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Yahoo
21-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
America's terrible tariffs could actually be a huge win for Canada's economy
The whole thing about Canadians is that they're remarkably nice. Except lately, they haven't been feeling so warm and fuzzy, namely toward their neighbors to the south. Given everything that's going on — President Donald Trump's on-and-off trade war, his remarks about making the country the 51st state — Canada has a right to be annoyed with the United States. If your longtime bestie suddenly turned on you for no apparent reason, you'd be miffed, too. The US's sudden shift to frenemy status is going to cause some pain for Canada in the near term, especially as it stands to be a big economic loser from Trump's tariff tantrum. But ultimately, the turmoil may be a blessing in disguise for the Canucks. It's an opportunity for the country to step out of the star-spangled shadow and do its own thing. "It's really kind of a decoupling moment that is scary to watch in the short term. In the medium to long term, I have to say, it's an important wake-up call for Canada," says Matthew Holmes, the chief of public policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. "If I look back on this in 20 years, I hope to be able to say that this woke Canada up to the need to be a little more strategic and have a little bit more of its own agency in the economy and in the kind of economy we want." If the US doesn't want to be as good of friends anymore, fine, Canada can make new, better friends, anyway. The US and Canadian economies are deeply intertwined. A shared language, geographic proximity, and interconnected supply chains have made the countries convenient strategic partners for decades. Three-quarters of Canada's exports go to the United States, and nearly half of its imported goods come from the US. In 2024, Canada was the third-largest source of imports to the US, behind China and Mexico. Canada was also the top destination for exports from the US. Several of the two countries' biggest industries, including automotives and energy, are highly interwoven with one another. Trump's belligerent stance toward Canada has thrown the country for a loop. While Canada isn't subject to the 10% blanket tariffs he's placed on imports from other countries, he's targeted specific areas with import taxes, including 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, 25% tariffs on cars, 10% tariffs on potash and energy, and 25% tariffs on imports not compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal (formerly known as NAFTA). He's also planning to place a 50% tariff on copper come August. Most recently, the president threatened to put a 35% tariff on imports from Canada, blaming its retaliatory tariffs for the move, though it wasn't immediately clear what goods this would apply to. (The president says this is about fentanyl, though very little fentanyl comes to the US over the Canadian border.) A Trump administration official said in an email that they expected goods currently tariffed at 25% to go up to 35%, though no final decisions have been made by the president. Given Trump's persistent flip-flopping on tariffs, it's not clear whether they will actually take hold. This constant state of flux is making investors, at the very least, a bit more casual about the whole thing. The foreign exchange market, which tracks currency fluctuations, would indicate investors aren't too worried about it — the Canadian dollar isn't swinging based on Trump's pronouncements and has strengthened in recent months. "The market, so to speak, is seeing through a lot of this rabble-rousing," says Peter Morrow, an economist at the University of Toronto. The TACO trade — which is short for Trump Always Chickens Out and proxy for the idea that the president backs down from his most aggressive threats — is alive in the Great White North, too. Regardless, the American president's trade antics are taking a toll on Canada. It's the country most hurt by the US trade war so far — the US is second. An analysis from the Yale Budget Lab found Trump's tariffs and Canadian countermeasures could cause Canada's economy to shrink by 2.1% in the long term. The trade dispute increases the chances of a recession in Canada, and it threatens to increase inflation. It also injects an incredible amount of uncertainty into the economy. It's next to impossible for Canadian businesses to plan for the future when they have no idea what the guy in the White House is going to do, day-to-day. "It's not only the tariff wall; it's kind of a wall of uncertainty that's going up between the two countries," says Julian Karaguesian, a course lecturer in McGill University's economics department. "The immediate effect it's having in the short term is a cooling effect on business investment, which is the dynamic part of the economy." Canada isn't taking the economic punch in the face lying down. Canada's new prime minister, Mark Carney, and the Canadian public have taken a hockey-esque "elbows up" approach to the US. A "Buy Canadian" movement has swept the nation. Canadians are swapping out American-made products and groceries for national ones, guided by forums and apps that help distinguish locally made goods from their Yankee counterparts. Liquor stores have pulled American whiskeys off the shelves. Instead of going to McDonald's, Canadians are hitting up A&W. They're opening up the CBC Gem streaming app to see what's on there instead of Netflix. "Brand damage can last a long time. People won't remember in 10 years why they don't like Nike anymore, but they will still think slightly ill of it," a guy who runs a website called Shop Canadian Stuff tells me. He spoke with me on the condition of anonymity, because his job doesn't know about his nationalist side hustle. Evan Worman, one of the moderators of a Buy Canadian subreddit, tells me that Canadians redirecting their purchasing power is a loss for the US because it's opening people's eyes to the quality of non-American stuff. "People are going to find a lot of the products that are getting imported from Europe have better safety standards, have higher quality control than the US, and it doesn't come with all the hang-ups and baggage of buying from somebody who wants to invade you," he says. Worman is originally from Alaska and has lived in Canada for a decade. When people don't realize he's not Canadian, he doesn't correct them. "People are genuinely very angry at us right now," he says. The attacks are also fostering a willingness to reshape the domestic Canadian economy: Local governments are getting rid of internal trade barriers that have prevented goods from flowing between provinces. "We've had, for decades, stupid, unnecessary rules between Canadian provinces," says Dan Kelly, the president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. "There has been a resurgence of that among our members that are now saying, 'Well, wait a minute, if the US market is uncertain, then I'll send my goods to Ontario rather than to New York.'" The federal government says knocking down interprovincial trade restrictions could boost Canada's economy by $200 billion annually. Karaguesian believes that may be an overstatement, but that and the domestic focus are emblematic of a bigger shift. "The people that are running the United States are saying we don't really have any allies right now — we have adversaries, and we have countries we can tell what to do," making the emphasis on a more unified Canadian economy all the more important, he says. Also on the shorter-term front, many Canadian businesses that hadn't yet bothered to get compliant with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement because previous tariff levels were so negligible are getting their ducks in a row. Holmes, from the Chamber of Commerce, says that pre-Trump, only about half of the products crossing the border were USMCA compliant, because companies hadn't bothered to do the paperwork, but over the past four months, that's gotten to about two-thirds. He estimates that 90% of Canadian products should be compliant overall but notes that "it's just the work of getting it done." Canadian companies aren't rushing to move their operations to the US — which seems to be, in large part, Trump's goal in all of this — but they are adapting. "They're diversifying their sales, and they're diversifying their suppliers," says Patrick Gill, the vice president of the Business Data Lab at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. "And so they're looking to other international markets where Canada has established free trade agreements." The United States' attitudes have sent Canada seeking improved trade agreements and relations elsewhere, including Europe, Asia, and the Global South. In an attempt to wean itself off the US, Canada is looking to expand where it sources from and where it sells. But just how far to go is a difficult calculation. "Some people say that Canada should take the easy win, stay linked to the US, and just ride it out. And there's other people who say that the United States is not a reliable trading partner anymore, and that Canada should strengthen its relationships with other countries. But developing those other relationships is not easy," says Morrow, from the University of Toronto. Canada may be at its breaking point. Canadian political leaders and nationals feel like the US will never be satisfied, no matter how much ground they give. They find the 51st state jokes really offensive. And as much as the US-Canada relationship is extra strained right now, Canadians have long been skeptical of their larger neighbors. The US-Canada free trade agreement that predated NAFTA in the late 1980s was unpopular in Canada. Post-9/11, Canada resisted pressure from the US to join the Iraq invasion and chafed at President George W. Bush's "you're with us or against us" mentality. Some Canadian policymakers felt slighted by the Obama administration's attempts at pushing "Buy American" provisions and by the US-focused investments in the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act. The US and Canada have long grumbled over dairy and lumber. "Canada has a strong skepticism of the US even during the best of times," Morrow says, citing a quote from former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau (Justin's father), who said living next to the US was like "sleeping with an elephant — no matter how friendly or even-tempered is the beast, if one can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt." "The United States, for its entire history, has been a protectionist country except the time from the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 to the 9/11 attacks," Karaguesian says. "The United States was the biggest defender of free trade at the turn of the century because they were winning at that game." Trump says the US has "all the cards" in trade relations with Canada. The US certainly has more cards, but Canada isn't playing with an empty hand. The country has felt emboldened to strengthen trade relations with other partners, to revive its own manufacturing base, and to separate itself economically, culturally, and otherwise from the US. Kelly, from CFIB, compares Canada's retaliatory tariffs to economic chemotherapy — "you take the poison in order to try to fight the larger battle" — and adds that it says something that the country is so willing to dig in. "There is fairly significant resolve among Canadian businesses to press back," he says. To be sure, Trump's trade war is doing real damage to Canada — and, it should be said, to the US. Continuing the tit-for-tat won't mean mutually assured destruction for the neighboring countries, but it is one that will harm both, even if to different degrees. Canada's 40 million population can't replace the US's 340 million in terms of a consumer market. It will continue to depend on the US and, increasingly, others for commerce and trade. And the idea of a complete decoupling is quite unfathomable, unless Americans want to spend a ton more on energy and the entire North American auto sector is overhauled. At the moment, Canadians are fired up and holding their own. They don't appear to be poised to back down anytime soon — or to forget what's happening now. "Our elites need to wake up to the full nightmare of what Donald Trump's administration means in terms of trade," Karaguesian says. Much of the Canadian population already has — and years down the line, it could very well be to their country's benefit. Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy. Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
National Post
20-07-2025
- Business
- National Post
Premier's meeting in Ontario to tackle Trump tariff ultimatum and internal trade barriers
Tariffs and trade are top of the agenda as the country's premiers arrive in Ontario's cottage country for a three-day meeting that comes at a pivotal time for both Canada-U.S. and domestic relations. Article content The premiers' summer gathering in Muskoka will also feature a Tuesday meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney, as trade talks with the United States are expected to intensify. Article content Article content Article content Most of what the premiers are likely to discuss stems from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs: trade negotiations, the direct impact on industries such as steel and aluminum, the increased pushes to remove interprovincial trade barriers and speed up major infrastructure and natural resource projects to counteract the effects of tariffs, as well as Indigenous communities' concerns about them. Article content Article content Day 1 of the premiers' meeting Monday involves discussions with Indigenous leaders including the Assembly of First Nations, the Metis National Council and the Native Women's Association of Canada. Article content Carney himself is fresh off a meeting with hundreds of First Nations chiefs, many of whom have expressed concerns about their rights being sidelined as the prime minister looks to accelerate projects in the 'national interest.' Article content Some of the top priorities premiers are pushing include pipelines and mining in Ontario's Ring of Fire region, and chiefs have said that must not happen by governments skirting their duty to consult. Article content Article content Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has served for the past year as head of the Council of the Federation, is host of the meeting and said in a statement that protecting national interests will be top of mind. Article content Article content 'This meeting will be an opportunity to work together on how to respond to President Trump's latest threat and how we can unleash the full potential of Canada's economy,' Ford wrote. Article content Trump and Carney agreed in June at the G7 summit to try and reach a trade deal by July 21, but Trump recently moved that deadline to Aug. 1, while telling Carney he intends to impose 35 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Canada that same day. Article content Article content Carney has said Canada is trying to get an agreement on softwood lumber exports included in the negotiations with the United States. Article content British Columbia Premier David Eby said he intends to raise the issue and others of particular importance to B.C. at the meeting. Article content '(We want to) get access to the same level of attention, for example, on the softwood lumber as Ontario gets on the auto parts sector, (and) that we get the same amount of attention on capital projects as Alberta is currently getting in relation to their proposals,' Eby said last week in Victoria.
Yahoo
20-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trade top of mind as Canada's premiers are set to hold three-day meeting in Ontario
TORONTO — Tariffs and trade are top of the agenda as the country's premiers arrive in Ontario's cottage country for a three-day meeting that comes at a pivotal time for both Canada-U.S. and domestic relations. The premiers' summer gathering in Muskoka will also feature a Tuesday meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney, as trade talks with the United States are expected to intensify. Most of what the premiers are likely to discuss stems from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs: trade negotiations, the direct impact on industries such as steel and aluminum, the increased pushes to remove interprovincial trade barriers and speed up major infrastructure and natural resource projects to counteract the effects of tariffs, as well as Indigenous communities' concerns about them. Day 1 of the premiers' meeting involves discussions with Indigenous leaders including the Assembly of First Nations, the Métis National Council and the Native Women's Association of Canada. Carney himself is fresh off a meeting with hundreds of First Nations chiefs, many of whom have expressed concerns about their rights being sidelined as the prime minister looks to accelerate projects in the "national interest." Some of the top priorities premiers are pushing include pipelines and mining in Ontario's Ring of Fire region, and chiefs have said that must not happen by governments skirting their duty to consult. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has served for the past year as head of the Council of the Federation, is host of the meeting and said in a statement that protecting national interests will be top of mind. 'This meeting will be an opportunity to work together on how to respond to President Trump's latest threat and how we can unleash the full potential of Canada's economy," Ford wrote. Trump and Carney agreed in June at the G7 summit to try and reach a trade deal by July 21 but Trump recently moved that deadline to Aug. 1, while telling Carney he intends to impose 35 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Canada that same day. Carney has said Canada is trying to get an agreement on softwood lumber exports included in the negotiations with the United States. British Columbia Premier David Eby said he intends to raise the issue and others of particular importance to B.C. at the meeting. "(We want to) get access to the same level of attention, for example, on the softwood lumber as Ontario gets on the auto parts sector, (and) that we get the same amount of attention on capital projects as Alberta is currently getting in relation to their proposals," Eby said last week in Victoria. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been making a big push for new pipelines, but said during a press conference Friday that her focus would also be on premiers working together to address the tariff threat, including interprovincial trade. "I was really pleased to sign (a memorandum of understanding) with Doug Ford during the time he was here in during Stampede, and other provinces are working on those same kind of collaborative agreements," she said. "We need to do more to trade with each other, and I hope that that's the spirit of the discussion." Smith and Ford signed an MOU earlier this month to study new pipelines and rail lines between provinces, and both premiers also talked about wanting Carney to repeal a number of energy regulations like net-zero targets, the West Coast tanker ban and a proposed emissions cap. Ford has also taken a lead role on increasing interprovincial trade, signing MOUs with several provinces and enacting a law to remove all of Ontario's exceptions to free trade between the provinces and territories. Nova Scotia's Tim Houston is another premier banging the drum of interprovincial trade, saying the trade war is forcing action on it. "We're seeing the benefit of working together to respond to economic threats from the U.S. by breaking down internal trade barriers and opportunities to expand in other international markets," he wrote in a statement. Ford has said the premiers will also talk about emergency management, energy security, sovereignty and national security, health, and public safety. The premiers have also been pushing the federal government to reform bail laws and Carney said last week that legislation will be introduced in the fall and he expects to discuss the issue with the premiers on Tuesday. The premiers' summer meeting also signals a changing of the guard, with the role of chair of Council of the Federation moving between provinces annually. But after Ford is no longer chair, he's not expected to take too much of a back seat on all of the aforementioned issues. He is still premier of the most populous province, has built a strong relationship with Carney, often singing the prime minister's praises, and has done frequent American TV interviews making the case for increased trade over tariffs. Those network appearances, in part, earned him a nickname of "Captain Canada" — a persona he used to massive political benefit. Ford made the fight against tariffs and Trump the central part of his re-election campaign and voters returned him to government with a third consecutive majority. — With files from Wolfgang Depner in Victoria, Keith Doucette in Halifax and Lisa Johnson in Edmonton This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 20, 2025. Allison Jones, The Canadian Press 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Globe and Mail
15-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Carney to meet with cabinet to discuss response to Trump's 35% tariff threat
Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with his cabinet today for the first time since U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose steep new tariffs on Canada. Trump said in a letter to Carney last week that the United States will put a 35-per-cent tariff on Canadian goods starting Aug. 1. The White House says that new tariff wouldn't apply to goods that are compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade. Canada has yet to respond formally to the latest threat or to Trump's recent moves to impose lofty tariffs on copper imports and double existing levies on steel and aluminum. Carney and Trump agreed last month to work toward a new trade and security pact by July 21, but the U.S. president unilaterally pushed back the timeline to secure a deal. Carney is also set to meet with Canada's premiers next week.
New York Times
13-07-2025
- Entertainment
- New York Times
‘He's Nuts, Your Trump.' Canada Unites Against America.
Even here, among the sparsely populated lakes and thickly forested hills of the Laurentians, it is hard for an American not to feel the anger and incredulity President Trump has stoked with his tariffs, talk of a 51st state and offhand insults. Much of that may be lost on Americans buffeted by the ceaseless rush of crises and clashes generated by the president's agenda. But up here, in what used to be the most friendly neighbor a country could possibly ask for, the rage is tangible. Advertisers compete with claims that their products are 'proudly Canadian.' YouTube, news media and newsletters vigilantly follow the latest indignation. Polls track plummeting positive attitudes toward America and surging pride in Canada; the latest Pew poll found that 59 percent of Canadians now view the United States as the 'greatest threat' to their country. Bourbon and California wines are nowhere to be found, and Canadians are canceling trips south in droves. T-shirts display the latest anti-American slogan, whether 'Canada Is Not for Sale' or 'Elbows Up' — a classic hockey gesture that means 'stand up and fight back,' which the Canadian comedian Mike Myers famously (at least for Canadians) displayed on 'Saturday Night Live.' Even King Charles III, the British monarch and Canada's head of state, chimed in. Presiding over the opening of the Canadian Parliament and delivering the Speech from the Throne in May — only the third time a sovereign has done so and the first time in decades — Charles III was cautious not to assail Mr. Trump directly. But he offered clear support to Canada by quoting from the national anthem: 'The True North is indeed strong and free.' Here in the Laurentians, where I've been spending summers for much of my life, a French Canadian spots my District of Columbia license plate and offers, with a hint of sympathy, 'Il est fou, ton Trump!' ('He's nuts, your Trump!') Fortunately, Americans visiting Canada still seem to be generally regarded as fellow sufferers, not enemies. Not yet. It's all so sad. Because Washington's targeting of Canada is so unnecessary and so undeserved. A 'national emergency' that justifies huge tariff increases because Canada is purportedly failing to halt a 'tremendous' (Mr. Trump's word) flow of fentanyl and immigrants over the U.S.-Canada border? Only a minuscule fraction of the fentanyl seized in the United States, or of illegal crossings into the United States, come from Canada. But that doesn't stop Mr. Trump, or the Homeland Security secretary, Kristi Noem, or the F.B.I. director, Kash Patel, from trumpeting a northern border crisis. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
