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Business Wire
4 days ago
- Business
- Business Wire
Morgan Stanley Announces 7.5 Cents Dividend Increase and Authorization of a Renewed $20 Billion Multi-Year Common Equity Share Repurchase Program
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) announced that it will increase its quarterly common stock dividend to $1.00 per share from the current $0.925 per share, beginning with the common stock dividend expected to be declared by the Firm's Board of Directors in the third quarter of 2025. In addition, the Firm's Board of Directors reauthorized a multi-year common equity share repurchase program of up to $20 billion, without a set expiration date, beginning in the third quarter of 2025. The share repurchases will be exercised from time to time at prices the Firm deems appropriate, subject to various considerations, including current market conditions, the Firm's capital position and future economic and earnings outlook. Ted Pick, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley, said, 'Our improved stress test results reflect the strength and durability of our franchise. We have a scaled and global business that drives the Firm's financial strength, generating durable returns and supporting our ongoing flexibility to invest in our businesses and return capital to shareholders. We remain committed to consistently growing our quarterly dividend and are raising it by 7.5 cents to $1.00 per share.' On June 27, 2025, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System released its CCAR 2025 results, as a result of which Morgan Stanley expects, under current regulatory standards, to be subject to a Stress Capital Buffer (SCB) of 5.1% from October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026. Together with other features of the regulatory capital framework, this SCB results in an aggregate U.S. Basel III Standardized Approach Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.6%. The Firm's U.S. Basel III Standardized Approach CET1 ratio was 15.3% as of March 31, 2025. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has issued a proposed rulemaking that, if adopted, would change the standards by which large bank holding companies' SCBs are calculated. If relevant, the Firm will provide updated information on applicable regulatory capital standards in response to a final rulemaking, including any change in the Firm's SCB. Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing a wide range of investment banking, securities, wealth management and investment management services. With offices in 42 countries, the Firm's employees serve clients worldwide including corporations, governments, institutions and individuals. For further information about Morgan Stanley, please visit Forward-Looking Statements This Release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made, which reflect management's current estimates, projections, expectations, assumptions, interpretations or beliefs of Morgan Stanley's future results, regulatory capital levels and future capital actions, including common stock dividends and common equity share repurchases, and which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Morgan Stanley does not undertake to update the forward-looking statements to reflect the impact of circumstances or events that may arise after the date of forward-looking statements. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties that may affect the future results, regulatory capital levels and future capital actions of Morgan Stanley, please see 'Forward-Looking Statements' preceding Part I, Item 1, 'Competition' and 'Supervision and Regulation' in Part I, Item 1, 'Risk Factors' in Part I, Item 1A, 'Legal Proceedings' in Part I, Item 3, 'Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations' in Part II, Item 7 and 'Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Risk' in Part II, Item 7A, in Morgan Stanley's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 and other items throughout the Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K, including any amendments thereto.
Yahoo
22-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Which states have the richest (and not-so-rich) homeowners?
Many homeowners are celebrating the recent boom in housing wealth, but not everyone is taking part in the home equity party. Collectively, American homeowners have amassed almost $35 billion of home equity, a near-record amount. According to property fintech platform Cotality, that adds up to about $303,000 in equity for the average mortgage-holding homeowner, as of the end of 2024. It's down slightly from $311,000, the historical peak reached in the third quarter of 2024. 'There's been a little bit of stalling and declines in some areas, but overall, we are still looking at some of the highest levels of equity we've had historically,' says Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. Which states and cities have the wealthiest homeowners? What's driving their prosperity? And which homeowners aren't benefiting from the equity boom? Let's dive into the details of how homeowner wealth is shaping up throughout the country. $34.7T The collective worth of U.S. homeowners' equity, as of Q4 2024 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED A majority (61 percent) of homeowners with mortgaged properties saw their equity increase by about $4,100 between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Cotality. However, that's less than the $6,000 YoY gain in the third quarter. Home prices are still climbing, but at a more subdued pace. 'Over the course of last year, the Northeast and part of New England were the areas with the strongest home price appreciation,' says Hepp. 'As a result of that, you'll see New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts having the largest [equity] increases of close to or about $35,000 to $40,000.' The top five states for equity gains year-over-year are: New Jersey ($39,400) Connecticut ($36,300) Massachusetts ($34,400) Rhode Island ($33,000) Maine ($30,000) Other regional areas of expanding equity include the upper Midwest, along with California and Nevada. If you're equity-rich, your mortgage loan balance is no more than half the estimated market value of your home. You own more than you owe, in other words. According to ATTOM Data Solutions, 47.7 percent of the homes in the U.S. fall into that category in the fourth quarter of 2024. Where specifically to find this valuable real estate? Go east, young homeowner: With one exception, the northeastern part of the U.S. is where home equity levels are highest. The top five home-equity rich states are: Vermont (86.7 percent) New Hampshire (61.4 percent) Maine (61.1 percent) Rhode Island (60.8 percent) Montana (60.1 percent) Nationwide, the percentage of equity-rich homes is down a bit: Back in Q2 2024, it peaked at close to half (49.2 percent). Still, ATTOM CEO Ron Barber confirms that equity growth remains strong. 'It's important to keep the broader picture in mind,' he says. 'Both the total number and percentage of equity-rich homes have been steadily increasing for years. The slight Q4 dip came on the heels of two particularly strong quarters and does not necessarily indicate a reversal of the long-term trend.' However, not all homeowners are reaping the benefits of bigger equity stakes. In some states, like Iowa and New Mexico, appreciation has been virtually flat. And in others, home values have actually depreciated. According to Cotality, the states with the biggest declines in home equity year-over-year are: State Equity loss Hawaii -$28,700 Florida -$18,000 Washington D.C. -$15,000 Texas -$10,000 Louisiana -$ 7,000 You can attribute Hawaii's losses to the Maui fires, which Hepp says devastated properties and their worth. 'That does happen to equity when you have a natural disaster, especially if that equity is not protected, for example, by property insurance.' Florida homeowners were impacted by weakening prices in select areas like Cape Coral, Sarasota and Tampa, though Hepp notes that, 'despite the decline, homeowner equity in Florida is actually very large. On average, homeowners have about $320,000 in equity.' As for the Washington D.C., Hepp points out that the drop has nothing to do with the recent government layoffs. 'The area lagged in terms of home price appreciation, and there was actually a slight decline following the surge in mortgage rates, because there were not a lot of people going into the offices,' she says. 'This is just the D.C. area. It's not the greater Washington metro area in Maryland and Virginia, which actually saw increases in equity.' Increases aren't the case everywhere, though. While some homeowners are swimming in home equity, others are underwater. According to Cotality data, the total number of residential properties with negative equity increased to 2 percent of all mortgaged properties in Q4 2024. That adds up to 1.1 million homes, the highest level since the first half of 2023. In real estate lingo, 'negative equity' or being underwater occurs when the mortgage balance (and/or other home-based debt) on a home is greater than its market value. In other words, its possessor owes more than the home is worth. According to Cotalilty, the states with the biggest percentages of negative equity are: State % of properties Louisiana 6.17% Iowa 5.24% Oklahoma 4.53% Mississippi 4.27% Kentucky 3.56% North Dakota 3.53% And according to ATTOM, the states with states that are most seriously underwater (when the amount owed on the home loan exceeds the current market value of the property by at least 25 percent) are: State % of properties Louisiana 9.5% Mississippi 6.4% Kentucky 6.1% Arkansas 5.3% Iowa 5.3% 'When you look at what those markets are all about, these are generally lower income markets, lower down payment, and historically a lower rate of home price appreciation,' says Hepp. 'You also tend to see more natural hazards in these areas.' While 1.1 million underwater homes sounds like a lot, consider some historical context: 12 million homes were underwater during the Great Recession, peaking at 26 percent of mortgaged residential properties. 'Currently, we only have about 2 percent of homeowners nationally in negative equity,' says Hepp. Even if the economy slows significantly, a recession's impact on the housing market could be profoundly different than it was 15 years ago, thanks to the large size of equity stakes. 'This time around, existing homeowners are in a much better position with that financial buffer than they were coming out of the financial crisis,' Hepp adds. While homeowners are enjoying high equity levels, they also are facing higher home-related expenses. Bankrate's Hidden Cost of Homeownership study found that the average annual cost of owning and maintaining a single-family home has jumped 26 percent in the past four years, to $18,118 annually. Everything has gotten more expensive, from property taxes to homeowners insurance to goods and services, driven by inflation in general and rising values in particular (in some cases). Not surprisingly, the places with the big gains often feel the most pain: 'Homeowners [who] are benefiting from the best equity [are] in the most expensive markets around the country, which have the highest ownership costs,' says Barber. Several of the top states for equity gains pay more than $25,000 yearly in ownership and maintenance costs. They have experienced the biggest increases, too, the Bankrate survey found. Of homeowners who have at least one regret about buying their current home, 40 percent cite higher maintenance and other hidden costs as the most common reason. 'Existing homeowners have benefited from the rise in home prices and that resulted in accumulation of equity, but that has been to the detriment of newer entrants to the housing market,' says Hepp. 'As a result of these increases in home prices, [home] affordability is at some of the lowest levels we've had historically.' Home equity represents wealth: ownership of a significant financial asset. 'The growing equity from the long housing market boom has delivered significant benefits for homeowners across all income levels,' says Barber. 'As equity increases, so does the value of what is often a household's number one asset, enhancing overall net worth and boosting potential profits when it comes time to sell, with no notable downsides.' For homeowners who do have equity, they can tap it with a HELOC or home equity loan to improve their property, pay for their kids' college or consolidate debt, at interest rates that are among the lowest for consumer debt. Or, homeowners can hang onto their equity by staying put in their homes and pass it down to future generations. What could throw a monkey wrench in the growth of home equity is a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy. 'Historically, economic downturns have weakened housing markets as rising unemployment and reduced consumer confidence lead fewer families to invest in homeownership,' says Barber. 'As demand softens, home values may decline, pushing more properties into underwater territory, where homeowners owe more than their homes are worth. At the same time, the share of equity-rich properties could shrink as falling prices erode accumulated equity. While the effects vary by recession, past trends suggest a shift in equity distribution is likely.' Even if the economy and home value growth tapers off, though, building a decent equity stake can give homeowners a powerful financial advantage. Not only can it help cover major expenses, it can also be a valuable safety net for when times get tough. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
05-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
U.S. Money Supply Recently Did Something Last Witnessed During the Great Depression -- and It's Typically a Harbinger of a Big Move in Stocks
For the better part of the last two-and-a-half years, optimists have been in firm control on Wall Street. Throughout 2024 and the first seven weeks of 2025, we witnessed the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth stock-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all rally to numerous record-closing highs. However, the last six weeks have served as a necessary reminder that stocks can, and will, move in both directions. Investors are constantly on the lookout for forecasting tools and correlative measures that can accurately predict short-term directional moves in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. While no perfect indicator exists, a small number of metrics and events have, throughout history, strongly correlated with moves higher or lower in Wall Street's major stock indexes. One of these fairly uncommon events, which occurred two years ago, appears to be a harbinger of a massive move to come in stocks. Among the laundry list of economic data points announced monthly, perhaps none was more of an eyebrow-raiser in 2023 than the U.S. money supply. Although there are five different measures of money supply in the U.S., M1 and M2 garner the most attention. The former is a measure of cash and coins in circulation and demand deposits in a checking account. It's effectively money that can be spent at a moment's notice. Meanwhile, M2 factors in everything found in M1 and adds in savings accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. It's still money you can spend, but it's not accessible at the proverbial drop of a dime. It's this category that made history recently. Under normal circumstances, M2 slopes up and to the right. This means that the money supply has steadily increased for decades, with nothing more than mini-declines of 0.01% to 1.5% from its all-time high along the way. Growing economies need more capital in circulation to facilitate transactions. But in those extremely rare instances where the money supply has notably declined over the last 155 years, it's been a flawless precursor to trouble for the economy and Wall Street. According to data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the U.S. M2 money supply clocked in at $21.671 trillion in February 2025. Superficially, this represents a very modest decline of 0.24% from its all-time high of $21.723 trillion set in April 2022. But take note of the substantial spike lower in 2022 and 2023. Between April 2022 and the trough in October 2023, M2 declined by 4.74%. This marked the first time since the Great Depression that M2 fell by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis. If there's a silver lining in this data, it's that M2 money supply has returned to growth since October 2023. Almost the entirety of the 4.74% retracement has been done away with. Additionally, the U.S. money supply expanded by more than 26% on a year-over-year basis during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. M2 has never expanded this quickly before, so there's a real possibility that a 4.74% decline following a historic expansion of money supply is nothing to worry about. But history isn't on the U.S. economy's or Wall Street's side when M2 endures a notable move lower. The post you see above from Reventure Consulting CEO Nick Gerli is more than two years old. It doesn't capture the 4.74% peak decline in October 2023, nor does it depict the bounce back in money supply since then. But what it does show is a very clear correlation between big dips in M2 money supply and poor performance for the U.S. economy/stock market over 155 years. Since 1870, there have been only five instances where M2 declined by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis: 1878, 1893, 1921, 1931-1933, and 2023. The four previous instances are all associated with periods of economic depression for the U.S. economy and double-digit unemployment rates. Once again, the good news is that the existence of the Federal Reserve, along with the know-how regarding how best to implement monetary policy to benefit the U.S. economy, makes it extremely unlikely that the U.S. would enter a depression. However, the first notable decline in M2 since the Great Depression does suggest that consumer buying habits have been pressured, which heightens the possibility of a recession taking shape. Historically, recessions weigh on equities and push the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite significantly lower. Although recessions and stock market downturns aren't something working Americans or investors look forward to, they're a normal and inevitable part of economic and investing cycles. Thankfully, correlations work in both directions -- and being an optimist has been a statistically smarter move for investors for more than a century. Regardless of the policies instituted by the federal government and central bank, recessions are going to occur from time to time. Yet, since the end of World War II, the average recession has endured for just 10 months. On the other hand, the typical economic expansion over the last 80 years has stuck around for approximately five years. This includes two periods of growth that surpassed the 10-year mark. Wagering on the U.S. economy to grow over time has been a financially sound move. It's a similar story for Wall Street, with bull and bear markets looking nothing like one another. Shortly after the S&P 500 entered a new bull market in June 2023, the analysts at Bespoke Investment Group published a data set on social media platform X that compared the length of bull and bear markets dating back to the start of the Great Depression (September 1929). Out of the 27 bear markets that have occurred during a nearly 94-year stretch, the average 20%+ downturn lasted just 286 calendar days, or 9.5 months. Further, no bear market has endured for more than 630 calendar days. In comparison, the average bull market has lasted 1,011 calendar days since the Great Depression began, which is 3.5 times longer than the typical bear market. If the current bull market is extrapolated to the present day, 14 out of 27 S&P 500 bull markets have endured longer than the lengthiest bear market. Even if investors have no idea when stock market corrections will begin, how long they'll last, or how steep the ultimate decline will be, Bespoke's data set pretty conclusively demonstrates that optimism is the necessary ingredient for long-term success in the stock market. Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $494,557!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $623,941!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 781% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 156% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of April 4, 2025 Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. U.S. Money Supply Recently Did Something Last Witnessed During the Great Depression -- and It's Typically a Harbinger of a Big Move in Stocks was originally published by The Motley Fool
Yahoo
28-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
5 Things To Do With Your Tax Refund Amid a Looming Recession
U.S. economic growth has slowed down in 2025. While we aren't currently in a recession, there are smart financial moves you can make with your tax refund in case the economy continues to cool. Last year, the IRS refunded more than $245 billion to over 86 million taxpayers with an average tax refund of $2,850. It may be tempting to splurge, but this also gives you an opportunity to prepare for potential waves in the market. Here's what to do with your tax refund amid a looming recession. Check Out: Trending Now: Americans often struggle with building an emergency fund, but it can help you pay for unplanned expenses or financial emergencies, like car repairs, medical bills or loss of income. According to data from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 54% of all adults have three months of emergency savings. Still, some experts recommend saving at least six months' worth of living expenses. See Next: The higher the interest rate on a credit card or loan, the most you end up paying on top of what you originally borrowed. A recent Experian report found that the average credit card balance increased by 3.5% to $6,730 in 2024 and the average credit card APR was 23.37% as of Q3 2024. Paying off high-interest debt an give you some extra breathing room if your income goes down. If you have the ability, consider putting your tax refund into your IRA or 401(k). You can use all or part of your refund to grow your money and better prepare for retirement. Contributing toward your retirement accounts and investing in a downturn could pay off later when markets recover. Consider using your tax refund to invest in courses, training or certification. This can help you make a pivot or take your career to the next level. If you take advantage of the lifetime learning tax credit — a credit worth that reduces your tax bill dollar-for-dollar for a portion of tuition, fees and other qualifying expenses — you may be able to reduce your tax liability by as much as $2,000 next tax year. During a recession, companies often look to cut costs by reducing staff. In late 2009, during the Great Recession, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that more than 15 million people were unemployed and total employment dropped by 8.6 million or almost 6%. Use the tax refund to start a side hustle or to set up a passive income stream to recession-proof your income. More From GOBankingRatesI'm a Retired Boomer: 6 Bills I Canceled This Year That Were a Waste of Money This article originally appeared on 5 Things To Do With Your Tax Refund Amid a Looming Recession
Globe and Mail
02-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
U.S. Money Supply Did Something 2 Years Ago That Was Last Witnessed During the Great Depression -- and It Historically Foreshadows a Big Move in Stocks
For more than two years, the bulls have been running wild on Wall Street. Since the curtain opened for 2023, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth stock-dependent Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have respectively risen by 31%, 55%, and 82%, with all three indexes notching multiple record-closing highs. But while the stock market has been an undisputed long-term wealth creator, history shows that it doesn't move up in a straight line. Investors are constantly looking for data points and metrics that can forecast short-term directional shifts in the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now. Learn More » Even though there's no such thing as the perfect data point that can concretely predict short-term moves in the stock market, there are a small number of events, data points, and predictive indicators that have strongly correlated with big moves higher or lower in Wall Street's major stock indexes. It's these highly correlative data points that typically garner the most attention and raise investors' eyebrows. Although the stock market's historically pricey valuation and President Donald Trump's tariffs are the talk of Wall Street at the moment, perhaps the biggest concern ties to an economic data point that recently made history for the first time in 90 years. U.S. money supply hadn't done this since 1933 Among the laundry list of economic data points released monthly, the one that recently made history is U.S. money supply. While money supply has five different measures, the most followed are M1 and M2. The former takes into account cash and coins in circulation, demand deposits in a checking account, and traveler's checks, which now make up a small percentage of global spending. The best way to think about M1 is as cash that can be spent at a moment's notice. Meanwhile, M2 is comprised of everything from M1 and adds in money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. It's still money that consumers can spend, but it often requires a bit more effort to get to. It's this measure, M2, that made history for the first time since 1933. For much of the last nine decades, M2 money supply has risen with nothing more than tiny blips lower (fractional declines of 0.1% to 1.5% from the all-time high). Growing economies need more capital to facilitate transactions, which explains why M2 has moved higher so consistently since the mid-1930s. But in those exceedingly rare instances where M2 moves notably lower, it's resulted in a rude awakening for the U.S. economy and stock market. US M2 Money Supply data by YCharts. As of January 2025, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported M2 money supply of $21.561 trillion, which is $162 billion below the all-time high of $21.723 trillion that was achieved in April 2022. In aggregate, this represents a relatively modest drop-off of 0.74%, as you can see in the chart above. However, between April 2022 and October 2023, M2 money supply declined by a peak of 4.74%. This marked the first year-over-year drop of at least 2% since the Great Depression, as well as the steepest peak-to-trough decline in 90 years. To add a bit more color to the chart above, you'll note that M2 has meaningfully bounced from its October 2023 low and is climbing on a year-over-year basis, once again. Growing money supply is usually indicative of a healthy economy. What's more, M2 money supply expanded by an all-time record of 26% on a year-over-year basis during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. It's possible the historic decline two years ago represents nothing more than a reversion to the mean as the U.S. economy absorbed a roughly $6.2 trillion increase in M2 money supply in just over two years. But the prevailing concern is there's more to this move than just a simple reversion to the mean. WARNING: the Money Supply is officially contracting. 📉 This has only happened 4 previous times in last 150 years. Each time a Depression with double-digit unemployment rates followed. 😬 -- Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) March 8, 2023 The post you see above from Reventure Consulting CEO Nick Gerli on social media platform X is effectively two years old. I'm presenting it as a historic reminder of how the U.S. economy and stock market have previously reacted when M2 money supply has declined by at least 2% on a year-over-year basis. Including what occurred in 2023, there have been five instances in 155 years where M2 has fallen by at least 2% year over year: 1878, 1893, 1921, 1931-1933, and 2023. The four prior occurrences correlate with periods of economic depression and double-digit unemployment for the U.S. economy. If there's a silver lining here, it's that the Federal Reserve didn't exist in 1878 or 1893, and both the Fed and federal government have more knowledge and better respective monetary and fiscal policy tools they can lean on in modern times to avoid a depression and double-digit unemployment. Nevertheless, the first sizable drop-off in M2 since the Great Depression signals the potential for a recession to take shape. When the U.S. economy weakens or shifts into reverse, it eventually drags on corporate earnings. It's this cement weight that can pull stocks notably lower. Now for the good news... While the prospect of a sizable decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite might not be what investors want to hear, there's good news, too. Namely, historic precedent is a pendulum that swings in both directions and undeniably favors investors who look to the horizon. There's arguably not a data set that demonstrates the value of time in the market, rather than trying to time the market, better than Crestmont Research's examination of S&P 500 total returns over time. Every year, the analysts at Crestmont calculate the rolling 20-year total returns, including dividends, of the benchmark S&P 500. Crestmont has back-tested these rolling 20-year periods to 1900, which resulted in 106 ending years (1900 to 1919, 1901 to 1920, and so on, through 2005 to 2024). What Crestmont Research found with its analysis is that all 106 rolling 20-year periods produced a positive annualized total return. In simple English, if an investor had, hypothetically, purchased an index fund that mirrored the performance of the S&P 500 at any point between 1900 and 2005 and held their position for 20 years, they'd have made money every time. Time in the market has always proved more valuable than trying to time when corrections will occur. A separate study from Bespoke Investment Group adds even more color to the power of long-term investing. It's official. A new bull market is confirmed. The S&P 500 is now up 20% from its 10/12/22 closing low. The prior bear market saw the index fall 25.4% over 282 days. Read more at -- Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) June 8, 2023 In a social media post on X, shortly after the S&P 500 was declared to be in a new bull market in June 2023, Bespoke's analysts published the data set above, which compares the length of every bull and bear market dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929. On one end of the spectrum, the average bear market has endured for only 286 calendar days (about 9.5 months), and the longest bear market on record stuck around for 630 calendar days. On the other hand, the typical S&P 500 bull market clocks in at 1,011 calendar days -- roughly 3.5 times longer than the average bear market -- and around half of all bull markets have lasted longer than the lengthiest bear market. What Bespoke's and Crestmont's data sets conclusively show is that time and perspective are far more powerful tools for investors than any event, data point, or short-term correlative indicator will ever be. Don't miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you'll want to hear this. On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a 'Double Down' stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you're worried you've already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it's too late. And the numbers speak for themselves: Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you'd have $311,551!* Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you'd have $44,990!* Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you'd have $519,375!* Right now, we're issuing 'Double Down' alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon. *Stock Advisor returns as of February 28, 2025
