Latest news with #CaseySprake
IOL News
25-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
South Africa's job market struggles: 95,000 jobs lost in March 2025
March 2025 was not a good month for South Africans as another 95 000 jobs were lost between this year and last year. March 2025 was not a good month for South Africans as another 95 000 jobs were lost between this year and last year. Many of those who are now without gainful employment worked in the construction, mining, community services, and trade sectors. A surprise in the figures was a net gain of 2 000 in jobs in the manufacturing sector, which has been a declining sector for several years. Employment in the transport industry remain unchanged. Casey Sprake, economist at Anchor, noted that formal sector employment, excluding agriculture, declined by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, shedding 74 000 jobs. This, she says, is 'a stark indicator of an economy still struggling to gain traction'.
IOL News
19-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
SA inflation holds at 2. 8% in May, but rise in food prices especially meat
There was a modest rise in food prices according to Stats SA inflation data released this week. Image: Independent Newspapers Archives Annual consumer price inflation in South Africa held steady at 2.8% in May 2025, unchanged from April, according to data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) this week. While overall price pressures remain subdued, the re-emergence of food inflation is raising red flags according to an economist. Stats SA reported that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate were housing and utilities (4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.8%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.3%). Economist Casey Sprake of Anchor Capital said, 'While fuel disinflation continued to exert downward pressure, this was counterbalanced by a modest rise in food prices and a stable core inflation print.' Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.0% year-on-year, indicating that underlying price dynamics are still relatively contained. 'Durable goods categories, particularly furnishings and household equipment, remain deep in deflation, with price declines persisting for over 17 consecutive months,' said Sprake. Fuel prices continued to offer some relief, with a 1.1% month-on-month drop and a sharp 14.9% year-on-year decline, the largest since October 2024. Petrol is now 15.9% cheaper than a year ago, and diesel prices have dropped by 12.6%. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ But food prices surged, especially in the meat category. Stats SA noted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category was the only major group contributing to the monthly CPI change, increasing by 1.1% month-on-month. Sprake warned, 'This uptick was driven primarily by a sharp increase in meat prices, particularly beef, where inflation rose from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May.' The rise in food costs is largely attributed to supply-side shocks such as a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and high feed costs. Fruit and vegetable prices also saw double-digit increases, intensifying pressure on consumer food baskets. While the inflation print supports the case for the South African Reserve Bank to maintain a steady interest rate, Sprake noted that geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties could complicate the policy path. 'We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold rates steady in July,' she said. Stats SA will release the next CPI data on 23 July. THE MERCURY
Mail & Guardian
13-05-2025
- Business
- Mail & Guardian
SA's unemployment rate edges up to 32.9%
File photo South Africa's official The number of employed people decreased by 291 000 to 16.8 million quarter-on-quarter, while the number of people without jobs increased by 237 000 to 8.2 million, Jobs in the formal sector fell by 245 000, and losses were also recorded in trade (194 000), construction (119 000), private households (68 000) and community and social services. Employment however increased by 17 000 in the informal sector. Jobs were also added in transport (67 000), finance (60 000) and utilities (35 000), Stats SA said. The increase in the unemployment rate shows that South Africa 'continues to grapple with a relentless rise in unemployment, casting a shadow over the country's recovery efforts', Casey Sprake, an economist at Anchor Capital, said in a statement. 'While recent key reform measures point to a more positive trajectory, this progress has not yet trickled down to many South Africans in the form of job opportunities,' she said. 'Structural challenges, such as a skills gap, labour market rigidities, and the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, have exacerbated unemployment rates, especially among the youth.' Young people aged 15 to 34 years remain particularly vulnerable in the labour market, the statistics agency said. The number of unemployed youth increased by 151 000, while that of young people with jobs fell by 153 000. This translated to the youth unemployment rate increasing to 46.1% from 44.6% previously.
IOL News
09-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Coffee table economics with Anchor: Gold's great divide
Coffee Table Economics (CTE) with Anchor, by Casey Sprake, is distributed periodically. CTE is a compilation of Casey's research, analysis, and perspectives on key South African (SA) and global economic data such as inflation, spending trends, and international market dynamics, including socio-political events and the multiple factors shaping the world economy. Image: IOL Gold's great divide: Market trends, central bank moves, and economic uncertainty The global gold market is experiencing a structural and cyclical shift, driven by surging demand in key markets and a broader realignment of investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty. At the heart of this dynamic are India and China - two economic powerhouses with vastly different supply-demand profiles. India's demand for gold remains unmatched, primarily driven by its deep cultural and religious ties to the metal. Gold is not only seen as a symbol of wealth and status but also as a store of value, particularly in times of financial instability. In 2023, India's consumption was a staggering 50 times greater than its domestic production, underscoring the country's heavy reliance on imports. This demand is largely jewellery-driven and reinforced by traditions, particularly in Hindu and Jain communities. China, on the other hand, while also a major gold consumer, is better positioned to meet its demand through local production, producing over one-third of the gold it consumes. In addition to consumer demand, China's central bank has been aggressively increasing its reserves, adding 316 tonnes since 2022. This reflects a strategic shift by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to hedge against inflation, reduce dependency on the US dollar, and manage currency risk. The divergence in domestic supply vs demand is not unique to these two nations. The US, Türkiye, and several other countries also show significant supply gaps. For example, the US consumed 249 tonnes of gold in 2023 but produced only 167 tonnes, while Türkiye's demand outstripped its production by a factor of five. Amid these national imbalances, the broader macroeconomic backdrop has become increasingly supportive of gold. Rising financial market volatility, driven in part by renewed global trade tensions (particularly around US tariff policies), has elevated fears of a recession and slowed global growth expectations. This environment has weighed on industrial commodity demand but boosted the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold. Gold's role as a hedge against uncertainty has only strengthened. Prices recently soared above US$3,500/oz, buoyed by robust physical demand and a surge in inventory flows into US commodity exchanges like COMEX. This spike was notably tied to geopolitical events, such as the run-up to the US's 'Liberation Day' tariff deadline on 2 April, which triggered a rush into physical gold. Interestingly, a divergence has emerged between gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures exchange inventories. While COMEX inventories have surged to record highs, ETF holdings remain below their COVID-19 pandemic-era peaks. This suggests latent investment demand could flow into gold-backed ETFs in the near future, providing further price support. The bottom line Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading The current gold market reflects a convergence of strong consumer demand, strategic central bank buying, and heightened global economic uncertainty. These forces have positioned gold as both a financial haven and a key indicator of investor sentiment. As the macroeconomic environment remains turbulent, gold is likely to maintain its upward trajectory, influencing not just commodities markets but broader capital allocation strategies across the globe. Reshoring ambitions: Trump's manufacturing push and the global industrial landscape In a world increasingly shaped by global supply chains, the resurgence of nationalist industrial policy (particularly in the US) has reignited debate about the long-term viability and consequences of reshoring manufacturing. US President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff strategy, aimed at bringing manufacturing jobs back to US soil, marked a dramatic pivot in US economic policy. Framed as a bid to rebuild domestic industry and deliver 'better-paying American jobs making beautiful American-made cars, appliances, and other goods,' this policy stance came against the backdrop of a steadily widening manufacturing gap between the US and China. Since overtaking the US in 2010, China has firmly cemented its status as the world's largest manufacturer. By 2023, China's manufacturing sector added US$4.8trn in value, roughly 27% of its total economic output. Central to this dominance are its heavy industries, such as metallurgical and machine-building, which account for nearly 40% of industrial output. Additionally, sectors like fertilisers, synthetic fibres, and plastics bolster its production capacity, while consumer exports (ranging from clothing to electronics and toys) underscore its continued global reach. The US, by contrast, has become less manufacturing-intensive, with the sector making up just over 10% of its economy. This relative decline has spurred political urgency, particularly from populist quarters, to reassert US industrial strength. Tariffs, as employed under Trump, were the blunt instrument used to disrupt the offshoring trend and incentivise domestic production. Yet while this approach aimed to rebalance trade deficits and reshore supply chains, it also raised costs for US businesses reliant on foreign inputs and led to retaliatory measures from the country's trading partners. The broader economic implications of such a policy are complex. On the one hand, reshoring could theoretically strengthen domestic industries, create jobs, and reduce vulnerability to global disruptions, as witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, it may lead to higher consumer prices, inefficiencies from lost specialisation, and increased geopolitical friction. Global manufacturing powerhouses like Germany and Italy continue to thrive not by insulating their economies, but by excelling in high-value sectors like automotive engineering, machinery, and fashion, while staying deeply integrated with global markets. Meanwhile, emerging industrial hubs such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye show that manufacturing strength can be cultivated through sector-specific strategies and regional integration. Brazil's aerospace and food processing industries, Saudi Arabia's petrochemicals under Vision 2030, and Türkiye's mix of traditional and advanced manufacturing point to diverse paths to industrial development. The bottom line While the US's push to restore manufacturing might resonate politically, especially amid concerns over supply chain resilience and national security, its economic payoff remains uncertain. Without a parallel investment in workforce development, infrastructure, and innovation, tariffs alone may not be enough to close the manufacturing gap with China or replicate the success of other global industrial leaders. The path to revitalising US manufacturing will likely require more than protectionism; it will demand a coordinated, long-term industrial strategy. SA inflation eases again, but will the SARB blink? SA's March CPI surprised to the downside, rising just 2.7% YoY - well below market expectations. This marks the lowest annual inflation print since mid-2020 and reflects a continued cooling in price pressures across the economy. MoM, inflation also slowed to 0.4%, down from 0.9% in February, reinforcing signs of a broad-based deceleration. A key contributor was the annual survey of education costs, which only happens in March. This year, the education price index rose by just 4.5%, compared to 6.4% in 2024. School fees increased 5.0% (down from 6.6%), while tertiary fees climbed only 3.7% (vs 5.9% a year ago). While education costs remain high in absolute terms, the slower pace of increase offered welcome relief for many households and played a notable role in the disinflation trend. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, also eased to 3.1% YoY (from 3.4% in February) and 0.5% MoM (vs 1.1% previously). This suggests that underlying inflationary momentum is losing steam. Housing-related services, previously showing signs of reacceleration, remained subdued. Rental inflation nudged up only slightly to 2.6% YoY, highlighting persistent weakness in the property market. Vehicle prices continued to soften, and categories like clothing and footwear saw further disinflation, helped by a drop in import costs, particularly from China. Meanwhile, inflation in restaurants and accommodation also slowed, as seasonal festive demand faded. Food and non-alcoholic beverages (FNAB) inflation ticked slightly lower to 2.7% YoY. Cereal-based products continued to reflect elevated maize prices from late 2024, but the pace of increases is levelling out. Meat prices, while still influenced by earlier cost pressures, appear to be nearing a peak, with MoM gains starting to taper off. However, price increases in categories like fish, vegetables, and fruit added some upward pressure. Overall, food inflation remains relatively modest, though second-round effects from higher farmgate prices are likely to persist into 2Q25. Fuel prices remained the single largest drag on headline inflation. Pump prices dropped 8.8% YoY and 0.4% MoM in March, with the trend expected to deepen in April after a 2.8% cut took effect. Preliminary data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggest another 1% reduction is likely in early May. Weakness in global oil markets has helped keep local prices in check, even as the rand continues to show volatility. This has offered significant relief for consumers and businesses alike, particularly in transport and logistics. The central question is: What are the implications of all this for monetary policy? With both headline and core inflation softening, the SARB's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) finds itself in a more flexible position. The real policy rate—the difference between the repo rate and inflation - remains deeply restrictive. This gives the SARB room to consider a more accommodative stance without immediately risking its inflation target. From a macro perspective, the case for easing has grown stronger. Wage growth remains muted, consumer demand is softening, and core inflation is trending lower. However, the SARB has been clear: it is committed to anchoring inflation expectations and maintaining financial stability. The rand remains a key vulnerability—any renewed depreciation could quickly unwind some of the recent inflation gains, particularly via food and fuel channels. Geopolitical tensions and diverging global monetary paths also add to the uncertainty. The bottom line With major central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) expected to begin easing cycles in the coming months, pressure may mount on the SARB to follow suit. If global growth slows and capital flows become more volatile, SA could be forced into earlier or deeper rate cuts than currently anticipated. Markets are already positioning for this possibility, pricing in two 25-bpt cuts for 2025 (the first having taken place during the January MPC meeting), with a third beginning to look likely. Still, while the door to rate cuts is ajar, the SARB remains cautious. It is not yet ready to walk through at full tilt - at least not without greater clarity on domestic stability and external risks. The March inflation print reinforces the idea that monetary tightening has run its course. Now the question is whether the SARB feels confident enough to continue through the cutting cycle, and when. Casey Sprake, Economist, Anchor Capital. BUSINESS REPORT
Yahoo
16-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Farmers warn of continued food price hikes due to multiple factors beyond their control: 'Food inflation could increase'
Has your grocery bill left you shocked lately? Across the globe, food prices are rising. In places like South Africa, the increases are sharp and with no end in sight, making it harder for some households to make ends meet. The latest numbers from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group's Household Affordability Index paint a clear picture of the struggle many families are facing. Founded in 2018 "in response to the unjust and unequal political economy of South Africa," according to their website, the organization publishes the HAI monthly. The report analyzes "the average cost of the foods prioritised and bought first in the household food basket," per the South African outlet Independent Online. From December 2024 to January 2025, the report shows that the average cost of essential foods rose by 1%, an increase of 28.49 rands (roughly $1.44 USD at the time of publish), according to IOL. The outlet also noted an increase from the same time last year of 3.5% or R99.07 (around $5.02 USD) for the same grocery basics. Meanwhile, per IOL, the National Agricultural Marketing Council reported a 0.6% increase on the items in its own food basket between November 2024 and December 2024. Extreme weather events are playing a significant role in escalating food prices around the world. Economist Casey Sprake told IOL, "Weather events such as El Niño led to a drop in maize production, primarily white maize, which saw the price hike due to lower local supply and higher demand from Southern Africa." El Niño reportedly charged a record-breaking drought in the region throughout much of 2024, devastating harvests in multiple Southern African countries. To zero in on just one crop, the country has ranked first in Africa and 11th globally in maize production, according to a 2024 report from Business Insider. Hits to this food's production are not inconsequential: The corn industry is a major employer in the region, and corn is a staple locally as well as in many cultures around the world. Indeed, rising food prices are a global problem. Tea, similarly, is a diet staple, a source of employment, and an important export for Turkey, where drier and hotter conditions have recently threatened its yields. Rice harvests have been jeopardized by extreme heat and flooding in Japan and Sri Lanka, respectively — the crop being of cultural and economic significance in both countries. Do you worry about how much food you throw away? Definitely Sometimes Not really Never Click your choice to see results and speak your mind. IOL also spoke with Sprake about meat prices, which he said are influenced by "animal diseases, exchange rates, and seasonal supply fluctuations." It's worth noting that disease spread itself can be compounded by environmental factors, including volatile weather. It might seem easy for some to shrug off a few extra dollars here and there, but these price surges signal much bigger issues. For South African households already facing financial strain, higher grocery bills may only add to the burden. "If pressure on the local currency intensifies, food inflation could increase, as imported goods and global commodity prices would become more expensive," Sprake said. The rising cost of living also highlights the fragility of the country's food systems, which are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather events and fluctuations in global markets. If these trends continue, more people will struggle to afford basic necessities, contributing to more widely felt food insecurity and economic instability. While the future of food prices remains uncertain, there are efforts underway to help stabilize costs. Local agriculture initiatives and smarter supply chain management are at the forefront of these efforts. Supporting sustainable farming practices and policies that can strengthen local food systems will be essential to keeping prices down and buttressing food security. On a personal level, buying local and supporting farmers in your community can make a real difference. To tackle the root causes — like climate disruptions and currency fluctuations — governments and communities alike need to step up. As we move forward, it's clear that price increases are just one more example of how unchecked heat-trapping pollution and the extreme weather it causes are pushing our planet — and our wallets — closer to the edge. Join our free newsletter for easy tips to save more and waste less, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.
