Latest news with #BougainvillePeaceAgreement
The Diplomat
15 hours ago
- Politics
- The Diplomat
When Will PNG's Parliament Finally Decide Bougainville's Status?
PNG can only kick the can down the road so far. In late June, a Papua New Guinean newspaper reported the signing of a new agreement that represents 'A step closer to the Fate of Bougainville Independence.' The headline perfectly expressed what this new development signifies and what it doesn't: Bougainville is indeed one step closer to its fate, but no one knows with any certainty what that fate will be. Meanwhile, Bougainville's independence push is playing out against the backdrop of the same geopolitical competition that is gripping the rest of the Pacific, and this latest agreement was signed on the eve of Bougainville's presidential election in September. What Is the Context? Bougainville is an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea (PNG), lying to the east of the nation's mainland, and is comprised of one main island and several smaller outlying islands and atolls. It has a population of some 300,000 people, much smaller than Papua New Guinea's total population of 11 to 17 million. In 2019, Bougainville's independence referendum was a landslide in favor of new nationhood: 97 percent voted yes, with more than 85 percent turnout. The referendum was mandated by the 2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA), which ended a decade of civil war between PNG and Bougainville. The referendum result was no surprise. Bougainville's independence aspirations predate PNG's own independence from Australia, and over the intervening decades, Bougainvilleans have become tired of waiting. However, according to the BPA, the result of the vote must be ratified by PNG's national parliament to take effect. In 2020, former Bougainville Revolutionary Army commander Ishmael Toroama won the Bougainville presidency on the platform of delivering the region its independence. Since then, PNG and Bougainville have been involved in a series of negotiations over the referendum's outcome; the talks have often ground to a halt and have rarely produced consensus. Toroama and PNG Prime Minister James Marape concluded the latest round of negotiations at the end of June with the Melanesian Agreement. Among other things, it guarantees that PNG will bring the results of the referendum before the national parliament for a vote. The two leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to the peace process and to a continuing close relationship between PNG and Bougainville. However, the deal doesn't offer as much as it was expected to deliver or as much as it needed to deliver. PNG and Bougainville agreed last November that they wanted to reach a consensus on Bougainville's future political status before Bougainville's presidential election, and the Melanesian Agreement fell far short of that. What Happens Next? Until now, a parliamentary vote seemed like a possibility, but it was not something that Papua New Guinea had bound itself to. With this new agreement, the PNG government has formally pledged to bring the referendum result before the national parliament, yet no timeline has been announced. Other matters remain unresolved too, including whether the parliamentary vote needs a simple majority or a two-thirds majority. This has been a major point of contention between PNG and Bougainville in years past. A two-thirds threshold would make a vote in Bougainville's favor far more difficult to achieve. Meanwhile, efforts to explore compromises on Bougainville's future political status, like free association, have gone nowhere: neither side is willing to entertain them. In many ways, PNG and Bougainville remain as deadlocked as they were in 2019. The question that looms over all the others is whether PNG's parliament will ratify the referendum result and grant Bougainville its independence or not. If it does not, it raises the likelihood that Bougainville might declare independence unilaterally. The preference is 'to get independence through consensus,' said Ezekiel Massatt, Bougainville's minister for the implementation of the independence referendum, in an interview in early July. However, if PNG delays the process, Massatt said, Bougainville has 'other options' available. Bougainville's leaders, including Toroama, have been signaling for years that if PNG does not grant Bougainville its independence, the autonomous region will simply declare independence for a third time. The government has been drafting a new national constitution, which Toroama referred to last year as 'a platform that we will be using to declare Bougainville independence.' Bougainville's previous independence declarations occurred in 1975, before Papua New Guinea's own independence from Australia, and in 1990, during the civil war. Both declarations were disregarded by the international community, but that doesn't mean Bougainville won't make another attempt, especially if its avenue through the national parliament is closed for good. Toroama has set 2027 as the final deadline for Bougainville to gain independence, indicating a willingness to ignore PNG's authority if necessary. Is Bougainville Ready? Bougainville still relies on the Papua New Guinea government for the vast majority of its budget, but Massatt dismissed claims that Bougainville should meet a particular economic threshold before independence. While he believes that work on the economy must take some precedence, he does not see it as a precondition. 'We must obtain political independence in order to have some sovereign powers in order to make strategic economic decisions,' he said. 'Australia never demanded that Papua New Guinea be economically independent' before PNG's political independence in 1975, Massatt added. Wealth from the Panguna copper mine in central Bougainville bankrolled the PNG government in the early years of its independence, once making up 45 percent of national exports. Conflict over Panguna – not only the wealth that was taken from Bougainville, but also the environmental damage from the mine – would later spark the conflict that spiraled into civil war. Panguna is currently shuttered and would likely take years to reopen. Nevertheless, Toroama said in June that it is 'the key to our economic growth.' The mine is estimated to be worth more than $80 billion. Bougainville also has a large exclusive economic zone, making fisheries a potentially promising sector, although South Pacific tuna is under threat from climate change. Not everyone thinks Bougainville is prepared for independence. A senior Bougainville government official, speaking anonymously to the Guardian last month, said that independence was 'inevitable' but that Bougainville is 'nowhere near' ready. 'We want a sovereign nation that is healthy, that is viable,' said the official. The China Card As Bougainville attempts to ready itself for nationhood, the other question is foreign aid and investment. Last year, Toroama tried to garner support from the United States – unsuccessfully – and stated that he was willing to play 'the Chinese card' if other countries didn't give Bougainville the assistance it needed. China's interests in Bougainville are threefold: economic, diplomatic, and strategic. Bougainville's mineral wealth is well-established. If it becomes an independent nation, it will have another resource valuable to China: the ability to recognize Beijing over Taipei. And finally, China has a clear strategic interest in the region, including in Bougainville's neighbor, Solomon Islands. This year, a Chinese state-owned company began extending a runway not far from Panguna, while the United States has withdrawn much of its own regional engagement. Australia remains the Pacific's largest donor, and New Zealand remains an important partner, but it wouldn't be surprising if Bougainville's leaders find themselves increasingly courted by Beijing. China is unlikely to recognize Bougainville as an independent nation prematurely, but doing so also isn't necessary to pursuing its interests. All that Beijing needs to do is foster ties with Bougainville's potential future leaders. Presidential candidate Sam Kauona ran on a pro-China platform in 2020, and later insinuated that he had received campaign money from Chinese backers. Last year, he praised former Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sovagare, who signed a controversial security pact with Beijing in 2022; Kauona indicated that he would be open to a similar agreement for Bougainville if elected president. Kauona finished at an unimpressive sixth place in 2020, earning only about a third of the votes Toroama did. Thomas Raivet – a relative newcomer backed by former Bougainville president John Momis, who was well known for his openness to China – came in third place, still with just under half the votes Toroama did. Kauona, Raivet, and Toroama are once again running in the 2025 election, but so are many other candidates, and the result is anyone's guess. It remains to be seen whether incumbency will help Toroama win re-election, or hurt him. The election will occur the first week of September. Regardless of who wins, Bougainville's next president will face pressure from the electorate to deliver on the same 2027 deadline that Toroama has been promising. Whether Papua New Guinea's parliament will let that happen is another matter – as is China's potential approach to Bougainville's next leader.
Scoop
03-07-2025
- Politics
- Scoop
Bougainville Pins Hopes On Melanesian Agreement For Independence
, RNZ Pacific Senior Journalist Bougainville and Papua New Guinea have concluded many months of talks on the autonomous province's quest for independence. Most recently, the parties met for ten days at the New Zealand army camp at Burnham - a place dubbed the spiritual home of the Bougainville Peace Agreement, after it featured 28 years ago in the talks that ended the civil war. But there appeared to be few achievements the parties could point to, and there has been little communication from either government with the public. The Minister for the Implementation of the Independence Referendum, Ezekiel Masatt, managed to shed a different light on the matter in this discussion with RNZ Pacific. (This transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) Don Wiseman: There have been lots of meetings and lots of talks going back, you could say going back 28 years, but since this referendum process began, we've had nearly six years of talks, off and on, and Bougainville hasn't got much to show for it, has it? Ezekiel Masatt: In terms of what? DW: Progress has not been great. EM: Is Bougainville to blame for it? DW: I don't know. What's going on. Why? Why is no progress being made? EM: Progress, specifically in terms of what? DW: In terms of getting close to the tabling of the referendum, the process of getting toward independence by the first of September 2027, which is what the government has said it aims to do. EM: The Bougainville Government, DW: Yes, yes. The Bougainville government said that. EM: Okay. Well, let me, let me put on record the first of September date. While everybody is warming to it, that date was recommended by the Bougainville Leaders Consultative Forum, and it's a recommendation. At the moment, we going through the process of the Bougainville Constituent Assembly, who are debating the independence constitution. That starts today, coincidentally, so today and tomorrow is committed to the Bougainville Constituent Assembly, and once they've concluded their debate on the Constitution, then we'll see what happens. Now, let me make it absolutely clear, Don, that whilst we have embarked on various pathways to independence, I've always made it absolutely clear that our preferred option is to get independence through consensus, and that's through the BPA, [Bougainville Peace Agreement]. We know the history of what has transpired after the conduct of the referendum. There's been a series of consultations. There's been a breach, like I said years ago, that Papua New Guinea lives in a daily breach because there had been an agreement on ratification being a couple of years ago, that hasn't transpired. Now, despite all the hiccups, I think there's a new leash of life with the Melanesian Relationship Agreement. The Melanesian Relationship Agreement, one, allows the two governments to look at what sort of sovereign powers Bougainville can exercise in the interim. It also calls for the immediate consultation between the two Houses, the speakers and the clerk, in terms of the sessional order. And more importantly, it has called for the immediate activation of the Bipartisan Committee, and it's now been agreed that once the report of the Bipartisan Committee goes into the House, the National Parliament, then the referendum result and the consultative outcomes will also go in. We had a commitment from the chairman of the Bipartisan Committee, Dr Marat, in New Zealand, that they would commence work quickly. And I've been advised that as early as this weekend, the Bipartisan was supposed to meet in Rabaul in one of the first engagements to me, there's no delay on our part. There's no delay on our part. It's a process, and therefore, there's been some delays. We're confident in where we're going. DW: Under the Melanesian Agreement, some sovereign powers being handed down earlier. What are we talking about? EM: We haven't worked on the specifics, but my view is that, and the government's view is that, we won't be able to assume all the sovereign powers. Therefore, priority must be given to some economic sovereign powers where we can make some decisive economic decisions. I think that's the start. But despite the elections going on, I am hopeful that the technical teams can continue to meet to craft out some clear agenda in terms of which sovereign powers we can assume in the interim. DW: Okay, so you're quite confident that Port Moresby is fully supportive of the process, or do you think they're delaying the process? EM: Put it this way, does the National Government procrastinate, and they have a history, historical record of procrastinating, whether it's justified or not. We have other options that are open to us. We had this discussion before that the other option to get independence is through the working of the independent constitution, and I have in the original motion setting up the constituent assembly, I was very clear in reaching out to the National Government by making the motion for the adoption of the Constitution and any other resolution to be subject to the consultative outcome and the moderation talk. Now, having reconsidered that the possibility is there of a National Government strategy to procrastinate and to delay, I have since amended that motion - the House has amended that motion yesterday, stating clearly that the resolutions by the Constituent Assembly will no longer be in principle. If the Constituent Assembly goes ahead and adopts the Constitution, then it is within its legal right to set the date for independence. DW: So the Constituent Assembly is now the premier political body? EM: No, it's not the premier political body. It's the body that specifically deals with the amendment, rejection or adoption of the Constitution. And once it's done that, its activities come to an end. DW: We talked about the first of September 2027 and that's a maybe then. But when do you think Bougainville might be independent? How far away is it, this independence? EM: We have the recommended date. Everybody's warming to that date. The question of independence readiness, that's being addressed throughout the constituencies in Bougainville. The Autonomous Bougainville Government is working through the issues in terms of all the other economic big projects, so that we're in a position where we can sustain the economy and move forward. DW: In terms of the economy, you've still got a lot of work to do to have any degree of economic viability, don't you? EM: That's a justifiable argument. I have made it absolutely clear that the work on the economy of Bougainville must now also take some precedence. My argument is that to make the economy subject to political independence is something that I wouldn't agree to. We must obtain political independence in order to have some sovereign powers in order to make strategic economic decisions. Now, given the Melanesian Agreement where Bougainville can assume some sovereign powers, I think that's a great start in the right direction, and therefore I look forward to continued engagement by the technical officials and we can address some of these economic issues now. Having said that, it's not like we're sitting around doing nothing in Bougainville,. There are very major economic initiatives that have been taken on by the government. Another issue is, as you know, there's been the transfer of the BCL [Bougainville Copper Ltd] shares. That's an issue on its own. I'm not going to dive into that issue. And I think even on the economic issues, I have very much left it to the economic ministers to come in. But overall, to demand that Bougainville should meet some economic threshold or be economically independent before political independence, is a foolish argument. Australia never demanded that Papua New Guinea be economically independent. When Papua New Guinea got its independence, it had nothing except the Panguna Mine to deal with. I don't know why everybody's imposing on that economy. Whilst it's a genuine call, I think it's an internal matter for Bougainville to work on its economy. We're not shying away from that responsibility.
Otago Daily Times
05-06-2025
- Politics
- Otago Daily Times
PNG, Bougainville holding talks at Burnham
Photo: Autonomous Bougainville Government Talks between Papua New Guinea and Bougainville to decide on issues surrounding an independence referendum are to be held at Burnham military camp near Christchurch this weekend. The moderator in the talks is former New Zealand governor-general Sir Jerry Mateparae, who sought to have the discussion at Burnham where critical talks in 1997 helped end the Bougainville civil war. The Burnham consultations will be conducted by Sir Jerry with the support of United Nations officials. Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said the government will provide the venue and environment necessary for substantive discussions on Bougainville's political future. It is the third round of talks to try and resolve how the 2019 referendum results are tabled in the PNG parliament. The Bougainville government is strongly in support of independence from PNG and expects to achieve that status by 2027. Peters said reaching a mutually agreed outcome is important for Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, and the wider region, "is upholding the integrity of the Bougainville Peace Agreement, to which New Zealand is a witnessing signatory".
Scoop
04-06-2025
- Politics
- Scoop
New Zealand To Host Consultations On Bougainville At Burnham
Rt Hon Winston Peters Minister of Foreign Affairs NewZealand will host post-referendum talks between the Government of PapuaNewGuinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced. The 'Burnham Consultations' will be held at Burnham Military Camp at the request of Sir Jerry Mateparae, as independent moderator. The discussions will be led by Sir Jerry and his United Nations team. 'NewZealand looks forward to welcoming parties to the Bougainville Peace Agreement back to Burnham — 28 years after we last hosted peace talks there,' Mr Peters says. 'Our involvement is to provide the venue and environment necessary for substantive discussions on Bougainville's political future. 'Reaching a mutually agreed outcome is important for Papua New Guinea, Bougainville, and the wider region, as is upholding the integrity of the Bougainville Peace Agreement, to which New Zealand is a witnessing signatory.' Representatives will travel from Port Moresby to Christchurch on Friday to attend the talks.
Scoop
22-04-2025
- Politics
- Scoop
Bougainville Takes The Initiative In Independence Mediation
Article – RNZ While Papua New Guinea and Bougainville continue the mediation process over the region's desire for independence, Bougainville's leaders are separately laying down markers of what they are expecting. Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific Senior Journalist In recent weeks, Bougainville has taken the initiative, boldly stating that it expects to be independent by 1 September 2027. It also expects the PNG parliament to quickly ratify the 2019 referendum, in which an overwhelming majority of Bougainvilleans supported independence. In a third move, it established a Constitution Commission and included it within the region's autonomous parliament. To learn more, RNZ Pacific spoke with Australian National University academic Thiago Oppermann, who has spent many years in both Bougainville and PNG. (The transcript has been edited for brevity and clarity.) Don Wiseman: We've had five-and-a-half years since the Bougainville referendum, but very suddenly in the last couple of months, it would seem that Bougainville is picking up pace and trying to really make some progress with this march towards independence, as they see it. Are they overplaying their hand? Thiago Oppermann: I do not believe that they are overplaying their hand. I think that the impression that is apparent of a sudden flurry of activity, arises partly because for the first two years after the referendum, there was a very slow pace. One of the shortcomings of the Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA) was that it did not set out a very clear post-referendum path. That part of the process was not as well designed as the parts leading to the referendum, and that left a great deal of uncertainty as to how to structure negotiations, how things should be conducted, and quite substantial differences in the views of the Papua New Guinean government and the ABG (Autonomous Bougainville Government), as to how the referendum result would be processed further. For instance, how it would it need to be tabled in parliament, what kind of vote would be required for it, would a negotiation between the parties lead to an agreement that then is presented to the parliament, and how would that negotiation work? All these areas, they were not prescriptive, in the BPA. That led to a period of a good two years in which there was very slow process and then attempts to get some some movement. I would say that in that period, the views of the Bougainvilleans and the Papua New Guineans became quite entrenched in quite different camps, and something I think would have to give eventually. Why the Bougainvilleans have moved towards this point now, I think that it bears pointing out that there has been a long process that has been unfolding, for more than two years now, of beginning the organic process of developing a Bougainvillean constitutional process with this constitutional development committees across the island doing a lot of work, and that has now borne fruit, is how I would describe it. It happens at a point where the process has been unblocked by the appointment of Sir Jerry Mataparae, which I think sets a new vigour into the process. It looks now like it's heading towards some form of outcome. And that being the case, the Bougainvilleans have made their position quite clear. DW: Well, Bougainville, in fact, is saying it will be independent by 1st September 2027. How likely do you think that is? TO: I think there's a question that comes before that. When Bougainville says that they will be independent by such a date, what we need to first consider is that the process of mediation is still unfolding. I think that the first thing to consider is, what would that independence look like, and what scope is there within the mediation for finding some compromise that still suits Papua New Guinea. I think that there's a much greater range of outcomes than people realise within this sort of umbrella of independence, the Bougainvilleans themselves, have moved to a position of understanding independence in much more nuanced terms than previously. You might imagine that in the aftermath of this fairly brutal and bitter civil conflict, the idea of independence at that time was quite a radical cut towards 'full bruk loose' as they say. But the reality is that for many post colonial and new states since World War Two, there are many different kinds of independence and the degree to which there remains a kind of attachment with or relationship with the so called parent colonial country is variable, I should add. I do not want to digress too much, but this concept of the parent colonial country is something that I heard quite a lot of when I was studying the referendum itself. Many people would say that the relationship that they had to Papua New Guinea was not one of enmity or of like running away, it was more a question of there being a parent and Bougainville having now grown up to the point where the child, Bougainville, is ready to go off and set up its own house. Many people thought of it in those terms. Now I think that in concrete terms that can be articulated in many different ways when we think about international law and the status of different sovereign nations around the world. DW: If we can just look at some of the possibilities in terms of the way in which this independence might be interpreted. My understanding is, for Bougainville it's vital that they have a degree of sovereignty that will allow them to join organisations like the United Nations, but they're not necessarily looking to be fully independent of PNG. TO: Yes, I think that there would be like a process underway in Bougainville for understanding what that would look like. There are certainly people who would have a view that is still more firmly towards full independence. And there will be others who understand some type of free association arrangements or something that still retains a closer relationship with Papua New Guinea. I do not think many people have illusions that Bougainville could, for instance, suddenly break loose of the very deep economic connections it has with Papua New Guinea, not only those of government funding, but the commercial connections which are very, very deep. So suddenly making that disappear is not something people believe it's possible. But there are many other options that are on the table. I think what Bougainville is doing by having the announcement of the Independence Day is setting for Papua New Guinea saying, like, 'here is the terms of the debate that we are prepared to consider'. But within that there is still a great deal of giving and taking. DW: Now within the parliament in PNG, I think Bougainville has felt for some time that there hasn't been a great deal of understanding of what Bougainville has been through, or what it is Bougainville is trying to achieve. There's a very different lineup of MPs to what they were at the turn of the century when the Bougainville Peace Agreement was finalised. So what are they thinking, the MPs from other parts of the country? Are they going to be supportive, or are they just thinking about the impact on their own patch? TO: I am not entirely sure what the MPs think, and they are a very diverse bunch of people. The sort of concern I think that many have, certainly more senior ones, that they do not want to be the people in charge when this large chunk of the country secedes. I think that is something that is important, and we do not want to be patronising the Papua New Guineans have a great deal of national pride, and it is not an event of celebration to see what is going on. For many, it is quite a tragic chain of events. I am not entirely sure what the bulk of MPs believes about this. We have conducted some research, which is non randomised, but it is quite large scale, probing attitudes towards Bougainvillean independence in 2022, around the time of the election. What we found, which is quite surprising, is that whilst of course, Bougainville has the highest support for independence of any place in Papua New Guinea, there are substantial numbers of people outside Bougainville that are sympathetic to Bougainvillean independence or sympathetic towards implementing the referendum. I think that would be the wording, I would choose, quite large numbers of people. So, as well as, many people who are very much undecided on the issues. From a Papua New Guinean perspective, the views are much more subtle than you might think are the case. By comparison, if you did a survey in Madrid of how many people support Catalan independence, you would not see figures similar to the ones that we find for Papua New Guinea. DW: Bougainville is due to go to elections later this year. The ABG has stated that it wants this matter sorted, I think, at the time that the election writs are issued sometime in June. Will it be able to do this do you think? TO: It's always difficult to predict anything, especially the future. That goes double in Papua New Guinea and Bougainville. I think the reality is that the nature of negotiations here and in Bougainville, there's a great deal of personal connections and toing and froing that will be taking place. It is very hard to fit that onto a clear timeline. I would describe that as perhaps aspirational, but it would be, it would be good. Whether this is, you know, a question of electoral politics within Bougainville, I think there would be, like, a more or less unanimous view in Bougainville that this needs to move forward as soon as possible. But I don't know that a timeline is realistic. The concerns that I would have about this, Don, would be not just about sort of questions of capacity and what happens in the negotiations in Bougainville, but we also need to think about what is happening in Papua New Guinea, and this goes for the entire process. But here, in this case, PNG has its hands full with many other issues as well. There is a set of like LLG [Local Level Government] elections about to happen, so there are a great deal of things for the government to attend to. I wonder how viable it is to come up with a solution in a short time, but they are certainly capable of surprising everybody. DW: The Prime Minister, James Marape, has said on a number of occasions that Bougainville is not economically ready or it hasn't got the security situation under control. And my understanding is that when this was raised at the last meeting, there was quite a lot of giggling going on, because people were comparing what's happened in Bougainville with what's happening around the rest of the country, including in Southern Highlanbds, the province of Mr Marape. TO: I think you know for me when I think about this, because I have worked with Bougainvilleans for a long time, and have worked with Papua New Guineans for a long time as well. The sense that I have is really one of quite sadness and a great missed opportunity. Because if we wind the clock back to 1975, Bougainville declared independence, trying to pre-empt [the establishment of] Papua New Guinea. And that set in train a set of events that drastically reformed the Papua New Guinean Political Constitution. Many of the sort of characteristic institutions we see now in Papua New Guinea, such as provinces, came about partly because of that. That crisis, that first independence crisis, the first secession crisis, was resolved through deep changes to Papua New Guinea and to Bougainville, in which the country was able to grow and move forward. What we see now, though, is this sort of view that Bougainville problems must all be solved in Bougainville, but in fact, many of the problems that are said to be Bougainville problems are Papua New Guinea problems, and that would include issues such as the economic difficulties that Bougainville finds itself in. I mean, there are many ironies with this kind of criticism that Bougainville is not economically viable. One of them being that when Papua New Guinea became independent, it was largely dependent on Bougainville at that time. So Bougainvilleans are aware of this, and don't really welcome that kind of idea. But I think that more deeply there were some really important lessons I believe that could have been learned from the peace process that might have been very useful in other areas of Papua New Guinea, and because Bougainville has been kind of seen as this place apart, virtually as a foreign nation, those lessons have not, unfortunately, filtered back to Papua New Guinea in a way that might have been very helpful for everybody.
