Latest news with #CERA
Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Russia oil squeeze: Trump's 100% tariff threat - should India panic?
Penalty tariffs by the US would mean that Russia's crude oil imports would no longer be a lucrative option for India. US President Donald Trump's fresh threat of 100% secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia poses an important question - will India's crude oil supply be hit? At present, India and China are the main purchasers of Russian oil. India relies heavily on imported crude oil, with over 85% of its requirements being met through imports. This crude oil is processed in refineries to produce various fuels, including petrol and diesel. "We're very, very unhappy with (Russia). And we're going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don't have a (Ukraine peace) deal in 50 days. Tariffs at about 100%, you'd call them secondary tariffs," Trump said earlier this week. The secondary tariffs, if the threat materializes, would impose a 100% tariff on products entering the US from countries conducting trade with Russia. Also Read | India-US trade deal: India receptive to imports of GM farm products used in animal feed? Mini deal in works as Trump deadline nears In 2019, India stopped its oil imports from Iran when Trump, whilst serving his first presidential term, warned of implementing secondary sanctions against Iranian oil purchasers. Despite similar threats, China persists with its Iranian oil purchases without facing consequences. But what does this sanction threat by Trump, and even NATO, mean for India? And should India be worried? India's Crude Oil Imports From Russia: Top Facts Whilst the Middle East historically served as the primary source for India's crude oil imports, Russia has emerged as the dominant supplier since 2022. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries largely boycotted Russian crude oil. Subsequently, Russia offered substantial discounts on its crude to secure new buyers. Indian refineries took advantage of these discounted rates, transforming Russia from a minor supplier into India's principal source of crude oil, surpassing the traditional West Asian suppliers. Who bought Russia's fossil fuels in June 2025? According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CERA) analysis, since the ban on Russian oil, China has bought 47% of Russia's crude exports, followed by India (38%), the EU (6%), and Turkiye (6%). In FY22, Russia made up just 2.1% of India's oil imports. Come financial year 2024-25, Russia's share in India's value of oil imports is a staggering 35.1% In FY22, India bought $2,256 million of Russian oil - three years later that number stands at a whopping $50,285 million! According to vessel tracking data from global commodity market analytics firm Kpler, India's Russian crude imports reached 2.08 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking the highest level since July 2024. India's worldwide crude oil imports declined 6% during June, yet Russian shipments increased by 8% compared to the previous month. According to CERA, three Indian refineries, which also supply processed petroleum products to G7+ nations, accounted for over 50% of these Russian oil purchases. What Will Be The Impact Of Sanctions on India? Penalty tariffs by the US would mean that Russia's crude oil imports would no longer be a lucrative option for India. The increased cost of exporting goods to the US would far outweigh any benefits of discounts offered by Russia for crude oil purchase. In fact, Russia's discounts on crude oil sold to India have also come down gradually. According to Western media reports, the secondary tariffs would have broader implications for India, affecting all merchandise exports from the purchasing country, rather than the current system where penalties are limited to entities conducting business with sanctioned Russian organisations. Discount of Urals oil prices to Brent over time Indian refiners may need to return to their conventional West Asian suppliers and explore new sources like Brazil to compensate for the reduction in Russian oil imports. However, these alternative supplies would be costlier, with prices approximately $4-5 per barrel higher, according to a TOI report. The government had sought assistance from two major West Asian nations to secure oil supplies through alternative routes when concerns arose about potential disruptions in shipping via the Strait of Hormuz during the recent Israel-Iran conflict. According to industry experts, Indian refiners are expected to maximise their purchases of discounted Russian crude before the deadline, similar to their strategy during the Israel-Iran tensions, whilst simultaneously securing alternative supply arrangements. Should India Be Worried? Simply put, No! Gaurav Moda, Partner and Leader, Energy Sector, EY-Parthenon India is of the view that India's three-pronged strategy in the last few years will work in its favour, keeping it relatively insulated from any major oil supply shock. Firstly, we have diversified our crude oil procurement markets to beyond OPEC ++. This has helped bring certainty in oil supply for India, Gaurav Modi tells TOI. 'Secondly, over the last few years India has been building strategic oil reserves both domestically and leasing oil reserves. Thirdly, OMCs have also been storing anywhere between 15 days to 3 months of oil reserves,' he said. 'These three steps make India relatively less vulnerable to any oil supply issues caused by geopolitical tensions,' he explained. India is already signalling growing affinity to crude oil imports from various countries. India's crude oil imports from the United States increased by more than 50% during the first half of 2025 in comparison to H1 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. Additionally, imports from Brazil saw an 80% rise during the same timeframe. This indicates Indian refiners' increasing preference for non-OPEC crude sources as the country aims to diversify its supply channels. Also Read | Trump, NATO tariff threat on Russia's crude oil: India not worried about sanctions, says Hardeep Puri; 'if something happens, we'll…' The renewed diplomatic engagement with the current US administration has also sparked a fresh interest amongst Indian buyers for American crude oil supplies. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has also dismissed fears of likely impact on India if Russian oil supply is choked through secondary tariffs. 'I'm not worried at all. If something happens, we'll deal with it," Puri has said. "India has diversified the sources of supply and we have gone, I think, from about 27 countries that we used to buy from to about 40 countries now," he said. Will The US Threat Come Through? Interestingly, Indian oil industry officials interpret US President Donald Trump's warning of imposing 100% secondary tariffs on Russia as a strategic negotiation move, believing it would have minimal actual impact on worldwide oil trade or India's Russian crude purchases. Oil refinery executives are of the view that the tariffs would harm the US as well. If enacted, it would potentially block Russia from participating in the global oil trade, causing oil prices to surge beyond $120 per barrel. This would contradict Trump's objectives of maintaining low energy costs and could trigger worldwide inflation, they say. Also Read | Trump tariff war: Deal or no deal - why it won't matter much for India Oil industry leaders told ET that imposing 100% tariffs on India and China for their Russian oil purchases could backfire, as elevated import costs from these countries would in turn affect US consumers in terms of higher prices and create political challenges for Trump's administration. "This whole tariff game is about Trump trying to strike deals with countries, including Russia, not about disrupting energy trade or dealing with high inflation at home," an executive told ET. Russia maintains significant oil export volumes, shipping approximately 4.5-5.0 million barrels per day (mbd) of crude oil, constituting about 5% of global consumption. Additionally, the country supplies roughly 2 mbd of processed petroleum products to international markets. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Scoop
25-06-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Blooming Heck: Hutt City Council Named Global Finalist In Mayors Challenge
Hutt City Council is celebrating global recognition after being selected as one of just 50 finalists in the prestigious Bloomberg Philanthropies Mayors Challenge. The Challenge, which attracted 630 applications, is the world's biggest ideas competition for cities. It rewards bold, creative ideas that have the power to improve lives. Council's ground-breaking GenAI Community Emergency Response Assistant (CERA) idea stood out from hundreds of entries around the globe. As a finalist, Council will receive US$50,000 funding to create and test a CERA prototype to better deliver personalised, real-time emergency updates to residents. CERA will help overcome two major challenges: the time it takes to verify and share updates during a crisis, and the lack of accessible, culturally relevant information for diverse communities. The tool will learn from on-the-ground reports and speak multiple languages to deliver trusted, clear advice when it matters most. Whether it's a flood, big sea swells, an earthquake or a land slip, the aim of the technology is to get the right message to the right person at the right time. Mayor Campbell Barry says the recognition is a massive vote of confidence in Te Awa Kairangi ki Tai. "This idea came straight from listening to our communities-especially people who've told us they're not getting the right information when emergencies hit. "It's about saving lives and making sure every person, in every part of our city, can act quickly when it matters. We're backing our people to lead their own response, and we think this could be a real game changer-not just for us in Lower Hutt, but right across Aotearoa." Lower Hutt is one of the most at-risk areas in the country when it comes to natural hazards. More than half the population live in tsunami or flood zones. The city also sits on a major fault line and is surrounded by steep hills and coastlines. If Council's CERA tool is named a winner in the competition, it would receive a US$1 million prize to bring the concept to reality. All funding and prizemoney in the Mayors Challenge is supplied by Bloomberg Philanthropies. There is no cost to ratepayers.
Bloomberg
22-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Will 'Drill, Baby, Drill' Work for the US Economy?
Bloomberg's Alix Steel talks to oil producers and policymakers at CERA week. Saad Rahim of Trafigura and Harold Hamm of Continental Resources tell us why an industry that wanted to pump more oil into the market is now having second thoughts. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
13-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
EU, US eye greater energy ties amid Trump frictions
European and US policy makers are eyeing deeper ties around natural gas even as trade conflict boils and President Donald Trump challenges the long-running transatlantic alliance. EU officials appearing on public panels at the CERA Week energy gathering spoke optimistically about the potential for rising US liquefied natural gas exports to play an even bigger role after the fuel offset key supplies following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. "Hopefully by 2027, we will be down to zero (fossil fuel imports from Russia)," Jovita Neliupsiene, ambassador of the European Union Delegation to the United States, said on a panel Wednesday. Earlier this week, Dan Jorgensen, commissioner for energy and housing in the European Commission, said the bloc now gets 13 percent of its gas from Russia, down from 45 percent in February 2022. "Indirectly we have filled Putin's war chest," said Jorgensen, who described the goal as "100 percent free of molecules from Russia." The statements come as supplies of US LNG exports appear poised to surge higher after Trump reversed a move by predecessor Joe Biden to freeze LNG export permitting. Trump administration officials have pointed to higher LNG exports as a way for Europe to address Trump's focus on trade imbalances. At CERA, Trump's Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum both spoke of LNG exports as a way to bolster an ally. European officials did not comment on Trump's friendly posture towards Russian President Vladimir Putin which has come as the White House has broadly distanced itself from traditional allies in Europe. On Wednesday, the European Union unveiled counter-tariffs on US goods after 25 percent US tariffs went into effect on steel and aluminum. - Europe's dilemma - While EU officials set government policy, the decisions about fuel transactions are taken at the corporate level, a point alluded to Laurent Ruseckas of S&P Global, who moderated Wednesday's panel, "Energy and the future of European Security." "It's become sort of a cliche to say that the transatlantic relationship now has become transactional, but in the energy business, transactions are what we're all about," Ruseckas said. LNG is one place where the United States and Europe are still "potentially extremely well aligned," said Ruseckas. The Trump administration's positive stance towards fossil fuels is expected to roughly double the amount of US natural gas exported over the next five years, said Matthew Palmer, head of North American natural gas at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Much of the LNG in this growing "wave" has been through relatively short-term contracts between suppliers like Total and Shell and European utilities that may not want to lock themselves into long-term agreements, Palmer said. "We love the US because you have the cheapest gas of the planet," TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said this week in vowing more US LNG investment. Begun in 1983 by Daniel Yergin, author of The Prize, a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry, CERAWeek is an annual Houston gathering that has expanded beyond its petroleum roots to include the power and renewable sectors. The conference also includes panels with geopolitical experts analyzing what the early days of the Trump administration portends for international alliances. Europe has realized "they have to go it on their own," said Brookings Institution senior fellow Angela Stent. "I see now the beginning of a long term shift of the Europeans realizing that what they have had for these past nearly 80 years is really gone." Some Europeans are privately discussing "why should I trade reliance on Vladimir Putin for reliance on Donald Trump?" said Chris Treanor, executive director of the Partnership to Address Global Emissions. But the current surge of US LNG investment means "there will be more gas available for European buyers, should they be interested in pursuing it." jmb/bgs
Iraqi News
11-03-2025
- Business
- Iraqi News
Trump's Energy Secretary vows reversal of Biden climate policies
Houston – The US Energy Secretary vowed Monday to reset federal energy policy to favor fossil fuels and deprioritize climate change as industry leaders gathered at their biggest event since President Donald Trump returned to office. In the conference's opening session, Energy Secretary Chris Wright cited the Trump administration's moves to cut red tape delaying oil projects and promote liquefied natural gas exports (LNG) as examples of a pivot away from policies pursued under former president Joe Biden. 'The Trump administration will end the Biden administration's irrational quasi-religious policies on climate change that imposed endless sacrifices on our citizens,' Wright told a packed auditorium for the annual Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) conference. Since returning to Washington less than two months ago, Trump and his team have overhauled the existing economic order at a dizzying pace, launching trade wars against allies and hollowing government agencies the president and his allies dislike. Trump made energy policy a central part of his agenda with his day-one 'Unleashing American Energy' executive order, promising during his inaugural address to 'end the Green New Deal' in favor of 'that liquid gold under our feet.' Environmentalists have criticized these shifts as leaving the world vulnerable to catastrophic climate change. Wright's 'speech made clear that he and the rest of the Trump administration are ready to sacrifice our communities and climate for the profits of the fossil fuel industry,' said Allie Rosenbluth, US campaign manager for Oil Change International, which planned a rally in downtown Houston outside the CERA event. – How much change ahead? – Energy played a key supporting role in Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, in which he pointed to higher gasoline prices as a reason more production was needed, embodied by his slogan: 'Drill, Baby, Drill.' Trump's January 20 executive order represents a potentially wide-ranging attack on tax incentives which had been embraced by energy companies to advance billions of dollars of energy transition projects. These projects were connected to laws enacted during Biden's presidency to mitigate climate change. Some pundits think Trump will stop short of actions canceling existing projects where workers have been hired, including many in conservative districts. But the abrupt shift from the climate-focused Biden to Trump likely 'turns 2025 into a paralyzed year where folks are hesitant to push on any kind of decarbonization,' said Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston advisory and investment firm. Wright described his approach as an 'all the above' stance that can include renewable energy, although he told a press conference after the address that offshore wind projects were a waste of money that are 'very unpopular' with communities. At an event last week in Louisiana, Wright touted an announcement by Venture Global of an $18 billion expansion of a liquefied natural gas export facility, highlighting Trump's reversal of a Biden freeze on permitting new LNG export capacity. Trump has ridiculed the environmental concerns at the center of Biden's policy, championing LNG exports as a way to strengthen America's ties with energy importing countries. But there has been widespread skepticism about Trump's message urging the industry to significantly boost oil and gas drilling in order to lift output and lower energy prices. Wall Street has also signaled a clear preference for robust industry profits that can continue to allow for dividends and stock buybacks. – Questions for Europe – At CERA, European officials will meet on panels to discuss Europe at a crossroads after shifting away from Russian energy supplies. In the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, US LNG 'played a super important role' for Europe as the continent sought to lessen its dependence on Russian gas, said Jonathan Elkind, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. However, Trump's realignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin has forced European leaders to reckon with the system's long-term viability. For the near future, including at CERA, Elkind expects European officials to continue to speak optimistically of the prospects for more US LNG. But 'at the back of their mind… it's pretty hard to tell whether Donald Trump is friend or foe and that's a shocking thing to say after 70 years of a close alliance,' Elkind said.
