Latest news with #CIMBInvestmentBankBhd
New Straits Times
22-07-2025
- Business
- New Straits Times
Analysts see Malaysia's inflation rate at between two and 2.2pct in 2025
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's inflation for 2025 is projected at 2.0 per cent, supported by the "gradual and orderly implementation of fiscal retargeting measures and moderate demand-side pressures," said RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB). The investment bank noted that while domestic policy action, such as retargeting of the RON95 subsidy, Sales and Service Tax (SST) expansion, wage-related adjustments and the restructuring of electricity tariffs, may exert some upward pressure on prices, the overall impact is expected to remain contained. "Inflation averaged a soft 1.4 per cent in the first half of 2025 (1H 2025) and is projected to rise to 2.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the second half of 2025 (2H 2025), reflecting potential upside risks from the domestic policy action factors. "However, we also see downside risks to our current inflation projections, particularly due to possible delays in the implementation of the RON95 subsidy retargeting," it said in a research note today. RHB IB estimated the direct impact of the SST expansion on the consumer price index (CPI) to be negligible at around 0.1-0.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) on a full-year basis. "Nonetheless, we expect some passthrough impact from SST broadening to higher food prices and increased business costs to consumers, albeit in a limited fashion," it said. The bank also expects the overnight policy rate (OPR) to remain at 2.75 per cent for the remainder of 2025, provided gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains within the long-term range of four to five per cent. "Inflationary pressures to remain manageable. For upcoming meetings in September and November, officials will likely stay data-dependent," it said. Meanwhile, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd projects the annual CPI at 2.2 per cent in 2025, supported by the relatively limited impact of recent policy adjustments. "We flag the November monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting as a key event to watch, given two critical developments, namely the tabling of Budget 2026 on Oct 10 and the availability of more meaningful macro-data points. This includes external trade figures for August and September post frontloading activity, as well as advance 3Q 2025 GDP estimates," it said. Against this backdrop, CIMB Investment expects the OPR to stay at 2.75 per cent through end-2025.
The Sun
02-07-2025
- Business
- The Sun
Johor-Singapore SEZ to boost state GDP share above 12% by 2030
KUALA LUMPUR: The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) is expected to propel Johor's share of national gross domestic product (GDP) to exceed 12 per cent by 2023, should their investments materialise according to plan, said CIMB Investment Bank Bhd In a note, the investment bank said JS-SEZ could contribute RM117.1 billion to the country's GDP by 2030, representing an average annual rise of RM19.5 billion — equivalent to 0.6–1.0 per cent of GDP per year from 2025 to 2030. Achieving this would require a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 8.4 per cent per annum (p.a.), more than double its 3.8 p.a. growth during 2016–2023, it noted. 'This estimate assumes steady growth and a national GDP growth rate of 6.0 per cent. 'Key growth drivers include rising domestic and foreign investment in sectors like logistics, healthcare, tourism, and the digital economy, as well as enhanced labour mobility, improved cross-border trade facilitation, and major infrastructure upgrades,' it said. Johor's investment momentum has surged in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q 2025), securing a total of RM30.1 billion in approved investments, driven by JS-SEZ initiatives and pro-business reforms. Singapore was the largest investor in 1Q 2025 with 65 projects worth RM28.3 billion in approved FDI, beating other contenders such as the United States (RM9.9 billion) and China (RM7.9 billion). These investments are expected to generate 33,000 new jobs and put Johor on track to surpass its 2024 approved investments record of RM48.5 billion, and Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi is now targeting RM60 billion-RM100 billion in approved investments for 2025. According to CIMB Investment, investors' focus will be on key zones like Forest City and Sedenak, led by data centres, electrical and electronics, electric vehicles, and the logistics sectors. 'The JS-SEZ blueprint clearly outlines sector priorities to designated zones, ensuring focused development and ecosystem clustering. Delivering on these projects will establish Johor as a diversified and globally connected economic engine by 2030,' it said. CIMB Investment added that the JS-SEZ is also expected to strengthen the Johor-Singapore economic corridor, enabling a twin-city model similar to Shenzhen-Hong Kong. 'Johor offers scale, land, and labour, while Singapore brings capital, finance, and global networks. Their integration creates a compelling, cost-efficient destination for global investors, with seamless operations across both jurisdictions,' it said.
The Star
24-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
CIMB expects electricity tariff reform to have minimal inflation impact
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's upcoming electricity tariff restructuring is expected to have a minimal impact on overall inflation, and its direct effect on headline consumer price index (CPI) is anticipated to be marginally disinflationary, said CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB). Based on Tenaga Nasional Bhd 's bill calculations, domestic users consuming below 1,000 kilowatt per hour (kWh) per month are expected to benefit most from discounts of 1.0-14.5 per cent, with those using under 600 kWh receiving full retail charge and services tax waivers. In a research note today, CIMB Investment Bank said it estimates that 85 per cent of residential users-equivalent to around 7.7 million households - consume less than 600 kWh, making them eligible for the full charge waiver and reinforcing the disinflationary bias. "Electricity holds a 2.7 per cent weight in the CPI basket, and with average household consumption estimated at 440 kWh, the full-year CPI impact is likely to come in slightly below -0.1 percentage point,' it added. The investment bank said the tariff also introduces targeted rebates via the Energy Efficiency Incentive, and expands off-peak hours under the Time-of-Use pricing scheme - from 10 pm - 8 am to 10 pm - 2 pm - enhancing potential savings for low- to moderate-usage households. Meanwhile, it said the trajectory of future tariffs under the Automatic Fuel Adjustment mechanism will hinge on foreign exchange movements and market fuel prices, particularly global coal and natural gas, which collectively account for around 90 per cent of Malaysia's energy mix. "While prices for both commodities remain relatively subdued versus last year, geopolitical risks could still introduce price volatility. "Nonetheless, with most households shielded and current fuel costs relatively contained, we expect the inflationary impact to remain limited,' it said. Malaysia's headline inflation eased to 1.2 per cent year-on-year in May - its lowest level since February 2021. "Given subdued inflation trends, coupled with weak external trade, we maintain our call for Bank Negara Malaysia to cut the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent at the upcoming July monetary policy committee meeting to support growth,' added CIMB. - Bernama
