Latest news with #CRUGroup
Time of India
a day ago
- Business
- Time of India
China eases urea export ban, but not for India
China is loosening its ban on urea exports, a move likely to ease surging international prices that have been buoyed by tension in the West Asia. Limits on exports of the fertilizer will be loosened from this month, according to people familiar with matter. However, Chinese companies will still be subject to quotas and, in some instances, minimum prices for shipments, said the people, who asked not to be named as they're not authorized to talk to the media. Exports to India will still be restricted, they said. China's ministry of commerce didn't immediately reply to a fax seeking comment. Urea, the world's most commonly used nitrogen fertilizer, provides one of the essential nutrients that underpin global food production. As recently as 2023, China was the world's biggest exporter of urea, but a ban on overseas shipments was put in place last June to cut domestic prices to aid farmers and bolster food security. So far, the quota for urea exports has been set at about 2 million tons for the near term, according to Gavin Ju, an analyst at CRU Group in Beijing. "The original intent of the policy was to secure domestic supplies and stabilize prices at a level that farmers could afford," he said. "Local prices have remained within a reasonable range. So taking into consideration affordability for farmers and profits for urea companies, it makes sense to loosen controls on exports." Urea prices in Shandong, a top producing province, fell to the lowest in more than seven years in Jan and have remained subdued since then. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Bloomberg
5 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Global Urea Prices Surge as Some Mideast Producers Halt Output
Global prices of key fertilizer ingredient urea have surged alongside escalating violence in the Middle East, which threatens to choke supplies of the crop nutrient from a significant producing and exporting region. Nearly half of world's urea exports are sourced from manufacturing facilities on the Persian Gulf, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, with recent strikes putting those supplies at risk. Egypt and Iran have already curtailed production, which alone were responsible for almost 20% of global urea trade last year, according to Chris Lawson, head of fertilizers at consulting firm CRU Group.
The Star
09-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
China's copper boom under threat as miners test bargaining power
This photo taken on May 17, 2025 shows the Dexing Copper Mine, an open-pit copper mine in Dexing, in China's central Jiangxi province. China's refined copper output is set to rise ten per cent in the first half of this year and nearly five per cent for the full year. - AFP BEIJING: The unrelenting expansion of Chinese copper processing capacity over the past few years has now become a global headache, as smelters scramble to secure the ore they need to produce the vital industrial metal. Output in the world's top producer of the refined metal has ballooned to a record this year, even in the face of trade tensions wars that are clouding the outlook for demand. The resulting competition has handed bargaining power to some of the world's largest miners. Copper treatment charges, typically a key earner for processors, have plunged deep below zero on the spot market. Chilean miner Antofagasta Plc has proposed negative charges for contracted supplies to smelters in the second half. The fraught situation for smelters worldwide is fueling expectations of cuts - Glencore Plc shut a facility in the Philippines in February. It's also focusing market attention on the surprising resilience of China's output, and raising the question of how long that can last. Analysts and industry executives say China's output is more resistant to financial pressures because it is now dominated by state-owned producers and by relatively large, efficient and low-cost smelters. Three major new plants were opened just last year, more than offsetting the pain felt by more modest operations. But there's also a still-substantial segment of China's market that is made up of smaller, privately owned smelters with more exposure to a tightening spot market. CRU Group says those plants account for about a quarter of the country's output. "Even if you have very deep pockets and are willing to operate at a loss, at the end of the day you might have to cut production because you simply cannot get the copper concentrate,' said Craig Lang, principal analyst at CRU Group. The stakes are high for the global copper smelting industry. With all high-cost facilities facing losses, every tonne that resists financial pressure in China means more pain for those elsewhere. Spot treatment charges to process concentrate fell to negative levels in December, and reached minus-$60 a tonne last month. The fees are deducted from the cost of concentrate and ordinarily make up a large chunk of smelter revenues. Term supplies are now threatening to slide into negative territory too, meaning smelters are effectively paying more for copper ore than the value of the metal contained in it. In February, when fees were less punitive than they are now, Glencore Plc Chief Executive Officer Gary Nagle said he wouldn't keep open loss-making copper plants. The company mothballed a smelter in the Philippines and is cutting costs at plants in Canada. Older European copper smelters could be at risk, while Japanese plants may be sheltered due to their parent companies' stakes in Chilean mines, said Grant Sporre, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. "It's going to be a tough battle for survival.' Granted, the plunge in fees is partly due to relatively slow growth in mine output worldwide - but it's primarily driven by the rapid increase in smelting capacity. China's refined copper output is set to rise ten per cent in the first half of this year and nearly five per cent for the full year, according to researcher Shanghai Metals Market. The argument for China's resilient output rests largely on the belief that state-owned plants are protected because local governments want to safeguard jobs and the economy. "This is a consequence of an economic model that is less responsive to prevailing market conditions as plants can run on very thin margins - or even make losses - for extended periods of time,' Savant, a joint venture by Marex Group Plc and geospatial analysis company Earth-i, said in a note last month. Although cutting overcapacity across the Chinese economy has become a more important policy priority for Beijing recently, so called 'future-friendly' industries like copper, a metal required for electrification and so for the energy transition, are being given more leeway than sectors seen to be in structural decline, such as oil refining. For producers outside China, there is no such cushion. The suspension of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.'s Kakula copper mine in central Africa has been a blow to ore supply - and at the same time developments like the ramp-up of Freeport McMoRan Inc.'s Manyar smelter in Indonesia are adding more refining capacity to the market. Big smelters may still be able to maintain production for now, following some years of healthy cash flow, said Yongcheng Zhao, an analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence Ltd. The less-efficient ones, though, are at risk. - Bloomberg
Business Times
09-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
China's copper boom under threat as miners test bargaining power
[BEIJING] The unrelenting expansion of Chinese copper processing capacity over the past few years has now become a global headache, as smelters scramble to secure the ore they need to produce the vital industrial metal. Output in the world's top producer of the refined metal has ballooned to a record this year, even in the face of trade tensions wars that are clouding the outlook for demand. The resulting competition has handed bargaining power to some of the world's largest miners. Copper treatment charges, typically a key earner for processors, have plunged deep below zero on the spot market. Chilean miner Antofagasta has proposed negative charges for contracted supplies to smelters in the second half. The fraught situation for smelters worldwide is fuelling expectations of cuts – Glencore shut a facility in the Philippines in February. It's also focusing market attention on the surprising resilience of China's output, and raising the question of how long that can last. Analysts and industry executives say China's output is more resistant to financial pressures because it is now dominated by state-owned producers and by relatively large, efficient and low-cost smelters. Three major new plants were opened just last year, more than offsetting the pain felt by more modest operations. But there's also a still-substantial segment of China's market that is made up of smaller, privately owned smelters with more exposure to a tightening spot market. CRU Group says those plants account for about a quarter of the country's output. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'Even if you have very deep pockets and are willing to operate at a loss, at the end of the day you might have to cut production because you simply cannot get the copper concentrate,' said Craig Lang, principal analyst at CRU Group. The stakes are high for the global copper smelting industry. With all high-cost facilities facing losses, every ton that resists financial pressure in China means more pain for those elsewhere. Spot treatment charges to process concentrate fell to negative levels in December, and reached minus US$60 a tonne last month. The fees are deducted from the cost of concentrate and ordinarily make up a large chunk of smelter revenues. Term supplies are now threatening to slide into negative territory too, meaning smelters are effectively paying more for copper ore than the value of the metal contained in it. In February, when fees were less punitive than they are now, Glencore chief executive officer Gary Nagle said he wouldn't keep open loss-making copper plants. The company mothballed a smelter in the Philippines and is cutting costs at plants in Canada. Older European copper smelters could be at risk, while Japanese plants may be sheltered due to their parent companies' stakes in Chilean mines, said Grant Sporre, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 'It's going to be a tough battle for survival.' Outlook worsening Granted, the plunge in fees is partly due to relatively slow growth in mine output worldwide – but it's primarily driven by the rapid increase in smelting capacity. China's refined copper output is set to rise 10 per cent in the first half of this year and nearly 5 per cent for the full year, according to researcher Shanghai Metals Market. The argument for China's resilient output rests largely on the belief that state-owned plants are protected because local governments want to safeguard jobs and the economy. 'This is a consequence of an economic model that is less responsive to prevailing market conditions as plants can run on very thin margins – or even make losses – for extended periods of time,' Savant, a joint venture by Marex Group and geospatial analysis company Earth-i, said in a note last month. Although cutting overcapacity across the Chinese economy has become a more important policy priority for Beijing recently, so called 'future-friendly' industries such as copper, a metal required for electrification and so for the energy transition, are being given more leeway than sectors seen to be in structural decline, such as oil refining. For producers outside China, there is no such cushion. The suspension of Ivanhoe Mines' Kakula copper mine in central Africa has been a blow to ore supply – and at the same time developments such as the ramp-up of Freeport McMoRan's Manyar smelter in Indonesia are adding more refining capacity to the market. Big smelters may still be able to maintain production for now, following some years of healthy cash flow, said Yongcheng Zhao, an analyst at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence. The less-efficient ones, though, are at risk. BLOOMBERG
Reuters
19-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
European bismuth prices rocket to record highs on China export curbs
March 19 (Reuters) - Bismuth prices in Europe have surged to all-time highs as China's export controls squeeze supplies of the mineral used in atomic research, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, according to traders and experts. Prices of bismuth have jumped to $40 a lb on the European spot market, an all-time high, up from $6 per lb in late January, a more than six-fold rise. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. In the United States, bismuth prices are even higher - at $55 a lb compared with $6.5-$7 before China's export curbs. Traders said U.S. prices were also higher because of the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports from top producer China. China in February announced plans to impose export controls on five key metals, opens new tab - tungsten, tellurium, molybdenum, bismuth, and indium - in response to Trump's import tariffs. "At the moment there are no supply sources to fully replace Chinese material," commodity analysts with business intelligence company CRU Group told Reuters. "As much of the supply tightness is based on policy, it can ease very quickly. But assuming a full stop of Chinese bismuth exports, new capacity ex-China would be necessary." According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China was responsible for producing around 13,000 metric tons of mined bismuth last year or more than 80% of the global total. The rest comes from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Laos. Prices have risen significantly, making it risky to ship materials for stockpiling since delivery takes about two months and no one knows where the market will be by then, said a Europe-based trader. "This situation is causing a very low unsold inventory level internationally, keeping the price for prompt material at a very high level," he added. Meanwhile, the most active bismuth contract on the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange was trading at 163,800 yuan ($22,677) per metric ton on Tuesday, 105% higher than at the beginning of the year.
