Latest news with #BrianJacobsen
Time of India
8 hours ago
- Automotive
- Time of India
US-Japan trade deal: Wall Street rallies, stocks hit new highs; tariff relief fuels global optimism
This is an AI-image, used for representational purposes only. US stocks extended their record-breaking run on Wednesday after Washington and Tokyo struck a deal to slash proposed tariffs, fuelling optimism about further trade breakthroughs. The S&P 500 rose 0.4 per cent in early trading, while the Dow Jones climbed 232 points or 0.5 per cent, and the Nasdaq added 0.3 per cent. The momentum followed US President Donald Trump's announcement of a trade framework with Japan that would impose a reduced 15 per cent tariff on Japanese imports, instead of the previously threatened 25 per cent rate set to take effect on August 1. The change was widely welcomed by investors. "It's a sign of the times that markets would cheer 15 per cent tariffs," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, as quoted by news agency AP. 'A year ago, that level of tariffs would be shocking. Today, we breathe a sigh of relief.' The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo surged 3.5 per cent, leading global gains. Japanese car stocks rallied sharply. Toyota jumped over 14 per cent, Mitsubishi 13 per cent and Nissan 8 per cent, reported AFP. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like End Season Sale: Special Discount Luxury Watches Buy Now Undo The deal also lowers US tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15 per cent, offering a reprieve for a sector that accounts for nearly 8 per cent of Japan's workforce. European markets followed suit. France's CAC 40 rose 1.2 per cent, Germany's DAX gained 0.6 per cent, and London's FTSE 100 touched a new high before settling 0.4 per cent higher. Trump also announced similar agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, reducing levies and raising hopes for additional deals before the upcoming tariff deadline. 'News of a trade agreement between the US and Japan is fostering optimism... that further deals might be reached before punishing tariffs come into force,' said AJ Bell's Russ Mould, as per news agency AFP. Meanwhile, corporate earnings reflected mixed reactions to existing tariffs. Hasbro took a $1 billion write-down, though said tariffs had not yet affected profit margins. Texas Instruments fell 11.3 per cent despite beating expectations, after cautioning that uncertainty around tariffs may dent demand. On the other hand, GE Vernova rose 10.5 per cent after strong results and an improved revenue forecast, even as it expected a tariff-related cost between $300-$400 million. Investors also chased speculative gains. Krispy Kreme soared 25.4 per cent and GoPro 51.1 per cent, while recent favourite Opendoor dropped 16.6 per cent as the meme stock frenzy shifted. As per AFP, the broader outlook remains upbeat with hopes pinned on Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings. Analysts say strong AI-related performance could spark another tech rally. In bond markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield edged up to 4.37 per cent. Globally, currencies and oil prices saw mild movement, with Brent down 0.4 per cent at $68.32 per barrel. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed should've cut rates in 'April and May,' economist says
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made a clear call for an interest rate cut at the Fed's July meeting, citing signs of weakness in the labor market. Brian Jacobsen, chief economist and strategist at Annex Wealth Management, joins Market Catalysts to break down Waller's stance and what it signals for the Fed's path ahead. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. A Fed governor, Christopher Waller, made his strongest call yet for a rate cut in July. Waller, who's reportedly on Trump's shortlist to replace Powell as Fed chair, opened a speech Thursday bluntly stating, quote, "I believe we should cut the policy rate at our meeting in two weeks." With me now to discuss his commentary, Brian Jacobson, Annex Wealth Management chief economist and strategist. Brian, it's great to see you. And I would love your take on Chris Waller's argument, which he, you know, this was not a tweet argument, right? This was not a press conference sound bite. This was sort of a long laid-out argument for why he thinks the labor market in particular is weaker than it appears and warrants a cut. What do you think? Does he make a convincing argument? Well, I think you're absolutely right. There is a lot of steak, and not necessarily just sizzle, to what he said. And if you think about the trajectory of Waller's views on monetary policy, I think he does really bear listening to, because he was very hawkish just a couple of years ago, and then he's shifted to being a little bit more, hey, let's go on pause, but then shifting back towards, now you could argue, being more dovish. So, he is not just going to kind of like tow the line. He's an independent thinker and there's a lot of substance to what he says. My concern is that really the time to have been cutting rates was April and May, and we might actually get some strength now to the overall economy because of the one big beautiful bill. There's a lot of incentives in there for business investment. And so, maybe some of the weakness that we have seen in the private sector labor market, which is what he's been focused on, not just the overall, which includes the public sector. So, private sector payroll growth has really been lackluster. But now, are we going to see a reacceleration as lots of businesses decide that, wow, 2025, we can take advantage of some of this 100% bonus depreciation. Let's really maybe launch some of these capital expenditure plans that we had put on pause for a while. So it sounds like you think the balance of risks skews more, in other words, it is more risky to cut than to wait at this point, in your view, if I'm reading you correctly. Well, I do think that the level of the interest rates right now is still restrictive. It's about more where are we likely to be come September, October, November? I think we'll see that reacceleration there. Now, I could be wrong about that. I would think that the balance of risks would suggest that shifting to slightly lower rates. I put the neutral fed funds rate right now where maybe they should be at about half a percentage point lower than where they are, right? So, maybe that's kind of splitting hairs when you think about all of the errors in forecasts, and also the volatility of the underlying economic data. But I could see maybe 50 basis points more of cuts, and then that being more appropriate. So I would love to see the Fed do a little bit more of an adjustment. I think they paused prematurely, and I would like to see them kind of maybe course correct here. And so I'm pretty sympathetic with what Waller has said. Interesting. Okay, so how is all of this translating into your strategy right now? I mean, obviously, the Fed's not the only game in town. We still have the tariff headlines sort of hanging over the market to some extent, and we're in earnings season. So what does all of that equal for you? Well, I think that it's really about we're towards the end of that storm, right? I think Jamie Dimon, was it a year ago or two years ago? Lose track of time now where he said, you know, like a storm was coming. And then, for a while, we're in the eye of the storm, and now, maybe, we're at the back end of that storm in terms of the uncertainty, because a lot of that is going to be resolving, hopefully, by August 1st. Maybe there'll be a punting of that deadline for certain parties and the such. But once we get that type of clarity, I think that really, then, we'll see CEOs and CFOs no longer sitting on their hands, really thinking about what their expansion plans look like. Because, right now, it feels like they're kind of in survival mode thinking, you know, there's no reason to make any sorts of moves now, when if we just wait a month or two, that we'll get more information and can make a more informed decision. So I think that really, I'm still positioned for growth in the overall economy, a reacceleration as we go towards the end of this year, and that argues, I think, for cyclicals, like industrials, financials, and a little bit of perhaps defensives in there in terms of healthcare, just for good measure. Related Videos July preliminary consumer sentiment: What it means for the Fed Fed Governor Waller thinks interest rates are over 1% too high Fed's Waller on Labor Market, Rate Cuts, Inflation, Fed Chair Rate Cuts Ahead? Fed Voices Weigh In as Stocks Hit Record High Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Fox News
04-07-2025
- Business
- Fox News
Business Rundown: Can The Fireworks Last On Wall Street?
The first half of 2025 was full of economic surprises and volatility. With recent record highs in US markets, this Independence Day we're looking at if the fireworks can continue for Wall Street. FOX Business correspondent Gerri Willis speaks with Annex Wealth Management's chief economist Brian Jacobsen about how we got here from Liberation Day and shares which stocks & sectors are trending hot in 2025. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit
Yahoo
03-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed might do 'supersized' rate cuts in the fall, economist says
Investors are watching record highs in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), but questions remain about what's already priced in. Brian Jacobsen, chief economist and strategist at Annex Wealth Management, says a "supersized" interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve could come in September if inflation data stays mild and tariff pressures remain limited. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here. What is already priced into this market with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite records? That would seem to be already pricing in the bill passing, which it seems set to do. The tariff outcomes being relatively benign, we don't know if that's going to be the case, right? It doesn't feel like it's priced. They're pricing in a lot of negative potential outcomes here. I think you're absolutely correct. But when you look underneath the hood of the market, where the Fed funds futures are saying that there's basically no chance that the Fed is going to cut in July, I think that there's actually an increased probability that they might do a supersized cut in September, a lot like they did last year. Because we do know that the Fed chair Powell has said that if it wasn't for the tariff uncertainty that they really wouldn't have paused. And so if we get some rather tame inflation numbers, which I think we will get when the ones are released in a couple weeks and then before their September meeting, they could realize that, you know, tariffs, they do have an effect, but it's been mostly on the cost side for businesses. We've seen it also on the labor side a little bit. I mean, in today's report, even though it was a beat with the headline number, we actually saw a decline in aggregate hours worked across the economy of 0.6%. So more jobs were created, but the hours were cut. And so I think that it's not showing that the economy is in a position where it's really vulnerable and needs a rate cut, but I think that the Fed will feel like they can cut and they should have been continuing to cut all along. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
24-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Middle East ETFs Jump on Hopes for Regional Cool-Off
ETFs covering Middle East countries, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, climbed on hopes that U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may create a more peaceful region and boost the nations' economies. Funds that also hold Qatar and United Arab Emirates equities moved higher after U.S. bombers hit Iran's nuclear facilities early Sunday morning. While the mission's results are being assessed, the raids appear to have set back Iran's nuclear program, while questions remain on whether or not the country retains access to its enriched uranium and if it can rapidly bring centrifuges back online. The performance of exchange-traded funds that hold shares of Middle East countries has been mixed, with the $660.5 million iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) dropping 9% so far this year and the $273.6 million iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) adding 14%. Nations in the oil-rich region are attempting to transition into financial and real estate hubs while still fighting religious insurgencies, corruption and outright war between Israel and Iranian proxy militias Hamas and Hezbollah. The U.S. military action, which came after Iran was censured by a U.N. nuclear agency for failing to comply with non-proliferation obligations, may have improved the region's economic outlook by removing the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran. 'It does seem like the temperature of tensions can be turned down,' Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Brookfield, Wisconsin-based Annex Wealth Management, said in an email. 'That might not mean peace, but it should mean a resumption of growth.' Middle East ETFs—Source: FactSet data KSA rose 0.7% Monday afternoon. The fund, with net inflows of $108.5 million this year through June 20, is mostly allocated to financial firms. Its largest holding is Al Rajhi Bank and the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Aramco, is its No. 2 holding. EIS, mostly holding financial services, pharmaceuticals and tech companies, added 0.7%. The $129.3 million iShares MSCI UAE ETF (UAE) added 1.1% Monday afternoon. That fund, 8.4% higher this year, is more than half allocated to financial services, and its top holding is Emaar Properties. The $78.1 million iShares MSCI Qatar ETF (QAT) moved 0.7% higher Monday afternoon. That fund is mostly invested in stocks of banking companies, with Qatar National Bank being its top holding. "Often when a military event happens, the market starts to look through the event instead of at the event,' Jacobsen said. 'It's about asking, 'What's on the other side?''Permalink | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved
