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The Diplomat
08-07-2025
- Politics
- The Diplomat
A Small State's Limited Playbook: Cambodia Exploits Thailand's Weakness
The recent leaking of a phone conversation between the Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen marked an unexpected twist in the escalating border dispute between the two countries. Hun Sen's subsequent prediction that there would be a new Thai prime minister in 3 months and that he knows who it would be further exacerbated bilateral tensions. Days later, the Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office amidst a pending court case seeking her dismissal. A small state managed to inflict extraordinary repercussions on the domestic situation of its larger neighbor with a phone call. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra reasoned that Hun Sen leaked the recording in order to 'boost his popularity without regard for the impact on bilateral ties.' A poll by the National Institute of Development Administration found that most Thais hold a similar perspective. This assessment is reminiscent of regional media discussions about the role of domestic politics during the 2008-2011 conflict over the Preah Vihear temple, an eleventh-century Angkorian ruin perched on the two nations' disputed border. However, this latest development is best understood as a product of the asymmetry of power between Cambodia and its larger neighbors, and the lessons that the Cambodian government – and Hun Sen – learned from the Preah Vihear conflict. There are important differences between the 2008-2011 conflict and the current stand-off. First, the domestic political situation in Cambodia is much more stable today than in 2008. While domestic political competition was at its height during the Preah Vihear conflict, which ignited just prior to the 2008 national election, Cambodia has had no proper opposition party since the dissolution of the Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017. The ruling Cambodian People's Party has also since undergone a gradual leadership transition to a younger generation, which culminated in Hun Sen handing the prime ministership to his son Hun Manet in 2023. As a result, the government's recent actions should not be reduced to domestic political factors. Second, Cambodia and Thailand have forged a much closer economic relationship over the last decade. Bilateral trade amounted to just $1 billion in 2006; this rose to $4.29 billion in 2024, and the two nations have set an ambitious bilateral trade target of $15 billion by 2027. Similarly, in 2006, there were an estimated 180,000 Cambodian workers in Thailand. In 2024, this had risen to 1.2 million, according to Cambodian government estimates. Remittances from the 1.38 million Cambodian migrants working abroad amounted to $2.95 billion last year. What then explains Cambodia's – or Hun Sen's – willingness to jeopardize such a pivotal economic relationship? While the border issues faded from regional and international attention after 2011, the border has remained a top national security concern for the Cambodian government. Notably, the 2013 judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the Preah Vihear temple area, which granted the temple and its surrounding promontory to Cambodia, was never formally implemented. Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra denied accepting the court's decision and insisted on parliamentary approval of the ICJ judgment, which has not been passed to date. In an indication of the fragile situation at the border, Thai officials did not publicly discuss the possibility of reopening the border checkpoint at the Preah Vihear temple until last year. Negotiations over their overlapping claims area in the Gulf of Thailand resumed in January 2023, but this only reignited the dormant dispute over the island of Koh Kood in the Gulf of Thailand. Cambodia's willingness to jeopardize its economic relationship with Thailand over the border dispute needs to be viewed in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The invasion highlighted the vulnerability of small states with larger neighbors and their apparent dependence on international law for survival. Cambodia co-sponsored the United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions in 2022. Explaining Cambodia's decision, Hun Sen stated, 'If our neighbors did that to us, would we get angry? We must stand for the principle of law.' On June 15, the Cambodian government submitted an official letter to the ICJ asking it to resolve disputes over four areas of the border with Thailand. However, Thailand has rejected any ICJ involvement, saying that it would prefer to resolve the disputes bilaterally. Accordingly, the Cambodian government cannot solely rely on international law to manage the current dispute. A small state such as Cambodia has limited options for responding to a national security crisis. Even though the country has been increasing its annual military spending, the Thai military retains an overall advantage in relation to the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces. A small state with limited material capabilities thus might resort to an unconventional strategy, such as leaking a phone recording, to influence the trajectory of an escalating dispute. There was precedent for this strategy: leaking phone recordings has long been a mainstay of Hun Sen's approach to Cambodian domestic politics. To make sense of this strategy in the realm of foreign policy, it is important to consider an important lesson that the Cambodian leadership learned about its relationship with Thailand in the wake of Preah Vihear. This lesson concerned the risk that Thai domestic politics were highly sensitive to anything concerning the Cambodian border and could negatively impact Cambodia's security and economy. Up until the outbreak of the conflict in 2008, the Cambodian government was preoccupied with integrating into the global and regional economy and recovering from decades of conflict. After the Khmer Rouge surrendered at their last stronghold in the Preah Vihear area, the government turned its attention to preserving its cultural heritage in the 2000s. It submitted a letter to UNESCO proposing the temple as a World Heritage Site in January 2006. Pre-occupied with internal affairs, the Cambodian leadership might not have anticipated the extent to which Thai domestic politics would react negatively to UNESCO's decision to list the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site in July 2008. It also might not have anticipated that the inscription would touch off a border conflict, especially after joining Thailand in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1999. The Preah Vihear conflict demonstrated the considerable constraint that domestic politics imposed on the actions of the Thai government in its relations with Cambodia, particularly regarding the border. From this perspective, leaking the phone conversation could be a means of exploiting a key Thai weakness: the country's fractious domestic politics. It remains to be seen if this strategy will pay off or backfire for the small state, but it at least has shifted the focus of the discussion onto Thai domestic politics for now. Similarly, Cambodia's submission of an official letter to the ICJ shifts the attention to the Thai side, and whether it plans to adhere to international law. Whether or not all of this works out remains to be seen, but it's a sign that, confronted with limited resources, a small state might choose to deploy unconventional strategies.
Radio Free Asia
07-07-2025
- Politics
- Radio Free Asia
Proposed law would give Cambodia's government power to revoke citizenship
A proposed amendment to Cambodia's constitution would allow the government to revoke the citizenship of Cambodian dissidents — a step that critics say would suppress internal dissent and eliminate political competition. Hun Sen, the former Cambodian prime minister who now leads the country's Senate, has framed the legislation as part of a call for public unity amid a border dispute with neighboring Thailand. 'There may be a need to amend the constitution again,' he said in a speech on June 27. 'I've instructed the Justice Minister to study the possibility of revoking citizenship from Cambodians who side with foreign nations to harm our country.' Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand spiked in recent weeks, resulting in a deadly shooting incident and closures at the border and a political fracas that contributed to a Thai court suspending the country's prime minister. Cambodia's legislature is expected to take up the citizenship measure on July 11. Cambodia's Constitutional Council affirmed the proposed amendment's legality on July 2. But Eng Chhai Eang, vice president of the pro-democracy Cambodia National Rescue Party, said that Cambodia has no law that allows for the revocation of birthright citizenship. 'This is something granted by nature,' he said. 'Even if a Khmer child is born abroad to Khmer parents, they automatically hold citizenship. Trying to undo that is absurd. I see this as a manipulative political strategy.' Article 33 of the Cambodian constitution says that 'no Khmer citizen shall be deprived of their nationality, exiled, or extradited to another country except through mutual agreement. Khmer citizens living abroad are protected by the state. The acquisition of Cambodian nationality is determined by law.' It's not the first time that Cambodian dissidents have faced threats to their citizenship. In 2019, the government revoked the passports of at least 30 dissidents who pushed for democracy and criticized the ruling Hun family. Vann Dara, a former provincial leader now living in exile in Australia, told RFA that losing her passport in 2020 has left her stateless and unprotected, unable to travel or receive support from any government. ' I've never done anything to harm my country. I only helped the people,' she said. 'I didn't cut down forests, sell land, gems, or minerals. Yet Hun Sen hunts me down, abuses and arrests us without fault, and even strips us of citizenship and passports.'
The Star
09-06-2025
- Business
- The Star
Comment: What can Cambodia offer the US ahead of third round of tariff negotiations?
PHNOM PENH: As Cambodia and the US prepare for a potential third round of negotiations regarding the heavy tariffs imposed on Cambodian goods, the stakes could not be higher for the Cambodian economy. The current situation — where the US maintains a 49% tariff on a broad range of Cambodian exports — is unsustainable for a developing country that relies heavily on international trade. This trade barrier threatens not only Cambodia's economic stability but also its attractiveness as a regional investment destination. The second round of negotiations ended without a concrete agreement, leaving both sides with open expectations and diplomatic uncertainty. As the third round approaches, Cambodia must reconsider its approach and think strategically about what it can offer the US — both as a gesture of goodwill and as a calculated move to regain economic advantage. The US remains one of Cambodia's most important export markets. In 2023 alone, the Kingdom exported over $8 billion worth of goods to the US, primarily garments, footwear and travel goods. With the new tariffs, many of these goods are now subject to nearly 49% import tax — crippling their competitiveness in the US market. Even more concerning is the broader implication: Chinese investors and manufacturers, who had shifted to Cambodia in previous years to avoid US-China trade disputes, are now beginning to pull out. If Chinese businesspeople, who have been instrumental in building Cambodia's manufacturing base, decide to relocate to Vietnam, Indonesia or Bangladesh, the long-term damage to Cambodia's industrial ecosystem could be devastating. It is clear that without a breakthrough in negotiations, Cambodia risks economic isolation and a significant loss in employment opportunities, foreign direct investment, and GDP growth. This is why Cambodia must consider making the first concession. In diplomacy, small symbolic actions can unlock large strategic benefits. Cambodia must recognise that the US is not only negotiating as an economic power but also as a political actor with global norms and values. The deterioration of Cambodia-US relations began in 2017, when the Cambodian government accused the US of supporting a 'colour revolution' and took a number of aggressive actions against the opposition, particularly the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). Since then, several high-profile political activists with alleged ties to the United States have been arrested or exiled. To move forward, Cambodia could consider making a political goodwill gesture before the third round of talks. For example, the early or conditional release of certain political prisoners — particularly those with clear connections to US institutions or civil society organisations — could demonstrate a spirit of compromise. This would not only help repair trust but also provide the US with a tangible outcome to present to its own domestic stakeholders, especially members of Congress who remain critical of Cambodia's human rights record. The US has long maintained a dual-track policy toward Cambodia: one based on economic engagement and another focused on human rights and democratic governance. Unlike China, the US does not provide aid or investment without conditions. The US seeks reciprocity in political values — freedom of expression, multiparty democracy and rule of law. Thus, even as Cambodia hopes for economic relief, it must understand that US negotiators are likely to push for more than trade concessions. They may seek reassurances on political reform, media freedom, and the reopening of democratic space. Pre-emptively addressing these concerns could help create a more favourable environment for the third round of discussions. It is important for Cambodian leaders to see beyond short-term national pride and recognise the broader geostrategic context. While China remains Cambodia's closest political and economic ally, China itself is now looking for ways to stabilise its relationship with the US, especially in the trade sector. China's priority is to show that it can be a strong and credible actor on the global stage. In this context, Cambodia must also demonstrate that it is a 'qualified friend' — not one that simply asks for help, but one that brings value to the relationship. China wants to support strong, stable and strategically useful allies. If Cambodia appears diplomatically isolated or economically weak, even China's support may become more conditional. The best way for Cambodia to prove its strength is to show that it can negotiate effectively with global powers like the US while maintaining its own dignity and national interests. Cambodia's leadership has repeatedly emphasised national sovereignty and pride, which are valid principles. But diplomacy requires pragmatism. By taking a calculated step toward political openness, Cambodia stands to gain not only economic relief but also renewed credibility on the world stage. This is not about surrendering national dignity — it is about safeguarding Cambodia's economic future. The third round of negotiations offers a narrow but real window of opportunity. Cambodia should walk into that room not as a passive petitioner, but as a proactive and responsible partner ready to contribute to a shared solution. The US is not asking Cambodia to become its ally against China. What it wants is clear: respect for democratic norms, transparent governance and political accountability. Offering the first concession — on Cambodia's own terms — could redefine the trajectory of bilateral relations for the better. All in all, Cambodia is at a crossroads. The current trade impasse with the US must be resolved not through confrontation, but through strategic compromise. A well-thought-out gesture — particularly one rooted in political goodwill — could unlock immense economic and diplomatic benefits. Now is the time for courage, not defiance. By showing a willingness to engage constructively, Cambodia can not only win favour in Washington but also retain the respect and support of its friend in Beijing. This delicate balancing act requires wisdom, timing and a clear understanding of what Cambodia must give in order to get what it truly needs. - The Phnom Penh Post/ANN *** Seun Sam is a policy analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia. The views and opinions expressed are his own.
The Star
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Guilty of inciting social unrest
A Court here yesterday convicted a prominent opposition politician of incitement and sentenced him to four years in prison, in the latest legal move to stifle criticism of the government of Prime Minister Hun Manet. Rong Chhun (pic), a top advisor to the newly formed Nation Power Party, was found guilty of inciting social unrest related to his political activity for meeting with villagers displaced by government construction projects, including the new Phnom Penh International Airport. In addition to the jail term, he was barred from running for office and from voting. The 56-year-old had denied the incitement charge, saying all he did was post photos of himself with the villagers and comments on Facebook. 'This is not a law enforcement issue,' Rong Chhun said after the verdict. 'It's about politics.' He remains free for a month with the opportunity to file an appeal during that time and said he would do so. Incitement allegations are frequently used by authorities in Cambodia against opponents, and Rong Chhun was already sentenced to two years in prison for incitement in 2021 on accusations he spread false information about Cambodia's border with Vietnam after meeting with farmers in the area. He was released later the same year by an appeals court. Cambodia's government has long been accused of using the judicial system to persecute critics and political opponents. The government insists it promotes the rule of law under an electoral democracy, but political parties seen as mounting strong challenges to the ruling Cambodian People's Party have been dissolved by the courts or had their leaders jailed or harassed. Under autocratic former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who held power for almost four decades, Cambodia was widely criticized for human rights abuses that included suppression of freedom of speech and association. He was succeeded in August 2023 by his American-educated son, Hun Manet, but there have been few signs of political liberalization. Late last year, the president of the Nation Power Party, Sun Chanthy, was himself convicted of inciting social disorder and sentenced to two years in prison. Sun Chanthy had been a top leader of the former Cambodia National Rescue Party, which had been expected to present a strong challenge to Hun Sen's ruling party in 2018 elections, but was dissolved by the high court as part of a sweeping crackdown on opposition. Sun Chanthy then joined the Candlelight Party, the successor to the Cambodia National Rescue Party, but it in turn was barred from competing in the 2023 general election on a technicality. He then helped form the Nation Power Party at the end of 2023, along with Rong Chhun and others. After his conviction yesterday, Rong Chhun said he was not surprised by the verdict and vowed to continue 'actively to protect the constitution.' 'We must hold to a path that is based on the truth,' he said. He urged members of the Nation Power Party to stay the course while he serves his sentence. 'Let's not lose heart,' he said. 'We must all be strong.' — AP
The Star
05-05-2025
- Politics
- The Star
Cambodian court convicts prominent politician of incitement in latest legal move to stifle opponents
Rong Chhun former vice president of the Candlelight Party. - Photo: Phnom Penh Post/ANN PHNOM PENH, Cambodia (AP): A Cambodian court on Monday convicted a prominent opposition politician of incitement and sentenced him to four years in prison, in the latest legal move to stifle criticism of the government of Prime Minister Hun Manet. Rong Chhun, a top advisor to the newly formed Nation Power Party, was found guilty of inciting social unrest related to his political activity for meeting with villagers displaced by government construction projects, including the new Phnom Penh International Airport. In addition to the prison term, he was barred from running for office and from voting. The 56-year-old had denied the incitement charge, saying all he did was post photos of himself with the villagers and comments on Facebook. "This is not a law enforcement issue,' Rong Chhun told reporters after the verdict. "It's about politics." He remains free for a month with the opportunity to file an appeal during that time and said he would do so. The US Embassy, which has been critical of Cambodia's human rights record, had an observer at the hearing but did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Incitement allegations are frequently used by authorities in Cambodia against opponents. Rong Chhun was already sentenced to two years for incitement in 2021, on accusations he spread false information about Cambodia's border with Vietnam after meeting with farmers in the area. He was released later the same year by an appeals court. Cambodia's government has long been accused of using the judicial system to persecute critics and political opponents. It insists it promotes the rule of law under an electoral democracy, but political parties seen as mounting strong challenges to the ruling Cambodian People's Party have been dissolved by the courts or had their leaders jailed or harassed. Under almost four decades of autocratic former Prime Minister Hun Sen, Cambodia was widely criticized for human rights abuses that included suppression of freedom of speech and association. He was succeeded in August 2023 by his American-educated son, Hun Manet, but there have been few signs of political liberalization. Late last year, the president of the Nation Power Party, Sun Chanthy, was himself convicted of inciting social disorder and sentenced to two years. Sun Chanthy had been a top leader of the former Cambodia National Rescue Party, which had been expected to present a strong challenge to Hun Sen's ruling party in 2018 elections, but was dissolved by the high court as part of a sweeping crackdown on opposition. Sun Chanthy then joined the Candlelight Party, the successor to the Cambodia National Rescue Party, but it in turn was barred from competing in the 2023 general election on a technicality. He then helped form the Nation Power Party at the end of 2023, along with Rong Chhun and others. After his conviction Monday, Rong Chhun said he was not surprised by the verdict and vowed to continue "actively to protect the constitution.' "We must hold to a path that is based on the truth,' he said. He urged members of the Nation Power Party to stay the course while he serves his sentence. "Let's not lose heart,' he said. "We must all be strong.' -- Rising reported from Bangkok for AP
