Latest news with #CentreforEnvironmentalPolicy
Saudi Gazette
7 days ago
- Science
- Saudi Gazette
Climate change tripled death toll of latest European heatwave, says study
BRUSSELS — An estimated 1,500 people across 12 European cities were killed by human-caused climate change during the latest heatwave, a quickfire study has found. Burning fossil fuels has made heatwaves up to 4°C hotter in Europe, tripling the number of heat-related deaths that occurred between 23 June and 2 July, according to scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. It is the first time that a rapid analysis - a type of study that measures the influence of climate change on an extreme weather event - has been carried out for a heatwave. Since the analysis covers only a dozen cities, researchers estimate that the true death toll across Europe stretched into the tens of thousands. 'It shows that climate change is an absolute game changer when it comes to extreme heat, but still very much under-recognised,' says Dr Friederike Otto, Professor in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. 'If we continue to follow the wishes of the fossil fuel industry and delay serious mitigation further, more and more people will lose their lives, for the financial benefit of only a tiny, rich, loud, influential minority.' To estimate how many excess heat deaths were caused by climate change, the researchers first analysed historical weather data to see how intense the temperatures would have been in a world that hadn't been warmed by 1.3°C. Climate change - caused primarily by the burning of oil, coal, and gas, and to a much lesser extent deforestation - made the heatwave 1-4°C hotter, they found. It's also making heatwaves strike earlier in June. Separate research from the EU's climate change service Copernicus, also published today, shows that June 2025 was the fifth hottest June on record in Europe, marked by two significant heatwaves. During the second event between 30 June and 2 July, surface air temperatures exceeded 40°C in several countries, spiralling up to 46°C in Spain and Portugal. The World Weather Attribution team then used previous research on the relationship between heat and the number of daily deaths, regardless of cause, in the 12 cities. They estimated the number of heat-related deaths in both the recent heatwave and a hypothetical cooler event over ten days. The study estimates that about 2,300 people died in the extreme temperatures across the cities, from Lisbon to Budapest. If the climate hadn't been heated up, there would be about 1,500 fewer excess deaths, meaning climate change is behind 65 per cent of these excess deaths. These numbers represent real people who have lost their lives in the last days, due to the extreme heat. 'While the number of heatwave deaths are estimated, as it is impossible to get real time statistics, they are in the right ballpark - as has been shown in many peer-reviewed studies,' Dr Otto told reporters. 'These numbers represent real people who have lost their lives in the last days, due to the extreme heat. And two-thirds of these would not have died if it wasn't for climate change.' Climate change was behind 317 of the estimated excess heat deaths in Milan, 286 in Barcelona, 235 in Paris, 171 in London, 164 in Rome, 108 in Madrid, 96 in Athens, 47 in Budapest, 31 in Zagreb, 21 in Frankfurt, 21 in Lisbon and 6 in Sassari, the findings show. This means the likely death toll was higher than other recent disasters, including last year's Valencia floods (224 deaths) and the 2021 floods in northwest Europe (243 deaths). Although the greatest number of excess deaths occurred in Milan, the highest proportion is estimated to be in Madrid: 90 per cent, due to the large increase in heat that pushed temperatures past a threshold where heat deaths increase rapidly. One reason for this is Madrid's central position in Spain, the researchers explain. The further away from the coast, the stronger the 'climate change signal' is in extreme heat - because the ocean warms slower than the land. Lisbon, by contrast, benefited from being coastal. 'This study shows that every fraction of a degree of warming makes a huge difference - whether it is 1.4, 1.5 or 1.6°C,' says Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London. 'These seemingly small changes will result in hotter heatwaves and huge surges in heat deaths.' People aged 65 and over made up 88 per cent of the deaths linked to climate change, the study reveals, highlighting how those with underlying health conditions are most at risk of premature death in heatwaves. In contrast to climate-driven floods and wildfires, heatwaves are regarded as a silent killer. 'Most people who die in heatwaves pass away at home or in hospitals as their bodies become overwhelmed and give in to pre-existing health conditions [such as heart disease, diabetes, and respiratory problems],' says Dr Malcolm Mistry, Assistant Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. But people of all ages need to take the threat seriously - contrary to what some media images of people playing on beaches might suggest. "A lot of people might feel they are invincible, but they are not," says Dr Otto. Good progress has been made in Europe on developing heat action plans, the researchers note. These national plans set out the actions that can be taken before and during dangerous high temperatures, and authorities have got better at spreading the message widely. However, to protect people from more dangerous heatwaves, long-term strategies to reduce the urban heat island effect are crucial - such as expanding green and blue spaces – as well as short-term measures like cooling centres and support systems for vulnerable citizens, they add. Ultimately, the best and most efficient measure of all is to drastically cut our greenhouse gas emissions. 'The only way to stop European heatwaves from becoming even deadlier is to stop burning fossil fuels,' says Dr Otto. 'A warming climate sure as hell makes heatwaves worse," comments Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science at the UK's University of Reading, who was not involved with the "forensic" analysis. 'Communities need to adapt to an increasingly dangerous world through more resilient infrastructure and improved warning systems, yet it is only with rapid and massive cuts in greenhouse gases through collaboration across all sectors of society that worsening of weather extremes can be reined in.' Dr Chloe Brimicombe, climate scientist at the Royal Meteorological Society, adds that, "Research like this is important and being used more in climate litigation cases where groups take countries and companies to court over climate change." — Euronews
Euronews
09-07-2025
- Science
- Euronews
Climate change tripled deaths during Europe heatwave, scientists find
An estimated 1,500 people across 12 European cities were killed by human-caused climate change during the latest heatwave, a quickfire study has found. Burning fossil fuels has made heatwaves up to 4°C hotter in Europe, tripling the number of heat-related deaths that occurred between 23 June and 2 July, according to scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. It is the first time that a rapid analysis - a type of study that measures the influence of climate change on an extreme weather event - has been carried out for a heatwave. Since the analysis covers only a dozen cities, researchers estimate that the true death toll across Europe stretched into the tens of thousands. 'It shows that climate change is an absolute game changer when it comes to extreme heat, but still very much under-recognised,' says Dr Friederike Otto, Professor in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. 'If we continue to follow the wishes of the fossil fuel industry and delay serious mitigation further, more and more people will lose their lives, for the financial benefit of only a tiny, rich, loud, influential minority.' How can heatwave deaths be estimated? To estimate how many excess heat deaths were caused by climate change, the researchers first analysed historical weather data to see how intense the temperatures would have been in a world that hadn't been warmed by 1.3°C. Climate change - caused primarily by the burning of oil, coal, and gas, and to a much lesser extent deforestation - made the heatwave 1-4°C hotter, they found. It's also making heatwaves strike earlier in June. Separate research from the EU's climate change service Copernicus, also published today, shows that June 2025 was the fifth hottest June on record in Europe, marked by two significant heatwaves. During the second event between 30 June and 2 July, surface air temperatures exceeded 40°C in several countries, spiralling up to 46°C in Spain and Portugal. The World Weather Attribution team then used previous research on the relationship between heat and the number of daily deaths, regardless of cause, in the 12 cities. They estimated the number of heat-related deaths in both the recent heatwave and a hypothetical cooler event over ten days. The study estimates that about 2,300 people died in the extreme temperatures across the cities, from Lisbon to Budapest. If the climate hadn't been heated up, there would be about 1,500 fewer excess deaths, meaning climate change is behind 65 per cent of these excess deaths. 'While the number of heatwave deaths are estimated, as it is impossible to get real time statistics, they are in the right ballpark - as has been shown in many peer-reviewed studies,' Dr Otto told reporters. 'These numbers represent real people who have lost their lives in the last days, due to the extreme heat. And two-thirds of these would not have died if it wasn't for climate change.' Where did the heatwave claim the most lives? Climate change was behind 317 of the estimated excess heat deaths in Milan, 286 in Barcelona, 235 in Paris, 171 in London, 164 in Rome, 108 in Madrid, 96 in Athens, 47 in Budapest, 31 in Zagreb, 21 in Frankfurt, 21 in Lisbon and 6 in Sassari, the findings show. This means the likely death toll was higher than other recent disasters, including last year's Valencia floods (224 deaths) and the 2021 floods in northwest Europe (243 deaths). Although the greatest number of excess deaths occurred in Milan, the highest proportion is estimated to be in Madrid: 90 per cent, due to the large increase in heat that pushed temperatures past a threshold where heat deaths increase rapidly. One reason for this is Madrid's central position in Spain, the researchers explain. The further away from the coast, the stronger the 'climate change signal' is in extreme heat - because the ocean warms slower than the land. Lisbon, by contrast, benefited from being coastal. 'This study shows that every fraction of a degree of warming makes a huge difference - whether it is 1.4, 1.5 or 1.6°C,' says Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London. 'These seemingly small changes will result in hotter heatwaves and huge surges in heat deaths.' People aged 65 and over made up 88 per cent of the deaths linked to climate change, the study reveals, highlighting how those with underlying health conditions are most at risk of premature death in heatwaves. In contrast to climate-driven floods and wildfires, heatwaves are regarded as a silent killer. 'Most people who die in heatwaves pass away at home or in hospitals as their bodies become overwhelmed and give in to pre-existing health conditions [such as heart disease, diabetes, and respiratory problems],' says Dr Malcolm Mistry, Assistant Professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. But people of all ages need to take the threat seriously - contrary to what some media images of people playing on beaches might suggest. "A lot of people might feel they are invincible, but they are not," says Dr Otto. European countries are tightening up their heat action plans Good progress has been made in Europe on developing heat action plans, the researchers note. These national plans set out the actions that can be taken before and during dangerous high temperatures, and authorities have got better at spreading the message widely. However, to protect people from more dangerous heatwaves, long-term strategies to reduce the urban heat island effect are crucial - such as expanding green and blue spaces – as well as short-term measures like cooling centres and support systems for vulnerable citizens, they add. Ultimately, the best and most efficient measure of all is to drastically cut our greenhouse gas emissions. 'The only way to stop European heatwaves from becoming even deadlier is to stop burning fossil fuels,' says Dr Otto. 'A warming climate sure as hell makes heatwaves worse," comments Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science at the UK's University of Reading, who was not involved with the "forensic" analysis. 'Communities need to adapt to an increasingly dangerous world through more resilient infrastructure and improved warning systems, yet it is only with rapid and massive cuts in greenhouse gases through collaboration across all sectors of society that worsening of weather extremes can be reined in.' Dr Chloe Brimicombe, climate scientist at the Royal Meteorological Society, adds that, "Research like this is important and being used more in climate litigation cases where groups take countries and companies to court over climate change."
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Business Standard
19-06-2025
- Health
- Business Standard
Pharma manufacturing tends to cause AMR in communities: Nick Voulvoulis
Changes are required both in manufacturing practices as well as in regulatory oversight, says Voulvoulis Sohini Das Mumbai Listen to This Article Nick Voulvoulis is professor of environmental technology at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College, London. He has collaborated with Indian institutions for research that uncovered the link between antibiotic manufacturing in the country and the rise of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Voulvoulis, in an email interview with Sohini Das, explained how low-cost antibiotics pressure manufacturers to spend on costly waste disposal. Edited excerpts: Which AMR research projects are you working on? I led a project called AMRWatch, which was one of five funded projects under the India-UK Tackling AMR in the Environment from Antimicrobial Manufacturing Waste programme funded by the
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Report: Climate change made April flooding, severe storms 9% more intense
Farm equipment is seen partially submerged on a flooded field in Ridgely, Tenn. on April 9, 2025. (Photo: Cassandra Stephenson) The effects of climate change made severe flooding that inundated West Tennessee and parts of the Central Mississippi River Valley in early April about 9% more intense, according to an analysis published Thursday by an international team of environmental researchers. From April 3 through April 6, thunderstorms and torrential downpours hovered over a broad swath of the Mississippi River Valley, leading to near-record breaking floods, widespread damage and at least 15 deaths. Those four days of rainfall are the heaviest recorded for the region in spring since 1950, according to the report published by World Weather Attribution, an international collaboration that analyzes the potential influence of climate change on extreme weather events. The study used observational data, historical records and climate models to examine how warming temperatures impact storm likelihood and intensity. Researchers also used nonprofit Climate Central's Ocean Climate Shift Index tool — based on observations and climate model data — to analyze sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico where much of the moisture fueling the storm originated, said Ben Clarke, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. Researchers compared how this type of weather event has changed between today's climate — about 1.3 degrees Celsius hotter due to warming caused by use of fossil fuels and deforestation — compared to a cooler, pre-industrial climate (1850-1900). 'When we combine the evidence, we do find an overall increasing trend in such extremes,' Clarke said. 'Similar events have become, we estimate, about 40% more likely, or, equivalently, about 9% more intense.' Clarke noted that some climate models used in the study showed a more 'mixed picture' of the effects of warmer temperatures, meaning the study's results are 'likely a conservative estimate.' While the methods used in this study are peer-reviewed, the study itself was released in the immediate aftermath of the severe weather event and has not yet been peer-reviewed itself, Clarke said. Over four days in early April, eight states saw 'relentless amounts of rain' ranging from six to 12 inches, with some locations exceeding 16 inches, Climate Central Weather and Climate Engagement Specialist Shel Winkley said. The rain fell on soil that was already saturated from late-winter rain, particularly in the Ohio River Valley, he said. In Northwest Tennessee, the small town of Rives suffered severe flooding in February, only to flood again a few weeks later. Winkley said a ridge of high pressure over the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida blocked the low pressure system producing the storm from pushing forward, essentially stalling the storm front to dump rainfall over the already-saturated ground. Early warnings from the National Weather Service very likely saved lives, Bernadette Woods-Placky, Climate Central's chief meteorologist, said. In Obion County, Tennessee, more than 100 families evacuated their homes during the event. Nearby Dyer County issued a mandatory evacuation for residents of Bogota on April 7 in anticipation of additional flooding. Woods-Placky noted that layoffs and firings were beginning to roll out in National Weather Service offices across the U.S. as part of cost-cutting measures under the Trump administration around the time these floods were happening. 'This is an example of how critical these employees are and why recent workforce cuts risk undermining their ability to keep people safe and prepared,' she said. Winkley said post-storm analyses like this are vital for protecting public safety in future events. 'It helps us really understand, is this going to be a place that's livable in the future, and if it is, how do we make sure that it's livable and safe?' he said. The 96-hour rain event was the second-highest on record for the Obion, Forked Deer and Loosahatchie Rivers (all Mississippi River tributaries), according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Dyersburg, Tennessee — the county seat of Dyer County — is prone to flooding from the North Fork of the Forked Deer River. Early April's flooding marked the third-highest flood in the town's history, according to Mayor John Holden, who has held the position for 19 years. The worst flood in Dyersburg's history occurred in 2010, wiping out multiple homes and trailer parks. The second-highest flood record was set in 1937. Historical data indicates downpours like this are 'expected to occur, on average, about once a century in today's climate with 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming,' the report states. Before the storms rolled in, the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center warned the public of 'generational' rainfall totals. But the study's authors caution that further warming could increase the likelihood that these events will no longer be expected just once in a generation. 'If warming reaches 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit), which is expected by 2100 under current policies, four-day spells of rainfall are expected to become a further 7% more intense and twice as likely,' according to a study summary. 'This is a good moment to remember that we are a water planet, and a warmer atmosphere forces more evaporation, so our atmosphere in general has more water to come down whenever there's a trigger, wherever there's a trigger,' Woods-Placky said. 'So that's why we're seeing an overall increase in heavy rain events, even to places that may not be getting wetter. The distribution of how they're getting rain is coming in these heavier buckets.' Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas were hardest hit by the early April storms, and each state requested a major disaster declaration to access FEMA assistance. Damage estimates for public property and recovery in West and Middle Tennessee exceed $26 million, according to post-storm assessments. State and local officials believe this will meet the eligibility threshold for federal public aid. Tennessee has yet to receive a decision from the Trump administration. The administration approved a major disaster declaration for Kentucky on April 24. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders requested a major disaster declaration to cover the April storms on May 3. Trump denied Sanders' earlier request for major disaster aid following storms and tornadoes in March. West Tennessee picks up pieces, awaits FEMA decision after severe storms The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency estimates around 300 homes and 14 businesses or nonprofits were severely damaged. West Tennessee mayors report hundreds of acres of flooded farmland. To illustrate the significance of the storm's 9% higher intensity that the study attributes to climate change, Imperial College London Centre for Environmental Policy Senior Climate Science Lecturer Friederike Otto refers to a separate study on Hurricane Helene. That study, published by the Grantham Institute of Climate Change and the Environment in 2024, estimated that a roughly 11% increase in wind speed due to climate change accounted for about 44% of the storm's damage in coastal Florida. Essentially, Otto said, the increase in intensity by 10% could nearly double the cost of damage. 'If that hits you (the region) once in a lifetime, I mean … that's one thing,' Otto said. 'But if that hits you twice, and it has the higher impact, that completely changes what … extreme weather can mean for a community.' SUPPORT: YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE
Malay Mail
01-05-2025
- Climate
- Malay Mail
Climate change made fire conditions twice as likely in South Korea blazes, study finds
SEOUL, May 1 — Human-induced climate change made the ultra-dry and warm conditions that fanned South Korea's deadliest wildfires in history this March twice as likely and more intense, researchers said Thursday. Vast swaths of the country's south-east were burned in a series of blazes in March, which killed 31 people and destroyed historic sites, including a some thousand-year-old temple site. The affected area had been experiencing below-average rainfall for months and was then hit by strong winds, local officials said, following South Korea's hottest year on record in 2024. The hot, dry and windy conditions that fed the flames were 'twice as likely and about 15 per cent more intense' due to human-caused climate change, said World Weather Attribution, a scientific network that studies the influence of global warming on extreme weather. 'South Korea's deadliest wildfires were made much more likely by climate change,' said Clair Barnes, a WWA researcher from the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. Officials said at the time that the conditions made it very hard for conventional firefighting methods to control the blazes, which leapt from pine tree to pine tree across dried-out hillsides. 'These unprecedented conditions exposed the limits of even well-developed suppression systems,' WWA said in a report of its findings. 'With fires increasingly likely to exceed control capacity, the emphasis must shift toward proactive risk reduction,' it added. More than 62 per cent of South Korea is covered in forest, the report said, with dense tree cover especially prominent along the eastern coast and in mountainous regions, landscapes that significantly influence how wildfires spread. Around 11 per cent of South Korea's forested areas border human settlements, the study said. 'These areas are particularly susceptible to ignition and have accounted for nearly 30 per cent of wildfires recorded between 2016 and 2022.' The researchers' findings were most conclusive regarding the increased likelihood of fire weather — which is measured by the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) — and higher maximum temperatures. But they found no attributable link between climate change and rainfall levels during the period surrounding the fires. Fires rage South Korea has few energy resources of its own and relies on imported coal — a cheap but dirty fuel — for around a third of the electricity powering it, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. The inferno in March also laid bare the country's demographic crisis and regional disparities, as rural areas are both underpopulated and disproportionately home to senior citizens. Many of the dead were seniors, and experts have warned that it will be hard for people to rebuild their lives in the burn zone. In the weeks and months since, South Korea has recorded a string of wildfires. In April, helicopters were deployed to contain a wildfire within the DMZ, the buffer zone separating the South from nuclear-armed North Korea. This week, more than 2,000 people were forced to evacuate after wildfires occurred in parts of the south-eastern city of Daegu, after a blaze broke out on Mount Hamji in the region. WWA is a pioneer in attribution science, which uses peer-reviewed methods to quickly assess the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events. This allows a comparison of observations from today's climate, with some 1.3°Celsius of warming, against computer simulations that consider the climate before humanity started burning fossil fuels in the 1800s. — AFP
