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DW
01-07-2025
- Business
- DW
Airlines in turbulence as flight risks rise amid conflicts – DW – 07/01/2025
A range of global conflicts, from Ukraine to the Middle East, are reshaping global aviation. Airlines not only have to avoid certain airspaces but also be prepared for possible interference in their flight systems. The war between Iran and Israel in the Middle East has led to complications for airlines seeking to avoid the airspace whilst also complying with an ongoing Russian airspace ban. Although Iranian airspace has partially reopened following a ceasefire, data from flight tracking website flightradar24 shows that Western airlines are still largely avoiding flying over the country. Most are choosing routes skirting the country's western border, through Iraqi airspace, or over the Arabian peninsula. With Russia having barred Western planes from its skies since 2022, it's the latest example of how an era of rising global conflict is affecting the aviation sector. Another example came in April this year, when Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian carriers after India launched missile strikes on Pakistan, in a military campaign codenamed Operation Sindoor. Although Western airlines are not barred from Pakistani airspace, most currently choose to avoid it. Brendan Sobie, a Singapore-based aviation analyst, says airlines having to reroute due to conflict is nothing new, but he notes that things are especially "complicated" at present. "It's happened a few times now where we've had a lot of chunks of air space in close proximity to each other, close at the same time," he told DW. John Grant, chief analyst at the aviation data company OAG, agrees that there is "a lot more activity" at the moment. He says the Pakistan-India airspace closure is a particular problem for Air India as it means the company's planes must now make a stop during trips to the United States. What has been happening in the Middle East "absolutely is a problem," he argues, noting, however, that airlines have been "adjusting well," particularly by flying over the Arabian Peninsula. "Some people in Saudi Arabia have obviously been a lot busier than they're normally accustomed to, but it hasn't disrupted flight schedules," he told DW. "Aircraft is still arriving and departing on time, and the industry continues to manage its way through these things." In Grant's view, the complications caused by armed conflicts are part of the general unpredictability faced by airline managers all the time. "If we cast our minds back four or five years, the airlines had to deal with a pandemic, which was much worse than anything else," he said, adding that he doesn't believe though that the challenges of operating this year are very different to those of the last decade. "I think every airline CEO probably wakes up every morning, or at least his flight operations director wakes up and wonders what next event or activity in two years that's going to have to be managed and worked through." In terms of business bottom lines, Brendan Sobie says it is often the shorter haul flights that are worst affected by airspace closures. So, for example, the routes between Central Asian countries and the Middle East following the closure of Iranian airspace. "These tend to be short routes, two, three hours, and they become five, six hours, because usually the almost entire flight is over Iran, and you have to go all the way around," said Sobie. He added that repeated airspace closures "can be quite expensive" because of longer flights and the risk of cancelled flights, due to changed route paths. "It all adds cost." John Grant thinks that European airlines have had three years to adjust to the Russian airspace ban and have largely coped. But other factors, such as surging environmental taxes, are having just as detrimental an impact on airlines, making operations "too expensive," with the arising cost getting "passed on to the traveler." Yet, the perception that global conflict is impacting aviation safety is clearly a concern. Nick Careen, senior vice president for operations, safety and security at the International Air Transport Association (IATA) — an airline trade body — wrote an article in late June for the IATA website titled "Operating Safely in a More Conflict-Ridden World." With a reference to the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 last December, he wrote: "Recent conflict in the Middle East understandably has passengers asking what measures are in place to keep flying safe when there are military activities including missile launches." Investigations suggest it was shot down by a Russian missile. Careen raised the specific issue of interference with airplane navigation systems as "a further complication." There has been a "surge in incidents," he said, where "parties in conflict use radio signals to jam the GPS signals that airliners use for navigation," particularly in areas bordering conflict zones. Flightradar24's GPS jamming map shows a map of the world divided into areas of low and high GPS interference. The area with the highest level of interference is a circle stretching from the Baltic states, across Ukraine and Russia, and down towards Turkey and parts of the Middle East. Grant notes that GPS jamming is "another potential risk" to the airline industry," but adds that airlines are "extremely conscious of this and have more than one system for navigating their way through these pieces of airspace." A study by the OPS Group, an international flight operations membership organization, reported a 500% increase in so-called "GPS Spoofing" between 2023 and 2024. GPS spoofing is where a GPS receiver is manipulated and receives false GPS Information. Grant thinks the practice is undoubtedly on the rise, but cautions that airlines have robust mechanisms in place to guard against the risks it poses. "The whole industry works on a basis of minimizing every potential risk," he said, adding: "Airlines are very good at controlling what they can control. But there are always uncontrollable factors."
CNN
20-06-2025
- CNN
Escalating crises are redrawing the air map of the world. Here's what that means for flyers
Look at a map of the world showing all the airplanes currently in the air and what stands out most — apart from the staggering number of aircraft up there — are the gigantic holes in the sky where no flights can be found. These no-fly zones usually occur where there's a risk to aircraft safety from events on the ground. The escalating conflict in the Middle East is the latest global situation to punch holes through air traffic flows, a situation that aviation experts say is costing commercial airlines time and money as they reroute or cancel flights. It's a reminder that, even when cocooned in a metal tube at 40,000 feet, watching a Hollywood movie and being served dinner and drinks, air passengers remain inescapably tied to the events happening far below them. Global travel is subject to the whims of international geopolitics at most times, but never more so than in the sky. However, after contending with a string of conflicts going back to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and beyond, the disruption of war has become a fact of life that airlines have become adept at dealing with. And natural disasters, like the current volcanic eruption near Bali, Indonesia, can be much more troublesome for the air carriers, one analyst says. 'Airspace closures have become quite common,' said Brendan Sobie, a Singapore-based aviation consultant. 'It's almost like the new normal for airlines to have to navigate this kind of thing,' he told CNN, mentioning the recent flare-up of tensions between India and Pakistan, last year's strikes by Israel and Iran and the war in Ukraine as just some of the manmade events that have disrupted air travel in recent years. As live air tracking maps from websites like FlightRadar24 show, there are now gaping holes over Israel, Iraq, Iran and Ukraine with most traffic squeezed into corridors that skirt around those countries. There is still some international air traffic over Russia, but this mainly consists of Chinese carriers like Air China, Xiamen Air or Cathay Pacific. Russian airspace bordering Ukraine has been closed to all commercial airlines since the start of the invasion, so China's European routes primarily enter or depart above the Baltic Sea, near St. Petersburg. 'Airlines have departments of people constantly looking at airspace issues and assessing risk,' Sobie said, adding that each airline has different variables on how they operate. 'Even airspace that's open, some airlines might deem it as not safe' and reroute accordingly, he said. Often that rerouting involves significant diversions. Pilots must be able to fly far enough away from danger zones that unexpected weather conditions do not accidentally push them over the line, or on-board crises force them to make emergency landings in the wrong place. Increasingly, in an age of cyber warfare, there's also the potential danger of GPS jamming or spoofing around combat zones — with satellite navigation systems at risk of being tricked into showing false locations. No matter the airline, flight disruptions cost money — a lot of it, said Tony Stanton, consultant director of Strategic Air in Australia. For example, he said the current conflict in Iran and Israel is forcing carriers to add two hours on to nonstop flights from London to Hong Kong. Even for relatively efficient long-haul jetliners like Boeing's 777 or Airbus' A350, that means using up considerably more fuel. 'To put that into perspective, whilst many factors affect fuel burn, a B777 burns around $7,000 per hour of fuel as a rough estimate,' Stanton said. Besides fuel, airlines may see increased costs for crew time, new charges to overfly different airspace as well as lost revenue from delays and cancellations. And those losses cannot be quickly recouped because most passengers have booked their tickets weeks or months in advance of the event that's causing the problems. Adding those costs into future ticket sales may not be possible because supply and demand on routes may have changed since the conflict began, the analysts said. 'The business of running a profitable airline is not easy,' Stanton noted. While the current Mideast conflict has seen commercial flights to Iran and Israel stopped entirely, airlines that would once fly over those destinations are having to change routes. Sobie said that the biggest effect proportionately has been on short-haul flights between Central Asia and Mideast destinations like Dubai or Doha. Those flights might have spent two hours of a three- or four-hour flight in Iranian airspace before the fighting began, he said. Many flights that would have crossed Iranian, Iraqi, Jordanian or Israeli airspace are rerouting to flight corridors over Saudi Arabia, Egypt and up into Turkey, Stanton said. 'FlightRadar24 clearly shows how air traffic is currently being pressed into two narrow corridors, particularly a corridor to the south of the conflict zones.' That can mean more work for air traffic controllers, who are fitting more aircraft into smaller spaces, said experts. Accommodations can be made by adjusting things like flight altitudes and take-off times, they said — however, these factors too can have an impact on price, with prime airport 'slots' for take-off and landing costing airlines yet more cash. The analysts also noted that more people and planes are flying today than ever before, and that makes handling any disruptions for conflict more difficult. For instance, air traffic in the Persian Gulf region is three times what it was just a few years ago, Sobie said. The potentially tragic stakes of crossing certain airspace regions were starkly highlighted in July 2014 when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a surface-to-air missile launched from an area of Ukraine held by pro-Russian rebels. The incident claimed the lives of all 298 people on board. Adding to the air carriers' concerns is the lack of certainty on when conflicts end. For instance, the war in Ukraine started in February 2022, and route changes and cancellations that resulted from that are still in effect. Flight restrictions imposed after flare-ups between Iran and Israel last year were short-lived, Sobie said. Even with the uncertainty of war, Stanton noted there are bigger worries for air carriers, like volcanoes. 'The most common other phenomenon impacting air routes is volcanic eruptions like what we see in Bali today,' Stanton said. Clouds of volcanic ash contain silica, which can fuse to jet engine parts with catastrophic consequences, can be blown over long distances in high-altitude winds, he said, noting that the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland affected more than 10 million passengers and cost airlines over $1.7 billion. As thick clouds billowed out of Eyjafjallajökull, the skies over the North Atlantic — one of the world's busiest aviation routes — fell silent, with air traffic dropping to levels that wouldn't be seen again until the Covid pandemic a decade later. 'A volcano's eruption can have much greater impacts than a conflict zone,' Stanton said. CNN's Barry Neild contributed to this report.
Straits Times
05-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Air France, Lufthansa, others avoid Pakistan airspace amid India tensions
FILE PHOTO: Logo of Lufthansa is seen in Munich, Germany July 27, 2022. REUTERS/Michaela Rehle/File Photo NEW DELHI - Air France and Germany's Lufthansa were among global carriers avoiding Pakistani airspace, airlines said and flight-tracking websites showed on Monday, as tension between nuclear-armed neighbours India and Pakistan remained high after a deadly attack in Kashmir last month. India took measures such as closing its airspace to Pakistan airlines, while Pakistan barred those owned or operated by its neighbour, suspended trade and halted special visas for Indians, although it let international airlines use its airspace. Lufthansa Group's airlines are "avoiding Pakistani airspace until further notice" it said in a statement to Reuters, although that will result in longer flight times on some routes to Asia. Lufthansa Flight LH760 from Frankfurt to New Delhi had to fly for nearly an hour longer than usual on Sunday because it took a longer route, data from flight-tracking website Flightradar24 showed. Flight-tracking data showed some flights of British Airways, Swiss International Air Lines and Emirates travelling over the Arabian Sea and then turning north towards Delhi in order to avoid Pakistani airspace. British Airways and Emirates did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Air France said in a statement: "The airline has decided to suspend overflight of Pakistan until further notice," citing the "recent evolution of tensions" between India and Pakistan. The carrier said it was altering its flight schedule and flight plans with destinations such as Delhi, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh, entailing longer flight times. Swiss, owned by Lufthansa Group, said the airline will rebook passengers who miss connecting flights free of charge. Airlines have also been reacting to developments in the Middle East, with European and U.S. carriers cancelling flights for several days after a missile fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels on Sunday landed near Israel's Ben Gurion Airport. Besides the longer distances and higher fuel costs for airlines, Pakistan may see a drop in its earnings from overflight fees, which can run into hundreds of dollars a flight depending on aircraft weight and distance covered. Pakistan's reserves with the central bank stand at $10.2 billion, barely enough to cover two months' worth of imports. "It could have a significant impact on some foreign airlines who rely heavily on Pakistan airspace as well as for Pakistan given the loss of overflight revenues," independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie said. Pakistan's civil aviation authority declined to comment. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
