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NDTV
04-07-2025
- Climate
- NDTV
Explained: Why India's Monsoons Are Now Deadlier And More Unpredictable
India's monsoon is undergoing notable shifts driven by anthropogenic climate change. The monsoon patterns are influenced by various climatic factors. These shifts have profound implications for agriculture, water resources, and disaster preparedness across the country. According to government reports, over the 1901-2018 period, the Indian surface air temperature rose by approximately 0.7 degrees Celsius, while tropical Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures climbed by around 1 degree Celsius between 1951 and 2015. As warmer air can hold more moisture-about 7 % per 1 degree Celsius, this results in more intense rainfall events. Regional rainfall trends now reveal a paradox: May rainfall in North India has surged by nearly 50% since 1950, prolonging humid pre-monsoon conditions, but the core monsoon season (June-September) is weakening, producing less overall rain with higher temperatures. According to the India Meteorological Department, studies show that seasonal rainfall has declined approximately 6% in the last 50 years, with central India experiencing fewer moderate rain days and more frequent extreme events, up to 75% more heavy-rain days (>150 mm/day). On a detailed level, 55% of India's sub-districts (tehsils) saw monsoon rainfall increase over the past decade, driven chiefly by short-duration heavy downpours, while 11 % experienced declines-especially in agriculture-dependent zones like the Indo-Gangetic plain. Furthermore, roughly 48 % of tehsils recorded higher rainfall in October, hinting at a delayed monsoon withdrawal, according to a Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) report. How has the monsoon pattern changed in India? According to CEEW, the natural variability of Indian monsoons is further influenced by climate change. Traditionally monsoon-rich regions like Northeast India, the Indo-Gangetic plains, and the Indian Himalayan region experienced a decrease in the past decade. Conversely, traditionally drier areas, including Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, witnessed an increase in southwest monsoon rainfall. The northeast monsoon intensified in Tamil Nadu, and states such as Odisha and West Bengal on the east coast, as well as Maharashtra and Goa on the west coast, observed heightened October to December rainfall. What's Driving India's Changing Monsoon Patterns? India's monsoon is becoming increasingly unpredictable due to several key factors. Rainfall is now more erratic, with intense downpours followed by dry spells, and the monsoon's onset is often delayed, impacting agriculture. Some regions face drought-like conditions while others receive excessive rain. Climate change plays a major role; Indian Ocean warming, global atmospheric shifts, and urbanisation are altering monsoon behaviour. To adapt, India needs better forecasting systems, sustainable land use practices like afforestation, and efficient water storage and distribution infrastructure to manage rainfall variability and ensure long-term resilience.
Hindustan Times
26-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Changing the colour of India's economy
The world is experiencing massive disruptions across geopolitical, technological, economic, and climate fronts. In the midst of it all, there is an opportunity to future-proof India's economy and ensure lives and livelihoods are protected while our developmental goals are met, because the climate crisis will only accelerate these uncertainties. As global demand for green products and services accelerates, India has a chance to shape an inclusive growth story that benefits every layer of India's economy — farmers, small and medium enterprises, startups, and large industries alike. Investing now in emerging clean technologies is not just a climate imperative but a strategic economic move — one that could future-proof our economy and position India as a global leader in the green transition. China began investing in clean technologies more than two decades ago — ranging from solar panels and batteries to electric vehicles — and today dominates many of these global markets. India, too, has taken massive strides in this direction over the last decade. It must now double down on the next frontiers of clean tech areas, not only to meet our own rising demand, but also to become competitive and capture a share of the booming international green economy. To be sure, the green economy is not about renewable energy alone. It is about seizing India's comparative advantage in resource efficiency, circular production, bioeconomy and climate-resilience to unlock new jobs, drive technological innovation, and redefine India's global competitiveness in emerging value chains. The numbers speak plainly. India's bioeconomy — using biological resources beyond food needs for materials, energy and beyond — alone has expanded from $10 billion in 2014 to $166 billion in 2024. The ministry of science and technology projects the sector will reach $300 billion by 2030. Similarly, the circular economy — from wastewater reuse to recycling of battery, plastics, and construction waste — could add millions of jobs to the Indian economy. Consider Odisha, for example, a resource-rich state known for its mines and coal. A recent study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) reveals that 28 green value chains — from seaweed cultivation in Chilika Lake to green hydrogen production for exports to e-waste recycling in urban centres like Bhubaneswar and Cuttack — could collectively add 23% to the state's GDP while creating one million jobs and attracting over $42 billion in investments by 2030. At Invest Odisha 2025 alone, over 35% of the ₹13 lakh crore commitments targeted green sectors — marking the first time non-mineral sectors claimed the majority share. If this is the potential of one state alone, imagine India's green economy at scale. Our leapfrog advantage lies in unique strengths: 67 million MSMEs contributing 30% of GDP, 7,500-km of coastline for blue economy enterprises, and a thriving startup ecosystem already delivering green solutions. The early gains from this structural shift are visible on the ground as well. Take Guwahati-based Bamboostan, a startup transforming 80,000 MT of local bamboo annually into construction material while raising farmer incomes. Or Eco Recycling Limited's Maharashtra facility, which annually recycles 25,000 tonnes of e-waste with its cutting-edge technology. These are among the thousands of entrepreneurs and businesses that point to a silently emerging revolution, where micro-transformations aggregate into macro-opportunities. Like the IT revolution of the 1990s, the green economy can propel India into a new era of industrial leadership. India needs a whole-of-economy push, bringing together government, industry, investors, and communities to act in concert. First, the Union government should spearhead a green economy action plan to provide policy certainty and market direction. This requires four decisive interventions: time-bound fiscal incentives (including tax holidays) to boost adoption of cleaner technologies, single-window clearances for green industries, mandatory green procurement across public infrastructure, and strategic reorientation of existing schemes towards green priorities. Specifying engineered bamboo in furniture contracts, recycled plastics in road projects, bio-based construction materials, and energy-efficient appliances in all government facilities would create immediate market signals. Niti Aayog, with its experience steering cross-ministerial missions like the aspirational districts programme, is best placed to coordinate this nationally, supported by a digital data platform for tracking investments, skills, and performance. Second, Indian industry must be at the heart of the green economy. While micro-enterprises remain vital for inclusive industrialisation, large industries need to move beyond adopting green practices within plants to actively shaping markets and supply chains through ownership and investment. With support, MSME clusters can leapfrog into clean production systems, like textile units adopting solar-powered effluent treatment, food processors shifting to biodegradable packaging or solar cold chains. Meanwhile, our startups must commercialise the underlying technologies. The entire value chain must transform to enable this transition through shared green infrastructure like zero-waste hubs, tech transfer programmes helping suppliers decarbonise, and collaborative research and development (R&D) hubs co-funded by anchor firms. Third, financial institutions and philanthropies must unlock green capital across risk spectrums. Many high-impact green sectors — from EV manufacturing to plastic waste recycling to sustainable tourism — need catalytic capital to scale. Philanthropy can provide the risk-taking first rupee/dollar, while public finance can share some of the risks faced by private investment. Civil society organisations can bridge this ecosystem by preparing portfolios of community-linked projects for financing. The goal is not just capital allocation but building pipelines that convert India's green transition needs into investable opportunities. Fourth, India's research and innovation systems must form the bedrock of this transformation. At 0.64% of GDP, India's R&D spending lags behind China's 2.4%, a critical gap when building self-reliance in green tech. India's private sector, in particular, must look over the horizon and boost its R&D spending to institutionalise innovation as an economic multiplier. The government can incentivise private sector innovation spending in critical areas through matching grants. Academia-industry partnerships and tech transfer can accelerate this: IIT Madras' incubation ecosystem turned an ₹29 lakh investment into a ₹50 crore green mobility breakthrough through Ather Energy, while IISc Bangalore's hydrogen generation tech, co-developed with Indian Oil R&D, promises to decarbonise refining. The G20's green development pact, under India's presidency, recognised this new economic opportunity. To deliver on this ambition at home, India must translate that vision into domestic resolve. A green economy is not about sacrificing profit at the altar of sustainability; it is about rewriting the rules of economic value creation. When future historians trace the inflexion points of 21st-century development, let them record this truth: India redefined green transition and led a full-fledged green industrial revolution for people, prosperity, and planet. Amitabh Kant is former G20 Sherpa of India and former CEO of Niti Aayog, and Arunabha Ghosh is CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). The views expressed are personal.
Economic Times
24-06-2025
- Climate
- Economic Times
Storms may soothe, but the heat has a longer forecast
Monsoon is expected to reach Delhi and adjoining areas soon, with Monday's 'teaser' rains'. It was its earliest arrival since 2013, when it reached Delhi on June 16. This year, monsoon reached Kerala on June 1, its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it hit the southern coast on May 23. Relief may have come with rains. But according to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Asia is warming at twice the global average. WMO's 'State of the Climate in Asia 2024', released on Monday, spells it out starkly: 2024 was the warmest or second-warmest year on record (depending on the dataset), marked by widespread and prolonged heatwaves. Warming trend during 1991-2024 was nearly double that of 1961-90. Parts of India experienced extreme heatwaves, contributing to more than 450 the rising toll, efforts to address the crisis remain mired in inertia. Heat continues to be underestimated, under-acknowledged and structurally ignored. Familiarity breeds complacency 'We haven't fully internalised temperature variations we are witnessing now,' explains Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW (Council on Energy, Environment and Water). 'Heat is still not thought of as a disaster - historically, it hasn't been. So, the response advisories tend to be minimal, almost casual, like 'stay at home'.'But temperature alone doesn't kill. Two other key dimensions are often overlooked: Vulnerability of different socioeconomic groups, and their ability to adapt to sustained high temperatures. Take two people in the same city: one works in construction, the other in an AC office. Both feel the heat. But their sensitivity to it is different - one works outdoors for hours, the other remains largely insulated. Then there's adaptive capacity. A construction worker in a prosperous city might have access to public health centres, or pharmacies offering ORS. But in a poorer city, even that basic safety net may be missing. The ability to cope is not just personal - it is infrastructural, and deeply fault lines become even more exaggerated as we move towards underrepresented and underserved sections: women, PWDs and transgender individuals. Personal advisories To save lives, data must be local - and personal. 'Instead of vague advisories, we must incorporate heat-specific triggers into our early warning systems [EWS], based on local climate patterns,' says good news: researchers at IIT Roorkee have designed a prototype EWS that forecasts individual health risks from heat stress over a 5-day window. It combines weather data with personal health, exposure and occupational factors, assigning a risk score and a colour-coded result - green for low, yellow for medium, and red for high risk - tailored to individuals. This is a significant departure from the current one-size-fits-all heatwave alerts issued for entire personalised tools can empower people to anticipate risks and plan daily activities, or adjust habits based on specific vulnerabilities. But awareness and early warnings alone won't fix what's broken. India must embed climate resilience into urban planning, building codes and public health systems - where the real gaps lie. Infra focus In early June, as heatwaves gripped Delhi-NCR, many seeking relief in public spaces found little respite. Toilets were broken or abandoned, water points were scarce and cooling zones were nonexistent. For the elderly, children, pregnant women and persons with disabilities, the risks a stark reminder that no matter how many Heat Action Plans (HAPs) are announced, they're being layered over a crumbling foundation. Basic urban infrastructure is either missing or dysfunctional - leaving people exposed, unsupported and increasingly vulnerable as temperatures rise and extreme weather becomes the cities need to cool down. Planners must integrate green spaces, shaded walkways and water bodies - steps that build not just climate resilience but also more liveable cities. And this isn't just about comfort or aesthetics. Liveable cities attract more talent and build stronger economies. City-level HAPs must be urgently revamped to reflect local vulnerabilities, emergency response must be paired with long-term resilience, and secure funding should be obtained for sustainable 2025 report, 'How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level Heat Risk', finds that 57% of districts - home to 75% of Indians - now face high heat risk. HAPs must also address night-time heat and humidity stress using granular, real-time data. With heatwaves now recognised under State Disaster Mitigation Fund (SDMF), states have the means to mobilise targeted, risk-based science is here. Funds are now available. What we're missing is urgency. And the humility to plan for realities people already live through. Elevate your knowledge and leadership skills at a cost cheaper than your daily tea. Oil, war, and the Hormuz gambit: Why the 2025 standoff won't mirror the 2022 shock! The bike taxi dreams of Rapido, Uber, and Ola just got a jolt. 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New Indian Express
21-06-2025
- Business
- New Indian Express
Cool way to cut power consumption
A 2020 CEEW survey found that nearly 60% of Indian AC users set their units at 23°C or lower. 'Even a modest shift from 18°C to 20°C can cut AC energy use by 12%. If just 30% of new buyers (~5 million) adopt this change, it could save 1.4 billion units of electricity annually — enough to power 10–14 million homes monthly,' Agrawal added. If India improves its ACs efficiency substantially, energy consumption will be reduced to nearly 120 terawatt-hours by 2035, which is comparable to the energy output of over 60 gigawatts (GW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, say market estimates. The moot question though is whether the industry and consumers are ready for it. Different studies show that improving the efficiency of ACs can be a win-win proposition for both the industry and consumers. The IECC study challenges the notion that increasing the efficiency of ACs will make them less affordable. Global data, as well as India's data of AC consumers, reveals that the price of higher efficient ACs consistently decreases while the efficiency of ACs doubles in the same period. Experts explain that the lower cost of ACs with higher efficiency is due to the economy of scale, enhanced manufacturing process, and competitive market dynamics. Data from Japan shows that between 1990 and 2015, the price of ACs reduced by 80%, while in the same period, ACs efficiency doubled, from 2.5 to 6.1 on the energy efficiency index. In Korea, too, energy efficiency increased to more than double, while the price declined by 60% after inflation was adjusted. Similarly, between 2004 and 2023, room AC efficiency improved by 60% in India, and prices were nearly halved. However, India's AC efficiency has not increased compared to Japan and Korea, which bolsters the idea that higher efficiency does not lead to increased costs. Moreover, the price of lesser efficient ACs compared to the efficient ACs is not much different. The IECC analysis shows that the average market price of 5-star ACs (highly efficient) is almost equal to that of 4-star and a little above that of 3-star. The median retail price of 3-star ACs last year was `36,990, whereas the 4-star median price was `43,490, followed by the 5-star price of `43,990. A market analysis shows that investing in 5-star ACs (1 ton) yields an upfront median incremental price of `5,970 compared to 1-star ACs. However, the higher-efficiency AC consumes 377 kWh less per year, resulting in annual electricity bill savings of `3,360. This implies a payback period of under two years.
Mint
19-06-2025
- Automotive
- Mint
EV vs Petrol: Electric vehicles prove cheaper to run in India, says CEEW study
As India's vehicle population is set to more than double by 2050, a new study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) has highlighted a significant shift in cost competitiveness between electric and petrol vehicles. The research shows that electric vehicles (EVs), particularly in the two- and three-wheeler categories, now offer a markedly lower total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to their petrol counterparts, a trend that could redefine the future of personal and commercial mobility in the country. According to the CEEW, electric two-wheelers are already the most economical option on Indian roads, costing just ₹ 1.48 per kilometre to operate, compared to ₹ 2.46 for petrol-powered versions. The advantage is even starker in the three-wheeler segment, where EVs cost ₹ 1.28/km versus ₹ 3.21/km for petrol-driven models. Commercial taxis, where operating costs heavily influence purchasing decisions, also stand to benefit significantly from the EV transition. 'Electric two- and three-wheelers are not just greener, but cheaper to run than petrol models. These segments are ripe for rapid electrification,' said Hemant Mallya, Fellow at CEEW. 'Cost advantages, especially in daily-use scenarios, will likely drive adoption faster in states that offer supportive policies.' The report attributes the shift in TCO dynamics to a combination of declining battery costs, supportive state-level incentives, and improved charging infrastructure. However, the cost competitiveness for private electric cars remains mixed across regions. Variations in state subsidies, electricity tariffs, and initial vehicle prices continue to affect affordability, the study notes. Despite the strong performance of EVs in the lighter vehicle categories, the report finds that electrification in heavier commercial vehicles, such as trucks and buses, lags behind. In 2024, electric medium and heavy goods vehicles remain costlier than those running on diesel, CNG, or LNG. With LNG expected to remain the cheapest fuel option for heavy transport until at least 2040, the study stresses the need for targeted research, infrastructure investments, and cost-reduction strategies to enable a transition in this segment. Without significant progress in electrification and green fuel adoption, diesel is projected to remain dominant in India's road transport sector until the late 2040s. Under a business-as-usual scenario, diesel demand would peak only by 2047, while petrol demand could peak earlier around 2032. Dr Himani Jain, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW, emphasised the broader implications: 'India's transport sector is at the crossroads of an energy, emissions, and urban planning challenge. Rising ownership and usage patterns will only increase congestion and environmental impact if we don't act now. We must prioritise clean, efficient, and cost-effective transport systems.' To manage the evolving cost landscape, the study recommends enhancing access to EV financing, particularly through public banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). Innovative battery rental or EMI-based models could make upfront costs more manageable. In parallel, better data on vehicle ownership at the district level—especially via the VAHAN portal—will help target incentives and infrastructure planning more effectively. As India steers towards a low-carbon future, aligning fuel economics with sustainability goals will be key. The CEEW's Transportation Fuel Forecasting Model (TFFM), which enables granular projections of vehicle stock and energy demand at the district level, is expected to be a critical tool for policymakers, automakers, and energy providers alike.
