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Fibre2Fashion
17-07-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Global cotton prices mixed in July; China & India show modest gains
Global cotton markets largely moved sideways over the past month, with modest gains observed in China and India, while prices in other key markets, including Pakistan and international benchmarks, remained flat, as per Cotton Incorporated. The December NY/ICE cotton futures contract, the most actively traded, hovered near the upper end of its recent range between 67 and 70 cents per pound but failed to maintain upward momentum. The contract is currently priced close to 67 cents per pound, reflecting the persistent sideways pattern in global trading. The Cotlook A Index, another key international benchmark, fluctuated within a narrow band of 77 to 80 cents per pound, settling near 78 cents per pound at latest count, Cotton Incorporated said in its Monthly Economic Letter - Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook, July 2025. Global cotton prices were mostly flat in July, with slight gains in China and India. The NY/ICE December contract remained rangebound near 67 cents/lb. China's CC Index rose to 97 cents/lb, continuing an uptrend since May. Indian Shankar-6 prices climbed to 84 cents/lb. In contrast, Pakistan's market held steady at 70 cents/lb. Currencies in all three countries remained stable. In China, the Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) continued its gradual rise. Internationally, it increased from 92 to 97 cents per pound over the past month, extending a steady upward trend that began in May, when prices bottomed around 88 cents per pound. In domestic terms, Chinese prices climbed from 14,600 to 15,100 RMB/ton, with the renminbi remaining stable near 7.17 RMB/USD. India's Shankar-6 spot prices also edged higher; surpassing highs set in May. Prices rose from 80 cents per pound (or ₹54,000 per candy) to approximately 84 cents per pound (or ₹56,000 per candy) over the past month. The Indian rupee held steady at around ₹86 per USD. In contrast, Pakistan's cotton market remained flat. Spot prices were stable at around 70 cents per pound, with domestic values hovering near 16,500 PKR per maund. The Pakistani rupee also remained stable, trading near 283 PKR per USD. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
Yahoo
16-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Monthly Cotton Economic Newsletter: July 2025
Recent Price Movement Chinese and Indian prices moved slightly higher while other markets were flat over the past month. Although the most actively traded December NY/ICE contract floated towards the higher end of its relatively tight range between 67 and 70 cents/lb, it was not able to sustain the move, and the pattern in price movement remains sideways. The latest value is near 67 cents/lb. The A Index also moved within a tight range, drifting between 77 and 80 cents/lb. The current value is near 78 cents/lb. The Chinese Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) increased slightly in international terms, rising from 92 to 97 cents/lb over the past month. This extended the slow upward trend that has been in place since May, when values set lows around 88 cents/lb. In domestic terms, prices rose from 14,600 to 15,100 RMB/ton over the past month. In May, domestic prices set lows around 14,100 RMB/ton. The RMB was stable near 7.17 RMB/USD over the past month. Indian spot prices (Shankar-6 quality) shifted slightly higher, breaking above recent highs set in May (82 cents/lb or 54,700 INR/candy). Current levels are near 84 cents/lb or 56,000 INR/candy; about one month ago values were closer to 80 cents/lb or 54,000 INR/candy. The INR was stable near 86 INR/USD. Pakistani spot prices held around 70 cents/lb over the past month. In domestic terms, values traded around 16,500 PKR/maund. The PKR was steady around 283 PKR/USD. Supply, Demand & Trade Updates to USDA forecasts for 2025/26 included a +1.4 million bale addition to global production (to 118.4 million) and a +365,000 bale addition to global mill use (to 118.1 million). Revisions to previous crop years lowered 2025/26 beginning stocks -510,000 bales (to 76.8 million). The net effect on the forecast for 2025/26 ending stocks was a +520,000 bale increase (to 77.3 million). This volume represents the largest amount of stocks outside of 2019/20 (Covid) and the period when China was holding massive inventory in its reserve system (2012/13-2015/16). More from Sourcing Journal Why Natural Fibers are a Fashionable Option During Plastic Free July Survey: Global Consumers Turn to Jeans for Comfort Cotton and the Supply Chain: Challenges & Opportunities in 2025 At the country level, the largest changes to 2025/26 production figures were for China (+1.0 million bales, to 31.0 million), the U.S. (+600,000 bales to 14.6 million), Pakistan (-200,000 bales to 5.0 million), and Mexico (+100,000 bales to 800,000). For mill use, the largest revisions were for Pakistan (+300,000 bales to 10.9 million) and Mexico (+100,000 bales to 1.4 million). The global trade estimate for 2025/26 was mostly unchanged (-135,000 bales to 44.7 million). In terms of imports, the largest changes for 2025/26 were for Pakistan (+600,000 bales to 5.9 million) and China (-700,000 bales to 5.8 million). 2024/25 import estimates were lifted for Pakistan (+300,000 bales to 6.1 million) and lowered for China (-300,000 bales to 5.2 million). In terms of exports, there were no revisions of 100,000 bales or more. A notable change to 2024/25 export numbers was for the U.S. (+300,000 bales to 11.8 million). Price Outlook Another series of significant developments hit markets over the past month. Chief among these was the passing of the July 9 deadline the U.S. administration had set for negotiations with most trade partners (the deadline for negotiations with China is set for Aug. 12). Framework tariff increases were released for a range of U.S. trade partners. Many of the increases outlined were close to the levels proposed on April 2. Although tariff increases were initially threatened to go into effect on the July 9 deadline, the application of the current round of duty increases was postponed until Aug. 1. In the meantime, talks are scheduled to continue and tariff rates can be expected to continue to evolve. Despite the string of influential announcements in the policy environment, there was little reaction in the cotton market, with the December NY/ICE contract holding within its 3 cent/lb range between 67 and 70 cents/lb. There were also cotton market-specific developments over the past month. At the end of June, the USDA released an update to its estimate for U.S. planted acreage. Given prices for cotton relative to other crops, and weather-related challenges that may have prevented planting in eastern regions, there were widespread expectations that the June number would have been meaningfully lower than existing figures. However, the June estimate was adjusted slightly higher (from 9.9 to 10.1 million acres). In recent years, there have been important revisions to acreage estimates after June (for example, -500,000 acres from July to August in 2024, -860,000 acres from August to September in 2023, and +1.3 million acres from August to September in 2022), so some uncertainty remains about U.S. acres planted. There has been beneficial moisture in the southwest growing region, and the possibility of a better crop in West Texas contributed to the increase to the forecast for the U.S. These cotton-specific developments also had little perceivable effect on cotton prices, with NY/ICE December futures generally holding within its tight 3 cent range since May. Given the absence of price movement after all these events, there are questions about what could shake cotton prices out of their recent range. There are downside pressures from a slowing global economy and the potential for further increases in global exportable supply looking for buyers. Several of the countries that have the highest threatened tariff rates are also some of largest suppliers of apparel and textiles to the U.S. If tariff rates are increased as much as has been threatened, there could be a chilling effect on downstream orders in the supply chain. On the supply side, if moisture levels can hold up in West Texas during the critical period from late July and through August, there could be an additional couple million bales of exportable production. A factor that could inhibit price decreases could be the near record net short position held already by speculators in the futures market (Commodity Futures and Trading Commission or CFTC data). Since speculators have been so negative on the market, their ability to go even shorter may be limited. Relatedly, a potential factor that could support price gains could be a shift in speculator holdings away from their strong short position. However, speculators likely would need a reason to change their position. Policy uncertainty and projections of slower economic growth keep them from changing their position. Jon Devine, senior economist at Cotton Incorporated, keeps key stakeholders in the textile and investment communities informed via timely market analyses of commodity economics and factors influencing their stability. He generates industry analyses of the various links on the cotton supply chain, contributing to the division's examinations and reports on consumer and retail trends relevant to cotton textile and apparel sectors. For more economic information about the cotton market, visit Cotton Incorporated's Lifestyle Monitor. 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Fibre2Fashion
14-05-2025
- Business
- Fibre2Fashion
Global cotton prices remain stable amid currency movements: Cotton Inc
Global cotton benchmarks remained largely stable over the past month, with limited price fluctuations across key markets, as per Cotton Incorporated. The nearby July NY/ICE futures contract traded between 65 and 70 cents per lb, while the December contract ranged between 67 and 71 cents per lb. The A Index held firm between 77 and 81 cents per lb. Global cotton prices remained largely stable over the past month. NY/ICE July futures traded between 65â€'70 cents per lb, while the December contract stayed within 67â€'71 cents. The A Index held between 77â€'81 cents per lb. China's CC Index stayed near 89 cents per lb amid RMB appreciation. Indian spot prices rose slightly to 82 cents per lb, while Pakistani prices remained steady at 72 cents per lb. China's CC Index (3128B) remained steady near 89 cents per lb, with domestic prices close to 14,200 RMB per ton as the RMB appreciated from 7.34 to 7.24 RMB per USD, Cotton Incorporated said in its Monthly Economic Letter - Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook - May 2025. Indian spot prices (Shankar-6) showed a slight upward trend, rising from just below 80 to 82 cents per lb. In local terms, prices increased from ₹53,900 to 54,600 per candy, with the INR stable around 85 per USD. Pakistani spot prices hovered near 72 cents per lb, holding steady at around 16,700 PKR per maund as the PKR traded consistently at 280 per USD. Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KD)
