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Boston Globe
6 days ago
- Business
- Boston Globe
Iran's attack on a US base in Qatar is a nightmare come true for Persian Gulf states
The operation was telegraphed by Iran, and no one was killed. Still, the attack that Iran launched in response to the US bombing of its nuclear sites Sunday was a nightmare for the Persian Gulf states, which include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. Advertisement Despite years of efforts to build bridges with Iran, curry favor with President Trump, and establish their capitals as business-friendly havens in a volatile Middle East, they have found themselves sucked into a conflict that they have sought to avoid. 'It leaves the Gulf in a really uncomfortable spot,' said Dina Esfandiary, Middle East geoeconomics lead at Bloomberg Economics. 'Their absolute worst fear came true: They were caught in the middle of an escalation between Iran and the US.' Advertisement Gulf foreign ministers gathered in Doha on Tuesday for an emergency meeting to discuss the attack. The six countries all rely on the United States as their security guarantor, and host tens of thousands of US military personnel and several major US bases. There has not been a war on their lands since Saddam Hussein, the former leader of Iraq, invaded Kuwait in 1990, and their governments have cultivated reputations as safe destinations for international tourists and investors. But the monarchs that rule the Persian Gulf states have long feared and attempted to counter security threats from Iran, even as they cultivated ties with their neighbor. Qatar and Oman have particularly friendly relations with Iran. After the attack, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke to the emir of Qatar and expressed 'his regret,' Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar's prime minister, said in a news conference Tuesday. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have had more antagonistic relationships with Iran, and went as far as severing diplomatic ties in 2016. The Emirati government has an especially complex position, as it is wary of the security threat posed by Iran but is also one of its largest trading partners. Those tensions have sometimes led to confrontations, such as in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE waged a disastrous bombing campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi militia in the 2010s. The Persian Gulf states are fearful that Iran could obtain a nuclear weapon, although they have called for the country to be dealt with through diplomacy rather than military action. There is also a sectarian dimension to the divide. Several of the Persian Gulf royal families, who are Sunni Muslim, are wary of Shiite-majority Iran exporting its revolutionary ideology to the Shiite citizens among their populations to foment unrest. Advertisement 'We have been living next to Iran for years and for centuries,' said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist. 'We know how difficult Iran is.' Last week, when Saudi, Bahrain, and UAE officials met with a bipartisan delegation of US congressional representatives, they mentioned that one of their biggest worries was that Iran-backed militias could target the US forces based in their countries, Representative Jimmy Panetta, a California Democrat, said. Such a scenario would draw attention to the heavy US military presence that Persian Gulf rulers host -- a sensitive issue for their citizens. But it would also mean that their region becomes 'essentially a pawn or the arena for these tensions to play out,' Esfandiary said. With the help of US defense systems, all but one of the missiles shot at Qatar were intercepted. Hours later, the emirate announced that it had helped Trump broker a cease-fire between Iran and Israel. 'We hope for this issue to be contained as soon as possible and for this chapter to be behind us,' Sheikh Mohammed said during the news conference. But the attack highlighted the vulnerability of the Persian Gulf countries, despite their wealth and security ties with the United States. Warning sirens sounded across Bahrain and the airspace over Dubai, United Arab Emirates, one of the world's biggest aviation hubs, was closed. 'For decades we've been calling out that this is a possibility that we've tried to avert,' said Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University. Advertisement The attack on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar evoked memories of an Iran-backed drone assault that hit energy facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019, briefly knocking out half of the kingdom's oil production. That attack, which took place during Trump's first term, is often cited by Saudi officials as the moment when they realized that US protection only went so far, pushing them to reach out diplomatically to Iran. The countries reestablished relations in 2023. The UAE and Bahrain have also been warming to Iran, and the attack in Qatar is unlikely to derail that rapprochement. At the same time, the attack has underscored the Persian Gulf countries' reliance on the United States -- a dependency with which their rulers are not entirely comfortable.
Bloomberg
24-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
NATO Cash Bonanza Risks Becoming Europe's Lost Chance for Growth
Europe's plans to unleash trillions of euros in new defense spending will be a huge missed opportunity unless the region can work out how to raise productivity in the process. Any economic benefits beyond bolstering its own military capacity are likely to be lost if countries don't change the way they invest in their armed forces, and develop and produce weapons. That's what calculations by Bloomberg Economics suggest, pointing to only a fleeting growth impact that peters out within three years.
Miami Herald
23-06-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Iran's payback threat for US strike keeps world powers on alert
Iran vowed retaliation and kept up attacks on Israel following the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets. The Islamic Republic fired another missile against Israel on Monday, while Israeli forces kept up strikes on Iranian military sites and airports. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a news conference to continue Israel's military campaign in Iran as well as in the Gaza Strip. Tehran has yet to announce whether or how it might strike American targets in the Middle East. President Donald Trump's decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs and cruise missiles on the country's three main nuclear sites on Sunday pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory and boosted risks in a global economy already facing severe uncertainty over his trade wars. Oil rose by nearly 6% when markets opened in Asia before paring most of those gains, with Brent trading at $77.65 per barrel as of 8:37 a.m. in London. U.S. stock futures initially declined as investors weighed retaliation scenarios and the risks to global energy supplies. "An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation," said Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud. The extensive U.S. operation - which targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan - included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles from a submarine and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, the first time the large bunker busters were used in combat. It also marked the U.S. entry into the war that began on June 13 when Israel unleashed attacks on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, and killed senior commanders and atomic scientists. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes had a "limited" objective, focused on destroying Iran's atomic program. At the United Nations on Sunday, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council meeting that the "timing, nature and scale" of Tehran's response "will be decided by its armed forces." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which answers to the Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it would continue targeting Israel and cited American bases in the region as a vulnerability for the U.S., without openly threatening them. Trump said he would respond with "far greater" force to any Iranian retaliation on U.S. assets. He also floated the possibility of regime change in Iran, although U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have said it's not their objective. Israeli officials have said while toppling Iranian government isn't a war objective, their attacks could undermine the government to the extent that that happens. Fordow damage Trump said the three nuclear sites U.S. bombers hit were "totally obliterated." Still, others were more cautious, especially in the case of the enrichment site at Fordow that's deep underground. Hegseth and Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were among the U.S. officials who said the extent of the damage wasn't yet clear. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which officially has the task of monitoring Iran's program, told the U.N. Security Council on Sunday that no one yet knows the condition of Fordow, or the location of Iran's more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Hormuz traffic A key area of focus for global markets fretting about Iran's possible venues for retaliation is the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for the world's oil and gas. Iran's parliament called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV on Sunday. But such a move - unprecedented in the Islamic Republic's nearly five-decade history - could not proceed though without the approval of Khamenei, the supreme leader. His office controls decisions of this magnitude, typically in coordination typically with the Supreme National Security Council. Naval forces in the region warned that ships, especially U.S.-linked ones, could be at heightened risk. Greece, home to more oil-tanker capacity than any other nation, cautioned its vessels owners to think again if they're considering entering the Persian Gulf. Two supertankers both capable of hauling about 2 million barrels of crude U-turned in the strait on Sunday. They entered the waterway and then abruptly changed course. One factor that may complicate Iran's decision on how to retaliate is that it is largely isolated on the world stage. Its top allies - Russia and China - are offering only rhetorical support, while the militia groups Tehran has armed and funded for years are refusing or unable to enter the fight. Russian officials have made it clear that a cooperation treaty the two countries signed in January doesn't include mutual-defense obligations. And China, which gets many of its oil and liquefied natural gas imports from the Gulf, including Iran, would be loath to see energy prices soar because of a closure of or attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Copyright (C) 2025, Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Portions copyrighted by the respective providers.
Straits Times
23-06-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Trump warns against rising oil prices following Iran attack
Oil on June 23 began to erase earlier gains, however, as fears began to fade of an immediate disruption of oil supplies in the region. PHOTO: AFP WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump demanded that energy producers keep down oil prices following US military strikes on Iran, which drove prices higher amid fears the attack could provoke a wider conflict in the Middle East. 'EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!' Mr Trump posted on social media on June 23. In a subsequent post, Mr Trump urged the Energy Department to 'DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!' Energy Secretary Chris Wright responded in a post on X that 'we're on it.' Iran has warned that Mr Trump's decision to join Israel's military offensive with attacks on its three main nuclear sites would trigger retaliation. Tehran could close the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that carries about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade. Higher oil prices would squeeze US consumers whose bank accounts have been stretched in recent years by inflation, a development that could inflict political pain on Mr Trump and Republicans. If the strait is shut to shipping, crude could soar past US$130 per barrel, according to a Bloomberg Economics estimate. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said earlier on June 23 that the US is 'actively and closely monitoring this situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian regime would be foolish to make that decision.' Oil on June 23 began to erase earlier gains, however, as fears began to fade of an immediate disruption of oil supplies in the region. Global benchmark Brent initially surged to US$81.40 a barrel, but later dropped to below US$77. Mr Trump's directive for more US drilling cannot, on its own, spur more oil and gas development. US oil executives have shown little appetite in recent years to dramatically boost output, with the price of West Texas Intermediate below the cost of production at some sites. Oil companies generally are plotting investment decisions in the US based on long-term price forecasts – not the temporary spike spurred by the attacks on Iran and the fear of supply disruption in the Mideast. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
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First Post
23-06-2025
- Business
- First Post
Possibility of Iran's retaliation to US strikes keeps markets on their toes
President Donald Trump said the strikes had a 'limited' objective to destroy Iran's atomic program. Still, he warned that any retaliation on US targets would be met with 'far greater' force and hinted at the possibility of regime change read more Iran has vowed to avenge the "unprovoked" attack on its nuclear facilities by the US. Representational image: AP File Iran has kept up its attacks as Israeli forces launched new strikes on the Islamic Republic's military sites and airports. Iranian leaders have not yet disclosed how they might target US forces in the region in retaliation for Washington's attack on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites, but they warned American assets were vulnerable. The US operation on Sunday (May 22), which marked its entry into the conflict, involved 125 aircraft, submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, and 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, striking Iran's. It was the first time the bunker busters were used in combat. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD President Donald Trump said the strikes had a 'limited' objective to destroy Iran's atomic program. Still, he warned that any retaliation on US targets would be met with 'far greater' force and hinted at the possibility of regime change. Markets on alert The attack and its fallout pushed oil prices up nearly 6 per cent when markets opened in Asia, before easing. Brent crude was trading at $77.65 per barrel as of 8:37 am GMT. US stock futures also fell as investors considered the impact on energy supplies and inflation. 'An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation,' Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud said in a note. At the United Nations, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council meeting that Tehran's response would be determined by 'the timing, nature and scale' chosen by its armed forces. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would keep targeting Israel and pointed to American bases in the region as a weakness, though it stopped short of openly threatening US troops. Damage to Iran's nuclear sites unclear Although Trump said the three nuclear sites hit by US bombers were 'totally obliterated,' US officials acknowledged it was too early to assess the full extent of the damage, particularly at Fordow, which is buried deep underground. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine said more time was needed to determine the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, estimated at more than 400 kilograms enriched to 60 percent. The International Atomic Energy Agency told the Security Council it had no way to verify the condition of the sites or the location of the uranium. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Strait of Hormuz under watch Iran's parliament on Sunday called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz , a vital waterway for global oil and gas shipments. However, such a decision would require approval from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council. Iran may also face challenges in organising a direct military response. Russia and China, key allies, have so far offered only statements of support. Russian officials stated their security agreement with Tehran does not include mutual defence. China, which relies on Gulf energy imports, is unlikely to support actions that threaten oil flow or raise prices. Militias aligned with Iran, long used to conduct regional operations, have also not entered the conflict, leaving Iran increasingly isolated as it weighs its next move.
