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Malay Mail
02-07-2025
- Politics
- Malay Mail
When the facts change, the Asean Regional Forum has to change along on Cambodia–Thai conflict — Phar Kim Beng
JULY 2 — As the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) approaches on July 9–11 in Kuala Lumpur, the political earthquake shaking Thailand cannot be ignored—yet must not be mishandled. The recent leaked audio of a confidential exchange between Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the President of the Cambodian Senate has precipitated a constitutional suspension of the Thai premiership. With dynastic overtones, cross-border political intrigue, and rising nationalist sentiments in both Thailand and Cambodia, the situation has escalated into one of the region's most diplomatically combustible dilemmas. Yet ARF is neither a court of arbitration nor a chamber of political therapy. It is a delicate forum of preventive diplomacy. And when the facts on the ground shift rapidly—especially toward domestic instability—its role must evolve not in ambition but in restraint. The political earthquake in Thailand Thailand is now caught in a perfect political storm. Prime Minister Paetongtarn, already suffering from plummeting approval ratings—sliding from over 30% to just under 10% within months—now finds herself suspended by Thailand's Constitutional Court. The reason? A leaked and highly controversial phone conversation with the Cambodian Senate President, allegedly involving mutual cooperation on border development projects without prior clearance from the Thai military or foreign ministry. Such moves, interpreted as bypassing national institutions, have fueled accusations of impropriety and even subversion. Her suspension could very well mark the final straw for a government long viewed with skepticism by Thailand's entrenched military establishment. The generals, many of whom have maintained links to former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha, are now poised to either directly intervene or influence a political shift through the courts or parliament. ARF cannot meddle in a moving target Under such conditions, the ARF cannot—and must not—seek to resolve this conflict. Asean's principle of non-interference, already strained in past decades, would collapse entirely if the ARF were seen as taking sides in what is clearly a politically and dynastically sensitive domestic crisis with cross-border echoes. The risk of importing the Paetongtarn–Thaksin family saga, with all its dynastic overtones and rivalries with the Hun Sen clan in Cambodia, into the ARF is unacceptable. These family legacies are soaked in historical memory, political vendettas, and patronage networks—none of which lend themselves to multilateral problem-solving. To open the ARF floor to such disputes would not only derail the scheduled agenda but risk making Malaysia, as Group Chair, appear either partisan or ineffectual. No appetite among great powers Moreover, the great powers have no appetite for this kind of dispute. The United States, now represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would likely be irritated by the spectacle of infighting and regional paralysis. Rubio, an institutional hawk and long-time Asean skeptic, may well walk away from the Forum with an even lower view of its utility. China, meanwhile, views mainland Southeast Asia as its strategic backyard. Any hint of US meddling or Asean drift could be met with an intensification of Beijing's charm offensives or coercive tactics. China's posture is clear: Southeast Asia must not become a zone of instability, particularly at a time of tense trade negotiations and power projection against the US presence in the Indo-Pacific. In this environment, the ARF becoming entangled in Thai–Cambodian crossfire would leave the grouping—and Malaysia's chairmanship—looking vulnerable. Worse, it may embolden fringe players and opportunists in the region who thrive on diplomatic confusion. Thailand's currently suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is seen speaking to administrative officials at the 12th Infantry Regiment, 3rd Infantry Battalion (Fort Surasinghanat) of a Thailand-Cambodia border town of Aranyaprathet district. — Reuters pic Domestic theatre should not disrupt Asean stage What we are seeing between Thailand and Cambodia is a classic case of domestic theatre bleeding into regional diplomacy. Both sides have politically embattled leaders looking to shore up legitimacy by stoking nationalist flames. The Cambodian government, under the indirect rule of the Hun family, is increasingly confident and assertive. Meanwhile, Paetongtarn's camp may have overplayed its hand, reaching across borders for diplomatic traction just as her domestic political base was crumbling. The ARF cannot afford to serve as a stage for such performances. It would risk derailing the July 9–11 proceedings, shifting focus from key priorities such as regional economic integration, maritime security, cyber cooperation, and energy connectivity. Malaysia, as Group Chair, must avoid becoming collateral damage in this dangerous political theatre. Strategic autonomy must be preserved This is precisely the moment for Asean—and Malaysia—to demonstrate strategic autonomy. Not the kind that aligns blindly with Washington or Beijing, but one that insists on the sanctity of multilateral platforms from being weaponized by domestic political turbulence. We are no one's pooch to be yanked at will. We are not pawns in dynastic chess games. Strategic autonomy means that we refuse to allow our collective institutions—like the ARF—to become battlegrounds for unresolved domestic power struggles, no matter how entangled they may be with regional sensitivities. Malaysia must signal clearly: while we will not sweep tensions under the carpet, we will also not allow them to hijack the proceedings. An acknowledgment of the issue may be warranted in private side meetings—but not a public intervention, not a multilateral discussion, and certainly not a resolution attempt that could backfire. Trade negotiations at stake Equally important is the economic context. With Asean member states engaged in delicate trade negotiations ahead of mid-July regional summits—including the Asean Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) and moves to deepen the Asean Plus frameworks—regional stability is paramount. Any distraction caused by the Thai–Cambodian conflict would undermine investor confidence and derail months of quiet, technical diplomacy. The ARF, if it were to allow bilateral disputes to monopolize the forum, would become not a platform for integration, but a cautionary tale of regional dysfunction. A chair must not invite failure Malaysia must avoid importing a fault line into its chairmanship. Allowing a public dispute between Thai and Cambodian representatives—likely in their native tongues and charged with emotion—to erupt on the ARF stage would humiliate the Chair, derail the agenda, and expose Asean to ridicule. When the facts change, ARF must adapt—but not by doing more than it is designed for. It must adapt by narrowing its bandwidth, focusing its agenda, and refusing to be destabilized by events outside its purview. Diplomacy is about timing, tact, and knowing when not to act. In this case, the most strategic move is one of calibrated silence. Acknowledge the tremors. Offer informal support. But above all, keep ARF on track. That is the only way Malaysia can protect both the forum and its own credibility as Asean's convening power in this volatile moment. * This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
Times of Oman
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Times of Oman
Thailand: Prime Minister suspended over leaked Cambodia call
Bangkok: The Prime Minister of Thailand, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was suspended by the country's constitutional court on Tuesday pending an investigation into a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician. The judges voted 7 to 2 to suspend the 38-year-old prime minister after accepting a petition from 36 senators accusing her of dishonesty and a breach of ethical standards. Why has Thailand's prime minister been suspended? Paetongtarn has faced growing dissatisfaction over her handling of a border dispute with neighbouring Cambodia, which saw a Cambodian soldier killed in a violent clash in May. During a leaked June 15 phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, Paetongtarn appeared to criticize an outspoken Thai army commander — considered a red line in a country where the military has significant clout. Despite apologizing and insisting that her remarks were a negotiating tactic, thousands of conservative, nationalist-leaning protesters rallied in central Bangkok on Saturday to demand the prime minister's resignation. "I only thought about what to do to avoid troubles, what to do to avoid armed confrontation, for the soldiers not to suffer any loss," she said. "I wouldn't be able to accept it if I said something with the other leader that could lead to negative consequences." Paetongtarn first has 15 days in which to provide evidence to the constitutional court to support her defense, in which time Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit is expected to become acting prime minister. "Government work doesn't stop, there is no problem," Tourism Minister and Pheu Thai Party Secretary-General Sorawong Thienthong told the Reuters news agency. "Suriya will become caretaker prime minister." Thai government under pressure However, the government has been left with only a wafer-thin majority after Paetongtarn's leaked call saw a key party abandon her coalition and threaten a no-confidence vote. Earlier on Tuesday, King Maha Vajiralongkorn endorsed cabinet reshuffle which should have seen Paetongtarn assume the position of culture minister in addition to prime minister. But it's unclear if she will be able to be sworn into the role during her suspension. She said on Monday that she would accept and follow the process but she didn't want to see her work interrupted. It's not the first time that Paetongtarn has faced allegations over ethics breaches; she is currently also under investigation by Thailand's Office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission in a separate case. The Constitutional Court last year removed her predecessor over a breach of ethics while her father, the influential former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was deposed in a military coup in 2006. Also on Tuesday, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry insisted that would not comment on an "internal" Thai affair but said: "As a friendly neighbour, we hope that Thailand will maintain stability and development."
Bangkok Post
01-07-2025
- Politics
- Bangkok Post
Democrat quits over PM's phone call
Divisions within the Democrat Party have resurfaced with LCdr Sutham Rahong resigning as secretary to the natural resources and environment minister over the party's decision to remain with the embattled government. LCdr Sutham's resignation as secretary to Natural Resources and Environment Minister Chalermchai Sri-on, who leads the Democrats, was recently published in the Royal Gazette. He had served in the role since Nov 5 last year. However, LCdr Sutham tendered his resignation, effective June 19, in accordance with Section 10 (2) of the Political Officials Act B.E. 2535 (1992). His resignation came after he voted with a minority bloc within the Democrat Party in favour of withdrawing from the coalition government following the highly controversial audio leak involving Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, which raised ethical questions about the premier. LCdr Sutham's resignation highlights growing instability within the Democrat Party as it struggles with internal divisions and mounting political challenges.
