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Al-Ahram Weekly
12 hours ago
- Business
- Al-Ahram Weekly
FACTBOX: Egypt's current account deficit narrows by 22.6% in 9 months of FY24/25 per BoP data - Economy
Egypt's current account deficit narrowed by 22.6 percent year-on-year during the first nine months (July 2024–March 2025 ) of FY2024/2025, which ended at end of June, reaching $13.2 billion, down from $17.1 billion in the same period last fiscal year, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced on Tuesday. According to the balance of payments (BoP) data, this improvement was primarily driven by a stronger performance in the third quarter of 2025 (January–March). Despite the positive momentum, BoP recorded an overall deficit of $1.9 billion during the same period, reversing a surplus of $4.1 billion posted a year earlier. The shift was mainly attributed to a significant decline in capital and financial account inflows, which fell to $7.7 billion from a record high of $20 billion. The previous figure had been boosted by the one-off $15 billion Ras El-Hekma deal. Egypt is engaged in $8 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An IMF mission is expected to visit Egypt in September for the discussions on the fifth and sixth reviews of the deal, with projections that both reviews will be completed in December. The First review of the newly approved Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) is also scheduled to be completed with these two reviews. The completion of the whole three reviews is anticipated to refresh Egypt's treasury with a total of over $2.6 billion. Key positive contributors to the current account's improvement Remittances from Egyptians working abroad surged by 82.7 percent to $26.4 billion, up from $14.5 billion, providing significant support to the current account. Meanwhile, the investment income deficit narrowed by 13.4 percent to $12.2 billion, bolstered by a 74 percent rise in investment income receipts to $1.9 billion and a 6.9 percent decline in investment income payments to $14.1 billion. Moreover, tourism revenues rose by 15.4 percent to $12.5 billion, up from $10.9 billion in the previous year, supported by a rise in tourist nights to 134.3 million from 116.4 million. Challenges limiting further improvement Regarding the BoP deficit, the data showed that the oil trade deficit more than doubled to $10.3 billion, up from $5.1 billion, primarily due to a surge in oil imports. Oil imports climbed to $14.5 billion from $9.7 billion, driven by higher imports of natural gas, oil products, and crude oil. Meanwhile, oil exports fell to $4.2 billion, primarily due to a decrease in crude oil and gas shipments, although an increase in oil product exports partially offset the decline. The non-oil trade deficit also widened to $28 billion, up from $23.7 billion in the previous period. Imports of non-oil goods increased by $10.3 billion to $53.6 billion, led by key commodities such as wheat, soybeans, maize, car and tractor parts, and raw tobacco. In comparison, non-oil exports increased by $6.1 billion to $25.6 billion, driven by growth in shipments of gold, ready-made garments, fruits, aluminium products, and electrical cables. Furthermore, the data showed that Suez Canal revenues dropped sharply by 54.1 percent to just $2.6 billion, compared to $5.8 billion the previous year. This was attributed to disruptions in maritime navigation in the Red Sea, leading to a 61.9 percent decline in net tonnage and a 44.8 percent drop in the number of transiting vessels. Capital and financial account: Cooling inflows The capital and financial account registered net inflows of $7.7 billion, a steep drop from $20 billion the previous year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) stood at $9.8 billion, down from $23.7 billion, which had included the $35 billion Ras El-Hekma deal. FDI in Egypt's oil sector returned to positive territory with a net inflow of $669.6 million, reversing a $175.6 million outflow last year. This came as inflows to the sector reached $5.0 billion, while outflows dropped to $4.3 billion due to lower cost-recovery payments to foreign partners. FDI inflows to the non-oil sector amounted to $9.1 billion, driven by $4.3 billion in greenfield investments and capital increases, $3.1 billion in reinvested earnings, $1.6 billion in real estate purchases by non-residents, and $396.1 million from the sales of domestic entities to foreign investors. In March, Egypt's headline Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the non-oil private sector fell to 46.7, down from 46.9 seen in February, according to Standard and Poor's (S&P) Global index data. The index's latest reading for June showed that conditions across Egypt's non-oil private sector economy deteriorated, as demand weakness and declining output continued to weigh on business activity. Portfolio investments also declined, with net inflows reaching just $2.1 billion, compared to $14.6 billion in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. Meanwhile, Egypt recorded net repayments of $2.6 billion in medium- and long-term loans and facilities, as principal repayments surged to $10.1 billion, compared to $5.9 billion the previous year. Disbursements increased to $7.5 billion from $4 billion. The CBE also saw a net increase in liabilities of $429.9 million, reversing a net outflow of $1.4 billion in the same period a year prior. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
NZ Herald
02-07-2025
- Sport
- NZ Herald
Super Vets in badminton action at Gisborne centre on Saturday
Badminton Eastland starts its Super Veterans North Island Division 3 campaign at home this weekend. Eastland will host Bay of Plenty (2) and Hawke's Bay at the Badminton Centre on Saturday. Play starts at 9.30am, with Eastland up against BoP. BoP face Hawke's Bay in the next
India Gazette
30-06-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
India's trade deficit may surge to USD 300 bn in FY26 despite lower oil prices: ICICI Bank Report
New Delhi [India], June 30 (ANI): India's trade deficit is likely to widen to USD 300 billion in the financial year 2025-26, even though oil prices are expected to remain moderate, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank. The projected deficit would be 7.0 per cent of the country's GDP, higher than the USD 287 billion recorded in FY25 and USD 245 billion in FY24. The report stated, 'We see goods deficit widening to USD 300bn (7.0 per cent of GDP) in FY26. But steady inflows in case of services exports and remittances should ensure a CAD of USD 30bn (0.7 per cent of GDP)'. The report highlighted that while oil prices may not surge sharply, the widening trade deficit will be driven mainly by weak performance in non-oil exports. On the other hand, imports are expected to stay strong due to the strength in domestic growth. A trade deficit occurs when a country's imports are more than its exports, while a current account deficit is a broader measure that includes the trade deficit plus other international transactions like investment income and remittances from other countries. As per the bank's assessment, the global economic environment remains uncertain due to geopolitical developments and the threat of trade wars. Despite this, India's economy is expected to stay resilient, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. The report also noted that rural demand is holding up well, and sectors like services, exports and domestic travel are continuing to expand. The report also expects services exports and remittances to remain steady in FY26. However, growth in these areas could slow down, mainly because of weaker demand from the US. Taking these factors into account, the report projects India's current account deficit (CAD) to stand at USD 30 billion in FY26, which is 0.7 per cent of GDP. In FY25, India's trade deficit rose to USD 287 billion, up from USD 245 billion in FY24, due to a 6.2 per cent increase in imports. While exports in the current fiscal year have shown a modest growth of 3.1 per cent year-on-year so far, this rise is largely led by a strong 22 per cent increase in exports to the US, whereas exports to other countries declined by 1.2 per cent. Despite the challenges in global trade and expected pressure on exports, the report remained optimistic about India's external position. It said, 'FPI and FDI inflows should see improvement as the domestic growth cycle is improving. Overall, BoP to see a mild surplus'. (ANI)
Time of India
30-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India's trade deficit may surge to $300 bn in FY26 despite lower oil prices: ICICI Bank Report
India's trade deficit is likely to widen to USD 300 billion in the financial year 2025-26, even though oil prices are expected to remain moderate, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank . The projected deficit would be 7.0 per cent of the country's GDP, higher than the USD 287 billion recorded in FY25 and USD 245 billion in FY24. The report stated, "We see goods deficit widening to USD 300bn (7.0 per cent of GDP) in FY26. But steady inflows in case of services exports and remittances should ensure a CAD of USD 30bn (0.7 per cent of GDP)". by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Philippines: Affordable Refrigerators for Sale - Check Out the Prices! Refrigerators | Search Ads Search Now Undo The report highlighted that while oil prices may not surge sharply, the widening trade deficit will be driven mainly by weak performance in non-oil exports. On the other hand, imports are expected to stay strong due to the strength in domestic growth. A trade deficit occurs when a country's imports are more than its exports, while a current account deficit is a broader measure that includes the trade deficit plus other international transactions like investment income and remittances from other countries. Live Events As per the bank's assessment, the global economic environment remains uncertain due to geopolitical developments and the threat of trade wars. Despite this, India's economy is expected to stay resilient, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus measures. The report also noted that rural demand is holding up well, and sectors like services, exports and domestic travel are continuing to expand. The report also expects services exports and remittances to remain steady in FY26. However, growth in these areas could slow down, mainly because of weaker demand from the US. Taking these factors into account, the report projects India's current account deficit (CAD) to stand at USD 30 billion in FY26, which is 0.7 per cent of GDP. In FY25, India's trade deficit rose to USD 287 billion, up from USD 245 billion in FY24, due to a 6.2 per cent increase in imports. While exports in the current fiscal year have shown a modest growth of 3.1 per cent year-on-year so far, this rise is largely led by a strong 22 per cent increase in exports to the US, whereas exports to other countries declined by 1.2 per cent. Despite the challenges in global trade and expected pressure on exports, the report remained optimistic about India's external position. It said, "FPI and FDI inflows should see improvement as the domestic growth cycle is improving. Overall, BoP to see a mild surplus".
The Hindu
27-06-2025
- Business
- The Hindu
India reports current account surplus of $13.5 billion in Q4 FY25
India's current account balance recorded a surplus of $ 13.5 billion (1.3% of GDP) in Q4 FY25 as compared with $4.6 billion (0.5% of GDP) a year earlier and against a deficit of $11.3 billion (1.1% of GDP) in Q3 FY25, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday. Merchandise trade deficit at $59.5 billion in Q4 FY25 was higher than $52 billion in Q4 FY24. However, it moderated from $79.3 billion in Q3 FY25 data showed. Net services receipts increased to $53.3 billion in Q4 FY25 from $42.7 billion a year ago. Services exports have risen YoY in major categories such as business services and computer services. Net outgo on the primary income account, primarily reflecting payments of investment income, moderated to $11.9 billion in Q4 FY25 from $14.8 billion in the previous year. As per RBI data personal transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, rose to $33.9 billion in Q4 FY25 from $31.3 billion in the same period last year. In the financial account, foreign direct investment (FDI) recorded a net inflow of $0.4 billion as compared with an inflow of $2.3 billion in same period last year. Foreign portfolio investment (FPI) recorded a net outflow of $5.9 billion in Q4 FY25 as against a net inflow of $11.4 billion a year ago. Net inflows under external commercial borrowings (ECBs) to India amounted to $7.4 billion in in the quarter, as compared to $ 2.6 billion in the same period a year ago. Non-resident deposits (NRI deposits) recorded a net inflow of $ 2.8 billion, lower than $ 5.4 billion a year ago. There was an accretion of $ 8.8 billion to the foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis) in Q4:FY25 as compared to an accretion of $ 30.8 billion a year ago. India's current account deficit at $ 23.3 billion (0.6% of GDP) during FY25 was lower than $ 26 billion (0.7% of GDP) during FY24 primarily due to higher net invisibles receipts. Net invisibles receipts were higher during FY25 than a year ago on account of services and personal transfers. Net inflow under FDI at $ 1 billion during FY25 was lower than $10.2 billion a year ago. During FY25, FPI recorded a net inflow of $ 3.6 billion, lower than $44.1 billion a year ago. There was a depletion of US$ 5 billion in the foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis) during FY25. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist & Head - Research & Outreach, ICRA Ltd said, 'While the current account balance expectedly reported a seasonal surplus in Q4FY25, the size of the same overshot our expectations, amid a surprise dip in primary income outflows in the quarter. This led to the unexpected narrowing in the CAD to 0.6% of GDP in FY25 from 0.7% in FY24.' 'Amid expectations of a widening in the merchandise trade deficit as well as a moderation in the services trade surplus in Q1 FY26 vis-à-vis Q4 FY25, we expect the current account to revert to a deficit in the ongoing quarter, printing at 1.3% of GDP. We foresee India's current account deficit to average 1% of GDP in FY26, assuming an average crude oil price of $70/barrel for the fiscal, which is eminently manageable in spite of the prevailing global uncertainties,' she said. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge Ratings said, 'India's full-year current account deficit was contained at 0.6% of GDP in FY25 aided by upbeat services trade surplus and transfers offsetting the impact of a higher merchandise trade deficit. Exports of software and business services remained the bright spots logging double-digit growth. The capital account inflows narrowed significantly, weighed by subdued net FDI and FPI inflows as well as banking capital outflows.' 'Looking ahead, the volatile global economic environment is likely to pose a headwind for the external demand scenario. We expect India's merchandise exports to contract by 3% in FY26 mainly due to sharper contraction in petroleum exports on expectation of lower crude oil prices,' she said. 'However, non-petroleum exports are expected to contract only marginally by 0.8%. We project oil prices to average at USD 67 per barrel in FY26. The non-petroleum imports are likely to hold up well, supported by sustained domestic economic momentum. Services exports are projected to remain resilient, registering 8% growth, though with some moderation,' she added. 'Overall, upbeat services trade surplus and healthy remittances are likely to remain supportive of the current account position. Given this background, we project the current account deficit to be at 0.9% of GDP in FY26,' she further said.
