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DW
12-07-2025
- DW
Japan steps up earthquake, tsunami defenses amid quake swarm – DW – 07/12/2025
Authorities have evacuated dozens of people from remote islands in southern Japan that have been shaken by over 1,700 tremors in recent weeks. The Japanese government on July 1 approved significant upgrades to the plan to safeguard the public in the event of a major earthquake off southern Japan and to respond in the event that disaster does strike. The move comes amid an unprecedented swarm of quakes hitting the Tokara Islands. Dozens of residents of the remote island chain, half-way between Japan's most southerly main island of Kyushu and Okinawa Prefecture, have been evacuated to the mainland after enduring more than 1,700 tremors since June 21. The islands were hit by 60 quakes on Monday alone, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, with Akusekijima island shaken by multiple tremors of magnitude 5. Experts say earthquake swarms have been recorded in the area before, but never of such magnitude or for such an extended period of time. Authorities have instructed residents who have chosen to remain on the islands to be prepared for further tremors, although they have gone to great lengths to emphasize that the ongoing seismic activity in the Tokara islands is not a precursor to the much-feared Nankai Trough earthquake. They agree, however, that disaster is unavoidable and edging closer. Japan is one of the world's most seismically active countries. The archipelago, home to around 125 million people, sits on top of four major tectonic plates along the western edge of the Pacific "Ring of Fire." The nation typically experiences around 1,500 jolts every year and accounts for about 18% of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater. In March, the Japanese government released an updated report on the threat posed by a quake in the Nankai Trough, a 900-kilometer fault that runs parallel to the coast of southern Japan, from Kyushu in the west to Tokyo at its far eastern end. The study puts the likelihood of a magnitude-9 quake on the fault at 80% in the next 30 years. In 2014, a similar report estimated a potential death toll of 332,000 and the destruction of 2.5 million buildings, primarily due to a resulting tsunami impacting coastal communities. But the latest revised report has lowered the number of potential fatalities to 298,000, the vast majority of them victims of tsunami waves, while 2.35 million buildings would be destroyed. In response, the government's Central Disaster Management Council has drawn up new plans, aiming to cut the projected death toll by 80% within the next decade. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Takeshi Sagiya, a professor at Nagoya University's Research Center for Seismology, Vulcanology and Disaster Mitigation, says the 80% target is commendable but probably not achievable in the event of a magnitude-9 disaster. "The government's priority is to reduce loss of life, but while we learned a lot from the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, we also realized that it is impossible to protect everyone and everything," he told DW. Taller and more robust sea walls have been constructed in some areas, with hundreds of tsunami refuge towers built in communities identified as most at risk in the event of an earthquake-triggered tsunami. One of the newest is in Kuroshio town in Kochi Prefecture, where experts suggest a tsunami of up to 34 meters could come ashore in a worst-case scenario. "The infrastructure is important, but probably more important is to educate local people on what to do when an earthquake happens, how they can evacuate quickly and which routes they should take," Sagiya said. "People need to better understand the hazards because the estimates say that the first tsunami could hit the shore just five minutes after a quake." In 2011 in Tohoku, in contrast, it was around 30 minutes before the first waves struck the coast, with the tsunami blamed for virtually all the 20,000 dead. Sagiya said it is "clearly impractical" to attempt to build 30-meter seawalls around the entire coastline of southern Japan and that, inevitably, the coastal cities of Nagoya and Osaka will be impacted by a tsunami. "And when there is widespread destruction in the cities, who is going to be available to provide help in the coastal communities that have been hit?" he asked. The other hard lessons that Japan learned in 2011 involved the nuclear power plant at Fukushima, said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of science and technology policy at Tokyo University and leader of the 10-year investigation into the disaster. "The reason the Fukushima Daiichi reactors failed was due to the diesel generators that were the backup power supply being placed in basements that were flooded," he told DW. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Similarly, the fire engines to pump water onto the three reactors that experienced meltdowns were all parked in one place that was overwhelmed by waves, rendering them inoperable. "Lessons were learned in 2011 and there are new regulations in place about emergency generators, fire engines and other safety measures," he said. "But there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to an earthquake in the Nankai Trough and it is important that there are constant efforts to improve safety, to keep looking and looking to try to identify weaknesses and then to solve them." And while there are a number of nuclear facilities on Japan's southern coast that would feel the impact of a tremor in the Nankai Trough, Suzuki says the one he is most concerned about is the Sendai plant on the coast of Kagoshima Prefecture. "It is not directly facing the trough, but I believe it is the most vulnerable and there is the possibility that it might fail," he said.
DW
09-07-2025
- DW
Japan steps up earthquake, tsunami defenses amid quake swarm – DW – 07/09/2025
Authorities have evacuated dozens of people from remote islands in southern Japan that have been shaken by over 1,700 tremors in recent weeks. The Japanese government on July 1 approved significant upgrades to the national plan to safeguard the public in the event of a major earthquake off southern Japan and to respond in the event that disaster does strike. The move comes amid an unprecedented swarm of quakes hitting the Tokara Islands. Dozens of residents of the remote island chain, half-way between Japan's most southerly main island of Kyushu and Okinawa Prefecture, have been evacuated to the mainland after enduring more than 1,700 tremors since June 21. The islands were hit by 60 quakes on Monday alone, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, with Akusekijima island shaken by multiple tremors of magnitude 5. Experts say earthquake swarms have been recorded in the area before, but never of such magnitude or for such an extended period of time. Authorities have instructed residents who have chosen to remain on the islands to be prepared for further tremors, although they have gone to great lengths to emphasize that the ongoing seismic activity in the Tokara islands is not a precursor to the much-feared Nankai Trough earthquake. They agree, however, that disaster is unavoidable and edging closer. Japan is one of the world's most seismically active countries. The archipelago, home to around 125 million people, sits on top of four major tectonic plates along the western edge of the Pacific "Ring of Fire." The nation typically experiences around 1,500 jolts every year and accounts for about 18% of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater. In March, the Japanese government released an updated report on the threat posed by a quake in the Nankai Trough, a 900-kilometer fault that runs parallel to the coast off southern Japan, from Kyushu in the west to Tokyo at its far eastern end. The study now puts the likelihood of a magnitude-9 quake on the fault at 80% in the next 30 years. In 2014, a similar report estimated a potential death toll of 332,000 and the destruction of 2.5 million buildings, primarily due to a resulting tsunami impacting coastal communities. But the revised report now lowered the number of potential fatalities to 298,000, the vast majority of them victims of tsunami waves, while 2.35 million buildings would be destroyed. In response, the government's Central Disaster Management Council has drawn up new plans, aiming to cut the projected death toll by 80% within the next decade. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Takeshi Sagiya, a professor at Nagoya University's Research Center for Seismology, Vulcanology and Disaster Mitigation, says the 80% target is commendable but probably not achievable in the event of a magnitude-9 disaster. "The government's priority is to reduce loss of life, but while we learned a lot from the Tohoku earthquake of 2011, we also realized that it is impossible to protect everyone and everything," he told DW. Taller and more robust sea walls have been constructed in some areas, with hundreds of tsunami refuge towers built in communities identified as most at risk in the event of an earthquake-triggered tsunami. One of the newest is in Kuroshio town in Kochi Prefecture, where experts suggest a tsunami of up to 34 meters tall could come ashore in a worst-case scenario. "The infrastructure is important, but probably more important is to educate local people on what to do when an earthquake happens, how they can evacuate quickly and which routes they should take," Sagiya said. "People need to better understand the hazards because the estimates say that the first tsunami could hit the shore just five minutes after a quake," he said. In 2011 in Tohoku, in contrast, it was around 30 minutes before the first waves struck the coast, with the tsunami blamed for virtually all the around 20,000 dead. Sagiya said it is "clearly impractical" to attempt to build 30-meter seawalls around the entire coastline of southern Japan and that, inevitably, the coastal cities of Nagoya and Osaka will be impacted by tsunami. "And when there is widespread destruction in the cities, who is going to be available to provide help in the coastal communities that have been hit?" he asked. The other hard lessons that Japan learned in 2011 involved the nuclear power plant at Fukushima, said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of science and technology policy at Tokyo University and leader of the 10-year investigation into the disaster. "The reason the Fukushima Daiichi reactors failed was due to the diesel generators that were the backup power supply being placed in basements that were flooded," he told DW. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Similarly, the fire engines that were needed to pump water onto the three reactors that experienced meltdowns were all parked in one place that was overwhelmed by waves, rendering them inoperable. "Lessons were learned in 2011 and there are new regulations in place about emergency generators, fire engines and other safety measures," he said. "But there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to an earthquake in the Nankai Trough and it is important that there are constant efforts to improve safety, to keep looking and looking to try to identify weaknesses and then to solve them." And while there are a number of nuclear facilities on Japan's southern coast that would feel the impact of a tremor in the Nankai Trough, Suzuki says the one he is most concerned about is the Sendai plant on the coast of Kagoshima Prefecture. "It is not directly facing the trough, but I believe it is the most vulnerable and there is the possibility that it might fail," he said.
Japan Forward
05-07-2025
- Politics
- Japan Forward
Earthquake Preparedness: Japan's Critical Decade
このページを 日本語 で読む The Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese government has unveiled a new basic plan to reduce the impact of a major Nankai Trough earthquake. It aims to reduce 80% of the estimated death toll of 298,000 within the next decade. The urgency of disaster preparedness is underscored by recent seismic activity in another region of Japan. Beginning in late June, the Tokara Islands in southern Kagoshima Prefecture experienced a swarm of over 1000 earthquakes since June 21. The islands are along the Ryukyu Trench, near the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate subduction zone. Although no major damage has been reported, the persistent tremors have significantly heightened public anxiety. Adding to this sense of unease is a prediction circulating online, based on a manga titled The Future I Saw, that a catastrophic earthquake would strike Japan on July 5. The previous plan, introduced in 2014, set the same goal of cutting the death toll by 80 percent over ten years. In practice, however, the reduction reached only about 20 percent. The new strategy must avoid repeating the same failures. Japan must thoroughly investigate why the previous disaster mitigation targets fell so far short, identify the gaps, and reflect those lessons in the new plan. Meeting these goals is a vital responsibility the government owes to its citizens. Evacuees from Tokara Island arrive at Kagoshima Port by ferry on July 4. (©Sankei by Kotaro Hikono) It is undeniable that the progress of past disaster countermeasures was inadequately monitored and assessed. The new plan addresses this by shifting from irregular progress checks to annual evaluations and by quadrupling the numerical targets for key measures. Many challenges remain. These include the construction of embankments and tsunami evacuation facilities, as well as the seismic retrofitting of homes. Effective solutions must be devised and implemented steadily to address such pressing issues. Countermeasures against a Nankai Trough earthquake will be the top priority for the new control-tower Disaster Management Agency, which the government plans to launch in fiscal 2026. The agency's effectiveness as a central command body will be put to the test in this effort. At the same time, stronger support for local governments is essential. To reduce the number of tsunami-related deaths, swift evacuation at the onset of strong shaking is critical. The new plan calls for an investigation into factors that prevent residents from recognizing the urgency of early evacuation. This review must be conducted without delay, and its findings incorporated into future countermeasures. A tsunami of up to 31 meters is expected to reach Shimoda City in Shizuoka Prefecture in the event of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough. Nankai Trough earthquakes are estimated to occur every 100 to 150 years, though the intervals can vary. The last major quake, which struck near the end of World War II, came about 90 years after the Ansei era earthquake in the late Edo period. Now, with 80 years having passed since the war, it would not be surprising if the next temblor occurred within the next decade. As outlined in the new plan, the coming ten years could be our final opportunity to significantly decrease disaster risk. The government must act swiftly to accelerate its efforts with this sense of urgency. At the Central Disaster Management Council meeting, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said, "It is important for various entities, including the national government, local governments, companies, and NPOs, to join forces and promote countermeasures." Yet, above all, what truly matters is the Prime Minister's determination and action. The public must also understand the importance of preparedness. They should take proactive steps within their control, such as securing furniture to prevent injuries during an earthquake. In the upcoming Upper House election, each party has pledged to strengthen disaster preparedness efforts, including for earthquakes. We look forward to meaningful policy debates focused on the nation's disaster management strategy. Author: The Sankei Shimbun このページを 日本語 で読む
Time of India
03-07-2025
- Science
- Time of India
What is the Nankai Trough megaquake and why it could be fatal for Japan, according to Ryo Tatsuki's prediction
What is the Nankai Trough megaquake and why it could be fatal for Japan Japan, one of the most seismically active countries in the world, has approved a new comprehensive disaster preparedness strategy aimed at mitigating the catastrophic impact of the anticipated Nankai Trough megaquake. This long-overdue initiative comes in response to scientific consensus that a powerful earthquake, possibly followed by massive tsunamis, is likely to strike along the Nankai megathrust—a subduction zone off Japan's Pacific coast—within the coming decades. Government projections warn that such an event could result in the deaths of up to 298,000 people and the destruction of over 2.35 million buildings in a worst-case scenario. According to The Economic Times , the Central Disaster Management Council, led by the Japanese Prime Minister, convened in Tokyo to approve the new plan. It updates the 2014 disaster guidelines and sets ambitious targets to reduce deaths by 80% and damage by 50% over the next ten years. Here are the details of origins, scientific background, objectives, and implementation mechanisms of Japan's newest national strategy, aiming to provide a complete, fact-based picture of the challenges and solutions related to one of the country's most significant natural threats. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 남재현 박사, 염증 공장 "내장지방" 싹 녹이는 [이것] 공개 남재현 체중감량 후기 더 알아보기 Undo 'New Baba Vanga' predicts a catastrophic quake in Japan: What is the Nankai Trough and why it matters The Nankai Trough is a deep oceanic trench located off the southern coast of Japan, stretching from Suruga Bay to the Kyushu region. It marks the boundary where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Amurian Plate, making it a highly active seismic zone. Earthquakes originating from this fault are known as Nankai megathrust earthquakes and are among the most powerful and damaging in Japanese history. Historically, the Nankai Trough has produced pairs of massive earthquakes roughly every 90 to 200 years. Key events include: 1707 Hōei earthquake 1854 Ansei-Tōkai and Ansei-Nankai earthquakes (occurred one day apart) 1944 Tōnankai earthquake 1946 Nankaidō earthquake Given this cyclical pattern, scientists believe Japan is now in the window for another such major event. The densely populated Pacific coast—home to cities like Osaka, Nagoya, and Shizuoka—makes the potential human and economic toll especially alarming. Government's new disaster preparedness plan (2025) The updated plan, finalised in 2025, replaces the previous framework established in 2014. The key goals are: Reduce fatalities by 80% Cut structural damage by 50% Enhance early warning and evacuation procedures Reinforce critical infrastructure in high-risk zones The plan focuses on both earthquake preparedness and tsunami resilience, reflecting the dual threats posed by a Nankai Trough rupture. 200 target measures The plan outlines 200 specific goals, which will be evaluated annually. These include: Retrofitting vulnerable homes to earthquake-resistant standards Expanding and upgrading tsunami evacuation towers Improving early warning systems using AI and satellite data Increasing evacuation drill frequency in at-risk municipalities Stockpiling emergency supplies in coastal shelters Local governments are expected to implement these goals with financial and logistical support from the central government. Japan warns of Nankai Trough megaquake: Up to 298,000 lives at risk The Japanese government's Cabinet Office released projections in March 2025, modelling several scenarios based on different magnitudes and rupture patterns. The worst-case scenario for a magnitude 9-class earthquake along the Nankai Trough includes: Up to 298,000 deaths, including tsunami casualties 2.35 million buildings destroyed, mostly in southern Honshu and Shikoku Economic losses exceeding ¥220 trillion (approx. $1.4 trillion USD) Tsunami waves reaching heights of over 30 meters in some areas These estimates incorporate past events and current population densities, including lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, which killed nearly 20,000 people. Japan's Baba Vanga Ryo Tatsuki's prediction and public reaction In parallel with scientific concerns, public attention has been drawn by the predictions of Ryo Tatsuki, a Japanese manga artist sometimes called the 'New Baba Vanga.' Tatsuki, known for allegedly accurate past forecasts, predicted a giant seabed crack forming between Japan and the Philippines, triggering a tsunami three times larger than that of the 2011 disaster. Although Tatsuki's warnings are not supported by scientific evidence, they have fueled anxiety on social media and added urgency to national preparedness conversations. Authorities have neither confirmed nor dismissed her claims but continue to base policies on geological and seismological data. Structural and social preparedness measures Infrastructure resilience High-risk housing in coastal prefectures will be retrofitted by 2030. Tsunami shelters will be expanded and raised to accommodate higher wave models. Hospitals, schools, and public transport hubs will undergo seismic reinforcement. Emergency communication networks will be upgraded for post-quake coordination. Community readiness Evacuation drills in schools and workplaces will become mandatory biannually. Community watch programs will be funded to assist the elderly and disabled during emergencies. Mobile alert systems will be updated to cover more precise GPS-triggered warnings. Implementation and oversight The plan will be coordinated by the Cabinet Office's Central Disaster Management Council, with collaboration from: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA) Local municipal authorities Each of the 200 targets will be reviewed annually, and progress reports will be submitted to the Diet (Japanese Parliament) to maintain transparency and public accountability. Looking ahead: Japan's commitment to resilience Japan's new disaster plan represents a critical step forward in the country's ongoing efforts to safeguard lives and infrastructure in the face of inevitable natural hazards. With one of the world's most advanced seismic monitoring systems and a culture deeply familiar with disaster risk, Japan is striving to combine technological innovation, historical knowledge, and local engagement to withstand what could be one of the deadliest natural events in modern history. As the country prepares for a future that will almost certainly include another Nankai Trough megaquake, the success of this plan will depend not only on government funding and scientific forecasts but also on the willingness of citizens to engage in a nationwide culture of readiness.
Time of India
03-07-2025
- General
- Time of India
What is the Nankai Trough megaquake, the disaster warned by the 'New Baba Vanga' and how Japan is bracing for it?
What Is the Nankai Trough Megaquake? Worst-Case Scenario: 298,000 Deaths, Millions of Buildings Destroyed Live Events How Japan is Preparing for the Megaquake (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel Japan's government has formally approved a new disaster preparedness plan to brace for a catastrophic earthquake expected to strike along the Nankai Trough — a massive fault line off the country's Pacific coast. The decision was taken during a recent meeting of the Central Disaster Management Council at the Prime Minister's official residence, according to drawing even more public attention is a chilling prophecy by Ryo Tatsuki, a Japanese manga artist often referred to as the 'New Baba Vanga.' In her published predictions, Tatsuki warned that a giant seabed crack would open between Japan and the Philippines, unleashing an earthquake followed by tsunami waves 'three times taller' than those seen in the devastating 2011 Tohoku Nankai Trough megaquake refers to massive earthquakes that occur along the Nankai megathrust — the fault line marking the boundary between the subducting Philippine Sea Plate and the overriding Amurian Plate (part of the Eurasian Plate) beneath southwestern quakes typically occur every 90–200 years and often strike in pairs. Notable historical examples include the 1854 Ansei-Tokai and Ansei-Nankai earthquakes (which struck one day apart), as well as the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido quakes. At least 12 major events have been recorded in the last 1,300 to a government estimate released in March, a worst-case Nankai Trough earthquake could kill up to 298,000 people and destroy 2.35 million new basic disaster plan — which updates a 2014 version — aims to reduce potential deaths by 80% and cut structural damage by 50% over the next decade. Despite falling short of these goals in the past, the government has opted to retain the targets, citing the importance of setting high standards when lives are at Housing: All homes in high-risk zones will be made Shelters: The government will improve shelters, especially in coastal regions prone to Progress Reviews: About 200 specific targets have been set, and progress will be reviewed for Local Authorities: The central government will assist local governments in implementing safety measures.
