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CNBC
12 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
Traders head into the second half of the year with stocks at all-time highs, jobs report pending
Next week kicks off a new trading month as well as the back-half of 2025, and Wall Street will be watching to see if stocks keep up their recent than momentum. Stocks have made a massive comeback after seeing steep declines in early April, when investor anxiety around President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff policy put the S & P 500 near bear market territory . On Friday, the S & P 500 rose to a fresh all-time intraday high , spurred by optimism that trade deals with China and other U.S. trading partners would be announced soon. The three leading indexes are on pace to close out the first half of the year with solid gains. The S & P 500 as well as the Nasdaq Composite are up more than 5% year to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has advanced more than 3%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year-to-date Yet, some on the Street, such as BlackRock's Rick Rieder, are already projecting that the market could surge even higher in the year's second half. That's because the artificial intelligence revolution could bring down inflation , thereby sending the market higher, he said Wednesday during a keynote speech at the Morningstar Investment Conference. July 'fireworks'? Supporting a sustained rally, the market is also entering a historically strong month. July has been a positive one for the S & P 500 for the last 10 years straight and is the index's best month over the last 20 years, according to Ryan Detrick of the Carson Group. He also noted that July is the best month in a post-election year. "When you're higher in May and June like we're probably going to be with June, because we're up pretty good, July does better, and the final six months of the year have been higher 15 of the last 16 times," the firm's chief market strategist said Thursday on CNBC's " Worldwide Exchange ," noting that his word of the day is "fireworks." "When these weak months are strong, like we're doing right now, that could be a signal this bull market is alive and well." However, others are more skeptical that July will be smooth sailing for the market, seeing that Trump's 90-day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9. While the White House said Thursday that the deadline " is not critical " and that "perhaps it could be extended," the ensuing uncertainty around it could pose a risk. "Elevated macroeconomic and policy uncertainty suggests that equity volatility should remain high in H2, with multiple potential catalysts for volatility such as the July tariff deadlines," Goldman Sachs analyst Andrea Ferrario wrote in a Thursday note. On top of that, current valuation levels could signal the market may be getting ahead of itself. The S & P 500 currently trades at 23.3 times earnings, per FactSet. By comparison, the index's forward price-to-earnings ratio at the peak of the dot-com bubble was at 24.4 times earnings, as said by DataTrek co-founders Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe in a recent post on X . "A bullish call on U.S. large caps therefore requires believing that we can get to 1999-type valuations," they wrote. "The good news is that 2025 has a much more positive setup than 1999 (rate cuts, cheaper oil, greater S & P Tech exposure). Even still, current valuations reflect a full glass of optimism." Jobs on deck At this point, significantly more gains for stocks depend on the U.S. economic environment remaining rather stable, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. That will come especially into view next week. With U.S. markets closed Friday and a shortened trading day Thursday due to Independence Day, a slew of economic data is set to be released Thursday morning, including June's nonfarm payrolls reading. Economists polled by Dow Jones are expecting the report to show 115,000, per FactSet, down from the previous month's reported growth of 139,000 . "I think the most important kind of data to look at right now, and especially since next week we're going to get some of it, is employment," Saglimbene told CNBC. "The only time that consumers really pull back is when they fear they're going to lose their job or they've lost their job, and if we see employment data kind of remain firm, it's unlikely they're going to materially alter their spending, which is a positive for the economy, even with all of this uncertainty around trade and tariffs." Tuesday 9:45 a.m.: S & P Global manufacturing PMI (June) 10 a.m.: ISM Manufacturing (June) 10 a.m.: JOLTS (May) Wednesday 8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report (June) Thursday 8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm payrolls (June) 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims (Week ended June 28) 8:30 a.m.: International trade (May) 9:45 a.m.: S & P Global services PMI (June) 10 a.m.: ISM services (June) 10 a.m.: Factory orders (May) U.S. stock market closes at 1 p.m. Friday U.S. markets closed for Fourth of July holiday
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Wall Street ends mixed amid cooling Middle East tensions; Powell in focus
U.S. stocks took a breather on Wednesday, pausing a two-day rally as the tenuous Israel-Iran cease fire continued to hold and investors pored over a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. ADVERTISEMENT Tech shares lifted the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 ended flat. The benchmark index remained within striking distance of its record closing high reached on February 19. The blue-chip Dow ended in negative territory. "It almost feels like back to your regularly scheduled bull market," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. "We've dealt with the tariffs, we've dealt with the Middle East drama, but stocks continue to defy the odds by moving higher with the realization that the U.S. economy remains quite resilient." "But today it's almost like watching paint dry as we're all waiting for the S&P 500 to make new highs," Detrick added. Nvidia shares touched a record high, lifting its market value to $3.75 trillion and making it the world's most valuable company. ADVERTISEMENT Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, technology, communication services, and healthcare advanced on the day. Defensives such as real estate, consumer staples and utilities underperformed the broader market. "The lifeblood of a bull market is rotation," Detrick said. "And to see technology and communication services taking back the baton is really a good sign that this surprise summer rally likely has legs." ADVERTISEMENT The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 106.59 points, or 0.25%, to 42,982.43, the S&P 500 lost 0.02 points, or 0.00%, to 6,092.16 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 61.02 points, or 0.31%, to 19,973.55. The fragile truce between Israel and Iran continued to hold, with U.S. President Donald Trump declaring victory despite a lack of clarity regarding the extent of the damage U.S. strikes had on Iran's uranium enrichment assets. ADVERTISEMENT Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his second straight day of congressional testimony, reiterated to the Senate Banking Committee that the central bank is well-positioned to wait to cut interest rates until the inflationary effects of Trump's wide-ranging tariffs are better known. Financial markets are pricing in almost a 25% likelihood of a rate cut at the July policy meeting, and a 67% probability that the first cut will arrive in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. ADVERTISEMENT Housing data on Wednesday showed new home sales plunged 13.7% and applications for loans to buy homes dipped as mortgage rates edged higher. On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to issue its final take on first-quarter GDP, and its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday will provide insights into consumer spending and inflation. Tesla shares fell 3.8% as its European sales slumped for the fifth month. Economic uncertainty continues to weigh on corporate guidance. FedEx shares slid 3.3% after the package delivery company forecast quarterly profit below estimates as tariffs weighed on global demand. Rival UPS dropped 1.2%. General Mills also provided disappointing profit guidance, sending its shares 5.1% lower. U.S.-listed shares of cybersecurity firm BlackBerry jumped 12.5% on the heels of its revenue forecast hike, attributed to steady demand. Micron Technology surged more than 5% in extended trading after forecasting better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.94-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 174 new highs and 69 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,566 stocks rose and 2,859 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.83-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 24 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 65 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 16.02 billion shares, compared with the 18.08 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
New Straits Times
2 days ago
- Business
- New Straits Times
Wall Street ends mixed amid cooling Middle East tensions
NEW YORK: US stocks took a breather, pausing a two-day rally as the tenuous Israel-Iran cease fire continued to hold and investors pored over a second day of congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Tech shares lifted the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 ended flat. The benchmark index remained within striking distance of its record closing high reached on February 19. The blue-chip Dow ended in negative territory. "It almost feels like back to your regularly scheduled bull market," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. "We've dealt with the tariffs, we've dealt with the Middle East drama, but stocks continue to defy the odds by moving higher with the realization that the US economy remains quite resilient." "But today it's almost like watching paint dry as we're all waiting for the S&P 500 to make new highs," Detrick added. Nvidia shares touched a record high, lifting its market value to US$3.75 trillion and making it the world's most valuable company. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, technology, communication services, and healthcare advanced on the day. Defensives such as real estate, consumer staples and utilities underperformed the broader market. "The lifeblood of a bull market is rotation," Detrick said. "And to see technology and communication services taking back the baton is really a good sign that this surprise summer rally likely has legs." The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 106.59 points, or 0.25 per cent, to 42,982.43, the S&P 500 lost 0.02 points, or 0.00 per cent, to 6,092.16 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 61.02 points, or 0.31 per cent, to 19,973.55. The fragile truce between Israel and Iran continued to hold, with US President Donald Trump declaring victory despite a lack of clarity regarding the extent of the damage US strikes had on Iran's uranium enrichment assets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his second straight day of congressional testimony, reiterated to the Senate Banking Committee that the central bank is well-positioned to wait to cut interest rates until the inflationary effects of Trump's wide-ranging tariffs are better known. Financial markets are pricing in almost a 25 per cent likelihood of a rate cut at the July policy meeting, and a 67 per cent probability that the first cut will arrive in September, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Housing data on Wednesday showed new home sales plunged 13.7 per cent and applications for loans to buy homes dipped as mortgage rates edged higher. On Thursday, the Commerce Department is due to issue its final take on first-quarter GDP, and its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday will provide insights into consumer spending and inflation. Tesla shares fell 3.8 per cent as its European sales slumped for the fifth month. Economic uncertainty continues to weigh on corporate guidance. FedEx shares slid 3.3 per cent after the package delivery company forecast quarterly profit below estimates as tariffs weighed on global demand. Rival UPS dropped 1.2 per cent. General Mills also provided disappointing profit guidance, sending its shares 5.1 per cent lower. US-listed shares of cybersecurity firm BlackBerry jumped 12.5 per cent on the heels of its revenue forecast hike, attributed to steady demand. Micron Technology surged more than 5 per cent in extended trading after forecasting better-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.94-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 174 new highs and 69 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,566 stocks rose and 2,859 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.83-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 24 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 65 new lows. Volume on US exchanges was 16.02 billion shares, compared with the 18.08 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.
Axios
3 days ago
- Business
- Axios
Tech leads stocks to records after bear market scare
The S&P 500 has been on a rollercoaster ride, nearing a new all-time high, only 77 days after dipping into an intraday bear market in April. Why it matters: Historically, a market recovery of this size and speed signals more gains ahead, so forget the prior lows. This relief rally is bullish. By the numbers: Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, crunched the numbers. Stocks are up more than 20% from the April 8 lows. A 20% rally in two months has only happened five other times since 1950. In all of those prior cases, stocks were higher 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. What they're saying: "We think the biggest risk to our view is that we're not bullish enough," Max Kettner, chief multiasset strategist at HSBC, wrote in a note to clients. Investors could be "underestimating the boost from AI and the weaker USD," he points out. That could drive efficiencies across the market and cushion any potential earnings weakness, respectively. Zoom out: What brings the market down tends to bring it back up. In this case: tech stocks. Losses in large-cap tech led the market to its April bottom. Now, XLK, an ETF that tacks the biggest tech names in the S&P 500, has hit its highest level in history. The intrigue: Dan Ives, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities, sees the tech rally gaining fuel from the removal of geopolitical risks. "With a weakened Iran and no nuclear capabilities, there is a growing view from tech investors that the opportunity for the Middle East to embrace the tech and AI boom is now on the doorstep being led by Saudi and UAE," he wrote in a note to clients. Reality check: It's not all roses. Market strategists say investors ignore recent headwinds such as trade turmoil and war at their own risk. What we're watching: Marci McGregor, the head of portfolio strategy for the chief investment office at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, expects stocks to be choppy in the months ahead.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
What the Israel-Iran Conflict Means for Sector ETFs
ETFs tracking energy, aerospace, and defense stocks have wiped out initial losses following the onset of the conflict between Iran and Israel, instead climbing to new highs amid speculation that a prolonged conflict might drive up oil prices and fuel demand for weapons. The attacks and Iran's retaliatory strikes, which also sent shock waves through Israeli-focused funds and broader markets, have far-reaching implications, with gains and losses expected to amplify the market turmoil of the first half of 2025. Still, some experts maintain that holding is the best strategy and that diversification will continue to keep portfolios afloat, particularly since US Treasury yields have actually risen. 'This just adds to the chaos we've already had this year,' said Sonu Varghese, a global macro strategist at Carson Group. 'How we're talking to advisors is, 'Diversification may not have worked for the last 10, 15 years, but it's really showing its colors now.'' READ ALSO: BlackRock Dumps 14 Funds, Many Being Sustainable Products and Fidelity, Franklin Prep Solana ETFs with Staking The iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS) — which tracks an index of Israeli firms, including its major banks, and has $272 million in assets under management — fell from $86 to $82 a share Friday afternoon, per NYSE Arca data, but has since rebounded to a high of $86.70. The ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF (IZRL), which also tracks Israeli companies, saw a similar dip Friday but is now up to a high of $25 a share. Other sector ETFs whipsawing in the aftermath include: The United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), which gained 12.4% last week and is now up 5.3% YTD, reflecting the potential for a longer-term spike in crude oil prices if shipping routes — primarily the Strait of Hormuz — are disrupted. The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET), which tracks crude oil tanker freight rates, jumped 11% Friday and has remained elevated as shipping stocks surge. Back Away, Bonds: In the wake of the strikes, investors have flocked to so-called safe haven ETFs like those tracking the Japanese yen and the long end of the yield curve (such as bonds with a maturity of more than 20 years). However, a properly diversified portfolio doesn't just rely on bonds to diversify from stocks, Varghese said, but includes things like gold and managed futures. 'There's a bull case and the bear case, and that's directly being reflected in our portfolios,' Varghese said. 'I'm not saying this was exactly predictable, but our portfolios have been positioned to account for the fact that bonds may not be the best diversifier going forward.' This post first appeared on The Daily Upside. To receive exclusive news and analysis of the rapidly evolving ETF landscape, built for advisors and capital allocators, subscribe to our free ETF Upside newsletter. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
