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Mint
17 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
Market's Getting Jumpy—Here's How Smart Investors Stay In Without Losing Sleep
The U.S. equity market has spent most of 2025 climbing steadily higher. The S&P 500 crossed the 6,300 mark in July. tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq continue to deliver gains, bolstered by AI optimism and strong corporate earnings. But beneath the surface, momentum is thinning. The breadth of the rally, measured by how many stocks are participating, is narrowing. Defensive sectors are beginning to attract capital. And options pricing suggests that traders are starting to hedge, not chase. Volatility, while still contained, is starting to show up again in daily moves. The VIX, long dormant below 14, has crept higher. And with a fresh round of tariff risk hanging over August markets, institutional positioning is shifting toward caution. If you're sitting on a ₹ 5 lakh U.S. equity basket, the impulse might be to book profits or reduce exposure. But stepping out too early can break compounding. This is where smarter investors focus, not on exiting, but on staying in with better safeguards. Every mid-year has its themes. This one carries more than usual: As of mid-July, the S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of around 21.3x, well above its 10-year median of approx. 18x. Even more stretched are the largest tech names, some of which are pricing in multi-year growth without room for error. With U.S. elections approaching, trade tensions have resurfaced. Reports suggest that tariff proposals on China, possibly exceeding 60% on some categories, could re-enter policy discussions in August. Market reactions to these events are rarely subtle. Sectors tied to supply chains, semiconductors, and consumer electronics may face headline risk. Historically, late July into early August is a seasonally weak stretch for U.S. equities. According to CFRA Research, the S&P has averaged flat to negative returns during this window over the past 15 years. In 9 of those years, markets pulled back meaningfully by the third week of August. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury have edged back toward 4.3%. While this is not high by historical standards, it does create a competitive alternative to equities, particularly when tech valuations are under pressure. Put together, the message is not 'panic', it's 'prepare.' If your U.S. equity exposure is tied to large-cap growth stocks, or to sector ETFs with high beta, these swings may already be visible in your portfolio. The problem isn't being invested, it's being unhedged. Most Indian retail portfolios are not designed with volatility management in mind. But that doesn't mean it's complicated. With the right tools, you can stay exposed to upside while reducing the emotional and financial whiplash of short-term drawdowns. Let's look at what that actually looks like. Guardrails aren't about eliminating risk. They're about creating structure around it, so you don't react impulsively when markets shift. Here are five principles investors are using to manage exposure without stepping out: Every investor has a pain point, when short-term losses begin to impact long-term decisions. Identifying it before volatility rises is essential. For example, if a 10% drawdown on your ₹ 5 lakh U.S. allocation feels manageable, set soft alerts at the 5% and 7% levels. This lets you evaluate risk in stages rather than all at once. Long-term investments shouldn't be subject to constant toggling. But for satellite positions, like sector ETFs or mid-cap AI stocks, it makes sense to use stop-loss orders. These act as automated guardrails, protecting capital during sudden drawdowns while keeping you invested until the signal flips. If you're tracking small-cap tech or thematic bets, tools like trailing stop orders or conditional sell triggers can help you stay disciplined. A portfolio can look diversified by sector, but still carry concentrated volatility exposure. For example, owning Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon spans different industries but their price reactions to macro events are often similar. One solution is to add instruments designed to behave differently in turbulent markets. These include: Low-volatility ETFs (e.g., SPLV, USMV) Dividend-weighted ETFs (e.g., VIG, DGRO) Short-duration bond funds (e.g., SHY, BIL) These instruments tend to move more slowly when markets fall and help cushion drawdowns without cutting equity exposure outright. If the risk is macro-driven, like tariffs, Fed decisions, or bond market swings, then it makes sense to treat macro-sensitive sectors differently. Industrials, consumer cyclicals, and semiconductors often react sharply to headline changes. Platforms like Appreciate offer access to sectoral ETFs and thematic portfolios that reflect these macro linkages. Instead of cutting back your entire allocation, consider adjusting sector weights or diversifying within these themes to respond more precisely to macro stress. For investors with new capital or dividend proceeds to reinvest, consider staggered entry. Use 2–3 tranches over a few weeks instead of committing all at once. This is especially useful during periods like July–August when volatility is often event-driven and not fundamentally linked to earnings. Here's how key indicators have moved over the last month: Indicator July Trend Notes S&P 500 +2.9% (YTD 8.11%) Gains remain concentrated in tech VIX (Volatility Index) Up from 13.2 to 15.4 Signaling rising hedging activity 10-Year U.S. Treasury Up to 4.29% Bond yields creating a drag on equity valuations Nasdaq Composite +3.6% Still strong, but increasingly choppy intraday Russell 2000 +4.7% (since mid-June) Small-caps outperforming—but with higher variance The rise in the VIX and bond yields isn't extreme but it's enough to reset positioning. For investors tracking this data weekly, the signals are clear: caution is replacing complacency. Just as important as what to do, is what to avoid: Do not exit your portfolio entirely—timing re-entry is harder than riding out short-term noise Do not react to headlines without checking exposure—not all news affects all holdings equally Do not use cash as your only shield—diversification within asset classes can reduce volatility without halting returns Preserving compounding requires confidence. And confidence grows with structure. The Appreciate app is designed for these moments, not just to help you invest, but to help you invest through volatility. Here's how: Easy access to U.S. stocks, ETFs, and mutual funds for Indian investors ₹ 0 subscription fees and a minimum investment of just ₹ 1 0 subscription fees and a minimum investment of just 1 Allows fractional investing in top global compa nies Provides stock recommendations tailored to your goals using AI One-click INR to USD remittance built into the platform Portfolio insurance up to $500,000 via SIPC, covering broker failure—not market losses Real-time fraud alerts with 24/7 activity monitoring Fully compliant with RBI, IFSCA, and FEMA regulations You don't need to overhaul your strategy. You just need to layer in support that works when the market stops cooperating. Let's say you've got ₹ 5 lakh in U.S. exposure today. A sample diversified structure might look like this: Asset Type Suggested Allocation Objective Core U.S. Equity ETFs (SPY, IVV) ₹ 2,00,000 (40%) Long-term compounding Thematic Stocks (AI, Infra) ₹ 1,00,000 (20%) Growth-focused alpha Low-Volatility or Dividend ETFs ₹ 75,000 (15%) Cushion against market shocks Short-Term Bonds / T-Bills ₹ 50,000 (10%) Defensive income Tactical Cash / Dry Powder ₹ 50,000 (10%) Flexibility during volatility Volatility Hedge ETF (VIXY) ₹ 25,000 (5%) Direct risk offset This kind of structure lets you stay in the market but with shock absorbers. It doesn't dilute returns. It manages the path. Strong markets can make you forget risk. But volatility always returns, usually just as investors start feeling comfortable. What separates long-term success from short-term regret isn't who called the top. It's who stayed prepared without pulling out. You don't have to abandon your U.S. allocation. You don't have to guess what the Fed or the next headline will do. You just need to install smart guardrails that let your portfolio breathe without losing direction. Because the best investors aren't just in the market. They're in the market with a plan. To know more about investing in US stocks, ETFs and Mutual Funds, click here Note to the Reader: This article is part of Mint's promotional consumer connect initiative and is independently created by the brand. Mint assumes no editorial responsibility for the content.
Axios
6 days ago
- Business
- Axios
Why Boeing keeps winning in Trump trade deals
Boeing continues to benefit from trade diplomacy, securing global deals as U.S. partners make concessions in tariff talks with the Trump administration. Why it matters: It's a decisive turn for a company recently beset by business and regulatory disasters caused by quality troubles, legal problems, labor issues and trade walls. The latest: Japan agreed to buy 100 Boeing planes as part of a broader trade deal with the White House, an administration official said. Boeing did not immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday morning. The big picture: The Japan deal highlights a trend. Orders for Boeing's jets have also been included in announced U.S. trade deals with the U.K. and Indonesia. Analysts have speculated that a similar deal could be part of a long-term trade agreement with China. And India was reportedly considering Boeing orders as leverage in their own trade-deal negotiations with the U.S. Meanwhile, Boeing orders have been a component in several economic cooperation deals announced by the White House with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. What they're saying:"These countries, facing the risk of U.S. tariffs or seeking stronger ties with Washington, have turned to Boeing to signal goodwill," CFRA Research analyst Matthew Miller tells Axios. Between the lines: As the largest American exporter — and one of only two major global manufacturers of wide body jets — Boeing is naturally poised to reap significant international business, some of which might've come without trade deals. But the company presents a particularly useful opportunity in bilateral negotiations, where the Trump administration has focused on trade imbalances. "Aircraft purchases offer a fast way to shift trade statistics due to their high dollar value," Miller says. "And Boeing has increasingly become the default American export tool in such scenarios." The impact: The new deals — combined with operational and regulatory progress — have helped boost a recovery in Boeing's stock. Shares are now up 70% since plummeting in April on tariff fears, poor earnings and China temporarily halting Boeing deliveries as trade tensions peaked. The stock is up 25% over the past 12 months. Zoom in: "For Boeing, these trade-influenced deals bring a substantial boost to backlog and future cash flow," Miller said. "While the full revenue impact plays out over time, the order brings near-term benefits in the form of deposits and progress payments, which help improve liquidity. It also provides critical visibility for production planning." Reality check: Past presidential administrations have also touted Boeing deals after international trips and negotiations. President Obama, for example, bragged in 2011 about Indonesia buying more than 200 aircraft from Boeing in "the largest deal, if I'm not mistaken, that Boeing has ever done." The intrigue: President Trump himself has repeatedly torched Boeing since retaking the White House over the company's long-delayed program to build two new Air Force One jets — a contract the president originally signed early in his first term.
Canada News.Net
21-07-2025
- Business
- Canada News.Net
Wall Street splits, Dow dips 19 poin ts, broader markets hit records
NEW YORK, New York - Earnings took center-stage Monday driving up stock prices, with the Standard and Poor's 500 and Nasdaq Composite piercing new upper levels. The Dow Jones ndex however dipped. "Rarely do you injure yourself falling out of a basement window. With expectations so low in earnings, I think that the end result will end up being better than anticipated," Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research,told CNBC Monday. "That is encouraging for the market as well." U.S. Market Highlights S&P 500 (^GSPC) Closed at 6,305.60, up 8.81 points or 0.14 percent Trading volume: 2.624 billion shares The broad index edged higher, led by consumer discretionary and tech stocks. Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Finished at 44,323.07, down 19.12 points or 0.04 percent Trading volume: 437.642 million shares Weakness in financial and industrial stocks weighed on the blue-chip index. Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) Surged to 20,974.17, gaining 78.52 points or 0.38 percent Trading volume: 11.124 billion shares Big Tech continued its rally ahead of this week's earnings reports. Forex Markets See Euro and Pound Rally While Yen Strengthens Against U.S. Dollar Monday's foreign exchange session saw the euro and British pound extend gains against the U.S. dollar, while the Japanese yen posted its strongest daily advance in weeks despite the outcome of Sunday's elections. Key Currency Movements EUR/USD (Euro / US dollar) Rate: 1.1694 (+0.01) Daily Change: +0.59 percent The euro continued its upward momentum as ECB officials signaled patience on rate cuts. USD/JPY (US dollar / Japanese yen) Rate: 147.30 (-1.49) Daily Change: -1.00 percent The yen advanced as Sunday's election result was built-in.. GBP/USD (British pound / US dollar) Rate: 1.3487 (+0.01) Daily Change: +0.59 percent Sterling gained as UK inflation concerns delayed Bank of England easing expectations. USD/CAD (US dollar / Canadian dollar) Rate: 1.3685 (-0.00) Daily Change: -0.24 percent The loonie held steady as oil prices offset broader USD weakness. USD/CHF (US dollar / Swiss franc) Rate: 0.7981 (-0.00) Daily Change: -0.38 percent The franc benefited from safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions. Commodity Currencies AUD/USD: 0.6524 (+0.00, +0.32 percent) NZD/USD: 0.5971 (+0.00, +0.27 percent) Both antipodean currencies edged higher despite China growth concerns. Market Drivers Trading was dominated by: Shifting central bank expectations (BOJ, Fed, ECB) Geopolitical tensions supporting safe havens Commodity price stabilization Outlook With critical U.S. GDP and PCE data due this week, analysts warn of potential increased volatility across major currency pairs. The yen's momentum will be closely watched ahead of Friday's Tokyo CPI print. Global Stocks Markets Close Mixed on Monday; Asia and Europe Show Divergent Trends Global stock markets delivered a mixed performance on Monday, with gains in some key Asian and European indices offset by declines in others. Investors weighed economic data and corporate earnings as trading sessions wrapped up across major financial hubs. Canadian Market Update S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Closed at 27,317.00, up 2.99 points or 0.01 percent Trading volume: 217.735 million shares The energy sector offset losses in materials as oil prices stabilized. UK and Europe: FTSE Rises, CAC 40 Slips In the United Kongdom, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) edged higher, closing at 9,012.99, up 20.87 points or 0.23 percent, supported by gains in energy and financial stocks. In Europe, Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) also saw a modest increase, finishing at 24,307.80, a rise of 18.29 points or 0.08 percent. However, France's CAC 40 (^FCHI) dipped 24.45 points or 0.31 percent to 7,798.22, while the broader EURO STOXX 50 (^STOXX50E) fell 16.25 points or 0.30 percent to 5,342.98. Belgium's BEL 20 (^BFX) bucked the trend, climbing 9.69 points or 0.21 percent to 4,554.08. Asia and Pacific: Mixed Movements Amid Earnings Season Asian markets were largely positive, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (^HSI) jumping 168.48 points or 0.68 percent to 24,994.14. Singapore's STI Index (^STI) gained 17.63 points or 0.42 percent, closing at 4,207.13. In China's, the SSE Composite ( added 25.31 points or 0.72 percent to 3,559.79. Japan's Nikkei 225 (^N225) dipped 82.09 points or 0.21 percent to 39,819.11. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO), however, dropped sharply by 89.00 points or 1.02 percent to 8,668.20, while the All Ordinaries (^AORD) fell 80.60 points or 0.89 percent to 8,926.20. New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 (^NZ50) climbed 81.11 points or 0.63 percent to 12,961.51. India's S&P BSE SENSEX (^BSESN) rose 442.62 points or 0.54 percent to 82,200.34, and Indonesia's IDX Composite (^JKSE) surged 86.28 points or 1.18 percent to 7,398.19. Other Key Markets South Korea's KOSPI (^KS11) advanced 22.74 points or 0.71 percent to 3,210.81. Taiwan's TWSE (^TWII) slipped 42.57 points or 0.18 percent to 23,340.56. Middle East Israel's TA-125 (^ gained 28.69 points or 0.93 percent to 3,117.36. Egypt's EGX 30 (^CASE30) rose 58.60 points or 0.17 percent to 34,129.60. Africa South Africa's Top 40 USD (^ increased 49.73 points or 0.90 percent to 5,577.38. Market Outlook Analysts noted that trading sentiment remained cautious amid geopolitical tensions and anticipation of central bank policy decisions. With earnings season in full swing, corporate results are expected to drive further volatility in the coming sessions.
The Sun
10-07-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Nvidia hits $4 trillion value as AI boom reshapes global markets
CALIFORNIA: Nvidia has made history by becoming the first company to reach a staggering $4 trillion in market value, a milestone underscoring Wall Street's confidence in artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force. The chipmaker's shares briefly surged to $164.42 in early trading before settling slightly lower, just shy of the record threshold. Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers noted, 'The market has an incredible certainty that AI is the future. Nvidia is certainly the company most positioned to benefit from that gold rush.' The firm, led by CEO Jensen Huang, now boasts a valuation surpassing the GDP of major economies like France, Britain, and India. Nvidia's rally has also buoyed broader market sentiment, with the Nasdaq closing at a fresh high. Analysts attribute part of this rebound to eased trade tensions after former President Donald Trump softened some tariff policies. However, export controls on China and lingering trade uncertainties remain challenges. Despite these hurdles, Nvidia secured a major deal to develop AI infrastructure in Saudi Arabia during Trump's state visit in May. Angelo Zino of CFRA Research observed, 'We've seen the administration using Nvidia chips as a bargaining chip.' The company's rise reflects sustained AI enthusiasm, with shares climbing over 21% in 2025 compared to the Nasdaq's 6.7% gain. Huang has impressed investors with innovations like next-gen Blackwell GPUs and 'real-time digital twins,' accelerating advancements in manufacturing and aerospace. However, competition is intensifying. China's DeepSeek disrupted the AI sector with a cost-efficient model, briefly erasing $600 billion from Nvidia's valuation. Huang has advocated against U.S. export restrictions, framing competition as beneficial for innovation. In Q1 2025, Nvidia reported $19 billion in earnings despite a $4.5 billion hit from China-related export curbs. Tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Meta continue investing heavily in AI, with Nvidia maintaining its lead. Zino added that demand for complex reasoning models is growing, positioning Nvidia at the forefront of AI agent development. Yet, rapid AI adoption raises concerns over job displacement, with firms like Ford and JPMorgan acknowledging workforce impacts. Nvidia closed at $162.88, up 1.8%, narrowly missing the $4 trillion mark. - AFP
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Big Bank earnings: Why capital markets will be the key driver
Bank stocks have surged since April, but uncertainty remains as earnings season approaches. Ken Leon, CFRA Research director of equity research, joins Market Catalysts to explain why capital markets will be so crucial for Big Bank earnings in the second half of the year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Catalysts here. So, Ken, let's start with you and talk about that sort of macroeconomic backdrop for the big banks. What's your assessment of that and how it's going to feed through their earnings? Well, it's great to be here and, um, really since the lows of April, uh, the bank stocks, particularly the US Global Banks have strongly outperformed the S&P 500. They're up over 2x that. Additionally, we still have uncertainty. So, um, it may be where you want to be more selective within the large banks. Uh, as noted, you know, with the downgrades today. Uh, we were a little bit early, uh, downgrading JP Morgan and Bank of America a couple weeks ago from buy to hold. We think really the delta for getting better fundamental performance and getting price performance, um, it's going to be the capital markets and that's something, uh, we should be talking about, uh, because the opportunities for the second half of this year, uh, look to be very positive. All right, so let's talk about that because we have had sort of a freeze in deal making, right? Or at least a very tepid deal making environment. So what gives you the confidence that we're going to see that perk up and is that something that we're going to hear from these bank execs on conference calls? Sure. So, so as a global research director, I'm looking at all the markets around the world. Uh, we began to see opening, uh, in May in Hong Kong, um, and now we're beginning to see, um, in IPOs, uh, large size deals, uh, in the US. Uh, we're additionally beginning to see mergers and acquisitions, uh, take place. It's coming, that comes from two areas. One, of course, is corporates, but the other is from the private equity firms, um, that need an exit on their funds where they own companies. Um, you they have about two trillion dollars of companies that have to be monetized. Uh, the last two years hasn't been a good exit ramp, uh, for M&A or IPO, uh, for the private equity firms, but it's happening. Uh, additionally, uh, rates aren't going higher, they're likely to be going lower. We see up to four rate cuts over the next 12 months. And, uh, we also have, uh, a much more constructive, uh, public policy and regulation, uh, not only from the Fed, uh, but from other agencies, that's going to suggest, uh, that it's a good time to invest. Uh, all this leads, I think, to strong performance, uh, and outlook, which we're going to hear from the banks next week. So, if capital markets is the delta, uh, that's going to determine the second half of the year here, are there individual banks that you think are especially well-positioned in those capital markets and an investment banking? Well, there are. So, I told you what we downgraded, but the ones that we still like, um, are Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley. Um, they also, it's a tough call. Your first question was about the economy. The general economy may be slowing in the second half of that year, but maybe not the capital markets. Additionally, rates could come down which impacts net interest income for the JP Morgans, Bank of Americas, that's 60% of their total revenue. More Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, it's under 20%. So, it's more that as the non-interest income or transaction fees for these banks, uh, are going to be going higher, not lower in the second half of this year.
