival in Qatar on Wednesday. The president even hinted he might even travel to Istanbul, though did not say whether he expected Putin to do the same. "Well I don't know if he's showing up," Trump said of his Russian counterpart. "He would like me to be there, and that's a possibility. If we could end the war, I'd be thinking about that," Trump added. The U.S. delegation to Turkey includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. Speaking at a gathering of NATO foreign ministers in Istanbul on Thursday, Rubio said of his hopes for the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks, "We'll see what happens over the next couple of days." "I will say this, and I'll repeat it, that there is no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Rubio continued. "This war is going to end not through a military solution, but through a diplomatic one, and the sooner an agreement can be reached on ending this war, the less people, less people will die and the less destruction there will be." Trump, Rubio said, "is interested in building things, not destroying. He wants economies and countries focused on building things, making things, providing opportunity and prosperity for its people, and he's against all the things that keep that from happening, like wars, like terrorism and all the instability that comes with that." Putin proposed the talks last weekend, in response to Ukraine's demand -- backed by the leaders of France, Germany, the U.K. and Poland during a joint visit to Kyiv -- for a full 30-day ceasefire during which time peace talks could proceed. Trump agreed to the plan by phone, the European leaders said. But Trump then also backed Putin's offer to restart the talks that collapsed in 2022. Trump even publicly pressed Zelenskyy to "immediately" agree to the meeting. Despite the significance of renewed direct Ukraine-Russia talks, Oleg Ignatov -- the International Crisis Group's senior Russia analyst -- told ABC News he had low expectations of an immediate breakthrough. "The Russians clearly say that they're interested in keeping military and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine," he said. "They clearly say that there will be long negotiations and Ukraine should be prepared for this." While Trump agitates for a deal he can sell as a political win, Kyiv and Moscow are maneuvering to avoid blame for the failure of peace talks -- and dodge Trump's subsequent wrath. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio on Wednesday in Istanbul. "I reaffirmed Ukraine's strong and consistent commitment to President Trump's peace efforts and thanked the United States for its involvement," the former wrote om X. "We are ready to advance our cooperation in a constructive and mutually beneficial manner," he added. "It is critical that Russia reciprocate Ukraine's constructive steps. So far, it has not. Moscow must understand that rejecting peace comes at a cost." Ukraine-Russia talks to open in Istanbul without Putin, Kremlin confirms originally appeared on
15-05-2025
- Politics
Ukraine-Russia talks to open in Istanbul without Putin, Kremlin confirms
LONDON -- Ukrainian and Russian representatives will meet in Istanbul, Turkey, on Thursday, for their first meeting since the opening weeks of Moscow's 3-year-old invasion of its neighbor. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend Thursday's talks, despite an invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a face-to-face meeting between the two leaders. The return to Istanbul is symbolic, the historic Turkish city having played host to arguably the most successful bursts of diplomacy in three years of devastating warfare. It was there in March 2022 that Ukrainian and Russian negotiators produced the Istanbul Communiqué -- the framework of a possible peace agreement to end Russia's nascent full-scale invasion. Its tradeoff was essentially one of Ukraine accepting permanent neutrality -- meaning forever abandoning any hope of becoming a member of NATO -- in exchange for ironclad security guarantees. The subsequent intensification of the war and emerging evidence of alleged Russian war crimes -- as well as suspicions of sabotage operations against peace talks participants -- fatally undermined those early peace efforts. Later, Istanbul was also the hub of the Black Sea Grain Initiative that ran from 2022 to 2023, which with the support of Turkey and the United Nations temporarily allowed for the safe export of grain and other agricultural goods from Ukrainian and Russian ports through the Black Sea -- which had by then become a key theater of the fighting -- to the rest of the world. Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky -- who led talks in 2022 -- will lead the Russian delegation. Medinsky will be joined by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia's military intelligence agency. Zelenskyy and Putin last met in person in France in 2019 for a session of the Normandy Format, a peace forum convened with France and Germany in a bid to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The fighting there was touched off by Russia's annexation of Crimea and subsequent fomentation of a separatist revolt against Kyiv in the Donbas region. Moscow's 2022 full-scale invasion was a continuation of that initial cross-border aggression, with Russian columns surging out of occupied Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk to seize more territory. Zelenskyy said at a news conference this week he would not meet any other Russian representative, because "everything in Russia depends" on the president. "I will go to Turkey and I'm ready to meet Putin," Zelenskyy said. Zelenskyy is expected to be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Donald Trump -- who since returning to office has been seeking a ceasefire and eventual peace deal -- suggested this week that he hoped for progress at Thursday's talks. "I think we're having some pretty good news coming out of there today and maybe tomorrow and maybe Friday," Trump said upon arrival in Qatar on Wednesday. The president even hinted he might even travel to Istanbul, though did not say whether he expected Putin to do the same. "Well I don't know if he's showing up," Trump said of his Russian counterpart. "He would like me to be there, and that's a possibility. If we could end the war, I'd be thinking about that," Trump added. The U.S. delegation to Turkey includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg. Speaking at a gathering of NATO foreign ministers in Istanbul on Thursday, Rubio said of his hopes for the upcoming Ukraine-Russia talks, "We'll see what happens over the next couple of days." "I will say this, and I'll repeat it, that there is no military solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Rubio continued. "This war is going to end not through a military solution, but through a diplomatic one, and the sooner an agreement can be reached on ending this war, the less people, less people will die and the less destruction there will be." Trump, Rubio said, "is interested in building things, not destroying. He wants economies and countries focused on building things, making things, providing opportunity and prosperity for its people, and he's against all the things that keep that from happening, like wars, like terrorism and all the instability that comes with that." Putin proposed the talks last weekend, in response to Ukraine's demand -- backed by the leaders of France, Germany, the U.K. and Poland during a joint visit to Kyiv -- for a full 30-day ceasefire during which time peace talks could proceed. Trump agreed to the plan by phone, the European leaders said. But Trump then also backed Putin's offer to restart the talks that collapsed in 2022. Trump even publicly pressed Zelenskyy to "immediately" agree to the meeting. Despite the significance of renewed direct Ukraine-Russia talks, Oleg Ignatov -- the International Crisis Group's senior Russia analyst -- told ABC News he had low expectations of an immediate breakthrough. "The Russians clearly say that they're interested in keeping military and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine," he said. "They clearly say that there will be long negotiations and Ukraine should be prepared for this." While Trump agitates for a deal he can sell as a political win, Kyiv and Moscow are maneuvering to avoid blame for the failure of peace talks -- and dodge Trump's subsequent wrath. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met with Rubio on Wednesday in Istanbul. "I reaffirmed Ukraine's strong and consistent commitment to President Trump's peace efforts and thanked the United States for its involvement," the former wrote om X. "We are ready to advance our cooperation in a constructive and mutually beneficial manner," he added. "It is critical that Russia reciprocate Ukraine's constructive steps. So far, it has not. Moscow must understand that rejecting peace comes at a cost."
