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Business Standard
04-07-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Silver price outlook: White metal may rise to $40 level; check key levels
Performance: On July 3, spot silver traded between $36.34 and $37.07. At the time of writing, the gray metal was trading at 36.85, up around 0.82 per cent on the day. The MCX September silver contract at ₹1,08,200 was up around 0.6 per cent. Data roundup: US nonfarm payroll (June) was largely reassuring as US employees added 1,47,000 jobs against the expectation of 1,06,000 jobs, which belied the fears of job losses as portrayed by ADP report released on Wednesday. Two-month payroll net revision stood at 16,000 as unemployment rate unexpectedly slid from 4.2 per cent to 4.1 per cent Vs the estimate of 4.3 per cent. However, the decline in unemployment rate has been driven by jobseekers, especially foreigners, leaving the workforce pool due to deportation, lack of job opportunities, etc. Labour force participation rate edged lower from 62.4 per cent to 62.3 per cent (forecast 62.4 per cent). Average hourly earnings rose 0.2 per cent m-o-m and 3.7 per cent against the respective forecasts of 0.3 per cent and 3.80 per cent. ISM Services Index crept back into expansion territory after a month as the largest component of the US economy posted a reading of 50.8; thus, beating the estimate of 50.6 as new orders expanded, though services employment contracted more than expected. The Eurozone's composite PMI data (June final) rose to 50.60, fastest since March, while China's Caixin PMI composite slowed down from 51.10 to 50.60 (forecast 50.90). Tariff developments: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on July 3 that President Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 tariff hike deadline. Earlier on July 2, the US and Vietnam finalised a trade deal in principle under which Vietnam will pay 20 per cent tariffs on its US exports, whereas the US will pay 0 per cent tariff on its exports to Vietnam. In addition, the US imposed a 40 per cent tariff rate on Vietnam's transhipments which is likely to make Chinese goods exported through Vietnam to US costlier. It is to be noted that a significant share of Vietnam's exports to the US includes goods like air pods, phones, etc assembled with Chinese parts in Vietnam's factories. As per Lowly Institute (Sydney) 28 per cent of Vietnamese exports to the US were made up of Chinese components in 2022. Chinese exports to Southeast Asia have surged this year. China is assessing the US-Vietnam deal and warned against clauses harming its business interests. China is speeding up approving rate earth exports to European companies. Trump scores a major economic policy victory: The White House passed Trump's $3.4 trillion tax cut and spending bill, which is positive for silver on deficit concerns. Dollar Index and yields: US Dollar Index fell to a fresh cycle low of 96.377, lowest since February 2022, on July 1 on Fed rate cut notions. The index, at the time of writing, was hovering around 97.14, up nearly 0.5 per cent on the day as US data boosted the Greenback. US 10-year yields, which slumped to 4.18 per cent on July 1, lowest since May, rose for the third straight day, and was noted at 4.35 per cent, up nearly 2 per cent on the day, as July rate cut hopes faded on stronger than expected US job and ISM services report. Total known global silver ETF holdings at 773.283 MOz are at nearly 3-year high as holdings are up nearly 8 per cent year-to-date (Y-T-D). Silver Institute's deficit forecast: The Silver Institute sees the silver market registering a deficit of 117.60 MOz in 2025, which will be nearly 21 per cent smaller than the estimated 2024 deficit. Outlook: Positive surprise in the US, European and Chinese PMIs along with a somewhat encouraging US nonfarm payroll report will support the metal. Risk appetite is expected to be healthy unless tariff frictions come to the fore yet again. Positive ETF inflow is a crucial bullish factor. Silver is expected to rise to $40 level (₹117,000) in the coming weeks unless risk appetite gets impaired due to tariff issues.
Economic Times
03-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Tata Steel shares rally 5.5% in 2 days on China-fueled metals rally, upbeat UK business outlook
Shares of Tata Steel climbed as much as 1.7% on Thursday, extending a two-day rally to 5.5%, buoyed by firm global cues, a rebound in metal prices, and optimism surrounding the company's UK operations. ADVERTISEMENT The stock has surged over 7% in the past week and is up 21% in the last six months, even as it remains 4% lower on a one-year basis. Tata Steel shares rose over 3% on Wednesday, tracking a broader uptrend in global steel futures after improved factory data from China signaled a recovery in manufacturing output. That rally continued on Thursday as the stock touched an intraday high on the BSE. Wednesday's gains came after China's factory activity returned to expansion in June. Official PMI and Caixin PMI both showed the highest output readings since November 2024. This lifted global sentiment, with the most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rising 1.69% to 722.5 yuan ($100.81) per metric benchmark August contract on the Singapore Exchange rose 1.82% to $94.9 a ton. Steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also advanced, with rebar gaining 2.61%, hot-rolled coil up 2.24%, wire rod rising 1.03%, and stainless steel climbing 1.08%. Other Indian metal stocks also advanced on Thursday, buoyed by positive global cues. The Nifty Metal Index rose 0.8%, with NMDC, NALCO, Hindalco, and Jindal Stainless gaining between 1% and 2%. ADVERTISEMENT Investor sentiment was further lifted by comments from Tata Group Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran at the company's annual general meeting. Addressing shareholder queries, Chandrasekaran said Tata Steel's UK operations are expected to perform 'much better this year compared to last year — it will definitely be Ebitda-positive.' ADVERTISEMENT The company's UK business, which has historically weighed on profitability, is now expected to turn Ebitda-positive in the financial year 2025–26 (FY26), with potential for profitability in subsequent Steel's technical indicators continue to signal bullish momentum. The stock is trading above all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, pointing to sustained strength across short-term to long-term charts. ADVERTISEMENT The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 69.8, just shy of the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting strong buying interest. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 1.9 and remains above both the center and signal lines, reinforcing the ongoing bullish Steel shares have gained 8% over the past three months and 5% in the last month. ADVERTISEMENT Also read | Tata Steel gets show cause notice over input tax credit of Rs 1,000 cr availed during FY19-23 (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
03-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Tata Steel shares rally 5.5% in 2 days on China-fueled metals rally, upbeat UK business outlook
Live Events UK operations expected to turn around Technicals point to strength (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Shares of Tata Steel climbed as much as 1.7% on Thursday, extending a two-day rally to 5.5%, buoyed by firm global cues, a rebound in metal prices, and optimism surrounding the company's UK operations The stock has surged over 7% in the past week and is up 21% in the last six months, even as it remains 4% lower on a one-year basis. Tata Steel shares rose over 3% on Wednesday, tracking a broader uptrend in global steel futures after improved factory data from China signaled a recovery in manufacturing output. That rally continued on Thursday as the stock touched an intraday high on the gains came after China's factory activity returned to expansion in June. Official PMI and Caixin PMI both showed the highest output readings since November 2024. This lifted global sentiment, with the most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rising 1.69% to 722.5 yuan ($100.81) per metric benchmark August contract on the Singapore Exchange rose 1.82% to $94.9 a ton. Steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also advanced, with rebar gaining 2.61%, hot-rolled coil up 2.24%, wire rod rising 1.03%, and stainless steel climbing 1.08%.Other Indian metal stocks also advanced on Thursday, buoyed by positive global cues. The Nifty Metal Index rose 0.8%, with NMDC, NALCO, Hindalco, and Jindal Stainless gaining between 1% and 2%.Investor sentiment was further lifted by comments from Tata Group Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran at the company's annual general meeting. Addressing shareholder queries, Chandrasekaran said Tata Steel's UK operations are expected to perform 'much better this year compared to last year — it will definitely be Ebitda-positive.'The company's UK business, which has historically weighed on profitability, is now expected to turn Ebitda-positive in the financial year 2025–26 (FY26), with potential for profitability in subsequent Steel's technical indicators continue to signal bullish momentum. The stock is trading above all eight of its key simple moving averages, from the 5-day to the 200-day, pointing to sustained strength across short-term to long-term Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 69.8, just shy of the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting strong buying interest. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is at 1.9 and remains above both the center and signal lines, reinforcing the ongoing bullish Steel shares have gained 8% over the past three months and 5% in the last month.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
Business Recorder
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Iron ore futures rise on supply dip
SINGAPORE: Iron ore futures climbed on Wednesday as shipments from top exporters Australia and Brazil dropped, though persistent weakness in China's property market capped gains. The most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) traded 0.77% higher at 716 yuan ($99.91) a metric ton, as of 0357 GMT. The benchmark August iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was up 0.86% at $94 a ton. On the supply front, iron ore shipments from top producers Australia and Brazil have declined, and global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, broker Everbright Futures said in a note. Hot metal output, a gauge of iron ore demand, continued to increase month-on-month, Everbright said. China's factory activity returned to expansion in June, with official PMI and Caixin PMI data showing the highest output reading since November 2024. Still, resale home prices in China fell at a faster pace in June, while growth new home prices slowed, underscoring persistent weakness in the country's property market. Meanwhile, analysts at ANZ noted that a proposal by the China Iron & Steel Association to restrict exports of certain steel products could keep more supply within the country, potentially pressuring prices. Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE gained ground, with coking coal and coke up 0.92% and 0.72%, respectively. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed. Rebar rose 1.44%, hot-rolled coil gained 1.12%, wire rod inched 0.45% higher and stainless steel was up 1.04%.
Business Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Singapore's PMI rebounds to expansion territory in June amid improving regional activity
[SINGAPORE] Singapore's overall factory activity returned to expansion territory in June after two straight months of contraction, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) showed on Wednesday (Jul 2). The purchasing managers' index (PMI) expanded marginally last month, by 0.3 point to 50. A reading above 50 on the index indicates growth from the previous month, while one below 50 points to a contraction. Similarly, the linchpin electronics sector edged up 0.2 point from the previous month to record an expansion at 50.1 in June, after two straight months of contraction. SIPMM executive director Stephen Poh said: 'It is heartening to note that the manufacturing sector has reverted to an expansion going into the second half of the year, albeit trade uncertainties remain in the global economic environment.' However, he also acknowledged that local manufacturers are concerned about 'the rapidly shifting landscape of global trade policy and tariffs, resulting in supply chain fragmentation'. Selena Ling, chief economist at OCBC, said the improvements in Singapore's manufacturing and electronics PMIs suggest that 'market sentiments and business confidence levels have stabilised somewhat' since the April announcement of US reciprocal tariffs and the ensuing market volatility. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The June PMI readings illustrate a semblance of a return to some normalcy, likely underpinned by hopes' the US will strike more trade deals or truces, as it did with the UK and China, she added. However, she also pointed out that front-loading efforts 'may largely be spent' as the end of the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs approaches. 'There are some tentative signs that business momentum may cool in the coming months once the tariff realities kick in, and the 10 per cent universal tariffs look likely to stay intact.' UOB associate economist Jester Koh likewise said the June readings likely reflect 'better sentiment, driven by hopes of a durable trade and tariff de-escalation following the two-day US-China negotiations in London', as well as near-term front-loading momentum. But he warned that the payback from earlier front-loading could lead to a 'more protracted downturn' in manufacturing and trade activity in H2 2025, cushioned partly by less cyclical demand for data storage and spillover effects into consumer electronics. Though most remained in contraction, some regional economies picked up in June. China's official manufacturing PMI contracted for a third straight month, albeit at a slower pace, posting a reading of 49.7 in June compared to 49.5 in May. Surprisingly, the Caixin PMI, derived from smaller private manufacturers, rose to 50.4 from 48.3. Both South Korea and Malaysia remained in contraction territory despite improvements. South Korea's S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 in June from 47.7 in May, while that of Malaysia was 49.3 in June, up from 48.8 the month before. Taiwan's S&P Global manufacturing PMI, meanwhile, registered its steepest decline in one-and-a-half years – it slid to 47.2 in June, from 48.6 in May. Vietnam's S&P Global manufacturing PMI also fell in June, to 48.9 from 49.8 the previous month.
