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New Statesman
a day ago
- Politics
- New Statesman
Even centrists want to vote for Reform
Photo byPollsters love to taxonomize the British voter. I still remember discovering I was 'Jam and Jerusalem' in YouGov's segmentation of the country for Sunder Katwala's British Future in 2013. Twee, maybe. Simplistic? Definitely. But it can be helpful to segment the nation along vibes-based lines. And More in Common's latest effort to define the electorate is successful: you belong to one of seven types, they say. That's at least more nuanced than talking about Britain solely through the prism of the Red and Blue walls. And, it's better than than binning red-brick Britain off into being just 'left-behind', too. But all this presentation I feel misses what the dominant strand is and what isn't. There's seven segments. But the seven segments aren't of equal size. The Times writeup struggles to tell me that. You only know your segment's size once you complete the quiz. Now analysing the segments in isolation isn't quite so exciting as analysing them relative to one another. Most are exhausted and irate with the status quo. 'Progressive activists' make up more than one-third of the 'left front' in Britain. 'Traditional conservatives' are the smallest section of the country going. 'Established liberals', undoubtedly the demographic David Cameron's Tories went to such great lengths to entice in 2010, make up only nine per cent of the population today. And how they vote – well, take a look. Four of the seven segments are significantly Reform friendly right now. What does that tell us? Yep, that's a broad coalition. When Ukip was on the ascendancy there were plenty of people dismissing the party's voter as little more than retired half-colonels who hate the EU. It was nonsense then. And it would be utter insanity to claim now. These segments show that Reform's appeal is anything but narrow. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe Which makes their rise all the more frightening, if not absolute. Continuous council by-election wins, not just in the north and midlands but the affluent south too can be explained through these segments. The Reform zeal has attracted not just those who want to smash things up for reasons of immigrant angst – and then some. But also those less socially conservative: even amongst these so-called 'sceptical scrollers', where voters are quite split on whether Britain should allow more or fewer immigrants in, Reform has a healthy lead over its opposition. Segmenting Britain is like this is fun. And it has value. Voters don't see themselves voting on single issues alone. They marry up to packages, to brands, to visions. Most voters agreed with the detail of Corbynomics, of wealth taxes and public ownership. But they didn't come running for the Corbyn brand thanks to lesser appreciated sentiments about trust and confidence, about identity and belonging, that felt alien to Corbyn's Labour party. One could agree with everything put about in Rachel Reeves' Spending Review. But if you're insecure as to the state of the nation, irritated with immigrants and conspiratorial about systems, you're unlikely to give the chancellor full marks. Or any marks. Vibes matter. [See more: The OBR is always wrong] Related
Daily Mirror
a day ago
- Politics
- Daily Mirror
UK a 'powder keg' for more summer riots due to dangerous 'doom loop' warning
Former Tory Home Secretary Sajid Javid has warned the UK is 'sitting on a tinderbox of disconnection and division' as a new report says tensions from last summer remain unaddressed The UK is a "powder keg" at risk of more violence like the riots that broke out last summer, an alarming report published today(TUE) warns. A "doom loop" of inaction and lack of social contact has left the UK deeply divided and mistrustful, researchers found. Former Tory Home Secretary Sir Sajid Javid said the UK is "sitting on a tinderbox of disconnection and division". The report, The State of Us, found the mismanagement of immigration, the cost of living and online extremism - alongside growing mistrust in government and rising equality - cannot be ignored. It said that a year on from the violence last summer, fuelled by misinformation about the Southport murders, these issues remain unaddressed. Jake Puddle, senior researcher at British Future, who led the research, said: 'We are facing a long, hot summer, with a powder keg of tensions left largely unaddressed from last year that could easily ignite once again. People are unhappy about their standard of living and the state of their local area, and don't trust politicians to sort it out." The document warns that too little has been done to bring communities together. In a stark foreward to the report, Sir Sajid and former Labour MP John Cruddas wrote: "These forces are converging into something altogether more dangerous - leaving the UK sitting on a tinderbox of disconnection and division." READ MORE: Keir Starmer to have secretive catch-up with Donald Trump during Scotland golfing holiday The report found that 15million people say they never or rarely meet people from different backgrounds. A further 30% say they do not meet people in their local communities. Mr Puddle said: "Public concerns about immigration and asylum can also be a flashpoint. That's only made worse when people have little contact with new arrivals, where public voices exacerbate division, and where governments fail to support or consult communities in their plans for asylum accommodation.' People are more exposed to online hatred through social media, the report stated. Last year violent thugs attacked hotels housing asylum seekers as unrest spread across the country following the murder of three young girls in Southport. The report states: "The visible lack of control in the Channel, along with tensions around accommodation sites and a highly polarised political debate, has contributed to more negative views on asylum. This is exacerbated by a heated media and online debate, along with limited opportunities for people to meet and interact with new arrivals." Sir Sajid and Mr Cruddas said there is hope, however - saying the UK's local pride and commitment to fairness makes it "better placed than many other countries to weather the storm". The pair are co-chairs of the new Independent Commission on Community and Cohesion, which is looking at ways to tackle tensions and prejudice. The study found 69% of people believe their local area is a place where people from different backgrounds get on well together. Kelly Fowler, chief executive of the Belong Network, one of the organisations behind the study, said: "Good work is happening across the UK on cohesion and community strength, but it is patchy and often confined to areas of high diversity or where tensions have spilled over into unrest. "A lack of sustained funding limits its impact. It's time this issue was treated with the urgency it merits, in every part of Britain. We must not wait for more riots to happen.'
The Guardian
a day ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
UK a ‘powder keg' of social tensions a year on from summer riots, report warns
The UK is a 'powder keg' of social tensions, with a third of people rarely meeting anyone from different backgrounds, research has found. A report from the thinktank British Future and the social cohesion group Belong Network found that a year on from last summer's riots, there was a risk of unrest being reignited unless urgent action was taken to address issues of polarisation and division. The research found 31% of adults said they rarely or never had opportunities to meet people from different backgrounds, and a third say they did not frequently get a chance to meet other people at all in their local community. In a foreword to the report, the former Conservative chancellor Sajid Javid and the Labour politician Jon Cruddas said: 'The bonds that hold society together – civic participation and a shared sense of belonging – are under growing pressure. 'This is leaving our society more fragmented, fragile and less resilient to internal and external threats. At the same time, forces driving division are intensifying, political polarisation is deepening and trust in institutions is declining. Unless we address these forces, the very basis of our democracy is at risk.' They said last summer's riots after the Southport knife attack, the more recent racially motivated rioting in Northern Ireland and the findings of the grooming gangs inquiry had 'laid bare the fragility of social cohesion in the UK' and were part of pressures that have been 'building for decades'. The new report, The State of Us, will be a 'foundational input' to the new Independent Commission on Community and Cohesion, chaired by Javid and Cruddas. It was based on the views of 177 UK organisations working on social cohesion and community development, as well as 113 written submissions of evidence, a nationally representative survey and eight focus groups in towns and cities across the UK, including in areas affected by last year's riots. Anti-hate campaigners, meanwhile, say X is amplifying and monetising dangerous content and failing to enforce its own prohibitions against violent incitement. Research by the Centre for Countering Digital Hate found more than 4,300 posts in the past year that promoted violence against Muslims and immigrants, sent in reply to tweets by half a dozen high-profile account holders including Tommy Robinson, Andrew Tate and Laurence Fox. The CCDH chief executive, Imran Ahmed, said: 'One year on from the Southport riots, X remains the crucial hub for hate-filled lies and incitement of violence targeting migrants and Muslims.' If social media firms do not enforce their own rules, governments must confront the 'profit-driven amplification of violent and hateful content', he said, or the 'harm to targeted communities will grow and metastasise, with devastating consequences for British society'. The research follows a warning from MPs that current online safety laws contain 'major holes', as the Online Safety Act does not currently identify misinformation or disinformation as harms that need to be addressed by firms. The government said it did include an offence of false communications 'to target the spread of disinformation online when there is intent to cause harm'. The British Future report stated that successive governments had failed to take sustained, proactive measures to address social cohesion, and that 'a 'doom loop' of inaction, crisis and piecemeal response had failed to strengthen the foundations of communities across the country.' One reason behind the lack of social contact was money, the report found. Half of respondents said they did not always have enough money to go to places where they would meet other people. Jake Puddle, a senior researcher at British Future who led the report, said: 'We are facing a long, hot summer, with a powder keg of tensions left largely unaddressed from last year that could easily ignite once again. People are unhappy about their standard of living and the state of their local area, and don't trust politicians to sort it out. 'Public concerns about immigration and asylum can also be a flashpoint. That's only made worse when people have little contact with new arrivals, where public voices exacerbate division, and where governments fail to support or consult communities in their plans for asylum accommodation.' Kelly Fowler, chief executive of the Belong Network, said: 'Good work is happening across the UK on cohesion and community strength, but it is patchy and often confined to areas of high diversity or where tensions have spilled over into unrest. 'A lack of sustained funding limits its impact. It's time this issue was treated with the urgency it merits, in every part of Britain. We must not wait for more riots to happen.' The research found there was widespread concern about declining public services, inequality, the cost of living and the impact of social media, along with a lack of trust in politicians and institutions to help put things right. It also identified immigration and asylum as key issues raised by research participants, who were often focused on integration and pressures on housing and public services. But it found cause for optimism, with 69% of people feeling their local area was a place where people from different backgrounds got on well together, and many participants recalled moments of togetherness and community strength in adversity during the Covid-19 lockdowns.
The Guardian
22-06-2025
- General
- The Guardian
Campaigner calls for judge-led public inquiry into Windrush scandal
A founder of Windrush Day has called for a public inquiry into the scandal amid this year's 'bittersweet' celebrations of Black Britons and their contribution to national life. Patrick Vernon, who campaigned for the national day for nearly a decade before the government adopted it, said the mistreatment, detention and removal of Black Britons wrongly accused of being in the UK illegally had not been treated seriously enough. Unlike the Post Office and infected blood scandals, Windrush was the subject of an independent review, which can recommend improvements but doesn't have the power, scope and formal standing of a statutory public inquiry. Windrush Day 2025, which falls on Sunday, marks the 77th anniversary of the arrival of the Empire Windrush, the vessel that brought passengers including ex-servicemen from the West Indies to new lives in the UK. They were the first of tens of thousands of workers from former British colonies who played a key role in rebuilding Britain after the second world war. A minute's silence will be held at this year's events – after 12 months in which pioneering members of the postwar generation have died, including two passengers on the Empire Windrush. The thinktank British Future said it was 'a powerful reminder of their courage – and why it's vital they are remembered in British history today'. Vernon said the deaths of elders and the injustice to Windrush survivors meant the commemorations were 'bittersweet'. He said: 'We are witnessing the end of a living era. Significant Windrush pioneers have passed, two of whom were on the Empire Windrush – Alford Gardner, 98, and John Richards, who passed away at 96. 'We've lost Lord Herman Ouseley, who was born in the UK but was part of that generation; Sir Geoff Palmer; Nellie Brown, who died this month at 111, and Clover Samuels, the photographer. By the time we reach the 80th anniversary, how many of the original Windrush pioneers will be left? 'We need to make sure their stories are reflected in the national curriculum, encourage families to start documenting the elders and more oral history – at local regional and national level.'There needs to be a public inquiry. The last review made good recommendations, but because of the way people have been traumatised by the scandal, re-traumatised by the compensation scheme, died before they can be compensated, made homeless, or remain in the Caribbean and Africa, we need a judge-led, independent inquiry that has access to all the documents and can subpoena people. 'A lot of Windrush people are asking 'why are we treated differently? If the Post Office and infected blood scandals can have a public inquiry, why can't we?'' Sign up to The Long Wave Nesrine Malik and Jason Okundaye deliver your weekly dose of Black life and culture from around the world after newsletter promotion At a Downing Street garden party on Wednesday to celebrate Windrush Day, with a steelband and rum cocktails, Keir Starmer, the prime minister, described the Windrush scandal as a 'devastating injustice', condemning the 'humiliating treatment of people who'd done so much for our country', saying he recognised that 'the justice victims deserved had not been delivered.' The Home Office has appointed the Rev Clive Foster as Windrush commissioner to advise on improving the compensation scheme. It says it is 'determined to ensure victims are heard'. Windrush Day events across the country include: a Caribbean festival in Alexandra Park, Manchester; the Big Caribbean Lunch in Windrush Square, Brixton; Forgotten Heroes, a production in Bristol about Black second world war veterans; and former footballers Gary Bennett, Howard Gayle and Reuben Agboola meeting supporters at the Fans Museum, Sunderland.
New Statesman
25-05-2025
- Business
- New Statesman
The public are right to care about small boat crossings
(Photo byThe news that net migration effectively halved last year, falling from 860,000 in 2023 to 431,000 in 2024, will have been received with relief in Downing Street. Is this anything to celebrate? Do we actually want fewer people in the country? For a Labour party that now claims Reform is its main opponent, the answer is yes. The figures present an opportunity to follow in a long political tradition of taking credit for someone else's numbers. Rishi Sunak was able to claim that he had reduced inflation, which had in fact been achieved by the Bank of England. Keir Starmer can now claim that he has steered Britain away from a period of exceptionally high net migration, which was largely achieved by James Cleverley, who as home secretary changed the rules on international students and care workers bringing their families to the UK. The public, however, have a more balanced view. Most people are not really bothered by immigration in general, according to a poll published this month by British Future, which found that 50 per cent of people think it should be reduced overall, and 45 per cent don't see a need to reduce it. This is a reasonable summing up of the general underlying economic principle of immigration, which is that there is no country that produces much more intelligent or hard-working people than any other, and so the costs and benefits of more people arrive generally balance out. The high immigration of recent years has not caused a boom in the UK economy, nor has it crashed it. There are plenty of other reasons to desire immigration (or to want less of it) but in purely economic terms it tends to be neutral. The British Future poll also shows that the public are much more concerned about irregular migration, however, and this is rational. Among respondents who wanted immigration reduced, by far the most popular choice as a priority was the reduction of 'irregular migration, such as on small boats across the Channel'. The number of people who arrive by irregular migration is a lot smaller – nearly ten times smaller – than the number of people arriving by regular routes. But again, it is fair to say that the public is making a rational choice here, because irregular migration does not seem to be falling, and it has very different results. The number of people arriving in the UK on small boats has had a much higher growth rate than the number of people arriving by the usual routes. Before 2018 it was a very rare phenomenon, but the numbers have increased dramatically over the last five years and do not show signs of slowing. The number of small boats arrivals in the first quarter of this year is the highest for the first quarter of any year on record. The pace of this change is clearly part of the reason it concerns the public. Subscribe to The New Statesman today from only £8.99 per month Subscribe But in purely economic terms, the people who arrive via irregular migration – almost all of whom go on to claim asylum – also face significant economic challenges. Regular migrants earn similar amounts to everyone else (with differences between the most skilled workers and people in lower-skilled occupations, as with people who already live here). People who have arrived in the UK as asylum seekers have the lowest employment rate of any migrants. In 2022, less than half (48 per cent) of non-EU migrant women who had arrived in the UK by the asylum route were in work, according to Oxford University's Migration Observatory, and less than two thirds (64 per cent) of non-EU migrant men who arrived by asylum were in work. The direct cost of processing asylum claims, and housing people who are making asylum claims, is also a very significant and rising cost. It is the source of a large chunk of the 'black hole' in day-to-day spending that was uncovered by Rachel Reeves's public spending audit last July. The cost of supporting asylum seekers had risen seven times over in three years, to £6.4 billion in 2024-25. Much of this goes on the spiralling cost of asylum accommodation. According to the National Audit Office, the UK is on track to spend £15bn over ten years with just three companies that provide asylum accommodation. The UK will be spending about the same amount on this housing as it is on subsidising renewable energy through its Contracts for Difference scheme. The overall cost of processing an asylum claim in the UK was found to be £106,000, according to the Home Office's impact assessment for the Illegal Migration Bill in 2023, but this cost was also forecast to rise to £165,000 over four years. At the current rate of income tax on the current median income, this represents more than 33 years of income tax contributions. This is, of course, why the tax system exists. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, 64 per cent of the population pays out more in tax than they receive in social security in a typical year. The social safety net is underwritten by people who are healthy and in work. People seeking asylum have very good reasons why they might not be able to work, or why their capacity for work might be limited. These are people who have fled war and famine; as a result they can face a higher likelihood of physical and mental health problems than the general population, and having been displaced they face additional boundaries, such as language and social connections. The UK and other countries clearly have a responsibility to offer asylum to people who need it. But it is now happening at a scale that has a greater fiscal impact than ever before, and the public concern around irregular migration seems economically rational. [See also: Keir Starmer's 'island of strangers'] Related
