Latest news with #CBO
Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Tallying Up Biden's Immigration Damage
Most mainstream press accounts have largely ignored one obvious source of the Los Angeles riots - namely, that the Biden administration released more than enough illegal aliens into this country to populate a wholly new Los Angeles. In the aftermath of those riots, its an appropriate time to ask this question: How many illegal aliens did the Biden administration actually let into the United States? According to the Congressional Budget Office, during the four years from 2021 through 2024, a net 10.3 million people immigrated to the U.S. That figure reflects the number of (legal or illegal) immigrants who entered the U.S., minus the number who left. As a result of this huge immigration influx, the portion of the U.S. population that is foreign-born hit16.2%, per the CBO, surpassing the all-time record of 14.8% set in 1890. That mark lasted for more than 130 years, but it couldnt survive the Biden administration. In fact, the percentage of the population that is foreign-born is probably even higher than 16.2%, as that figure was for 2023 (up from 15.6% in 2022). Since a net 2.7 million people immigrated to the U.S. in 2024, according to the CBO, and about 500,000 foreign-born residents die annually (based on the CBOs estimate for 2023), the foreign-born population rose by an estimated 2.2 million in 2024 - from 55.1 million to about 57.3 million. So, the percentage of the population that is foreign-born likely hit about 16.8% last year (57.3 million out of 342 million). In comparison, in 1970, the portion of the U.S. population that was foreign-born was 4.7% - just over a quarter as high. Put otherwise, on the cusp of next years Quarter-Millennial anniversary of American independence, about one out of every six people now living in the U.S. is foreign-born, versus one out of every 21 on the eve of the Bicentennial. Thats a massive population transformation - one unlike anything our country has ever previously experienced. Most of those who were added to the foreign-born population during the Biden years were added illegally. From 2021 through 2024 - a period that coincides almost perfectly with Bidens presidential term (having 97% overlap) - the net increase in the number of illegal aliens in the U.S., based on CBO estimates, was 7.1 million people. In comparison, the entire population of Los Angeles is 3.9 million. Note that this represents the net increase. The gross increase in the number of illegal aliens under Biden was likely close to 10 million. The CBO only estimates the gross increase for a portion of Bidens term, but its partial tallies can yield a reasonable estimate for the whole four-year span. Citing numbers that it obtained from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the CBO estimates that in 2023 and 2024, the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. was 5.9 million, while the net increase was 4.3 million. Thats about four new illegal aliens added (by being released into the country, evading capture, or overstaying a legal authorization) for every one that was subtracted (by leaving or being legalized), so the ratio between the gross increase and the net increase was about four to three. Assuming that same ratio in 2021 and 2022, when the CBO estimates that the net increase in the number of illegal aliens was 2.9 million, suggests that the gross increase over that span was about 3.9 million. Adding the 5.9 million cited above reveals a gross increase of about 9.8 million illegal aliens across Bidens four years. Thats more than the population of New York City - or all of New Jersey. The CBO switched from using fiscal-year (FY) figures for 2023 to using calendar-year (CY) figures for 2024 in estimating the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens (and the releases, evasions, and overstays that compose that gross increase). But the number of encounters along the southwest border was very similar in FY2023 as in CY2023 (being 3% higher in CY2023), so this switch likely had little effect on the CBO estimates. Indeed, for the net increase in the number of illegal aliens, the CBO provides both FY2023 and CY2023 numbers, and they differ by just 0.1 million. The vast majority of these roughly 10 million illegal aliens didnt overstay their visas, per the CBO. Rather, they either evaded capture and escaped across the border or else were released by the Biden administration into the countrys interior. By far the biggest cohort was deliberately released. As U.S. District Court Judge T. Kent Wetherell wrote during a Biden-era case, U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) Chief Raul Ortiz "testified that the current surge differs from prior surges that he [has] seen over his lengthy career in that most of the aliens now being encountered at the Southwest Border are turning themselves in to USBP officers rather than trying to escape the officers." Ortiz, whom the Biden administration selected as USBP chief, said at the time that aliens are likely "turning themselves in because they think theyre going to be released." They were generally right. The CBO estimates that in 2024, Bidens DHS released about 1,530,000 aliens into the U.S. - 570,000 were encountered along the open border and released, and another 960,000 were encountered at ports of entry along the border and released - while another estimated 800,000 escaped across the border. In FY2023, Bidens DHS released about 2 million aliens into the U.S. - 1.1 million of whom crossed the open border and were released, 900,000 of whom were released at ports of entry - while another estimated 860,000 escaped across the border. Thats a total of 5.2 million evasions or releases over two years (specifically, over FY2023 and CY2024, the periods for which the CBO provides figures). During the same 24 months, 715,000 people overstayed their legal authorizations to be in the country, per CBO estimates. In other words, about seven-eighths (5.2 million out of 5.9 million) of those who joined the ranks of illegal aliens over those two years either evaded capture or were released into the U.S., rather than overstaying their visas. Applying that same seven-eighths percentage to 2021 and 2022, when the gross increase in the number of illegal aliens was about 3.9 million, suggests that about 3.4 million illegal aliens evaded capture or were released over those two years. That brings the estimated 4-year tally to about 8.6 million releases or evasions under Biden (5.2 million plus 3.4 million) - a number larger than the populations of 38 individual states. Summing all of this up, about 10 million illegal aliens were added to the U.S. population during the Biden administration. Of these, about 8.6 million came across the southern border - usually being released but sometimes evading capture - rather than overstaying their visas. After accounting for illegal aliens who either left the country or became legalized, the result was a net increase of 7.1 million illegal aliens during the Biden years, per the CBO. That net increase of 7.1 million illegal aliens equals about two-thirds of the overall net increase of 10.3 million (legal or illegal) immigrants during the Biden administration. After four years of Biden, the foreign-born population now makes up a higher percentage of the overall U.S. population than at any time on record, including during the great waves of immigration in the 19th century. But its not just how many but who came into the country that matters. During the three full fiscal years (FY2018-20) immediately preceding the Biden administration, there were a total of 9 encounters along the open border between USBP officials and non-citizens on the terrorist watch list. During the three full fiscal years (FY2022-24) that took place entirely during Bidens term, there were 370 such encounters - a 41-fold increase. Across all four years of the Biden presidency, the number of such encounters was approximately 400. One can only wonder how many potential terrorists got across Bidens porous border without being encountered. On his first day in office, President Biden issued an executive order prioritizing "equity." His DHS soon quoted that order, made clear it would apply it "[i]n the immigration and enforcement context," and thereafter refused to enforce federal immigration law requiring the detention of asylum-seekers. Such "equity"-driven actions were, in the words of Judge Wetherell, "akin to posting a flashing 'Come In, Were Open sign on the southern border." As a result of that neon invitation, 7.1 million more illegal aliens entered the U.S. or overstayed their visas than left the U.S. or became legalized while Biden was in office - more than the combined populations of Los Angeles, Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Miami. This was a deliberate result of Bidens "equity" agenda, and Americans are paying the price. Jeffrey H. Anderson is president of the American Main Street Initiative. He served as director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021.
Bloomberg
13 hours ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Wall Street Week: Critical Thinking
This week, how will the United States' involvement in the Iran-Israel war affect markets and hopes for cooperation in the Middle East? And, an interview with the Director of the Congressional Budget Office on the agency's role in predicting the fiscal impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill." Plus, will President Trump's "Gold Card" attract foreign investment to the US? Later, how Zohran Mamdani's success in the New York City mayoral primary election tells the story of the shift within the Democratic party and what it means for business in the city.
Wall Street Journal
17 hours ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
About Those ‘Millions' Losing Medicaid
Senate Republicans have to rework provisions in their big budget bill to pass muster with esoteric parliamentary rules, but tune out the Democratic wishcasting that the entire project is in jeopardy. On the other hand, here's some Capitol Hill news worth knowing: The GOP bill isn't throwing all and sundry off their health insurance, no matter the media claims to the contrary. A Congressional Budget Office letter this week adds important explanatory details to the claim that 7.8 million more Americans won't have health insurance in 2034 because of GOP Medicaid changes. Democrats broadcast this CBO estimate to frighten voters that Republicans are locking vulnerable Americans out of hospitals. But here are the facts CBO offered to the GOP House Budget Committee. Of that 7.8 million, some 4.8 million are uninsured because they don't comply with the bill's part-time work requirement. This is a torpedo in the hull for the Democratic talking point that everyone on Medicaid already works. The bill asks able-bodied, prime-age adults without children to work or volunteer roughly 20 hours a week. The serious academic evidence suggests perhaps half of that able-bodied population isn't clearing that basic work bar. A recent report from the American Enterprise Institute is sobering: 'For Medicaid recipients who do not report working, the most common activity after sleeping is watching television and playing video games. They spend 4.2 hours per day watching television and playing video games, or 125 hours during a 30-day month.' In a healthier political culture, even Democrats would agree that men who decline to work shouldn't get free health insurance to check out of life. The real 'Call of Duty' is getting a job.
CNBC
18 hours ago
- Health
- CNBC
‘Deeply harmful' Medicaid cuts still in ‘big beautiful' bill after parliamentarian ruling, expert says
While some Medicaid cuts proposed in Republicans' One Big Beautiful Bill Act were rejected by the Senate parliamentarian on Thursday, other reforms to the program that could affect individuals' access to coverage were left untouched. The Senate parliamentarian rejected proposed changes aimed at capping states' provider taxes, which are used to help fund states' Medicaid expenditures. The Senate provision reduces the safe harbor limit in expansion states and puts a moratorium on any new provider taxes in all states. Yet other parts of the proposed Medicaid cuts — including new work requirements of 80 hours per month and more frequent redetermination evaluations every six months — made it past the Senate referee. "The Senate bill, like the House bill, includes deep cuts to Medicaid and other health programs, and is deeply harmful, whether or not these provisions stay in or out," said Allison Orris, senior fellow and director of Medicaid policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. More from Personal Finance:'Big beautiful' bill proposes new federal Medicaid work requirementsHealth-care cuts in GOP budget bill prompt medical debt: ReportSenate version of 'big beautiful' bill includes $6,000 senior bonus The House version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would reduce federal Medicaid spending by almost $800 billion, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. Republican lawmakers are pushing to pass the bill through budget reconciliation, an expedited legislative process that requires a simple majority vote. This week, the Senate parliamentarian evaluated whether the proposal complies with the Byrd rule, which prohibits the inclusion of changes that are extraneous to the budget. While the Senate parliamentarian's decisions mean certain provisions cannot stay in as written, that leaves room for lawmakers to change the language of the proposal or make other adjustments. Medicaid provider taxes offer a way for states to raise money for the non-federal share of funding toward the program, Orris said. If states are limited on how they can do that, the federal government will spend less on Medicaid, she said. The CBO scores a reduction in provider taxes as a Medicaid cut, Orris said, because it is assumed states will not be able to replace that revenue. In response to restrictions on provider taxes, states could make decisions that would result in people losing Medicaid coverage, Orris said. Based on the House version of the bill, the CBO has estimated around 400,000 people could lose Medicaid coverage based on the proposed changes to provider taxes, she said. Some Republican lawmakers have expressed concerns that the changes to the provider taxes would hurt rural hospitals financially and prompt them to reduce services or close. In addition to Medicaid provider taxes, the Senate parliamentarian also rejected proposals to make certain immigrants who are not citizens ineligible for Medicaid coverage. About 7.8 million people may lose Medicaid coverage based on both the House version of the "big beautiful" bill and Affordable Care Act changes including expiring subsidies and rule changes proposed by the Trump administration, according to Washington, D.C.-based think tank Third Way. In a recent report, Third Way found the budget bill may increase medical debt by $50 billion — a 15% rise over today's $340 billion in unpaid debts.
Yahoo
19 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
MAGA Senator Mocked for Embarrassing Budget Gaffe
MAGA Senator Tim Scott is being ridiculed after attacking the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for making 'wrong' predictions decades before it even existed. Scott, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee, posted a video on X attacking the CBO, which recently estimated that 11 million people could lose health care and $2.4 trillion will be added to the deficit under President Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill,' which is currently under consideration in the Senate. Scott, who represents South Carolina, claimed the CBO had a long track record of bad predictions. 'In 2017, the CBO said the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would increase the deficit and the debt by trillions of dollars. What happened? They were wrong,' Scott said. 'Now this is not surprising. They were wrong on the Mellon tax cuts in the 1930s. They were wrong on the Kennedy tax cuts in the 1960s. They were wrong on the Reagan tax cuts in the 1980s. When have they been right? I don't know either.' Scott concludes his message with 'CBO: Wrong, then wrong now.' One major problem: The CBO didn't even exist until 1974, and the nonpartisan agency wasn't operational until 1975. Scott has since been roundly mocked online. Rep. Don Beyer of Virginia responded on X: 'Republicans are attacking Congress' nonpartisan scorekeeper, which found their Big Billionaire Boondoggle rips health care from 16 million people and adds $3 trillion to the deficit. Senator Tim Scott says CBO was 'wrong' in the 1930s and the 1960s … CBO was created in 1974.' 'CBO did not exist until created by an act of Congress in 1974. Why does Tim Scott embarrass himself like this?' former CNN White House correspondent John Harwood wrote. 'CBO was right in 2017, they actually overestimated revenue collection in the 1980s, and they didn't exist in the 1930s or 1960s,' added Marc Goldwein, senior vice president at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 'Other than that, no notes.' Another X user piled on: 'With Tim Scott, the question has always been whether he knows he's lying or if he just doesn't care.' Scott's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Daily Beast. Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act is at risk of being defeated in the upper chamber as some GOP Senators have expressed their opposition to its proposals, including drastic cuts to Medicaid.
