Latest news with #CME
Wall Street Journal
20 hours ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Treasury Yields Keep Some Momentum as Fed Faces Data Challenge
1132 ET – Markets price more than 50% odds of three or more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, CME data show, as President Trump cranks up pressure on Chair Powell. But inflation could get in the way. May PCE surprised a little on the upside and a greater impact from tariffs is expected in coming months. Activity data, however, opens the door for cuts. In fact, May PCE figures underscore the Fed's worst scenario, 'a slowing economy at the same time that inflation is picking up,' Santander's Stephen Stanley says. The opposing forces seem reflected in Treasury yields, which are wobbling. The 10-year is at 4.271%, higher than yesterday but off early highs. ( @ptrevisani) 0852 ET – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge rises in line with forecasts in May, while personal income and consumer spending disappoint, pushing Treasury yields lower. Annual PCE inflation is 2.3%, up from April's 2.1%, and matching forecasts—easing fears of an upside surprise stemming from tariffs. Personal income falls 0.4%. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected a 0.3% increase. Spending contracts 0.1%, versus forecast of a 0.1% increase. The consumer indicators could increase expectations of an early Fed cut. Yields are higher than yesterday, but fell from morning highs after the data. The 10-year is at 4.256% and the two-year at 3.734%, both on pace for a weekly decline. ( @ptrevisani)
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
XRP's Price Volatility Crashes to Lowest Level Since Trump's Victory. What Next?
A measure of XRP's XRP price volatility has crashed to the lowest level since President Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. elections in November. Still, it's not yet at the level which has historically presaged strong directional trends. XRP's 30-day annualized realized volatility, a measure of how volatile prices have been over the past four weeks, recently dropped to 44%, the lowest since early November, according to data source TradingView. The decline marks a sharp slide from highs above 150% registered in December and March. The volatility meltdown follows boring price action in the XRP market. This despite the debut of XRP futures on the CME, several issuers applying for spot XRP ETFs and overall positive regulatory developments for the crypto industry under Trump's presidency. Since March, XRP has primarily traded back and forth between $2 and $2.60, barring the occasional short-lived dips below $2. XRP is the payments-focused cryptocurrency used by fintech company Ripple to facilitate cross-border transactions. The price action is consistent with that of bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, which has mostly traded between $100,000 and $110,000 for almost 50 consecutive days. Volatility is mean-reverting, which means that, over time, it tends to fluctuate around its long-term average. In other words, a sharp rise in volatility often paves the way for consolidation, and a prolonged drop in volatility usually sets the stage for strong directional trends. That said, the 30-day realized volatility is still well above the 15% to 30% range, which has marked volatility bottoms and renewed price turbulence since in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows price increases accelerated in May
The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed price increases accelerated in May as inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target. The release comes as investors have been closely watching data releases for signs of when, or if, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. The "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which strips out food and energy costs and is closely watched by the central bank, rose 2.7% on an annual basis, above the 2.6% economists had expected and higher than the 2.6% seen in April. The April reading was revised higher to 2.6% from an originally reported 2.5% increase. Core prices rose 0.2% in May from the prior month, above the 0.1% economists had expected, which would have been in line with April's increase. On a yearly basis, overall PCE increased by 2.3%, above the 2.2% increase from the month prior. The data's release comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of House lawmakers, stressing that the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" before moving interest rates. But debate over when the central bank will cut interest rates has been heating up. Entering Friday's release markets were pricing in a 27% chance the central bank cuts interest rates at its next meeting in late July, up from a 12.5% chance seen last week, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Odds of a cut by the end of September had also surged, with markets now pricing in a 92% chance the central bank will have lowered rates by then, up from a 64% chance seen just a week ago. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.
BusinessToday
a day ago
- Business
- BusinessToday
Wall Street Rallies As Rate Cut Hopes, Ceasefire Boost Investor Confidence
Wall Street surged on June 26, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq inching closer to record closing highs, fuelled by optimism over a potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. All three major indexes posted strong gains in a broad-based rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 404.41 points, or 0.94%, to close at 43,386.84. The S&P 500 gained 0.80% to 6,141.02, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.97% to 20,167.91. The rally was underpinned by a continued ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which eased geopolitical risks, and a slew of economic data that reinforced expectations for a Fed rate cut later this year. Market bets now place a 75% chance of a rate reduction by September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Bank stocks led the charge, with the S&P 500 banks index jumping 1.6% after the Fed proposed easing leverage rules, potentially freeing up capital for major banks. Fed officials offered dovish signals, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly citing a muted tariff impact and Boston Fed President Susan Collins leaning toward a rate cut amid economic uncertainty. Their comments followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, in which he maintained a cautious stance on monetary policy. Economic indicators painted a mixed picture. While the first quarter GDP was revised lower due to soft consumer spending and jobless claims hit multi-year highs, durable goods orders and pending home sales beat forecasts, helping buoy investor sentiment. In sector performance, communication services outpaced all others, while real estate lagged. Micron fell 1% despite a strong revenue forecast, while copper's rally to a three-month high lifted miners Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper by 6.8% and 7.8%, respectively. Market breadth was overwhelmingly positive: advancers outpaced decliners nearly five-to-one on the NYSE and more than two-to-one on the Nasdaq, signalling broad investor optimism. With stocks hovering near all-time highs and Fed policy seemingly tilting dovish, all eyes now turn to upcoming economic data for further confirmation on the central bank's path forward. Related
Globe and Mail
2 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
ICE Hits 52-Week High, Trades at a Discount: How to Play the Stock
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE hit a 52-week high of $181.65 on June 25. Shares closed at $180.53 after gaining 21.2% year to date, outperforming the industry, the sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite in the same time frame. Intercontinental has outperformed its peers, including Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE, CME Group Inc. CME and Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ. Shares of CBOE, CME and NDAQ have gained 17.9%, 17.6% and 13.9%, respectively, year to date. With a market capitalization of $103.55 billion, the average number of shares traded in the last three months was 3.2 million. ICE Trading Above 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages Shares of Intercontinental are trading above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) of $173.34 and $164.01, respectively, indicating solid upward momentum. SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data. ICE Shares are Affordable Intercontinental shares are trading at a forward price-to-earnings of 24.72X, lower than the industry average of 26.25X. Its pricing, at a discount to the industry average, gives a better entry point to investors. ICE's Growth Projection Encourages The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Intercontinental Exchange's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 14.5%. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $9.96 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 7.3%. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 10.4% and 5.7%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 13.3%, outperforming the industry average of 10.1%. Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on ICE Seven of the nine analysts covering the stock have raised estimates for 2025, while seven of the 10 analysts have raised the same for 2026 over the past 60 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 moved 1.3% and 1.2% north, respectively, in the last 60 days. Average Target Price for ICE Suggests Upside Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $194.18 per share. The average suggests a potential 7.3% upside from the last closing price. Earnings Surprise History Intercontinental surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and matched in one, the average being 1.30%. Key Drivers of ICE Stock ICE's top line is poised to improve on strength in global data services and index business, growth in pricing and reference data business, and strength in ICE Global Network offering, solid desktop, feeds and derivatives analytics. The company has been achieving expense synergies from strategic acquisitions, which have also strengthened its portfolio and expanded its presence. ICE boasts the largest mortgage network across the United States and thus remains well-positioned to benefit from accelerated digitization in the residential mortgage industry. ICE continuously engages in strategic investments supported by a healthy and minimal risk-based balance sheet, which also offers stability and buoyancy over the medium to long term. However, operating expenses have been increasing over the last several years, weighing on margin expansion. With continuous growth initiatives like product launches and technology upgrades, we believe that expenses are likely to remain elevated in the near term. Though the debt balance declined, its leverage as well as times interest earned compares unfavorably with the industry average. Wrapping Up: Keep On Holding ICE is poised for growth, banking on the strength of its compelling portfolio and expansive risk-management services, which also ensure revenue flow, as well as strategic buyouts, a solid balance sheet and effective capital deployment. Its dividend history is impressive. It has more than doubled its dividends in the last six years. Optimistic analyst sentiment, favorable growth estimates, as well as attractive valuations, should continue to benefit ICE over the long term. It is, therefore, wise to hold on to this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Research Chief Names "Single Best Pick to Double" From thousands of stocks, 5 Zacks experts each have chosen their favorite to skyrocket +100% or more in months to come. From those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian hand-picks one to have the most explosive upside of all. This company targets millennial and Gen Z audiences, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue last quarter alone. A recent pullback makes now an ideal time to jump aboard. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Nano-X Imaging which shot up +129.6% in little more than 9 months. Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners Up Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE): Free Stock Analysis Report CME Group Inc. (CME): Free Stock Analysis Report Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ): Free Stock Analysis Report Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE): Free Stock Analysis Report
