Latest news with #CameronBrandt
Economic Times
30-06-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Dollar dip and global jitters create sweet spot for EMs: Cameron Brandt
"While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows," says Cameron Brandt, EPFR Global. ADVERTISEMENT It clearly seems like markets think that what we had last month in terms of all the geopolitical tensions, the start of the month seems to be the end of it all and all is hunky dory, at least going by the price action. Cameron Brandt: Well, we do seem to be in a period which fits the definition of that they frequently use for the weather in New England, which is if you do not like it, wait a couple of hours. But it is very much week to week at the moment certainly in terms of flows. And sentiment is very-very quick to change. I would characterise it as somewhat brittle. That said, there has definitely been a modest rotation in favour of emerging markets. We are seeing much stronger flows into the diversified gem funds and in a market where frankly most people are at least trying to work out what safe looks like. It has not been a bad period for India. While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows. What is importance of the dollar index in the overall scheme of things? I mean, in the long term if dollar remains below 100, could that really open the floodgate of further inflows into emerging markets? Cameron Brandt: Well, certainly, the health of the dollar and the impact that US monetary and fiscal policy are going to have is something that people are paying a lot of attention to. I heard some discussion before I joined you about indexes here hitting or testing record highs. But what we have been seeing in the flows is while there is a fairly strong support for US equity markets, especially through the diversified funds, it is not a particularly strong conviction. Allocations towards the US have been trending downwards recently. ADVERTISEMENT We have noticed that foreign domicile US equity and bond funds have lost a lot of momentum and have even seen periods of outflows. So, the dollar index is definitely something to watch. Sentiment towards the US is not in a particularly strong place, especially given what you might expect in an uncertain world where people would historically be pivoting to the US. So, just to connect the dots here, if you look at the flows, flows normally come to emerging markets when there is weakness in the dollar index and when there is weakness in the local markets which is the US market, the European market. We are staring at a situation where dollar is weak and US markets are strong. Is that a good enough setup for emerging markets to invite flows or it is a matter of time flows will start going back to America? Cameron Brandt: I think that the strength of the US market certainly does not feel terribly strong to me despite the lofty numbers. Some of the key indexes and we have been seeing, as I said, a modest but appreciable rotation towards emerging markets in recent weeks. ADVERTISEMENT So, in as much as anything is certain at the moment which is almost nothing, I do think that emerging markets are getting a closer and more positive look again. There is certainly a feeling that the dollar index is going to remain under pressure. If the tax bill goes through, we are looking at another tailwind for deficits here. So, I do not think you are going to see sort of full-on shifts, that just is not sort of the pattern we have been seeing in flows. But I certainly think that people are going to start to add to their emerging markets exposure during the summer. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Time of India
30-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Dollar dip and global jitters create sweet spot for EMs: Cameron Brandt
"While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows," says Cameron Brandt , EPFR Global . It clearly seems like markets think that what we had last month in terms of all the geopolitical tensions , the start of the month seems to be the end of it all and all is hunky dory, at least going by the price action. Cameron Brandt: Well, we do seem to be in a period which fits the definition of that they frequently use for the weather in New England, which is if you do not like it, wait a couple of hours. But it is very much week to week at the moment certainly in terms of flows. And sentiment is very-very quick to change. I would characterise it as somewhat brittle. That said, there has definitely been a modest rotation in favour of emerging markets . We are seeing much stronger flows into the diversified gem funds and in a market where frankly most people are at least trying to work out what safe looks like. It has not been a bad period for India. While flows into dedicated India funds remains well below the kind of levels we saw in 2023-24, they have been consistently positive now for over two months and India's combination of defensive characteristics and still strong growth is definitely making it one of the more consistent destinations for mutual fund flows. Live Events What is importance of the dollar index in the overall scheme of things? I mean, in the long term if dollar remains below 100, could that really open the floodgate of further inflows into emerging markets? Cameron Brandt: Well, certainly, the health of the dollar and the impact that US monetary and fiscal policy are going to have is something that people are paying a lot of attention to. I heard some discussion before I joined you about indexes here hitting or testing record highs. But what we have been seeing in the flows is while there is a fairly strong support for US equity markets , especially through the diversified funds, it is not a particularly strong conviction. Allocations towards the US have been trending downwards recently. We have noticed that foreign domicile US equity and bond funds have lost a lot of momentum and have even seen periods of outflows. So, the dollar index is definitely something to watch. Sentiment towards the US is not in a particularly strong place, especially given what you might expect in an uncertain world where people would historically be pivoting to the US. So, just to connect the dots here, if you look at the flows, flows normally come to emerging markets when there is weakness in the dollar index and when there is weakness in the local markets which is the US market, the European market. We are staring at a situation where dollar is weak and US markets are strong. Is that a good enough setup for emerging markets to invite flows or it is a matter of time flows will start going back to America? Cameron Brandt: I think that the strength of the US market certainly does not feel terribly strong to me despite the lofty numbers. Some of the key indexes and we have been seeing, as I said, a modest but appreciable rotation towards emerging markets in recent weeks. So, in as much as anything is certain at the moment which is almost nothing, I do think that emerging markets are getting a closer and more positive look again. There is certainly a feeling that the dollar index is going to remain under pressure. If the tax bill goes through, we are looking at another tailwind for deficits here. So, I do not think you are going to see sort of full-on shifts, that just is not sort of the pattern we have been seeing in flows. But I certainly think that people are going to start to add to their emerging markets exposure during the summer.
Economic Times
09-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Geopolitical tensions not yet a red flag for investors: Cameron Brandt
So, as I said earlier, people will certainly be watching, but in the short run, frankly, the fact that India's oil bill is going to get much cheaper, that seems to be where it is heading, will provide a pretty heavy counterweight to any geopolitical uncertainty. Given the current US administration, never say never. But I actually think that a lot of investors who used President Trump's first term as a template have certainly been expecting that after the sound and fury a somewhat more palatable midpoint would be reached. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads "Historically, things have to get pretty bad before investors really get chased out of a market and while there will certainly be more caution until this gets resolved, I do not think it is going to completely reverse the flows that sort of India funds and sort of Indian asset markets in general I have seen in recent weeks," says Cameron Brandt Diminished rather than derailed is what I would say. I have just been looking at the latest week's numbers and while flows into dedicated India funds are not quite as strong as they have been, they are still I have been picking up is that at least for the moment investors and fund managers are putting more weight on the benefits to India of much cheaper oil than they are on what is or was until the latest about regarded as you know historically, things have to get pretty bad before investors really get chased out of a market and while there will certainly be more caution until this gets resolved, I do not think it is going to completely reverse the flows that sort of India funds and sort of Indian asset markets in general I have seen in recent the current US administration, never say never. But I actually think that a lot of investors who used President Trump's first term as a template have certainly been expecting that after the sound and fury a somewhat more palatable midpoint would be have certainly seen fixed income investors recover risk appetite over the past three weeks. Equity investors are still being somewhat cautious. It is not clear how much damage has been done and how much that damage will influence earnings for the remainder of the year, but certainly when I look at flows to fixed income funds, junk bond funds, mortgage backed funds, bank loan funds, and indeed emerging markets bond funds, all of those are starting to see money again after a pretty sharp hiatus in early.I do not. You mentioned sort of the geopolitical complexities and the fact that there more actors than just India and the global financial markets have been living with a version of that now for three years. The situation in Ukraine also puts Turkey somewhat close to the action. Russia has gravitated to China for support. Europe and US are feeding arms to varying degrees into Ukraine. So, intensely as you and your viewers feel the current situation and it certainly, it is not that it could not get worse, but financial markets have been living with an equally contentious and indeed long running geopolitical event with some pretty big actors behind the main as I said earlier, people will certainly be watching, but in the short run, frankly, the fact that India's oil bill is going to get much cheaper, that seems to be where it is heading, will provide a pretty heavy counterweight to any geopolitical uncertainty.
Time of India
09-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Geopolitical tensions not yet a red flag for investors: Cameron Brandt
"Historically, things have to get pretty bad before investors really get chased out of a market and while there will certainly be more caution until this gets resolved, I do not think it is going to completely reverse the flows that sort of India funds and sort of Indian asset markets in general I have seen in recent weeks," says Cameron Brandt , EPFR Global . Like I was discussing with Prashant Khemka from White Oak Capital as if there was uncertainty in the world and now you have this situation between India and Pakistan going on. And we have known historically that money always moves in a relative fashion and that is why I guess for the last one-month India was seeing inflows come in because there were a lot of things which were going right. Do you think now with the India-Pakistan situation that gets derailed at least in the near term? Cameron Brandt: Diminished rather than derailed is what I would say. I have just been looking at the latest week's numbers and while flows into dedicated India funds are not quite as strong as they have been, they are still positive. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo What I have been picking up is that at least for the moment investors and fund managers are putting more weight on the benefits to India of much cheaper oil than they are on what is or was until the latest about regarded as you know spat. But historically, things have to get pretty bad before investors really get chased out of a market and while there will certainly be more caution until this gets resolved, I do not think it is going to completely reverse the flows that sort of India funds and sort of Indian asset markets in general I have seen in recent weeks. Live Events But other fact is that especially on the trade talks, we have seen that at least getting started now because just yesterday a trade deal between US and UK has been announced. There is a possibility that maybe EU and India and even China the talks will be on. Give us some sense that at least in this term where are we headed, is the worst behind us with respect to the tariff tantrum and what could be the next with respect to the market and the reaction. Cameron Brandt: Given the current US administration, never say never. But I actually think that a lot of investors who used President Trump's first term as a template have certainly been expecting that after the sound and fury a somewhat more palatable midpoint would be reached. We have certainly seen fixed income investors recover risk appetite over the past three weeks. Equity investors are still being somewhat cautious. It is not clear how much damage has been done and how much that damage will influence earnings for the remainder of the year, but certainly when I look at flows to fixed income funds, junk bond funds, mortgage backed funds, bank loan funds, and indeed emerging markets bond funds, all of those are starting to see money again after a pretty sharp hiatus in early. You can see how charged up and emotional things are out here in India right now. And more importantly, when it comes to India and Pakistan, there is so many other country dynamics. You have got Turkey, you have got the Middle East, you have got China, and you have got the US dynamics as well. For the last one month that India has been seeing inflows, it has also been somewhat of a tactical play India versus China. Do you think that will completely get reversed now? Cameron Brandt: I do not. You mentioned sort of the geopolitical complexities and the fact that there more actors than just India and Pakistan. But the global financial markets have been living with a version of that now for three years. The situation in Ukraine also puts Turkey somewhat close to the action. Russia has gravitated to China for support. Europe and US are feeding arms to varying degrees into Ukraine. So, intensely as you and your viewers feel the current situation and it certainly, it is not that it could not get worse, but financial markets have been living with an equally contentious and indeed long running geopolitical event with some pretty big actors behind the main protagonist. So, as I said earlier, people will certainly be watching, but in the short run, frankly, the fact that India's oil bill is going to get much cheaper, that seems to be where it is heading, will provide a pretty heavy counterweight to any geopolitical uncertainty.
Reuters
05-02-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Wall Street shows its 'bouncebackability': McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 5 (Reuters) - "Bouncebackability." This Britishism is usually associated with cliche-prone soccer managers trumpeting their teams' ability to respond to defeat. It's unlikely to find its way across the pond into the Wall Street crowd's lexicon, but it perfectly sums up the U.S. stock market's resilience to all the setbacks, shocks and everything else that's been thrown at it recently. And there have been a lot: U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff flip-flops, stretched valuations, extreme concentration in Big Tech and the DeepSeek -led turmoil that recently cast doubt on America's "exceptionalism" in the global AI arms race. Any one of those issues still has the potential to snowball, causing an avalanche of selling that could push U.S. equities into a correction or even bear-market territory. But Wall Street has become remarkably resilient since the 2022 rout, especially in the last six months. Just look at the artificial intelligence-fueled turmoil on Jan. 27, spurred by Chinese startup DeepSeek's revelation that it had developed a large language model that could achieve similar or better results than U.S.-developed LLMs at a fraction of the cost. By many measures, the market move was seismic. Nvidia shares fell 17%, slicing nearly $600 billion off the firm's market cap, the biggest one-day loss for any company ever. The value of the wider U.S. stock market fell by around $1 trillion. Drilling deeper, analysts at JPMorgan found that the rout in "long momentum" - essentially buying stocks that have been performing well recently, such as tech and AI shares - was a near "seven sigma" move, or seven times the standard deviation. It was the third-largest fall in 40 years for this trading strategy. But this epic move didn't crash the market. Rotation into other sectors accelerated, and around 70% of S&P 500-listed stocks ended the day higher, meaning the broader index fell only 1.45%. And buyers of tech stocks soon returned. U.S. equity funds attracted nearly $24 billion of inflows last week, technology fund inflows hit a 16-week high, and momentum funds attracted positive flows for a fifth-consecutive week, according to EPFR, the fund flows tracking firm. "Investors saw the DeepSeek-triggered selloff as an opportunity rather than an off-ramp," EPFR director of research Cameron Brandt wrote on Monday. "Fund flows ... suggest that many of those investors kept faith with their previous assumptions about AI." PANIC MODE? Remember "yenmageddon," the yen carry trade volatility of last August? The yen's sudden bounce from a 33-year low against the dollar sparked fears that investors would be forced to sell assets in other markets and countries to cover losses in their huge yen-funded carry trades. The yen's rally was extreme, on par with past financial crises, and the Nikkei's 12% fall on Aug. 5 was the biggest one-day drop since October 1987 and the second-largest on record. The panic, if it can be called that, spread. The S&P 500 lost 8% in two days. But it vanished quickly. The S&P 500 recouped its losses within two weeks, and the Nikkei did likewise within a month. So Wall Street has passed two big tests in the last six months, a period that included the U.S. presidential election and Trump's return to the White House. What explains the resilience? There's no one obvious answer. Investors are broadly bullish about Trump's economic agenda, the Fed still seems to be in easing mode (for now), the AI frenzy and U.S. exceptionalism narratives are still in play, and liquidity is plentiful. Perhaps one key driver is a well-worn one: the Fed put. Investors – many of whom have spent a good chunk of their working lives in the era of extraordinarily loose monetary policy – may still feel that, if it really comes down to it, the Fed will have their backs. There will be more pullbacks, and risks of a more prolonged downturn do seem to be growing. But for now, the rebounds keep coming. That's bouncebackability. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here.
