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USA Today
11-07-2025
- Climate
- USA Today
See how the Texas floods unfolded and why Camp Mystic was in a hazardous location
More than 120 people have died and at least 160 others are still missing after horrific floods struck central Texas over the July Fourth weekend. Heavy rainfall, rocky terrain, and the nearby Gulf climate combined to quickly turn the Guadalupe River into a destructive torrent across Kerr County and the Texas Hill Country. The swath of land through which the Guadalupe passes – including Camp Mystic, where at least 27 children and counselors were killed – has earned the nickname "flash flood alley," and hundreds have died there over the years. As the search for victims goes on, the question people are asking is: How could this happen? It began with moisture from Tropical Storm Barry that drifted over Texas in the first few days of July, said Bob Fogarty, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio office. There, it collided with an upper-level low pressure system, which parked it in place. A weather balloon launched by the weather service showed near-record moisture in the upper atmosphere, said Victor Murphy, a recently retired National Weather Service meteorologist in Texas. With enormous amount of moisture providing fuel, the winds served as the match that caused the storms to explode. Alan Gerard, a recently retired storm specialist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told USA TODAY several factors converged in one of the worst possible flood locations to create a 'horrific' scenario that dropped up to 16 inches of rain over the larger region from July 3 to July 5. Data from Floodbase, a flood tracking company shows how the deluge pulsed through the watershed for days, bringing death and destruction in its wake. Can't see our graphics? Click here to reload the page. Early on July 4, the Guadalupe River at Kerrville was flowing at 3 cubic feet per second. At that rate, it would fill an Olympic-size pool in eight hours. But soon after sunrise, 7:30 a.m., it was gushing at 134,000 cubic feet per second, a rate would fill the same pool in under a second. The river height surged from less than 12 inches to more than 34 feet, the greatest recorded there since recordkeeping began in 1997. That discharge was the second-highest ever recorded by the stream monitor, with data going back to mid-1986. But data between 6:15 a.m. and 7:30 a.m, around the time of the peak, hasn't been released − the event was so extreme that hydrologists from the U.S. Geological Survey are still reviewing it. Kerrville is on a list of sites where crews will be conducting what are called indirect measurements based on high-water marks, according to the USGS. Terrain and timing were the biggest factors in the storms, according to Gerard and Murphy. "The whole area is very prone to slow-moving thunderstorms, especially in the summer months,' says Dan DePodwin, vice president of forecast operations at AccuWeather. "The reason for that is the jet stream, a fast-moving river of air at about the level that planes fly, that moves northward in the summer," said DePodwin. And because of its proximity to the Gulf, the region gets "very high rainfall rates," most often during summer, adds Gerard. Geology is another key factor that has earned flash flood alley its nickname. The Balcones Escarpment, running roughly parallel to Interstate 35, is a line of cliffs and steep hills created by a geologic fault, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist and civil engineer at the University of Texas, San Antonio. Hill Country is a 'semi-arid area with soils that don't soak up much water, so the water sheets off quickly and the shallow creeks can rise fast,' Sharif says. Texas Public Radio reports that limestone in the area prevents rainwater from soaking into the ground. Instead, the water rushes into valleys. All of these factors and more were present at Camp Mystic. "The terrain is complex or varied," DePodwin says. "So you get water channeling really quickly into narrow areas − in this case the river and river basin. That then obviously flows somewhere, in this case downhill and toward the camp." Camp Mystic is a 700-acre private Christian summer camp for girls about 6 miles south of the town of Hunt in Kerr County. That's in Texas Hill Country, an 11-million-acre region of central-west Texas. Situated between the banks of the Guadalupe River and its Cypress Creek tributary, the camp had just begun its monthlong term for hundreds of girls. The original camp sits alongside the Guadalupe River, and a second camp nearby opened near Cypress Lake in 2020. The camps are bisected by Cypress Creek. Among the 160 missing in the floods are five campers and a counselor from Camp Mystic, which counted at least 27 children and staff among the dead. Many of the camp's structures exist within flood hazard areas defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and new buildings have been built within those boundaries over the years. Over the course both of 30 years, these areas would have a 26% cumulative chance of flooding. Some are in an area known as a regulatory floodway, which must be kept unobstructed for water to move freely during a flood. The camp lost electricity in the early hours of July 4 as heavy rainfall knocked out power. At least 27 campers, some as young as 8, were swept away in the raging waters. According to The Washington Post, many of the girls from a cabin known as the Bubble Inn were lost. The Post reported water came in from two directions, the south fork of the Guadalupe River and from a creek nearby, which created a swirl around the Bubble and Twins cabins. The camp has a storied history in the state, and it has hosted girls from some of Texas' most famous political families. About 700 children were at the camp when the floods struck, said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer Scott Ruskan, an aviation survival technician 3rd class stationed in Corpus Christi, saved 165 people from rising floodwaters in Kerr County, USA TODAY reported. An MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew and an HC-144 Ocean Sentry Aircraft crew were launched from Air Station Corpus Christi, along with an Air Station Houston MH-65 Dolphin helicopter crew to aid in rescue operations, the Coast Guard said. The Coast Guard conducted 12 flights to the area and rescued 15 campers from Camp Mystic, the Guard said. The Texas Army and Air National Guard rescued at least 525 people from flooded areas, the Texas National Guard reported. More than 360 people were evacuated by UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, the Guard said. Another 159 people were rescued by land. A similar tragedy known as the Guadalupe River Flood struck Camp Mystic in July 1987. Ten teens died and 33 were injured when a bus and van carrying evacuees were stranded in floodwaters. Flash flooding, 'a rapid rise of water along a stream or in a low-lying urban area,' is the leading storm-related killer in the United States, according to the National Weather Service. Why? 'Most people fail to realize the power of water,' the weather service says. Six inches of rapidly moving water can knock you off your feet. According to water flowing at just 6 mph exerts the same force per unit area as air blowing at EF-5 tornado wind speeds. Water moving at 25 mph has the pressure equivalent of wind blowing at 790 mph, faster than the speed of sound. One-fifth of all direct deaths in flash floods in the full years of 1996-2024 in the United States have been in Texas, a USA TODAY data analysis shows. These are the states with the highest number of fatalities among the 1,923 total deaths: Texas reported 68 direct deaths from flash floods in 2017, which makes 2025 the deadliest year for flash flood deaths for the state in recent decades. Of the 120 deaths in the July 4 storms, 96 were in Kerr County, where the toll includes at least 36 children, USA TODAY reported. Counties with reported fatalities: Ten states, from Massachusetts to California, have sent specially trained teams – including swift-water rescue crews and trained FEMA personnel – to help with recovery, and two other states have crews on the way, USA TODAY reported. Hopes of finding survivors have diminished with each passing day, county officials said July 10. Authorities say they haven't made a "live rescue" since the day of the flood. Gov. Greg Abbott has declared a disaster in 15 Texas counties. Since the flood, many have wondered what could have been done to mitigate the loss of life. The timing of alerts and lack of sirens has been scrutinized. Reporting has shown that the the state's Division of Emergency Management denied Kerr County's requests a decade ago for a $1 million grant to improve its flood warning system. But sirens and alerts are only part of a layered approach to flood warning and mitigation, DePodwin told USA TODAY: "The questions that will have to be answered are: How can we ensure people receive warnings? What type of actions were taken or not taken by local emergency managers, by local officials, by organizers of events? What plans were in place ahead of time? What thought had been given to flood risks in different parts of Hill Country? A perfect weather forecast is only good if it inspires action." CONTRIBUTING: Janet Loehrke, Suhail Bhat, Doyle Rice, Dinah Voyles Pulver, Rick Jervis, Eduardo Cuevas and Kathryn Palmer. SOURCES: USA TODAY Network reporting and research; Reuters; National Weather Service; AccuWeather; Nearmap; FEMA; First Street. Read more: These Texas 'flash flood alley' towns have suffered most in horrific flooding What Texas cities flooded? Here's where the most rain fell over the weekend Warnings for deadly Texas flash flooding came with little time to act Terrain and timing conspired to cause 'horrifying' Texas rainfall With just word-of-mouth warning, a man raced 25 miles to save guests at his Texas RV park This is a developing story which may be updated.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Death Toll Rises To 81 In Tragic Texas Flooding
This is an earlier version of our coverage. For the latest on the Texas floods, click here. The catastrophic flooding came in the middle of the night, rushing into cabins and dragging mattresses off beds at Camp Mystic, a private Christian summer camp near Texas' Guadalupe River. As of early Monday, 81 people died across six counties. 68 died in Kerr County alone, 40 were adults and 21 were children. Authorities said about 850 people had been rescued or evacuated. There are still 10 Mystic Camp campers and one camp counselor missing. In Burnet County, at least three people are dead with three missing. Six people died in Travis County, two people died in Kendall County and one in Tom Green County. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has signed a disaster declaration for 21 counties. The state has also deployed more than 1,300 personnel to the area, including more than 900 vehicles and equipment to assist. (MORE: How The Deadly Texas Flood Happened) The Guadalupe River, fed by torrential rain, rose 26 feet in 45 minutes. The Weather Channel digital meteorologist Sara Tonks said, "The soil and the river were unable to keep up with the rain as over 7 inches of rain fell in only four and a half hours from 1 to 5:30 am." The Guadalupe River hit its second-highest height ever on record, reaching 29.45 feet, but Bob Fogarty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office believes it could be even higher. He told the Associated Press the gauge failed after recording a level of 29 and half feet, 'The gauge is completely underwater.' Flooding also inundated neighborhoods further north in San Angelo. Some areas got more than a foot of rain, trapping people inside their homes. The National Weather Service in San Angelo said it received multiple reports of flooded roads and homes across Tom Green County, calling the conditions life-threatening. Back in Kerr County, Erin Burgess woke to thunder and rain at her home in Ingram. Just 20 minutes later, she told the Associated Press, water was pouring into her home. She described an agonizing hour clinging to a tree with her teenage son. 'My son and I floated to a tree where we hung onto it, and my boyfriend and my dog floated away. He was lost for a while, but we found them,' Burgess said. Barry Adelman said water pushed everyone in his three-story house into the attic, including his 94-year-old grandmother and 9-year-old grandson. 'I was having to look at my grandson in the face and tell him everything was going to be OK, but inside I was scared to death,' Adelman told AP. Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Department of Emergency Management, said at a news conference Saturday afternoon, 'The entire river is being searched from the northernmost impact all the way as we run down. You have assets in the air that are still doing searches. You have boats that are in the water doing searches. And you have ground crews doing searches. 'That process is going to keep going. We are not stopping until we find everyone that's missing.' At Camp Mystic on Saturday, helicopters flew overhead as people walked among the destruction. 'The camp was completely destroyed,' said Elinor Lester, 13, one of hundreds of campers. 'A helicopter landed and started taking people away. It was really scary.'
Axios
06-07-2025
- Climate
- Axios
How the deadly Fourth of July floods unfolded in Central Texas
Forecasting models that failed to predict the severity of rainfall, a lack of an adequate warning system and bad timing in part led to the disaster that left at least 59 people dead and more missing in Kerr County, Texas. The big picture: Meteorology and climate experts tell Axios that storms like the one that surged the Guadalupe River more than 30 feet in a short time are likely to happen again, partially due to climate change. Catch up quick: As of Sunday afternoon, 11 girls and one counselor remained missing from Camp Mystic, a private Christian camp. An unknown number of people in Kerr County and surrounding areas are still unaccounted for. The regional death toll has climbed to 70. Zoom in: Bob Fogarty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office, tells Axios that while forecasters anticipated the storm would stall, models struggled to pinpoint where and when the heaviest rain would fall. A flood watch was issued Thursday afternoon, and the first warning for the area came just after 1am Friday — by then, the storm was already dumping far more rain than models had projected. Zoom out: The storm hit as the Trump administration has pushed some of the National Weather Service's most veteran staffers out, including a local warning coordination meteorologist with 32 years of experience who took a buyout in April. In response to questions about whether staffing levels impacted forecasting the storm, NWS spokesperson Erica Grow Cei says the agency issued flash flood warnings in neighboring county Bandera the night before the storm and in Kerr the early morning of, "giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met." NWS "is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County," Grow Cei adds. Between the lines: The region struck hardest on Friday is colloquially known as "flash flood alley" because of its topography, including hills that channel rather than absorb water. "This was made horribly worse by the timing being in the middle of the night when the fewest number of people would receive warnings," Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza tells Axios via email. "While the warnings may have been meteorologically sound and adequate, it's clear that they were not received by people with enough time to react," Lanza adds. What they're saying: Climate scientists tell Axios it's too early to know whether climate change directly impacted the Fourth of July flooding. But in general, climate change " can and is shifting those probabilities — sometimes bringing us floods that are more severe and more frequent than in the past," says Nicholas Pinter, a professor and associate director of Watershed Sciences at the University of California Davis. "This is a challenge because it makes predicting and mitigating flood risk a moving target," Pinter tells Axios via email. Andrew Dessler, director of the Texas Center for Extreme Weather at Texas A&M University and a professor of atmospheric sciences, says the floods are "exactly what the future is going to hold," adding that Kerr County was not prepared and local governments should be ready for "more, bigger, extreme events."
Yahoo
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
In Texas region prone to catastrophic floods, questions grow about lack of warning
The forecast began to look ominous in Texas Hill County on Thursday afternoon. A flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service at 1:18 p.m. that predicted up to 7 inches of isolated rainfall early Friday morning in South Central Texas, including Kerr County. By the time the sun rose on the Fourth of July, less than 24 hours later, as much as 12 inches of rain had fallen in parts of the region while its residents were asleep, according to NWS radar estimates. The Guadalupe River gauge at the unincorporated community of Hunt, where the river forks, recorded a 22-foot rise in just two hours, said Bob Fogarty, meteorologist with the NWS Austin/San Antonio office. The gauge recorded a level of 29 ½ feet before becoming completely submerged and failing, Fogarty added. [Camp Mystic, a haven for generations of Texas girls, becomes a center of tragedy] At least 32 people were killed by the flooding. Dozens more remained missing as of Saturday morning, including 27 young girls from a Christian summer camp, according to the Kerr County sheriff's office. The scale of the disaster — and the fact that major flooding is common in this part of Texas — has raised questions over whether more could have been done to warn people in the path of the flood waters. Local and state officials were quick to point to weather forecasts that did not accurately predict the intensity of the rainfall. Meanwhile, some forecasters suggested that local officials and camp leadership should have activated more given the threats that were apparent. 'The heartbreaking catastrophe that occurred in Central Texas is a tragedy of the worst sort because it appears evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities had the organizers of impacted camps and local officials heeded the warnings of the government and private weather sources, including AccuWeather,' AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter wrote in a statement Saturday morning. Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management, on Friday pointed to NWS forecasts from earlier in the week that projected up to 6 inches of rain. 'It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw,' Kidd said. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly echoed Kidd. When he was asked why camps along the Guadalupe were not evacuated, Kelly told reporters the county had 'no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what's happened here.' However, warnings were issued about the potential for flash flooding hours before the waters reached their peak. Rain began to fall around midnight, and the first flash flood warning was issued by the NWS at 1:14 a.m. Friday, Fogarty said. That warning should have triggered a response by local emergency management and local media to spread the word to those in harm's way, as well as the Emergency Alert System that broadcasts warnings to televisions and radios, Fogarty said. All NWS flash flood warnings, including the one issued after midnight on Friday, trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts, the emergency push notification sent through cellphone towers to all wireless phones in the emergency area, Fogarty said. That warning was updated nine times throughout Friday, each of which triggered separate alerts through the Emergency Alert System and the Wireless Emergency Alerts, Fogarty said. The most serious warning came at 4:03 a.m. when the NWS issued a flash flood emergency, warning of an 'extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation' and urging immediate evacuations to higher ground. Flash flood emergencies are issued using a mixture of rainfall data and on-the-ground reports: 'Someone has told us we need to get people out of here immediately or people are going to die,' Fogarty said. The flooding came amid concerns about staffing levels at the NWS, after the Trump administration fired hundreds of meteorologists this year as part of Elon Musk's DOGE cuts. The NWS Austin/San Antonio office's warning coordination meteorologist announced in April that he was retiring early due to the funding cuts, leading to speculation that vacancies could have impacted forecasters' response. The NWS forecasting offices were operating normally at the time of the disaster, said Greg Waller, service coordination hydrologist with the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center in Fort Worth. 'We had adequate staffing. We had adequate technology,' Waller said. 'This was us doing our job to the best of our abilities.' At least one independent meteorologist working in Texas echoed that statement, writing on his website that 'we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event.' The timing of the flood may have been a complicating factor. The alerts came out during the start of the Fourth of July weekend, when RV parks, cabins and homes are filled with tourists who might not be as familiar with the flood risks or the habits of the water. Between 2 and 7 a.m., the Guadalupe River in Kerrville rose from 1 to more than 34 feet in height, according to a flood gauge in the area. The flooding reached its peak at around 6:45 a.m. in Kerrville, hours after warnings were first issued, according to the gauge. When the NWS issued its flash flood emergency, the river height was still under two feet, although it began to rise quickly shortly after the alert was issued. Major flooding on the river is considered anything above 20 feet, a level the gauge recorded a little after 6 a.m. on Friday. Porter noted the danger of the nighttime flooding, when many people are asleep and slower to respond to warnings. Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice told reporters Friday that the suddenness and intensity of the flood caught city officials flat-footed. "This happened very quickly over a very short amount of time that could not be predicted," Rice said. "This is not like a tornado where you can have a siren. This is not a hurricane where you're planning weeks in advance. It hit hard and things like this happen in a very strategic, very isolated area and when those two things converge you have what happened today." Waller noted the high risk of flooding in the area. 'In my career, this is our worst case scenario that we brief all of our new forecasters on,' Waller said. The terrain in the area makes it so precipitation forecasts off by just 20 miles could affect entirely different river basins, Waller said. Given the river's history, Porter said reports of survivors being awoken by rapidly rising water and forced to evacuate in the middle of the emergency instead of much earlier after the warnings were first issued were 'extremely concerning.' The region has experienced catastrophic flooding before, including the 2015 Wimberley flood that left 13 people dead, as well as major floods in 2007 and 2002. A July 1987 flood of the Guadalupe River devastated Kerrville and other communities along the waterway.
Yahoo
05-07-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Historic Rainfall Causes Catastrophic, Deadly Flash Floods In Central Texas
Water rescues and search and recovery efforts are underway in Central Texas after heavy rain caused devastating floods that started in the middle of the night Thursday. The National Weather Service declared flash flood emergencies in Kerr County and San Angelo early Friday morning, warning that a 'large and deadly flood wave' was moving down the Guadalupe River near Hunt, Texas. As of Saturday morning, at least 27 people have been killed by the floods. Among the dead are 18 adults and 9 children. In a press conference on Saturday, officials said that at least 850 people have been rescued from the area. In addition, 27 people remain missing from girls' summer camp at Camp Mystic, which sits alongside the river in Kerr County. Mobile homes, campers and other vehicles were swept away as the river surged. The river shot up more than 26 feet in just 45 minutes. Digital meteorologist Sara Tonks adds, "The soil and the river were unable to keep up with the rain as over 7 inches of rain fell in only 4 and a half hours from 1 to 5:30 am." The Guadalupe River hit its second-highest height ever on record, reaching 29.45 feet, but Bob Fogarty, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office believes it could be even higher. He told the Associated Press the gauge failed after recording a level of 29 and half feet, 'The gauge is completely underwater.' Flooding also inundated neighborhoods further north in San Angelo. Some areas got more than a foot of rain, trapping people inside their homes. The National Weather Service in San Angelo said it received multiple reports of flooded roads and homes across Tom Green County, calling the conditions life-threatening. The NWS urged people to stay indoors and issued River Flood Warnings for parts of San Saba, Concho and Colorado rivers. An additional flash flood emergency was issued for parts of Burnet, Williamson and Travis counties northwest of Austin, Texas, Saturday morning. Up to 14 inches of new rain had fallen. Texas Hill Country and the greater Interstate-35 corridor in Texas are known as "Flash Flood Alley" because of the intersection of heavy rainfall that occurs there frequently, higher population, urban and rolling terrain, and the higher number of influential rivers, including the Guadalupe and Colorado rivers. Up to 10 additional inches of rainfall is possible through the holiday weekend.
