Latest news with #CentreforNearEarthObjectStudies
Daily Mirror
18 hours ago
- Science
- Daily Mirror
Huge asteroid hurtles towards the Moon and could spark 'massive consequences'
NASA says the 10-storey YR4 asteroid could hit the Moon in 2032, which could see global communications come to a complete standstill as debris makes its way into the atmosphere and destroys satellites A huge asteroid that was thought to be heading towards earth is actually on course for the moon - which could wreak digital havoc across the planet. The city killer YR4 asteroid - which is the size of a 10-storey building - was first spotted at the end of 2024 and was said to have a three per cent chance of hitting the Earth. NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies has now adjusted its prediction, giving the asteroid a 4.3 per cent chance of smashing into the moon as early as 2032. What makes it more terrifying is that the probability has been steadily increasing, after NASA gave it a 3.8 per cent probability in April and 1.7 per cent in February. According to experts, if the rock did make contact with the moon, it would have similar fallout to an atomic bomb. Scientists believe it would spark a meteor shower that could threaten our satellite systems. Australian National University astrologist and cosmologist, Brad Tucker, said just because the asteroid is no longer heading for Earth, it could still cause irreparable damage to the planet. 'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said. It's unlikely that any fragments would plummeted to Earth, there is a possibility that some debris could enter our atmosphere - putting a number of vital satellites at risk of destruction. 'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker tells Sky Australia. 'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris. We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the Moon as well.' Mr Tucker explained that new studies show how a strike with the moon could see huge amounts of debris being pulled into the atmosphere. Once there, it would make it 1,000 times more likely for a satellite to be hit. 'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact," he said. In the event of a satellite strike, the sudden loss could wreak havoc on the ground. Global connectivity would be completely lost, as would navigation systems, financial markets and military operations. YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the Moon in around 5,000 years, according to solar system dynamics expert Dr Paul Wiegert. Its collosal size means it would easily take out a space station or satellite, he said.
Sky News AU
2 days ago
- Science
- Sky News AU
‘Massive consequence': Experts reveal city-killer asteroid could collide with the moon
An asteroid the size of a 10-story building could now make impact with the moon, which would global communications and sending the planet into digital meltdown. The city-killing asteroid known as YR4 was first discovered in late 2024 and was initially given a 3 per cent chance of colliding with Earth. However, the latest observations by NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory suggested that there was now a 4.3 per cent likelihood of YR4 smashing into the moon in 2032, up from 3.8 per cent in April and 1.7 per cent in February. Scientists believe that if this occurs, the impact would be similar to a nuclear bomb, triggering an unprecedented meteor shower that could potentially put Earth's vital satellite systems in critical jeopardy. Astrologist and cosmologist at the Australian National University Brad Tucker said that while the giant rock was no longer hurtling towards Earth, there would still be disastrous consequences for the planet if the massive asteroid hit the moon. 'So, when the odds shifted away from the earth they shifted towards the moon, it's still only four per cent - it's not even four per cent [it's] just about that - it's almost 1 in 25. That's enough that you want to pay attention to,' Mr Tucker said. Mr Tucker, who has been closely following YR4's trajectory, stressed that although it remained unlikely for any debris fragments to hit the Earth's surface, rogue fragments of rock could enter the atmosphere and endanger hundreds of crucial satellites. 'We're not worried about it hitting the ground because it would be so small our atmosphere would absorb it; there's actually a worry it may hit all of those satellites that we have going around us and that would cause a problem,' Mr Tucker stated. 'There could be a massive consequence in relation to them breaking up and creating their own ring of debris.' "We shouldn't just think about the earth in terms of safety, we really must think about the moon as well.' New studies have shown the callosal amount of debris that could be pulled into the atmosphere if the moon was struck made it 1,000 times more likely a satellite would be compromised. 'So it's one of those downward scenarios where we are thinking because of the way earth is now set up it actually may still have an impact.' If satellites were suddenly lost the ramifications would be widespread, disrupting global connectivity, navigation systems, financial markets and military operations. Dr Paul Wiegert, an expert in solar system dynamics at Western University in Ontario who has studied the asteroids journey said YR4 would be the largest space rock to hit the moon 'in at least 5,000 years,' and could easily take out a satellite or a human-inhabited space station. Discussions have now begun as to how governments and space agencies can divert the asteroid's course to protect the planet. 'There's a question now of can we do a mission to alter it away from the moon, we've done that before and once we reach a certain threshold, we should consider this mission because of the moon and because of that downward impact.'
NDTV
20-06-2025
- Science
- NDTV
'City-Killer' Asteroid May Hit Moon, Hurl Deadly Debris Toward Earth
NASA scientists now believe that asteroid 2024 YR4, once thought to pose a slight threat to Earth, may instead collide with the Moon in the coming years. New calculations suggest a 4.3% chance of impact in 2031. First detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System in Hawaii, YR4 passed close to Earth just two days earlier. It orbits the Sun every four years. Recent observations in May 2025 from the James Webb Space Telescope estimate the asteroid's size between 174 and 220 feet (53-67 metres), roughly the height of a 10-storey building or the wingspan of a Boeing 747. Earlier estimates ranged from 131 to 295 feet. Data from NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicate the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon has steadily risen from 1.7% in February to 3.8% in April, and now to 4.3%. If it does impact the Moon, it's expected to strike the near side, offering a rare chance for scientists to observe crater formation in real time. For now, YR4 is too distant to be tracked by telescopes. It will next approach Earth again in December 2028. "While an Earth impact by 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 has now been ruled out, it continues to have a non-zero probability of impacting the Moon at this time," the researchers wrote in their preliminary report, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered rare, once holding over a 1% impact probability-an extremely unusual threat level. NASA data suggests such an event would occur roughly once in 1,000 years. It's been compared to asteroid Apophis, which once ranked Level 4 on the Torino scale. Apophis will pass close to Earth in 2029, offering a rare visual encounter.
Euronews
30-01-2025
- Science
- Euronews
A newly spotted asteroid has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032
A newly discovered asteroid has a tiny chance of hitting Earth in 2032, according to space agency officials. Scientists put the odds of a strike at slightly more than 1 per cent. 'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 per cent chance it will miss," said Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Centre for Near Earth Object Studies, on Wednesday. 'But it deserves attention'. First spotted last month by a telescope in Chile, the near-Earth asteroid – designated 2024 YR4 – is estimated to be 130 to 330 feet (40 to 100 metres) across. Scientists are keeping a close watch on the space rock, which is currently heading away from Earth. As the asteroid's path around the sun becomes better understood, Chodas and others said there's a good chance the risk to Earth could drop to zero. The asteroid will gradually fade from view over the next few months, according to NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). Until then, some of the world's most powerful telescopes will keep monitoring it to better determine its size and path. Once out of sight, it won't be visible until it passes our way again in 2028. The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day – passing within roughly 800,000 kilometres of Earth, about twice the distance of the moon. It was discovered two days later. Chodas said scientists are poring over sky surveys from 2016 when predictions show the asteroid also ventured close. If scientists can find the space rock in images from then, they should be able to determine whether it will hit or miss the planet, he told The Associated Press. 'If we don't find that detection, the impact probability will just move slowly as we add more observations,' he said. Earth gets clobbered by an asteroid this size every few thousand years, according to ESA, with the potential for severe damage. That's why this one now tops ESA's asteroid risk list. The potential impact would occur on December 22, 2032. It's much too soon to know where it might land if it did hit Earth. The good news, according to NASA, is that for now, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 per cent.
