Latest news with #CapitalEconomics'
The Mainichi
3 days ago
- Business
- The Mainichi
Chinese economy grows at a 5.2% annual pace in April-June quarter despite trade war
BANGKOK (AP) -- China's economy slowed in the last quarter as President Donald Trump's trade war escalated, but it still expanded at a robust 5.2% pace, the government said Tuesday. That compares with 5.4% annual growth in January-March. The government said Tuesday that in quarterly terms, the world's second largest economy expanded by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy grew at a 5.3% annual pace, the official data show. However, some analysts said actual growth may have been significantly slower. Zichun Huang of Capital Economics noted that investments in fixed assets such as factory equipment rose only 2.8% in the first half of the year, implying 2.9% annual growth in May and a mere 0.5% increase in June. Capital Economics' activity proxy shows growth in China's gross domestic product, or GDP, at less than 4% year-on-year in April and May, she said, forecasting annual growth of 3.5% for full-year 2025. "The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging," Huang wrote in a report. She added though that "political pressure to meet annual growth targets, even if only on paper, means that published GDP growth will be much higher." A key factor was strong exports. On Monday, China reported that its exports accelerated in June, rising 5.8% from a year earlier, up from a 4.8% increase in May. A reprieve on painfully high tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States prompted a rush of orders by companies and consumers as the two sides resumed trade talks. Chinese companies also have expanded exports to and offshore manufacturing in other countries, helping to offset the impact of higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. "Generally speaking, with the more proactive and effective macro policies taking effect ... the national economy maintained steady growth with good momentum, showcasing strong resilience and vitality," the report by the National Bureau of Statistics said. However, a 0.1% decline in consumer prices in the first half of 2025 showed continuing weakness in domestic demand, a long-term challenge for the ruling communist party as the Chinese population declines and ages. Those troubles deepened during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 5% for this year, in line with last year's growth. A resumption of U.S. tariffs of up to 245% if Washington and Beijing fail to meet an Aug. 12 deadline for a new trade deal could derail the recovery in exports, a major driver of growth and employment.
Euronews
3 days ago
- Business
- Euronews
Chinese economy grows at a 5.2% annual pace despite trade war
China's economy slowed in the last quarter as President Donald Trump's trade war escalated, but it still expanded at a robust 5.2% pace, the government said Tuesday. That compares with 5.4% annual growth in January to March. The government said Tuesday that in quarterly terms, the world's second largest economy expanded by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy grew at a 5.3% annual pace, the official data shows. However, some analysts said actual growth may have been significantly slower. Zichun Huang of Capital Economics noted that investments in fixed assets such as factory equipment rose only 2.8% in the first half of the year, implying 2.9% annual growth in May and a mere 0.5% increase in June. Capital Economics' activity proxy shows growth in China's gross domestic product, or GDP, at less than 4% year-on-year in April and May, she said, forecasting annual growth of 3.5% for full-year 2025. 'The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging,' Huang wrote in a report. She added though that 'political pressure to meet annual growth targets, even if only on paper, means that published GDP growth will be much higher.' A key factor was strong exports. On Monday, China reported that its exports accelerated in June, rising 5.8% from a year earlier, up from a 4.8% increase in May. A reprieve on painfully high tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States prompted a rush of orders by companies and consumers as the two sides resumed trade talks. Chinese companies also have expanded exports to and offshore manufacturing in other countries, helping to offset the impact of higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. 'Generally speaking, with the more proactive and effective macro policies taking effect ... the national economy maintained steady growth with good momentum, showcasing strong resilience and vitality,' the report by the National Bureau of Statistics said. However, a 0.1% decline in consumer prices in the first half of 2025 showed continuing weakness in domestic demand, a long-term challenge for the ruling communist party as the Chinese population declines and ages. Those troubles deepened during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and are also linked to a prolonged real estate crisis. Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 5% for this year, in line with last year's growth. A resumption of US tariffs of up to 245% could derail the recovery in exports, a major driver of growth and employment. Such duties could become a reality if Washington and Beijing fail to meet an 12 August deadline for a new trade deal.
Mint
3 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Chinese economy grows at 5.2% annual pace in April-June quarter despite trade war
Bangkok, Jul 15 (AP) China's economy slowed in the last quarter as President Donald Trump's trade war escalated, but it still expanded at a robust 5.2% pace, the government said Tuesday. That compares with 5.4% annual growth in January-March. The government said Tuesday that in quarterly terms, the world's second largest economy expanded by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy grew at a 5.3% annual pace, the official data show. However, some analysts said actual growth may have been significantly slower. Zichun Huang of Capital Economics noted that investments in fixed assets such as factory equipment rose only 2.8% in the first half of the year, implying 2.9% annual growth in May and a mere 0.5% increase in June. Capital Economics' activity proxy shows growth in China's gross domestic product, or GDP, at less than 4% year-on-year in April and May, she said, forecasting annual growth of 3.5% for full-year 2025. 'The economic outlook for the rest of the year remains challenging,' Huang wrote in a report. She added though that 'political pressure to meet annual growth targets, even if only on paper, means that published GDP growth will be much higher.' A key factor was strong exports. On Monday, China reported that its exports accelerated in June, rising 5.8% from a year earlier, up from a 4.8% increase in May. A reprieve on painfully high tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States prompted a rush of orders by companies and consumers as the two sides resumed trade talks. Chinese companies also have expanded exports to and offshore manufacturing in other countries, helping to offset the impact of higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. 'Generally speaking, with the more proactive and effective macro policies taking effect ... the national economy maintained steady growth with good momentum, showcasing strong resilience and vitality,' the report by the National Bureau of Statistics said. However, a 0.1% decline in consumer prices in the first half of 2025 showed continuing weakness in domestic demand, a long-term challenge for the ruling communist party as the Chinese population declines and ages. Those troubles deepened during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 5% for this year, in line with last year's growth. A resumption of US tariffs of up to 245% if Washington and Beijing fail to meet an Aug. 12 deadline for a new trade deal could derail the recovery in exports, a major driver of growth and employment. (AP) NSA NSA
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First Post
03-07-2025
- Business
- First Post
China fumes over US-Vietnam deal targeting trans-shipping, vows to safeguard interests
The agreement with Vietnam reduces tariffs on Hanoi's exports from a threatened 46% to 20%, while maintaining a 40% duty on 'trans-shipped' goods — a measure widely seen as targeting Chinese products re-exported to the US read more A day after President Donald Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, China on Thursday slammed the deal, amid concerns in Beijing that the US is leveraging its 'liberation day' tariff negotiations with other countries to undermine China's export-driven economy. According to a Financial Times report, the agreement with Vietnam reduces tariffs on Hanoi's exports from a threatened 46% to 20%, while maintaining a 40% duty on 'trans-shipped' goods — a measure widely seen as targeting Chinese products re-exported to the US. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The agreement is the second seen as targeting China since President Trump outlined his 'liberation day' increases in tariffs on April 2, added the report. In May, the US and UK agreed a deal that included strict security requirements for steel and pharmaceuticals that were widely seen as intended to squeeze China out of British supply chains. More from World When asked about the deal with Vietnam, an important trading partner with China, the ministry of foreign affairs in Beijing said trade negotiations should not hurt the interests of 'third parties'. 'Relevant negotiations and agreements should not target or undermine the interests of any third party,' Financial Times quoted the ministry as saying. Dozens of countries are scrambling to secure trade agreements with the US ahead of the July 9 deadline, when President Trump's suspended 'reciprocal' tariffs are set to take effect. For Vietnam — one of the most trade-dependent nations, with the US accounting for 30% of its exports — the urgency was especially high. However, analysts noted that the steep final tariffs and the added levy on trans-shipping highlight the high cost Hanoi paid to strike the deal. Deal aimed at China? 'The new US-Vietnam deal is not just about trade; it is clearly aimed at China . . . it is meant to block the flow of Chinese goods that often move through Vietnam to dodge existing US duties,' Financial Times quoted Julien Chaisse, an expert on international economic law at the City University of Hong Kong, as saying. 'This fits a much wider trend: the US is lining up bilateral deals with countries near China to tighten economic co-operation and, at the same time, [make] it harder for Beijing to stretch its supply chain influence.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Many Southeast Asian nations benefited from the US-China trade war by becoming alternative hubs for Chinese manufacturers avoiding US tariffs. However, this 'China plus one' strategy led to significant trade surpluses with the US. 'The key lesson for other countries from this deal, and that agreed previously by the UK, is that they will be expected to curtail some trade with China,' Financial Times quoted Capital Economics' chief Asia economist Mark Williams and senior Asia economist Gareth Leather as writing in a note. 'That will be seen as a provocation in Beijing, particularly if similar conditions are included in any other deals agreed over coming days.' China's commerce ministry on Thursday also said that it firmly opposed any countries reaching a trade deal at its expense, adding that it would safeguard its rights and interests. According to the report, citing analysts, the Vietnam deal, as well as others that Beijing deems as endangering its interests, could also undermine US-China trade talks. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Trump recently claimed a tariff truce with Beijing has been signed, but concerns remain over Chinese restrictions on the flow of rare-earth exports and US export controls on advanced technology such as semiconductors. With inputs from agencies
AU Financial Review
25-06-2025
- Business
- AU Financial Review
ASX to slip, Nvidia resets record high, oil steadies
Australian shares are set to open lower, tracking weakness on Wall Street where a rally has run out of momentum near record highs. Nvidia reset its record high, moving towards a $US4 trillion market cap. Oil steadied. Nvidia has rallied more than 60 per cent from an early April low amid renewed optimism for the outlook for artificial intelligence. While US equities 'have rebounded strongly since April, they are still lagging equities in most other major stock markets since their peak in February', Capital Economics' Hubert de Barochez said. 'One reason is that the US dollar has weakened against most currencies, boosting equity returns elsewhere in common-currency terms. But reduced political uncertainty would probably lead the dollar to recover, and could also put the spotlight back on the potential of AI.' Market highlights ASX futures are pointing down 37 points or 0.4 per cent to 8500. All prices as of 2.30pm New York time. Today's agenda May job vacancies data will be released on Thursday. NAB said while job vacancies to date have fallen back 30.7 per cent from their May 2022 peak, the total number of vacancies is still 44.5 per cent higher than prior to the pandemic. 'An alternative way to express job vacancies is in terms of those unemployed. On that basis, the unemployment to job vacancy ratio currently stands at 1.9x, and although up from its pandemic low of 1.0, is still a lot lower than the 3.1x it was prior to the pandemic.' The NATO leaders summit has concluded and it will be followed by a Eurozone leaders meeting on Thursday. A raft of US data is set for release including monthly durable goods orders, trade and a third reading of first-quarter GDP as well as weekly initial jobless claims. Top stories Fix Howard's problematic GST deal, Hewson urges Chalmers | The architect of the Liberal Party's first GST policy says a rethink of federal-state responsibilities needs to be part of a tax reform agenda. | The opposition leader is trying to effect a cultural shift in the Liberal Party - and her colleagues are starting to discover how well she can handle things, writes Phillip Coorey.
