Latest news with #CapitalAlphaPartners
CNBC
01-07-2025
- Business
- CNBC
The size of Trump's megabill will be the size of the debt, says Capital Alpha's James Lucier
James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners managing partner, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the One Big Beautiful Bill and the fiscal impact from it.
CNBC
08-06-2025
- Business
- CNBC
What a ‘revenge tax' in Trump's spending bill could mean for investors
As the Senate weighs President Donald Trump's multi-trillion-dollar spending package, a lesser-known provision tucked into the House-approved bill has pushback from Wall Street. The House measure, known as Section 899, would allow the U.S. to add a new tax of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments, including multinational companies operating in the U.S. Some analysts call the provision a "revenge tax" due to its wording. It would apply to foreign entities if their home country imposes "unfair foreign taxes" against U.S. companies, according to the bill. "Wall Street investors are shocked by [Section] 899 and apparently did not see it coming," James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners managing director, wrote in a June 5 analysis. More from Personal Finance:The average 401(k) savings rate hit a record high. See if you're on trackOn-time debt payments aren't a magic fix for your credit score. Here's whyWith 'above normal' hurricane forecasts, check your home insurance policy If enacted as written, the provision could have "significant implications for the asset management industry," including cross-border income earned by hedge funds, private equity funds and other entities, Ernst & Young wrote on June 2. Passive investment income could be subject to a higher U.S. withholding tax, as high as 50% in some cases, the company noted. Some analysts worry that could impact future investment. The Investment Company Institute, which represents the asset management industry serving individual investors, warned in a May 30 statement that the provision is "written in a manner that could limit foreign investment to the U.S." But with details pending as the Senate assesses the bill, many experts are still weighing the potential impact — including who could be affected. Here's what investors need to know about Section 899. As drafted, Section 899 would allow the U.S. to hike existing levies for countries with "unfair foreign taxes" by 5% per year, capped at 20%. Several kinds of tax fall under "unfair foreign taxes," according to the provision. Those include the undertaxed profits rule, which is associated with part of the global minimum tax negotiated by the Biden administration. The term would also apply to digital services taxes and diverted profits taxes, along with new levies that could arise, according to the bill. The second part of the measure would expand the so-called base erosion and anti-abuse tax, or BEAT, which aims to prevent corporations from shifting profits abroad to avoid taxes. "Basically, all businesses that are operating in the U.S. from a foreign headquarters will face that," said Daniel Bunn, president and CEO of the Tax Foundation. "It's pretty expansive." The retaliatory measures would apply to most wealthy countries from which the U.S. receives direct foreign investment, which could threaten or harm the U.S. economy, according to Bunn's analysis. Notably, the proposed taxes don't apply to U.S. Treasuries or portfolio interest, according to the bill. Section 899 still needs Senate approval, and it's unclear how the provision could change amid alarm from Wall Street. But the measure has "strong support" from others in the business community, and it's a "strong priority" for Republican House Ways and Means Committee members, Capital Alpha Partners' Lucier wrote. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Mo., first floated the idea in a May 2023 bill, and has been outspoken, along with other Republicans, against the global minimum tax. If enacted as drafted, Section 899 could raise an estimated $116 billion over 10 years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. That could help fund other priorities in Trump's mega-bill, and if removed, lawmakers may need to find the revenue elsewhere, Bunn said. However, House Ways and Means Republicans may ultimately want foreign countries to adjust their tax policies before the new tax is imposed. "If these countries withdraw these taxes and decide to behave, we will have achieved our goal," Smith said in a June 4 statement.
Yahoo
30-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Court Setbacks on Tariffs Rob Trump of a Prized Asset: Leverage
(Bloomberg) -- For months, President Donald Trump has boasted that his most sweeping tariffs amount to powerful leverage to win trade concessions from Beijing to Brussels. NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana's Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move Billionaire Steve Cohen Wants NY to Expand Taxpayer-Backed Ferry NY Wins Order Against US Funding Freeze in Congestion Fight His hand just got weaker. This week's ruling by the US Court of International Trade effectively tossed out the bulk of Trump's second-term tariffs — and, along with them, the president's best bargaining chips as he pressures other countries to lower their own levies and scrap other policies that constrain the sale of US goods abroad. A US appeals court has temporarily stayed that decision, though the initial ruling — along with a separate court order declaring some of Trump's levies unlawful — already sent a message ricocheting around the world that the president's tariff threats may now be more bark than bite. Trump's bargaining posture hinged on his ability to cause economic pain for trade partners if they didn't bend to his will. The credibility behind those threats has now been diminished, since it's no longer clear he can follow through on them. The legal blows — coming right as Trump pushed countries to cut deals before a July 9 deadline to ratchet up his so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs — immediately injected a fresh jolt of uncertainty into the trade talks. 'Foreign governments are under no pressure to do anything before July 9,' said James Lucier, managing director at the research firm Capital Alpha Partners. 'They are not going to care about a brief stay now. They are going to note the two negative rulings with every sign of more to come.' The Trump administration warned the trade court's ruling risks compromising ongoing talks, arguing in a legal filing dated Wednesday the decision 'jeopardizes ongoing negotiations with dozens of countries by severely constraining the President's leverage and undermining the premise of the ongoing negotiations.' Other Trump aides struck a far different tone as they sought to downplay the court decisions' impact. 'We've already heard from countries around the world today who will continue to negotiate in good faith with the United States so we can cut good trade deals on behalf of the American people,' White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday. Trade partners see the administration has appealed the ruling and 'is going to win,' and they 'know that the president reserves other tariff authorities,' Leavitt said. Despite the legal uncertainty, Trump has shown little evidence he's backing down, insisting Friday that China had reneged on some of its trade commitments and warning in a social media post, 'So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!' Trump grounded his speedy, maximalist tariffs on assertions that drug trafficking and trade imbalances represent national emergencies, warranting the use of special authorities under a 48-year-old law. While Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act offered speed, it lacked legal durability, at least in the eyes of the international trade court, whose ruling has sent Trump advisers searching for new options under other laws. GLOBAL REACT: Court Nixes Two-Thirds of Trump Levies For Now 'If you're a foreign government official, you see there will be tariffs and you probably do still negotiate, but I think you probably slow things down and don't put major offers or concessions on the table now. You wait to see how the US domestic side of things plays out for a bit,' said Peter Harrell, a lawyer who served as senior director for international economics in former President Joe Biden's White House. For countries that had been cowed into offering trade proposals, the immediate economic threat has diminished. Already, there are signs some countries feel emboldened. India now plans to insist the US abandon all of its reciprocal tariffs on the South Asian nation, even the 10% baseline Trump has repeatedly said will remain in place, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The country also will be pushing back on proposed rules of origin as it toughens its negotiating stance in the wake of Trump's legal defeats. And while Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is still embarking on a fourth round of talks with the US on a potential deal, he made clear the ruling will loom over negotiations. 'I will refrain from making any premature comments on the impact this may have on Japan-US negotiations,' Akazawa said Thursday. 'But we intend to thoroughly examine the content of the ruling and its implications and respond appropriately.' US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer acknowledged a legal cloud is now hanging over talks, telling CNBC on Friday that while negotiations are on track, it's important to get through appeals 'so our partners have a better understanding of the landing zone.' Many nations are likely to move carefully, mindful Trump's tariffs could be revived by another court or under other authorities. They're also unlikely to be willing to cross Trump — who as president has shown a willingness to wield obscure US laws and unilateral powers to secure policy changes or target his political opponents. Cautious Approach Other European nations signaled they were still working toward some kind of framework agreement with the US. European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic said Friday he held another call with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. 'There's a will from Europe to find an agreement,' on tariffs, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni told reporters in Kazakhstan. 'There is lots to discuss, we have to understand what we have to agree on. We'll probably have to find a framework agreement first and then drill into the detail. But this is a responsibility of the Commission.' Trump had lowered most of his so-called reciprocal tariffs to 10% during a 90-day pause meant to give countries time to negotiate deals with the US. When that expires July 9, the president has threatened to impose his own rates. Analysts said the court defeats strip the July 9 deadline of its force — and limit Trump's ability to threaten big escalations, like his since-paused Friday vow to hit the EU with 50% levies. Even if new tariffs are imposed under other statutory authorities, they'll be under legal scrutiny too and generally will only come after complicated, slow-moving investigations. Foreign countries will be mindful that 'unless this gets reversed on appeal, the July 9 deadline kind of goes away,' Harrell said. It's unquestionably a blow to Trump, who prides himself as the nation's dealmaker in chief and boasted about his skill as a negotiator in a May 16 interview on Fox News: 'Nobody uses leverage better than me.' --With assistance from Brendan Murray, Yoshiaki Nohara, Shruti Srivastava, Ruchi Bhatia and Donato Paolo Mancini. YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce How Coach Handbags Became a Gen Z Status Symbol Will Small Business Owners Knock Down Trump's Mighty Tariffs? ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. 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CNBC
21-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
It's a circus, says Capital Alpha's James Lucier on Congressional tax bill vote
James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners managing director, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the deadline looming for the tax bill vote and what it means for Americans.
New Straits Times
09-05-2025
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Global militaries to scrutinise outcome of India-Pakistan fighter jet battle
A dogfight between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters will be closely scrutinised by militaries seeking insights that could offer an edge in future conflicts. A Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft on Wednesday, said two United States officials, marking a potential major milestone for Beijing's advanced fighter jet. The aerial clash is a rare opportunity for militaries to study the performance of pilots, fighter jets and air-to-air missiles in active combat, and use that knowledge to prepare their own air forces for battle. Experts said the live use of advanced weapons would be analysed across the world, including in China and the US, which are both preparing for a potential conflict over Taiwan or in the wider Indo-Pacific region. One US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was high confidence that Pakistan had used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets. Social media posts focused on the performance of China's PL-15 air-to-air missile against the Meteor, a radar-guided air-to-air missile produced by European group MBDA. There has been no official confirmation these weapons were used. "Air warfare communities in China, the US and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn't," said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "You have arguably China's most capable weapon against the West's most capable weapon, if indeed it was being carried. We don't know that," Barrie said. The French and Americans would likely be hoping for similar intelligence from India, Barrie said. "The PL-15 is a big problem. It is something that the US military pays a lot of attention to," said a defence industry executive. Western analysts and industry sources said crucial details remained unclear, including whether the Meteor was carried and the type and amount of training the pilots had received. Arms firms would also be anxious to separate technical performance from operational factors, said analysts. "There will be audits of what works and what doesn't work, but I think the other overlay is the proverbial fog of war," said Byron Callan, a Washington-based defence expert and managing partner of Capital Alpha Partners. US arms companies are getting constant feedback about how their products are working in the war in Ukraine, he said. "So I absolutely expect the same to be the case with India's European suppliers, and Pakistan and China are probably sharing the same feedback. If the PL-15 is working as advertised or better than expected, the Chinese would like to hear that." A defence industry source from a Western country operating the Meteor said an online picture of a seeker appeared to feature the component of a missile that had missed its target. There are conflicting reports on whether Pakistan has the domestic version of the PL-15 from China's air force, or the lower-range export version publicly unveiled in 2021. Barrie, who has written extensively on the missile, said he believed that Pakistan most likely has the export version. A Western industry source dismissed claims that the rocket-powered PL-15 had longer range than the air-breathing Meteor but acknowledged that its capability "may be greater than was thought". "At the moment it's not possible to judge anything. We know so little," said the industry source. The PL-15's range and performance have been a focus of Western interest for years. Its emergence was seen as one of many signals that China had moved well beyond reliance on Soviet-era derivative technology. The US is developing the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile via Lockheed Martin partly in response to the PL-15 and its beyond-visual-range performance — part of a broader reset of Western capabilities.
