Latest news with #ChadJennings
New York Times
2 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB trade deadline Big Board 3.0: The Top 50 players who could be on the move
By Tim Britton, Aaron Gleeman, Chad Jennings and Eno Sarris There's just over one week left until the MLB trade deadline, and one week until we find out. After months of speculation, the vapor of rumor will clarify into honest-to-goodness action, as executives around the league reveal how they really feel about their teams. Advertisement It's the best week of the regular season. Welcome to the third and final version of our Trade Deadline Big Board. Since our last Big Board in the second week of July, we've seen the Red Sox rise and the Rays retreat, the Brewers billow and the Giants stumble. Nobody from the middle of the AL Central has stepped forward, and neither Atlanta nor Baltimore has made a compelling case to chase after preseason expectations. We're still largely looking at players on teams with less than a 30 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. In many instances, the question is less about whether the team will sell than the extent of that teardown. But we're also keeping an eye on teams that may thread the needle and seek to move a major-league player off its roster while adding a better fit elsewhere. So that's why there are players here on teams we still expect to be net buyers. Some bookkeeping: The player's listed age is how old he was on June 30, B/T is the classic bats/throws, the money owed is via Baseball Prospectus and covers only the days after July 31, the WARs are updated through Sunday and from FanGraphs, the likelihood of being dealt is a best-guess projection (from red as unlikely through yellow to green as likely) and the rankings are beyond reproach. Value: Team-controlled front-line starter Analysis: Minnesota isn't itching to move Ryan, who is 29 and under team control for two seasons beyond this one, but it's easy to understand why teams will be calling the Twins about him just in case. Coming off his first All-Star honor, Ryan is a proven front-line starter with a career 3.67 ERA who pounds the zone and racks up whiffs, posting MLB's seventh-best K/BB ratio since his 2021 debut. Ryan might be effectively off limits even if the Twins are in seller mode, but some contenders could try to blow them away with an offer. Among all qualified starters the past two seasons, Ryan ranks second to only Tarik Skubal in K/BB ratio (6.1/1) and is also fourth in opponents' batting average (.207) and 10th in ERA (3.15). Value: Controllable do-everything outfielder Analysis: To be clear: There's little reason for Boston to even entertain offers for Duran unless the return is substantial. His production has predictably fallen short of his 2024 breakout, but Duran remains a solidly above-average hitter with lots of speed and the ability to play center field. Perhaps most importantly, he's under team control through 2028, making him a player that teams can build around. Of course, even with a sudden influx of stud prospects joining the lineup, the Red Sox could continue to build around him, too. The Padres have already been linked to Duran and surely they won't be alone. Value: Reliable right-handed power bat Analysis: Even if the Diamondbacks don't sell all their impending free agents, moving Suárez to acquire future help while maneuvering with other deals to buttress the roster would be the kind of thing Mike Hazen has done before, most notably when he traded away Zack Greinke in 2019 but also brought in Mike Leake and Zac Gallen. Nobody on this list has hit more career homers than Suárez or more homers since the start of 2023. Rafael Devers will end up as the best bat moved this season. Suárez has a solid case for No. 2. Value: Top five (at least) closer in baseball Analysis: If you haven't checked in a while, you might remember that Clase was having a shockingly bad season. He finished the month of April with twice as many earned runs as he allowed all of last year. But that's changed. Since the beginning of May, the righty has a low-ones ERA with his customary command and stuff, and zero homers allowed. Clase is an institution in Cleveland and is signed through 2026 with $10-million club options in '27 and '28, so he'll probably stay put — but that salary still makes him more likely to move than teammate (and eventual replacement?) Cade Smith on that league minimum contract. A low-spending team like the Guardians might have to cash in while they're having a sub-.500 season. Value: Elite defender with pop Analysis: Abreu, like Duran, could become expendable in Boston thanks to the wave of young bats. But he's also young enough (26) and under team control for long enough (2029) to be part of the Red Sox's long-term plan, putting them in the driver's seat for any potential negotiations. Even if the Red Sox are open to trading Abreu, there's no rush to do so now. He's putting up very good numbers at the plate that are in line with his strong rookie showing, and he will be in the mix for a second Gold Glove Award and won't even be arbitration eligible until 2027. Value: Flame-throwing closer Analysis: Duran has three dominant pitches and the unhittable results to match, pairing a triple-digit fastball with two swing-and-miss breaking balls for a 2.40 ERA in four MLB seasons. Minnesota's closer for the past three years, Duran often overpowers hitters. And until Shohei Ohtani got to him on Tuesday night, he had gone more than 70 innings (dating back to last season) without allowing a homer. Duran is one of the league's best relievers, still cheap and under team control through 2027, so the Twins will likely ask for the moon and might be able to get it somewhere. He has the ability to transform an entire bullpen and ranks second to Devin Williams in reliever Win Probability Added since 2022. Value: Late bloomer in the rotation Analysis: Lugo had a breakout season in 2024, pitching more than 200 innings with a 3.00 ERA and finishing second in AL Cy Young Award voting. Now 35, his surface-level numbers are almost identical this year. The pitch and batted ball data suggest he's not been as good as a year ago, but Lugo has remained plenty effective. He has a player option for 2026 he's unlikely to exercise barring injury, meaning the right-hander should be considered a rental. Value: Solid mid-rotation starter Analysis: On a staff that's lost Corbin Burnes and can't find the proper versions of Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez, it's Kelly that's been the standout. He's got a deep six-pitch mix and command, and is producing numbers that don't look out of place given his upper-threes career ERA, but he doesn't quite have the stuff and strikeout numbers of a Game 1 or even a Game 2 October starter. He could be the first to go if the Diamondbacks sell, however, since he's a free agent at the close of the season. Value: Cy Young winner searching for form Analysis: Which version of Alcantara is actually on the market? The 2022 Cy Young winner excelled then by keeping the ball in the park and on the ground. But he took a step back in 2023, went under the knife for Tommy John surgery and has returned this year without the command that makes his mix work. He ditched his slider earlier this year and started to look like the Sandy of old — right up until this most recent blip, in which he's given up almost a run per inning over four starts. Since June 1, the walk rate is one-third of what it was before then, and so there's reason to believe Alcantara's worst is behind him. He isn't a pitcher who strikes out the lineup, but he is a potential playoff starter, and the supply of those is very limited this deadline. Value: Bat-missing set-up man Analysis: Jax has had an odd year as the Twins' primary set-up man, posting a mediocre ERA despite 14.2 strikeouts per nine innings and just four homers allowed. It stems largely from an unsustainably high .379 BABIP, aside from which he's been a high-end reliever for the fourth straight season. Trading away Jax would signal full-on sell mode for the Twins, because he's under team control through 2027 and every bit as essential to their bullpen as Jhoan Duran. Weird innings seem to always find Jax at bad times, but he has a 3.19 ERA with 308 strikeouts in 251 frames since becoming a full-time reliever. Value: Rising star fulfilling potential Analysis: Nobody on this list is pitching better right now than Cabrera, whose ERA is just above two since the final week of May. There's good reason to believe this is a real transformation: Cabrera dropped his arm slot, added a sinker, and moved to the curve over the slider. He's not walking nearly as many hitters as he used to. All this makes it both harder to trade the right-hander, who's under team control through 2028, and more tantalizing to do so for a higher-quality return. Value: Dependable starter signed through 2028 Analysis: Drafted in 2014 and signed to an extension 10 years later, Keller is a homegrown Pirates starter who made an All-Star team in 2023 and has finished with an ERA between 3.90 and 4.25 in each of the past four seasons. He's not an ace, but he's a dependable arm with team control through his early 30s (his extension goes through 2028). The Pirates have enough young pitching to consider moving one of their more established starters, and Keller has a blend of consistency and contractual control that teams covet. Value: Proven starter having down season Analysis: Gallen's inconsistent season has mirrored Arizona's on the whole. Each time he looks like his old self, he follows it up with a string of pedestrian outings. The stuff has really regressed, and the peripheral numbers support an ERA that lives in the mid-to-high fours. So an acquiring team here is really betting on the track record of a 29-year-old who, until this season, had always been good. Gallen is a free agent at the end of the season. Value: Power bat from the middle infield Analysis: Few teams have seen their playoff odds fluctuate as much as Tampa Bay over the last two months. The Rays are one of the clear in-between teams at this deadline, and that's a status they seized on just last year (albeit with worse playoff odds than currently). The market is similarly bereft of impact bats, and Lowe would provide a jolt for a contender. Lowe is on pace to hit 30 homers for the first time since 2021. He's still better suited to sit against lefties, and advanced metrics are very down on his second-base defense this season. Healthy through the first three months of the season, Lowe has required a pair of IL stints in July for oblique tightness and ankle tendinitis. His current absence is not expected to last long into August, if at all. Value: Contact maestro and Gold Glover Analysis: A Guardians team in desperate need of offensive production, especially from the outfield, dealing Kwan would qualify as a significant surprise. However, there have been enough conversations around Kwan — and the market is so lacking of offensive production — that perhaps Cleveland gets a deal it can't turn down for the All-Star. Kwan's contact skills make him unique in the sport; he almost never swings and misses, let alone strikes out. However, his overall offense has taken a step back from last season, thanks in part to a wrist injury he's been nursing since May. He's been just over 5 percent better than the league average. While he's a Gold Glover in left field, Kwan's lack of power would probably be more acceptable to an acquiring team if he could play center more often. Value: Lefty hitter in career year Analysis: Whatever has gone wrong in Baltimore this season, it has not been O'Hearn's fault. In 2025, the pending free agent has been as good a hitter as anyone on this list, putting together a career year at an opportune time. He's maintained most of the drop in strikeout rate he displayed last season, he's added to what was then a doubling of his previous walk rate, and he's performed well enough that his expected numbers align with his improvement across the board. While he's seen more at-bats against left-handed pitching this season, he's still much better suited to being the long half of a platoon at first or DH. Value: Solid middle-of-the-order contributor Analysis: Traded last winter to Arizona after making his first All-Star team, Naylor is in the midst of perhaps his best season. His average is up around .300 thanks to some better batted-ball luck and his strikeout rate is way down. Only a dozen qualified hitters strike out less often than Naylor, and among them only Mookie Betts and his old teammate José Ramírez hit with his kind of power. (That's never bad company to keep.) Value: Long-term fix at catcher Analysis:When the Braves traded for and immediately extended Murphy in December 2022, it would have been hard to imagine they'd consider trading him less than three years later. But Atlanta's 2025 chances keep getting slimmer, and the homegrown Drake Baldwin has emerged as a worthy replacement behind the plate. All of that makes Murphy an exceedingly rare commodity: an everyday catcher who was recently an All-Star and is in the midst of another strong season. At a position of scarcity, Murphy could be a short-term solution with long-term impact. Value: All-Star reliever returning to form Analysis: Optioned to Triple A on the first day of April, Bednar rebounded to be named the NL's Reliever of the Month in June. His ERA since returning to the majors in mid-April is under two, and the right-hander has made 2024's rough campaign look like an aberration. He's striking out more than a third of opposing hitters and is showcasing the best walk rate of his career. Value: All-around center fielder Analysis: Mullins doesn't hit for high averages, but he has 20-homer power and 30-steal speed, and few center fielders have a more impressive highlight reel of jaw-dropping catches. As a 30-year-old impending free agent, he might not be part of Baltimore's plans any longer. Legit center fielders with above-average bats are typically very hard to find at the deadline. But the Orioles could opt to keep Mullins and take their chances with draft-pick compensation via the qualifying offer. Either way, they won't have much motivation to move Mullins for a marginal return. Value: Slumping former All-Star Analysis: Perhaps the season has gone south enough for Atlanta and for Albies that a player with notoriously inexpensive team control through 2027 becomes available. Albies is in the midst of his worst big-league season by far, and since 2022, he's posted a league-average OPS while missing significant time with injuries. There's still value in the talent and the contract for an acquiring team, and Atlanta's farm system could use a kickstart. Value: Right-handed power hitter Analysis: Seemingly an annual candidate to be moved at the deadline, Ward is a good right-handed power bat whose late-blooming career path has him under team control through 2026 despite already being 31. Ward has 25-homer power, generally crushing left-handers and holding his own against right-handers while posting an above-average OPS+ for the fifth straight season. But will the Angels finally decide to move him? Value: Elite bat for hire Analysis: As an impending free agent who slugged 79 homers the last two years, Ozuna's the most obvious piece for disappointing Atlanta to move. However, outside of a significant jump in walk rate, everything else is down this season. He's on pace for barely 20 homers as a strict DH, and his OPS has steadily declined since early June. He's been sitting of late. Ozuna also has 10-and-5 rights, allowing him to veto any trade. Value: High-end super-utility player Analysis: Castro can play anywhere, making at least 50 career starts at seven positions, and he's a switch hitter with good speed and an above-average bat, posting a 111 wRC+ in three years with the Twins. That makes him a smooth fit in just about any lineup as either a high-end utility player or a solid regular. Value: High-stuff young starter with potential Analysis: Teams don't usually trade 24-year-old righties that sit 96 and have struck out over a quarter of the batters they've seen while starting for a team in the AL East, but the Rays aren't normal like that. The Rays will also know that Bradley has poor command that isn't improving, that he hasn't developed an elite out pitch yet, that his stuff is declining already, and that his strikeout rate has started to look pedestrian. Then again, so will the other teams. Value: Closer with strong track record Analysis: Helsley figured to be one of the big fish available at the deadline — at least until the Cardinals perched themselves firmly in the postseason picture early in the season. St. Louis said recently it doesn't intend to deal from its bullpen, but it will re-assess throughout July — and their playoff odds have been steadily dropping throughout the month. A closer who's received down-ballot Cy Young votes in two of the last three seasons, Helsley hasn't been as sharp in 2025, with five blown saves. Unlike some other Cardinals, he'd be a pure rental. Value: Steady late-inning reliever Analysis: A mainstay of the Rays bullpen since 2019, Fairbanks has risen from middle-inning depth to late-inning stopper to go-to closer. His strikeout rate is down slightly, but Fairbanks still has good fastball velocity and an effective slider, and he's been consistent the past two seasons. He's never allowed many home runs, and didn't allow his first one this season until July 11. Acquiring teams could see him as a closer or as a veteran setup man, and his contract includes a $7 million team option to 2026. Value: Excellent defender at the hot corner Analysis: So we're gonna go out on a limb and suggest maybe, maybe, the Rockies should sell at this deadline. Part of Colorado's current malaise owes to front office inactivity at prior deadlines, and McMahon might be its best piece to dangle this time around. By now, McMahon is who he is as a hitter, striking out too much and producing at a level just below league average. But he's an outstanding defender and the kind of complementary piece that could help a contender into October. Value: High-end fourth outfielder Analysis: Laureano is having a terrific season at the plate. What's puzzling is the way he's doing it. The past two years established him as a platoon fourth outfielder to play against lefties, but this season he's hit far better against righties (still solid against lefties, but he's crushing right-handers). He's become more of a corner outfielder but can still play center, making him a strong fourth outfielder or second-tier regular with upside (if he can maintain these numbers against righties). Value: Top defensive outfielder with some pop Analysis: This trade market could be thin on outfielders, especially right-handed-hitting outfielders. Bader could help fill that void. He remains a very strong defender, capable of playing left, right or center, and he's been a slightly above-league-average hitter with enough power to be dangerous. He also can still run a little bit. The total package is a solid outfield regular. Value: Versatile veteran arm Analysis: Martinez won't wow you with stuff — his vulcan changeup is the only pitch that's above average in that regard — but he throws six pitches with good command of each. Despite his poor strikeout rate, he's been able to limit the walk rate and keep hitters guessing enough that they don't do lots of damage when they connect. While this year hasn't gone as well as the end of last season did for Martinez, he returned from a brief stint in the bullpen by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in his last start of June. He has a lot of experience as a starter and as a reliever in the same season, and his versatility makes him a great pickup for a team that just needs an arm to help it get to October. Value: Emerging force in bullpen Analysis: The primary results have caught up to the peripheral ones for Detmers, who carried a 22-inning stretch without allowing an earned run for nearly two months. The lefty has above-average Stuff+ on three different deliveries as well as above-average Location+. His strikeout rate during his outstanding June was just under 40 percent. An under-the-radar candidate in June, Detmers now may be too good for the Angels to move. Value: Versatile arm seeking consistency Analysis: Soroka was an under-the-radar target for a lot of teams last winter, thanks to the outstanding second half he'd put together as a reliever for the White Sox. Moved back to the rotation in Washington, he's dealt with another injury (a biceps strain this time) and some inconsistency. Despite a pedestrian ERA, Soroka still excels at a lot of things teams really value today: He owns good strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rates, and he keeps the ball off the barrel. Plus, his experience last season makes Soroka a flexible fit: He can fill out your rotation in the short term and then slide to the bullpen later in the year. Value: Low-walk, low-strikeout starting pitcher Analysis: In a 12-year professional career, Littell has been traded twice, sold once, and claimed off waivers. He's also been a free agent two times. But if he changes teams again at the deadline, it will finally be a transaction you actually notice. That's because Littell has emerged from obscurity to become yet another productive Rays starter. He's given up a lot of home runs this year, and doesn't strike out many batters, but doesn't walk many either, and he's consistently minimized damage through two-plus seasons in the Rays rotation. The Rays are very much in the playoff hunt, but they also have some Triple-A rotation depth in Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour, and ace Shane McClanahan could return from the IL sometime after the deadline. The team's roster-churning style could lead them to deal Littell before he becomes a free agent at season's end. Value: Back-end rotation stability Analysis: A once-touted prospect who quietly became a two-time All-Star in his 30s, Anderson is a dependable back-end starter for a contender in need of rotation stability. He has roughly league-average numbers (100 ERA+), but he's also tied for the second-most starts in the majors, and he's allowed more than four runs only three times. Anderson is rarely dominant but typically steady, which has value as teams worry about workload and depth down the stretch. His contract expires at the end of the year, which surely increases the motivation for the Angels — who are vaguely in contention — to consider moving him. Value: Right-handed power hitter Analysis: García is a below-average hitter for the second straight season, and at 32 it's possible his middle-of-the-order days are over. But the two-time All-Star still has big power and remains an excellent defensive outfielder with a great arm. Memories of his amazing 2023 postseason run could convince some teams to bet on there being gas left in the tank. And if García gets back on track in the second half, his new club would have him under 2026 control via arbitration. Value: Resurgent veteran starter Analysis: The curveball never left him, but Charlie Morton's fastball seemed like it was gone for good in the early goings this year. He was sent to the pen for a bit, and he pulled his fastball velocity back up to the nintey-fours and -fives again, where it stayed when he returned to the rotation. Since that day, he's sporting a 3.69 ERA with the peripherals to support it. Interested teams will also note, however, that the velocity has been dipping again in the last two starts and may have had something to do with a bad outing against the Rays. Value: Closer for hire Analysis: Top five saves since 2023, Estévez is a proven closer who's remained effective despite losing a mph off his fastball this season. His strikeouts are down, and batted ball data suggests he's been a bit lucky in run prevention, but he's done a good enough job limiting base runners to be an All-Star for the second time in his career. Estévez is signed through next season with a team option for 2027, so an acquiring team would be banking on him remaining effective at last one more season. Value: Left-handed platoon bat Analysis: Overall, Sánchez is a slightly above-average hitter, but he has one superpower: He hits right-handers especially well. The past three seasons, Sánchez's wRC+ against righties is on par with Eugenio Suárez, Julio Rodríguez and Steven Kwan. He's maintained strong splits against righties this year. Sánchez doesn't hit lefties — he's been especially bad against them this year — but he's a decent corner outfielder with a good arm, and he's plenty productive in a platoon. He also has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, meaning teams can acquire him as more than a short-term rental. Value:Injured former All-Star center fielder Analysis: Robert has struggled since being a first-time All-Star in 2023, batting in the low .200s with a sub-.650 OPS and 32 percent strikeout rate. That makes his deadline value tricky to assess in the final guaranteed season of his contract, but the White Sox should be motivated to get whatever value they can. It's getting harder to imagine any contender viewing his $20 million team options for 2026 and 2027 as valuable. His defense and speed still shine at 27, and Robert still has plenty of raw power, but his strike-zone control going from bad to worse makes him a deadline wild card. Value: Light-hitting center fielder Analysis: Thomas' middling bat and Arizona's strong outfield depth could create the right conditions for trading the former Top 100 prospect. He may always be a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but teams that view Thomas as a legit glove in center field will be just fine to fill the position with someone under team control through 2028. Value: Left-handed platoon bat Analysis: Larnach isn't much of a fielder in either corner spot and doesn't hit lefties, but his .785 OPS versus righties the past two seasons would boost plenty of lineups with a mix of power and patience. He's under team control through 2027, but the Twins might be ready to move on from the 2018 first-round pick after years of average-ish hitting. Value: Veteran mid-rotation starter Analysis: The Orioles have probably dug too far a hole and have too much long-term work to do on their pitching staff for the organization to hold expiring deals for a slim playoff chance at the deadline. With Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton all finishing their deals at the end of the season, it behooves Baltimore to get whatever prospect arms it can, preferably on the higher-upside, lower-floor spectrum of things. Unfortunately for Eflin, a brutal three-start stretch at the end of June led to an IL stint for back discomfort, which is why a starter with his track record has a ranking this low. Value: Young lefty starter with an extra year of control Analysis: The good news is that Trevor Rogers got back the tick that he lost last year on his fastball, isn't even due a million bucks over the rest of the season, and also comes with an extra year of team control. The bad news is that his current results aren't really supported by his peripherals. His strikeout minus walk rate is almost exactly average, as is his fastball velocity (even when compared solely to lefty starters). Other than the addition of a sweeper — which is usually a pitch you avoid throwing to opposite-handed hitters — his arsenal is unchanged from the one that has produced an exactly league average park-adjusted ERA over his entire career. But, hey, league average. For cheap. Value: Reliever excelling for bad team Analysis: It's too bad the rest of the roster is what it is, because Colorado's bullpen isn't half-bad. And Bird's been the best of that group, with a strikeout rate near 30 percent and a ground-ball rate just under 50 percent. His park-adjusted FIP is in line with that of Emmanuel Clase. Bird's slider against righties and curveball against lefties are each effective, rendering him platoon-neutral. He's not even in arbitration yet, so an acquiring team would control him through 2028. Value: Soft-tossing lefty starter Analysis: Patrick Corbin. Andrew Heaney. Jeffrey Springs. Take your pick if you want a lefty starter who can help you get to the postseason before turning into a matchups play or long reliever in October. There's not that much difference in terms of stuff, predictive process numbers, or projections between the three. Springs has had the best recent season of the group, but he's also lost a lot of velocity and isn't quite the same guy he was when he was so good in 2022. Value: High chase rate out of bullpen Analysis: After bouncing through four other organizations in a four-year span, Santana has unlocked something with Pittsburgh. Since being claimed by the Pirates last June, he's exchanged his sinker for a four-seamer, thrown his slider more than any other pitch, and become a top-10 reliever in the sport with an ERA in line with those of Edwin Díaz and Jason Adam. He makes up for an average strikeout rate by not handing out free passes. Most appealing might be the way he's become a menace to left-handed batters, who are hitting below .100 against him this season without an extra-base hit. Value: Batting champ in down season Analysis: We should be clear: We expect the Padres to be buyers. But we can envision a scenario in which San Diego looks to move money off its current roster to add it elsewhere, and Arraez, with his larger salary and imperfect defensive fit, makes the most sense for that kind of move. (That's why Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez aren't on this list.) Arraez is a throwback, a no-true-outcomes player who puts the ball in play in more than 90 percent of his plate appearances. A batting champion in each of the last three seasons, he's ridden those contact skills to above-average offensive production each year of his career. Until this one, so far, where he's hitting below .300 for the first time since 2021. Arraez has also slipped down the defensive spectrum to where he's a first baseman now, where the offensive bar is much higher to clear. Value: Switch-hitter with a long contract Analysis: Reynolds is three years into the largest contract in team history, so any acquiring team would have to be cool with the $76 million he's owed over the five seasons after this one. That's not necessarily a bad rate for a switch-hitter who was 20 percent better than the league average with 25 homers per year from 2022 through 2024. This year has been worse, largely because of a hideous 2-for-45 stretch in early May. Since then, his OPS is over .800. Value: Oft-injured veteran starter Analysis: An impending free agent two seasons removed from his second Tommy John surgery, Paddack shows flashes of front-line upside but hasn't posted an ERA better than league average or surpassed 110 innings since 2019. He's not part of the Twins' future plans and can fill out the back of a contender's rotation. Dropped from the previous Big Board: Alex Bregman (2), Aroldis Chapman (19), Ramón Urías (34), Chris Martin (35), Lucas Giolito (36) (Illustration of Eugenio Suárez, Joe Ryan and Zac Gallen: Will Tullos / The Athletic; Images: Christian Petersen, Matt Krohnx / Getty Images, Houston Astros)
New York Times
3 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Tigers. Cubs. Brewers. Sheesh! Plus: second-half storylines to watch
By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. Ah, the start of the second half. Inexperienced baseball fans pay far too much attention to the first week of the season, but the seasoned nerds among us know that it's the first week of the second half that deserves outsized scrutiny and complaints. There's a gap of almost a full week between real games, which builds the anticipation up like a kinked garden hose. And then, whammo, all the baseball you can handle, and now every game means twice as much. It feels that way, at least. Let's rank powers and see who is up and down to start the second half. Record: 60-41 Last Power Ranking: 2 Second-half storyline: How many of these breakout seasons will last? Twenty-two players have taken at least one plate appearance for the Detroit Tigers this year. Of those 22, seven are on pace for (or have already surpassed) their career high in bWAR. Of those who have not, you have Riley Greene, who is on pace for 4.4 bWAR (still pretty good!) and Javier Báez, for whom — after the last couple of years — 'on pace for 3.2 bWAR' feels kind of like a miracle. Advertisement Let's do the pitchers: 23 (not counting position players) have thrown at least one pitch for Detroit. Of those, you have nine on pace for new career highs. To be fair, that number includes some first-year rookies, but it also includes Tarik Skubal, who won the AL Cy Young Award last year. Of the pitchers who aren't on pace for career highs? Casey Mize, who had a pretty good 2021 but has been mostly derailed by injuries since. Like Báez, his 'on pace for' 2.4 WAR seems like a big win for Detroit. — Levi Weaver Record: 59-41 Last Power Ranking: 4 Second-half storyline: Now if they can just stick the landing… The Cubs have had a lot of things go right in the first half: Pete Crow-Armstrong is a legitimate star, Matthew Boyd is an All-Star, Seiya Suzuki is roughing up opposing pitchers; literally Drew Pomeranz — who, again, last pitched in the big leagues in 2021 — is pitching like a bullpen bully. They've also had some bad luck. Justin Steele is out for the year. Shota Imanaga has also spent some time on the IL. Matt Shaw hasn't fully blossomed. Ian Happ has been good-but-not-great as a leadoff hitter. So it has to feel good to come out of the gate in the second half by winning two of three, laying claim to the best record in the National L— excuse me, what are you guys doing here?!?! — Weaver Record: 59-42 Last Power Ranking: 1 Second-half storyline: Just how much can they get out of Shohei Ohtani (the pitcher)? Before the season started, the idea of Ohtani returning to the mound for the Dodgers seemed like a quaint midseason development. Certainly, they weren't going to need him, and they could use him however they wanted. Then 80 percent of their rotation fell into a wheat thresher, and suddenly he's looking like the best option to start one of the first two games of a postseason series. He just needs to ramp up his strength and go through the command funkiness that every Tommy John recovery comes with. Advertisement No pressure. But also, all of the pressure. Let's get stretched out, and don't stop hitting dingers along the way. — Grant Brisbee Record: 60-40 Last Power Ranking: 10 Second-half storyline: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? There's a philosophical belief that all pain and suffering comes from the inability to let go or release. Whether that be hopes and dreams, people, possessions, desires — the need to cling to whatever you believe will bring you fulfillment is where the problem begins, and true enlightenment comes from understanding the temporal nature of all things, and your relationship to all things (which is also temporal). If you can explain what the Brewers are doing in any simpler terms, I invite you to fill in for me next time I'm responsible for their blurb in these Power Rankings. In last Friday's Windup, I added up the bWAR of 12 former Brewers around the league, and it added up to 14.5 bWAR, or — at the time — the combination of Aaron Judge (7.1) Shohei Ohtani (4.3) and Jacob deGrom (3.1). So maybe they've figured out something the rest of us haven't. Or maybe they'll crash and burn in the second half. For now, after Monday's win over the Mariners, they have the best record in baseball, and it's blowing my mind. — Weaver Record: 57-43 Last Power Ranking: 3 Second-half storyline: Is this the year? The Phillies have been one of the best teams in baseball the past three years, and they're making it four in a row this season. Once again, the Phillies have arguably the best rotation in baseball; their offensive trio of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner is also among the best. According to FanGraphs, only the Dodgers have meaningfully better World Series odds. But the past three seasons have ended in disappointment, and the Phillies have been eliminated earlier and earlier in the postseason. This is a championship-or-bust era for the Phillies. They've been very good, but they're still missing a ring. Is this the year it changes? And how aggressive will they be at the deadline in pursuit of a championship? — Chad Jennings Record: 55-45 Last Power Ranking: 7 Second-half storyline: What does 'going to town' mean? A little before the All-Star break, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman addressed the team's approach to the trade deadline by saying, 'We're going to town. We're going to do everything we possibly can to improve ourselves and try to match up.' With the Yankees, 'going to town' can mean a pretty big splash. Their farm system isn't great, but they're always a threat to take on salary to make big-ticket acquisitions possible. They've also been, at times, really good this season (at other times, maddeningly inconsistent). Undoubtedly, the Yankees will do something, and probably something substantial. But will it be enough to make them World Series favorites down the stretch? Clearly, they need help. The Yankees got back to the World Series last year but haven't won a championship since 2009. — Jennings Record: 59-41 Last Power Ranking: 8 Second-half storyline: Is this team this good? Pretty basic question, really, but the Blue Jays are a puzzle. A 10-game winning streak in the weeks before the All-Star break boosted them into first place, but as of late May, they were a sub-.500 team with a roughly 70 percent chance of missing the playoffs. Even now, their run differential is somewhere between that of the Reds and Giants, which isn't exactly elite company. The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox have been far better at outscoring their opponents. To be in first place in the AL East is impressive, and usually a sign of a legitimate World Series contender. Should we really think of the Blue Jays that way? And can they do something at the trade deadline to convince us one way or the other? — Jennings Advertisement Record: 58-42 Last Power Ranking: 5 Second-half storyline: Will there be an AL West race? For a second, it looked like the Astros were going to run away with the sucker, leading by as many as seven games in the week before the All-Star break. A brutal homestand against the Guardians and Rangers, followed by a series loss against the Mariners on the road, has changed the calculus. The Mariners aren't nipping at their heels, but they're close enough to start tensing their jaw muscles. They'll need deadline help, and it'll probably be on the offensive side, even though they have nearly a full rotation on the 60-day IL. They'll worry about the pitching, but someone else is going to bring the hitting. — Brisbee Record: 57-44 Last Power Ranking: 6 Second-half storyline: Is the rotation good enough? As of June 13, the Mets had the second-best record in baseball — best in the National League — in large part because of their rotation, which was elite with a 2.78 ERA. No other big league rotation had an ERA below 3.00. Kodai Senga was the league leader in ERA at that point, with David Peterson and Clay Holmes also in the top 20. But the Mets' rotation stumbled in the second half of June and into the All-Star break. Its ERA jumped to 5.31 with Senga and Tylor Megill hurt. Now, Senga is healthy again, Sean Manaea is finally active and Peterson is a first-time All-Star. With Holmes and Frankie Montas, do the Mets have enough starting pitching? If not, does this trade market have the front-end arm that could make a significant difference? — Jennings Record: 54-48 Last Power Ranking: 14 Second-half storyline: Is their outfield a wasted logjam or valuable depth? This storyline could extend into the offseason, but in the short term, it's a fascinating factor in the team's approach to the trade deadline and the final analysis of all that comes after. The Red Sox are an interesting but imperfect team (as evidenced by their stunning Rafael Devers trade in June). They need pitching (again), their first baseman is hurt (again), and their middle infield is a weird combination of talent without immediate results. But their outfield is overflowing, especially since the arrival of top prospect Roman Anthony to play alongside Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela. Advertisement The Red Sox could trade from that depth to address a more glaring need. If they do, and someone gets hurt, they'll look suddenly thin. If they don't and miss the playoffs, they will have perhaps missed an opportunity to improve. The ball's in your court, Craig Breslow. — Jennings Record: 53-47 Last Power Ranking: 13 Second-half storyline: Forget the all-time record for catchers — can Big Dumper get to 60 homers? Salvador Pérez holds the record for 48 catcher home runs, a record he set in 2021. Cal Raleigh is just 10 homers behind that with more than 60 games to go. Assuming regular health, that's a record that's as good as broken. Can he get to 60, though? That's much trickier. Every slugger hits a dry patch; Raleigh's just hasn't come yet. Maybe it'll never come, and he's certainly on pace. Another storyline to watch is with the Mariners' postseason chase, but in a way, that's a part of the same storyline. — Brisbee Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 9 Second-half storyline: Is Shane McClanahan the sport's biggest trade deadline addition? No one is suggesting the Rays are going to trade McClanahan, but they should get him back off the IL right around the trade deadline. That's a potential ace joining a team on the playoff bubble. And if McClanahan is at his best, he could push the Rays into a wild card spot with a rotation that should worry everyone — McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell, Shane Baz — along with a sneaky good offense that's top five in the AL in runs per game. Adding a homegrown ace to fuel a second-half playoff run would be one of the most Rays things imaginable. And it could happen (or they could sell at the deadline and try again next year). — Jennings Record: 55-45 Last Power Ranking: 11 Second-half storyline: Where are the runs going to come from? Advertisement The Padres are a sneaky-awful offensive team. They're ranked 24th in adjusted OPS (OPS+) and have an unadjusted OPS under .700. They've hit just 86 home runs, which is behind the Marlins, Giants and, gasp, Rockies. This is pretty remarkable, considering that Manny Machado and Fernando Tatís Jr. have each hit 16 homers or more. They'll hope to get those dingers from Xander Bogaerts, in year X of a billion-year contract, and Jackson Merrill, who is still growing into his power. The real cavalry might come at the deadline, though. You know A.J. Preller won't be idle. — Brisbee Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 12 Second-half storyline: Is Rafael Devers OK? One thing we know about Devers: He has an emotional component to his game. His displeasure with his old organization bled into the start of the regular season, and he was striking out at a record-setting pace. Then he turned his season around with a lot of thumping. Sometimes it takes a bit for his head to clear. – Brisbee This is hardly sabermetrics, but it sure seems like he's in a similar funk with the Giants, who acquired him to single-handedly fix the offense. They were polite about it, but quite insistent. The pressure hasn't helped him, and he's been a dud in his limited time in San Francisco. Back and leg problems might be the culprit more than brain problems, but either way, the Giants still need him. That hasn't changed. — Brisbee Record: 51-50 Last Power Ranking: 17 Second-half storyline: Regression works both ways, doesn't it? The pitching has been extremely good. Maybe a little too good. It wouldn't surprise me if they came back down to earth just a little bit in the second half. The hitting has been extremely bad. Maybe a little too bad. It wouldn't surprise me if they came back to life just a little bit in the second half. Advertisement The problem is that if both of these things happen, it's not going to change their outcome much after a disappointing first half. For this season to be a success in Texas, they will need one order of regression to the mean (offense), hold the regression to the mean (pitching). And it's probably going to need to happen fast. The deadline is nigh. — Weaver Record: 50-51 Last Power Ranking: 16 Second-half storyline: Will they be sellers at the deadline? As always, the Golden Rule of Selling is in play: If you have a lot of good players to trade in a selling effort, it's possible that you have a sneakily good team and don't need to rebuild at all. Patience is more valuable in those situations than prospects. The Diamondbacks are on the fringes of the wild-card race, and they have a lot of pending free agents, so they could go either way. Don't think of it as a rebuild, but an early start to free agency, just with more prospects. This is the likeliest course, but we're still at a stage of the season where a hot week could change everything. — Brisbee Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 18 Second-half storyline: Will they learn from the past two deadlines? If you're not a Reds fan, you might not have noticed that the Reds were pretty good when the deadline came in 2023. They made some minor moves, but nothing splashy, and finished two games out of a wild-card position. Last year, they had a losing record at the deadline, didn't do much, and faded down the stretch, finishing 12 games out. This year is a weird combination of both. Yes, their record is 52-49 but they're only one spot (and 3.5 games) out of the final wild-card position. Will GM Nick Krall seize an opportunity to make a second-half run, or will the team slow-play it again, hoping to build for progress in 2026? — Weaver Advertisement Record: 52-49 Last Power Ranking: 15 Second-half storyline: What kind of team are they? Hot, cold, hot, cold, hot, cold. Pick an identity, you freaks. The Cardinals got obliterated in their first series out of the break, getting blown out by a Diamondbacks team looking to reestablish itself as a contender. The Cardinals would like to do that, too, building on some of those wins they banked in May. They just might be a mediocre team, though. They have five starters who have made all but two of their starts this season (good) and they all have an ERA over 4.00 (bad). They could go for it, but in the service of what goal? This is the franchise and fan base that knows better than anyone else that every postseason has a Jered Weaver, and you just need to get there to find out who it is. Easier said than done. — Brisbee Record: 49-50 Last Power Ranking: 22 Second-half storyline: Will we see Chase DeLauter this year? Could the Guardians get hot and leapfrog five teams in the second half to make it into the playoffs? Sure, it's mathematically possible. But it's not probable enough to make it my second-half storyline. Instead, I'm curious if we'll get to see DeLauter, who was ripping it up in Triple A before a hand injury that may have delayed a big-league call-up. He's seeing a hand specialist, so when he's healthy, we'll get to see if he extends his on-base streak in Columbus (34 games) or if he'll get a chance to start a new one in Cleveland. Beyond that, the Guardians appear to be slowly sinking into a light sell-off at the deadline. — Weaver Record: 48-52 Last Power Ranking: 19 Second-half storyline: At what point will we have seen enough? It was technically less than a week ago when Dan Hayes' second-half storylines article ran with a headline asking if the Twins were buyers or sellers. Advertisement Well, they're 5-5 in their last 10 games, which doesn't really scream one or the other, but two of those losses were to the Rockies, sooooo it seems like maybe we have our answer? Probably? These are the Twins, though — just as likely to catch a good vibes wave and ride it to a 10-game winning streak as they are to (metaphorically) put their phones on silent and spend a week in bed while the bills pile up. As fun as it would be to see them hit one of those hot streaks in the playoffs, I just don't think this squad has the juice. So when does the front office pull the plug? — Weaver Record: 49-52 Last Power Ranking: 21 Second-half storyline: Who sticks around for next year? Last year, the Royals made the playoffs. They had a sneaky-busy offseason, headlined by the acquisition of Jonathan India from the Reds — finally, a leadoff hitter to get on base ahead of Bobby Witt Jr. India entered last night's action with an on-base percentage of .328, or exactly the same as Eugenio Suárez (but about 250 points lower on slugging). On the upside, Maikel García seems to have put it together, making his first All-Star team and finally turning all that hard contact into productive numbers. Barring some miracle, the Royals won't be repeating last year's October performance. These games are for sussing out the future. Fortunately for the Royals, they can know this in time to make some trades and bolster the farm system, rather than waiting until mid-August to find out. — Weaver Record: 44-55 Last Power Ranking: 20 Second-half storyline: Are two catchers too many? The story of this Braves season seems already written. They're disappointments. Maybe the biggest disappointments in baseball. If they can change that in the second half, it'll be one of the most exciting storylines in the game. But let's not count on that one. Instead, the Braves are probably doing to do some version of selling at the trade deadline Will they trade veteran catcher Sean Murphy, or keep him and find at-bats for both Murphy and rookie Drake Baldwin (in which case, they could trade DH Marcell Ozuna)? This still looks like a talented roster. But what's it going to look like come Aug, 1, and how is that going to impact our expectations heading into 2026? — Jennings Advertisement Record: 49-51 Last Power Ranking: 23 Second-half storyline: What will they get at the deadline? There was a hot minute in April when it looked like Mike Trout had a shot at a second postseason series. Alas. They're not without players to trade, though. They'll keep onto the young players, of course, but they have relievers to interest the masses, from closer Kenley Jansen to lefty Reid Detmers. They've resisted trading their menagerie of Useful Tylers thus far, but this is probably the deadline that changes. The Angels, for the first time in a while, look like they're actually emerging from a morass. Patience. It'll be a couple more seasons, but this deadline could kickstart those efforts. — Brisbee Record: 44-55 Last Power Ranking: 24 Second-half storyline: Something to believe in? This was supposed to be the Orioles' heyday, when their young talent would make them consistent contenders. They won 101 games in 2023, got back to the playoffs last year and their FanGraphs playoff odds were basically identical to the Tigers on Opening Day (perhaps lower than expected due to concerns about their pitching). Instead, the Orioles have been a complete flop, setting the stage for a potentially massive fire sale at the trade deadline (Ryan O'Hearn, Zach Eflin, Cedric Mullins, et al.). Can the Orioles turn a bunch of rentals into meaningful talent? And perhaps more importantly, can their young core perform well enough in the second half to suggest all the hype and expectation is warranted (assuming they don't skimp on pitching in the future). — Jennings Record: 46-53 Last Power Ranking: 25 Second-half storyline: All about Sandy This story is all about the main character. With all due respect to Kyle Stowers and Otto Lopez, there's no bigger fish in the Marlins clubhouse than Sandy Alcantara. And after another underwhelming start on Friday, he currently has a 7.14 ERA. Three years ago, he won a Cy Young award, and in two or three years, he's going to be a free agent. Miami has to decide whether to trade him, and some contending team has to decide whether to believe in him. Whether he stays or goes, Alcantara will be the biggest Marlins story of the second half. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 42-60 Last Power Ranking: 27 Second-half storyline: So, how's the ballpark during the Sacramento summer? The A's have scheduled as many night games as possible in the Sacramento heat, but they're limited on Sundays and travel days because of the CBA and ESPN games, and we're about to get into the real Northern California summer. July is for weenies; real heads know that August and especially September is when the heat gets here. That's more of a Bay Area dynamic — it's already been plenty hot in Sacramento — but it still applies. It's a long baseball season for the new turf, too. We'll see if there's any physical fatigue, for players or otherwise, as the months drag on. — Brisbee Record: 40-61 Last Power Ranking: 26 Second-half storyline: Why do we watch baseball, anyway? I mean look, if you're reading a section about the Pirates, it probably means you care about the Pirates, which means you could tell me a half-dozen reasons you'll keep watching their games this year. Paul Skenes is stupid-good at pitching and gets robbed of a loss about every fifth day, which is sad or funny, depending on if you root for Skenes. Oneil Cruz hits the ball 120 miles an hour once in a while (which is neither sad nor funny, unless you are a nervous laugher). Andrew McCutchen is baseball's version of a wizened old monk atop a mountain, and you never know how much longer he'll stick around, so you should take that in while you can. All of these are worthwhile reasons to watch baseball, and I'm not going to tell you otherwise. Life is fleeting, and so very precious, and if watching the Pirates brings you any shred of joy, you should keep doing it. — Weaver Record: 40-60 Last Power Ranking: 28 Second-half storyline: First chapter of a fresh start Advertisement The Nationals already made their biggest decision of the year, firing manager Dave Martinez and general manager Mike Rizzo. They haven't been any better since, but at least they did … something. Last week, they picked first in the draft. Later this month, they'll sell at the deadline (though their valuable chips are few and far between unless they want to trade a trio of potential cornerstones). Whatever happens in the second half, it's all about starting over. The Nationals aren't starting from scratch — James Wood is a pretty good foundation — but they're clearly turning a page. Their second-half storyline is just an introduction to whatever comes next. — Jennings Record: 36-65 Last Power Ranking: 29 Second-half storyline: When does Bears training camp begin? I know what I just said about the Pirates up there. I could lean into that sentiment again here, or we could give equal time to an opposing philosophy, one passed down to us by a 'semi-professional racecar driver and amateur tattoo artist.' It goes like this: 'If you're not first, you're last.' OK, OK, that's terrible advice, but in the case of the White Sox, it has been a while since they were first … or second, or third… The last time they finished anywhere other than last was 2023, but they still lost 100 games that year, so … fourth place in that division still feels pretty last-ish to me. The last time they were respectable? It was also the last time they had a winning record (not counting 1-0 on Opening Day) — they finished second in the AL Central in 2022, losing on the last day to fall to exactly .500 at 81-81. The league that existed on that day did not yet include 14 players who were All-Stars this year. It makes me wonder — not counting Opening Week, when do we think the White Sox will have a winning record again? I'm setting the over/under at May 12, 2028. — Weaver Advertisement Record: 24-76 Last Power Ranking: 30 Second-half storyline: Can they avoid the 2024 White Sox? C'mon, folks. We're all in this together. It can't be possible for a team to set a modern record for losses that stands for just one year. It has to wear that shame for at least another year, but they'd preferably do it for a decade, if not a century. That is simply too many losses for the record to last just a year. Back of the envelope math: The Rockies were 24-75 as of Monday morning, a 39-win pace, breaking the White Sox record by two games. They're 15-20 since the start of June, which is just normal worst-team stuff, not historical worst-team stuff. Keep it up, fellas. — Brisbee (Top photo of Pete Crow-Armstrong: Matt Dirksen / Chicago Cubs / Getty Images)
New York Times
01-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Mets, Guardians end June with gloom; Current trends for each team
By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. Remember when Blake Snell went on the injured list and the Los Angeles Dodgers' absurdly deep pitching staff began to show some weakness? What was that, four weeks ago? Five weeks ago? (Checks the transactions log…) Advertisement Three months ago! Yes, that sound you hear is the baseball calendar flipping to July. The All-Star break is two weeks away, the trade deadline is a month away and we're beyond the halfway point to Game 162. It's starting to feel like some of these games actually count! April can be misleading, and May can be a month of transition, but June is when we really wrap our heads around what we're seeing. The sample sizes aren't small anymore, and the inevitable shifts toward contention — we're looking at you, Braves and Rangers — stop feeling so certain. For this week's Power Rankings, we look at where each team was trending in June, from the boring to the surging to downright confusing. Record: 53-32 Last Power Ranking: 1 June trend: Boring (the good kind) The Dodgers have a big lead in the NL West again. They're at the top of these rankings again. I'm not sure when The Athletic's first power rankings were, but my guess is that the Dodgers were at the top of those, too. The oldest ones I could find in my own archives were from 2021, and they started with this sentence: Like you were expecting a different team up here. Indeed. A month-by-month trend? The Dodgers don't mess with those. They're on the decade-by-decade plan, and they're still trending up, somehow, even though they can't really pitch. — Grant Brisbee Record: 53-32 Last Power Ranking: 3 June trend: A deep October run We've discussed repeatedly all the things that have gone right for the Tigers this year. Some of them — Spencer Torkelson's breakout, Riley Greene outpacing last year's All-Star campaign, Javier Báez and Gleyber Torres being significant contributors — come with questions of sustainability, sure. But it's a long list, and it has rocketed the Tigers to the top of the AL. Surely not all of those coaches will turn into pumpkins, even if Wenceel Pérez isn't likely to keep his OPS north of 1.000 for the rest of the year. Advertisement But one thing is not in question: Tarik Skubal is an ace's ace. If Detroit can get back into the playoffs — and right now, Baseball Reference says there's a 99.6 percent chance of it happening — the Tigers have the potential to steamroll the rest of the AL field en route to a World Series. — Levi Weaver Record: 48-36 Last Power Ranking: 4 June trend: Catchable As of June 3, the Yankees had a 6 1/2-game lead in the American League East. The best AL team was a pretty clear toss-up between the Yankees and Tigers, and the Yankees had separated themselves from a deep division. In the past month, though, the Yankees have hovered right around .500 while the Rays and Blue Jays have closed the gap to make the AL East a legitimate competition. The Yankees still have playoff odds well above 90 percent — and they still have Aaron Judge, though his June was more very good than historically elite — but they're no longer a singular force in the division or the American League. — Chad Jennings Record: 50-35 Last Power Ranking: 2 June trend: Advantageous The Phillies weren't great in June, but as the Mets fell apart and the Braves continued to spin their tires, the Phillies did enough to take control of the NL East. They moved into first place on the strength of their pitching, with Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez taking their turns leading this deep rotation that's also been able to lean heavily on Zack Wheeler and Jesús Luzardo. The Phillies moved atop the division mostly without Bryce Harper, whose return puts the lineup back at full strength alongside Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber. — Jennings Record: 50-34 Last Power Ranking: 7 June trend: Dominance Reports of the Astros' demise were greatly exaggerated, and now they're running away with the AL West behind an unexpected pitching-and-Jeremy-Peña strategy (which hit a roadbump on Monday). There are other contributors, obviously, but Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and a mostly untouchable bullpen are behind much of the recent winning. Advertisement The Astros aren't scoring as many runs as, oh, the Marlins or Nationals, so there is work to be done if they want to keep coasting to the postseason. That can all be addressed at the deadline, though. For now, they're rolling. — Brisbee Record: 49-35 Last Power Ranking: 6 June trend: Repaving the way We've all agreed by now that 2020 was a pseudo-season, right? 60 games? I mean, it's always better to win than to lose, but even the Dodgers were like 'Yeahhhhhh, cool, but we'd also like a real one.' So the Cubs haven't been division champs for real since 2017, the year after they won the World Series. Clearly, this is a different team. Not only was Pete Crow-Armstrong 15 years old that year, but there's only one player on this year's team — Ian Happ — who played even one big-league game with the Cubs. This is an all-new Cubs team, thriving on its own strength and not the rapidly decaying nostalgia of yesteryear. The Cubs have hit a mini-slump of late, going 4-6 in their last 10 and an even .500 in June while the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds all surged. But the talent appears to be there. It's not time to worry yet. — Weaver Record: 48-37 Last Power Ranking: 5 June trend: Roller coaster As of June 12, the Mets had won six straight and 15 of 18. They were dominant, with a comfortable lead in an NL East expected to be a dogfight. But June 13 began a seven-game losing streak — which started a stretch in which they lost 10 of 11 — and over the weekend, the Mets were swept by the Pirates to finish 12-15 in June. Juan Soto was awesome (highest wRC+ in baseball for the month), but Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill and Kodai Senga went on the IL, straining a rotation that had been an unexpected strength, and the Phillies moved ahead of the Mets in the division. Early June showed how good the Mets can be, but late June showed something else entirely. — Jennings Record: 47-38 Last Power Ranking: 9 June trend: Rays-ish The Rays were not very good last year, and weren't very good in April, either. But they were a little better in May, and their June was about as good as any team in baseball. In other words, the Rays are back! Yandy Díaz is hitting again, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero look like emerging lynchpins, and Ha-Seong Kim could make his organizational debut soon. The Rays pitching has been more good than elite — and they actually have a full rotation instead of a bunch of openers — but the result has been a typically good-if-anonymous Tampa Bay team that's not simply in the mix for a wild card, but also climbing within striking distance of the Yankees for first place in the American League East. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 45-40 Last Power Ranking: 8 June trend: Super weird, man The Giants made their biggest trade in decades, then turned around and used their new superstar to defeat the team he came from. There's momentum, and then there's momentum. They had pure, undistilled momentum – the premium stuff – and they were going to ride it all the way to the World Series, baby. Except the Giants took all that momentum and used it to get their butts kicked by the Marlins and White Sox. In conclusion, June is a land of contrasts, and maybe momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher. The Giants are still as hard to read as they were before the season even started. — Brisbee Record: 45-39 Last Power Ranking: 11 June trend: Unremarkable The Padres are beating the teams they should beat, winning recent home series against the Royals and Nationals, while struggling on the road against divisional opponents. They've outscored the Dodgers in seven games this season – 37 runs scored to just 35 allowed – but they've only won two of those games, which seems hard to do. Their June was nothing but a placeholder for the month that will actually tell you if the Padres are good enough to make the Dodgers sweat. As of now, they're not nearly as close as they should be. — Brisbee Record: 47-37 Last Power Ranking: 10 June trend: Moooommmmmm, they're doing it againnnnn!! We do this every year now. The Brewers lose a star player, a manager, a front office executive, and we think: 'Well, that's going to be the load-bearing wall that brings the whole thing crashing down.' And then every September, we look up, and this Frankenstein monster of castoffs and hole-pluggers is standing on the boat bound for October, waving back at those teams whose well-laid plans simply did not pan out. Advertisement The Brewers went 16-9 in June. That's the best record in June for the entire NL, and trails only the Astros (19-7) for best in baseball. At some point, it should cease to be surprising. Not yet, though. I'm still pleasantly mystified every time. — Weaver Record: 47-39 Last Power Ranking: 14 June trend: Boring, finally The Cardinals were lousy in April. Then they were one of the hottest teams in baseball for May. Now they're somewhere in the middle. So who are the real Cardinals? All of the above. They're probably not as bad or as good as they were in the first two months, respectively, which means their June trend is that of an ordinary team having ordinary successes and failures. A couple more Mays, and they'll win the division easily, but that doesn't mean it's likely or even possible. (Also, that last sentence applied to the Giants throughout the 1960s.) — Brisbee Record: 46-38 Last Power Ranking: 12 June trend: Relevance It's a two-month trend, really. This was supposed to be an era of greatness for the Blue Jays — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in their primes, a rotation built over time, more investments this offseason — but they haven't won a playoff game since 2016, and they finished well below .500 last year and April was more of the same. But the Blue Jays have played their way back into the wild card race (and they're at least in the conversation for the division) since May. Alejandro Kirk and José Berríos have been excellent, and over the weekend, the Jays clinched their season series against the Red Sox. The Blue Jays are not exactly front-runners, but they're not afterthoughts either, and their June was good enough to take control of a wild-card spot. — Jennings Record: 44-41 Last Power Ranking: 19 June trend: … also relevance? Advertisement The Reds went 15-10 in June. Elly De La Cruz got hot. Chase Burns debuted and looked unbothered in his first start (though let's ignore his second start on Monday, because whew). Andrew Abbott appears to be a legit top-of-the-rotation starter. Jose Trevino is hitting nearly .300 and has an OPS in the .800s. Spencer Steer hit three home runs in a game that saw Nick Martinez take a no-hitter into the ninth inning. Emilio Pagán has been almost untouchable this month. Now, imagine a healthy Hunter Greene and maybe even a healthy Rhett Lowder joining the rotation in the second half. If they can pick up a bat or two at the deadline, I kinda like the Reds to be a sneak-into-the-playoffs wild-card team. — Weaver Record: 44-40 Last Power Ranking: 13 June trend: Depends on which June you're talking about here The Mariners began June in first place, with a 31-26 record. Ten games into the month, they stood at 33-34 and four games out. The skid has stopped, and they've cobbled together a winning record since then, but they're still losing ground to the absurdly hot Astros. So the Mariners don't have a June trend, per se, as much as they have an understanding that baseball, like life, can come at you quickly. The franchise has been aware of this particular quirk of the sport for about 50 years now, so no one can feign surprise. So far, it's all added up to a very Mariners season, yet again. — Brisbee Record: 38-45 Last Power Ranking: 17 June trend: Reality Last week was the Braves in a nutshell. It started with Chris Sale going on the injured list, after which the Braves actually won a couple before losing three straight — all in the division — culminating in a blowout loss to the Phillies. A lopsided win on Saturday gave them a chance to win a series against Philly, but they lost Sunday's game by a run. Advertisement The end result: a losing record for the week against the two teams currently in control of the NL East. Flashes of the talent that made the Braves preseason favorites, but ultimately the reality of why they're below .500 with playoff odds that were in free fall for much of June. There's enough talent to believe in this team — especially now that Spencer Strider is pitching well again — but it's July 1, and the Braves just don't have the record to support such blind faith. — Jennings Record: 42-42 Last Power Ranking: 15 June trend: Same ol', same ol' The Diamondbacks can hit the snot out of the ball. They led the sport in runs scored last year, and they have the third-highest total in baseball this year. It's been good enough for fourth place so far. They'll need to prevent runs if they're going to make the postseason, which was also the book on them entering this year. They spent a lot of money to address this problem, but they ended up right back where they started. The last team to lead its league in runs in consecutive seasons without making the playoffs was the 2015-2016 Rockies. There are better role models for an NL West team to follow. — Brisbee Record: 41-44 Last Power Ranking: 20 June trend: A species of fear I didn't expect to quote Rene Descartes in the Power Rankings, but this quote — from 'Passions of the Soul' — seems to fit this year's Texas Rangers: 'Indecision is also a species of fear that, holding the soul, as it were, in suspense between several actions it might carry out, causes it to perform none of them, and thus gives it the time to make a proper choice before opting for one of them. In which respect, it is genuinely of some use. But when it lasts longer than it should, and causes us to squander on deliberation the time we need in order to act, it is very bad.' Advertisement The Rangers have spent three months in conflict with themselves, deliberating which aspect — the Octoberish pitching or the deadline-selloffish hitting — will be their defining trait. They still look capable of winning or losing ~87 games. Figure it out, fellas. — Weaver Record: 42-44 Last Power Ranking: 16 June trend: Mediocrity April was pretty good, May was pretty bad and June was pretty meh. A hot streak, then a losing streak. Pull above .500, then fall back below. Top prospect Roman Anthony was promoted from Triple-A, and less than a week later, face-of-the-franchise Rafael Devers was traded to San Francisco. The Red Sox have settled in as the fourth-best team in a predictably deep division, and the past month suggested that's about where they belong. Not awful, but not great. Can the return of Alex Bregman and the season debut of Masataka Yoshida make a difference? Will they buy or sell at the deadline? Fair questions, but the team isn't exactly trending toward definitive answers. — Jennings Record: 40-44 Last Power Ranking: 21 June trend: Disaster imminent! Or maybe another 13-game winning streak! Who knows!!!! After a red-hot May (18-8), the Twins went 9-18 in June. Add in an 0-4 March and a 13-14 April, and you have a team that — much like last year — just can't seem to be normal. Did you know that the Twins have made the playoffs seven times in the past 20 years and have gone a combined 1-21 in the postseason? With players like Byron Buxton and Harrison Bader (both 31 years old), Carlos Correa (30), and Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Pablo López (all 29), you could make the argument that the Twins could hope for another second-half hot streak. And if it doesn't work out? Ehhhh, no big deal, let's reload for 2026. Advertisement But if this core is this predisposed to extreme streakiness (and never in October), is it time to consider tearing it down and rebuilding with more consistent building blocks? — Weaver Record: 40-42 Last Power Ranking: 18 June trend: Irrelevance? Over the last 10 years, the Guardians have made the playoffs six times. On the four occasions in which they missed it, they finished second in the division three times and third place once. They're in second place right now, too — but that's only because the Twins and Royals have somehow been worse in June (and the White Sox had a head start on losing games). Check out these June records in the AL Central: Detroit: 15-11 (.577) White Sox: 10-16 (.385) Guardians: 9-16 (.360) Twins: 9-18 (.333) Royals: 8-18 (.308) How depressing. Anyway, the Guardians haven't hit and their pitching hasn't been able to save them. They're still within shouting distance of a wild-card position, but they're going to have to get back to 'Guards Ball.'— Weaver Record: 39-46 Last Power Ranking: 22 June trend: One step back The stories of the Tigers and Royals were twin flames last year — two AL Central teams ascending from the mire to claim a surprise playoff spot. But while the Tigers have continued to improve this year, the Royals look more like the 2023 squad that finished 56-106. OK, they're not quite that bad. But they're definitely not on pace to hit last year's 86-win mark, either. Two encouraging signs: going into Monday night's game against the Mariners, Kansas City's starting pitchers still ranked in a tie for sixth-best ERA in the sport (with the Yankees, 3.41). Maikel Garcia is finally having a breakout season, and Bobby Witt Jr. is still very good (and only 25). Alas, that hasn't translated into many wins, especially recently. — Weaver Advertisement Record: 41-42 Last Power Ranking: 23 June trend: Hope? Honest to goodness hope? The Angels are in the postseason picture. They're in the back of the picture, and you have to zoom in until everything is super pixelated, but they're back there. They're kind of making a funny face, but they're not doing it on purpose. They just didn't know they were going to be in the picture. Let me start over. The Angels are in the postseason picture, and they got there with a strong June. They're hovering around .500, so let's not go nuts with the expectations, but they're happy to be there. After the dreadful April they had, and considering they've still been outscored by about 50 runs on the season, they still have plenty to prove. But the obvious preseason picks, such as the Braves, would love to be in their position. That's something, right? — Brisbee Record: 37-47 Last Power Ranking: 24 June trend: Too little, too late The fact is, the Orioles weren't bad in June. Winning record. Swept the Mariners and Angels. Scored 22 runs in a game against the Rays. Gunnar Henderson had his best month of the year, Jordan Westburg got healthy, and Adley Rutschman was really good (before he got hurt). Charlie Morton even pitched well! But what good does that do for a team that won only nine games in April and only nine more in May? At this point, the Orioles' playoff odds have been stuck in single digits for almost two months. So, what should we make of a decent June? It's kept them from being truly awful, but the trade deadline is a month away, and that's surely not enough time to avoid being sellers. — Jennings Record: 36-50 Last Power Ranking: 26 June trend: A late mirage With Monday's 7-0 win over the Cardinals, the Pirates did a couple of things. Advertisement First, at 14-13, they had their first winning month since last year's mirage, which carried on into July. Second, it was their fourth straight win by seven or more runs. Per the Pirates' broadcast crew, that's their longest such stretch since 1925. 1925! The Pirates haven't been good lately, but counting that 1925 season, they're 4-1 in World Series appearances since then! Alas, when they break this record again someday, researchers won't have the satisfying conclusion of '1925? Oh yeah, they won the World Series that year, that tracks.' Instead, they'll look back and go, 'They did that in 2025? The year they couldn't even win all those Paul Skenes starts? Baseball is weird, man.' — Weaver Record: 37-45 Last Power Ranking: 27 June trend: Meh I mean, look, the Marlins had a winning record last month. Their run differential was pretty close to even, Otto Lopez was great, Kyle Stowers kept putting up good numbers, and Sandy Alcantara finally had a decent month (especially if you ignore his last start). The Marlins even moved out of last place. It was good. But still. Meh. The Marlins won a ton last week, so they're trending upward, but the season already is what it is. A decent month and a really good week count as a meaningful high point, but the bigger picture is still just … the Marlins. — Jennings Record: 35-49 Last Power Ranking: 25 June trend: Bottom of the barrel The worst record in June? You might assume the Rockies or the White Sox, or maybe you noticed a team like the Royals falling fast and would wonder if they were the worst. But, no, it was the Nationals. Coming off a winning record in May — when they actually moved up to third place in the division — the Nationals plummeted in May, falling behind even the Marlins to last place in the NL East. CJ Abrams, James Wood and MacKenzie Gore kept playing well, but the team as a whole fell apart. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 35-52 Last Power Ranking: 27 June trend: Regular bad, not historically bad Whew. It was getting really ugly there for a bit. The A's gave up 195 runs in May, which was one of the worst performances from any pitching staff in any month over the last quarter-century. Actually, three of the 10 worst pitching months since 2000 belong to the A's. I wonder if there's some sort of common thread, like ownership, that could partially explain that. Some things will just have to remain a mystery! The A's pitching this month has been just regular bad, which is good, because Sacramento isn't about to get cooler over the next couple months. Say what you want about the status or direction of the franchise, but A's pitchers don't deserve to have the deck stacked against them even more than it already is. Just let them be a regular-bad pitching staff in peace. — Brisbee Record: 28-56 Last Power Ranking: 29 June trend: I mean, the only way left is up, right? The White Sox had the division's second-best record in June. Sure, it was 10-16, but considering they were 5-21 in April (and 9-19 last June), this is technically an improvement, right? And after spending almost every week in the No. 30 spot in the power rankings last year, they've consistently finished in 29th this year. Hey, did you know that Adrian Houser has a 2.93 ERA in five starts in June, and Dan Altavilla, Steven Wilson and Tyler Gilbert have combined to allow one earned run in 18 innings out of the bullpen? I don't know if this is relevant or helpful. I just got bored with telling you how bad the White Sox are. — Weaver Record: 19-65 Last Power Ranking: 30 June trend: Bad, but not historically awful Some teams would feel uncomfortable with a trend of 'bad, but not historically awful,' but not the Rockies. They're trending upward, and how. They were just 2-10 at Coors Field in June, but they finished with an 8-6 record on the road, which means they might have just had their best road month in years. Heck, that might be enough to be a top-10 road month in franchise history. Advertisement You have to understand that such a thing will not be researched by me for the last capsule in a very long power ranking that nobody will actually read to the end. But I'd like to imagine it's the start of a new franchise-wide trend that will last for a decade. The Rockies? They're just better on the road. Everyone knows that. And it all started in June 2025. — Brisbee (Top photo of Steven Kwan: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
New York Times
17-06-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Another new No. 1? Mets make their way back to the top, plus a top-10 debut
By Tim Britton, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. As we near closer to the season's midway point, it feels like a good time to check in to see how each team is stacking up against expectations going into the 2025 season. Some teams, like the Dodgers and Phillies, are performing close to where we anticipated — and where we slotted them in our preseason power rankings. Some, like the Tigers and Blue Jays, have outperformed our predictions, while teams like the Braves and Diamondbacks have surprised us and fallen short. Not all of this is purely performance-based, of course. Injuries play a part, as do the decisions made by ownership. But ultimately, we can glean some insight by looking at how a team has performed beyond the advantages or disadvantages with which it started. Many things can happen throughout a season that can change a team's trajectory, but let's break down why — at this point — each team turned out to be better or worse or just as good as we anticipated and what that might mean for the rest of their season. Record: 45-27 Last Power Ranking: 2 Preseason Power Ranking: 5 In late March, the Mets were a top-five team that felt kinda similar to the other teams around them in the rankings. By late April, the Mets were the first team this season to supplant the Dodgers as the No. 1 team in our Power Rankings. They've gotten less than expected from Juan Soto — though Soto's coming around — and Sean Manaea has yet to pitch, but Pete Alonso's been awesome, same for Francisco Lindor, and the rotation has been shockingly good (and deep). The NL East isn't the three-team race we anticipated — for more on that, see No. 15 — but the Mets have helped keep the division strong at the top. We expected them to be pretty good, and they've been better than that. — Chad Jennings Advertisement Record: 44-29 Last Power Ranking: T-3 Preseason Power Ranking: 1 When the Dodgers ran off to an 8-0 start, it appeared possible our No. 1 position in the rankings might never change. But the team everyone expected to be dominant has merely been very good — good enough to lead arguably the best division in baseball, good enough to be within shouting distance of the best record in the sport, good enough that most every projection system still thinks LA will finish with more wins after 162 than anyone else. The Dodgers have endured the, by now, annual pilgrimage to the injured list of basically every one of their starters, and provided they get most of them back at the right time, they're still the frontrunners. — Tim Britton Record: 46-27 Last Power Ranking: 1 Preseason Power Ranking: T-16 Here's what has happened in Detroit: Almost everything has gone right. Tarik Skubal's Cy Young 2024 season wasn't a fluke. Spencer Torkelson found himself. So did Javy Báez. Dillon Dingler is one of the game's most productive catchers. Wenceel Pérez has a .967 OPS since returning from injury last month. Need I go on? OK, I will: Casey Mize has been the pitching version of Torkelson — the nearly-a-bust who put it all together this year. Tommy Kahnle has a sub-2.00 ERA. An aerospace engineer has an ERA of 2.11 out of the bullpen. This week marks the beginning of a test, of sorts, as closer Will Vest went on the IL. Let's see if the magic can continue now that they're facing a bit of hardship. — Levi Weaver Record: 42-29 Last Power Ranking: T-3 Preseason Power Ranking: 7 The first line of our preseason Yankees analysis: 'The past few months have not gone well for the franchise.' We wrote our first Power Rankings shortly after Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil got hurt, but before Devin Williams pitched so poorly that he lost the closer role. The Yankees remain a team whose flaws get a lot of attention, but they've also consistently remained one of the two best teams in the American League. Aaron Judge and Max Fried can make up for a lot, but Luke Weaver, Carlos Rodón, Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham have helped a lot too. We pegged the Yankees as one of several pretty good teams, and they've since separated themselves among the very best in baseball. — Jennings Advertisement Record: 44-28 Last Power Ranking: 5 Preseason Power Ranking: 12 The short version of what's happened since then: Pete Crow-Armstrong. OK, it's not just PCA, but the 23-year-old's breakout season has been the gasoline pumping through an engine that has stayed revved all year. His 4.0 bWAR is best among NL position players (and fourth in the sport, behind Aaron Judge, Jeremy Peña and Paul Skenes). Other things that have gone right: Carson Kelly's career year, Michael Boyd and Drew Pomeranz turning into winning lotto tickets, and Kyle Tucker being every bit the star the front office expected it was getting in the trade with the Astros. It doesn't appear that anyone else in the Central is going to threaten them. The focus is now on setting up the roster at the trade deadline to be built for a deep October run. — Weaver Record: 43-29 Last Power Ranking: 7 Preseason Power Ranking: 4 Much of the Phillies' preseason upside was tied to their rotation, with the emergence of Cristopher Sanchez and the arrival of Jesús Luzardo. Indeed, the rotation has been excellent — Zack Wheeler is still Zack Wheeler — and the Phillies have remained one of the game's best teams, but with enough flaws that keep them from overtaking the Mets in the NL East or from consistently remaining in the top five of our Power Rankings. They're more or less what we expected: a team that still looks like it could challenge for a championship (but also a team that needs an outfielder and a reliever at the trade deadline). — Jennings Record: 41-31 Last Power Ranking: 6 Preseason Power Ranking: 20 At least one more middle-of-the-order threat. That's what we wrote about at the start of the season: Man, if this team had that one more bat, maybe it could actually compete in the NL West. We're about to find out just how much that extra bat can propel a team that has already outstripped the preseason expectations. The bullpen has been exceptional, and Robbie Ray is rejuvenated in the rotation. Now, Rafael Devers is the kind of lineup presence the Giants haven't been able to buy for the last seven years, and he addresses a serious need at 1B/DH. — Britton Advertisement Record: 39-32 Last Power Ranking: 8 Preseason Power Ranking: 13 A 14-3 start surged San Diego up the rankings, and it's fallen steadily in the time since, with the squad under .500 after Game 17 — which, we should point out, is only fatal if you're a football team. The lineup lacks the depth of the best in the sport, so it's leaning especially hard on the quite capable shoulders of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Few contenders have as gaping a hole as the Friars do in left field, and no contenders have a general manager as eager to address weaknesses in season as A.J. Preller. — Britton Record: 41-31 Last Power Ranking: 9 Preseason Power Ranking: 8 While Houston remains in the rankings about where we expected coming into the season, the path has endured a few twists, and what's beyond the horizon is unclear. The Astros are in first in an AL West that has underwhelmed, they've misdiagnosed a star player's injury for the second straight season, and they've lost multiple key members of their pitching staff to injury. Jeremy Peña and Hunter Brown have been phenomenal, and Houston should get more in the second half from Alvarez (eventually), Christian Walker and Yainer Díaz. Whether there's enough arms to get the Astros across the finish line is another question. — Britton Record: 40-32 Last Power Ranking: 12 Preseason Power Ranking: 14 Honestly, if we'd known Shane McClanahan was going to miss this much time, we probably would have ranked the Rays even lower coming into the season. But even without their ace, the Rays have played their way into the AL wild-card race. Drew Rasmussen has stepped into the No. 1 starter role while Jonathan Aranda is the latest multi-position Rays hitter to emerge from obscurity. The Rays endured loads of injuries in their outfield, but once again, they've found a way to stay competitive. They have a winning record in their temporary home ballpark. — Jennings Record: 36-35 Last Power Ranking: 11 Preseason Power Ranking: 11 What kept Seattle outside the preseason top 10, of course, was its pitching staff. In that initial writeup, Grant Brisbee went on and on about Cal Raleigh's chase of 60 home runs and the genius of bringing back Jorge Polanco and all of why J.P. Crawford would rebound with the stick — and how if this team could just find a couple starters … Yeah, so sometimes teams follow broad expectations while confounding on every specific. The Mariners' offense is the best it's been since ancient times, and that foundational starting rotation has instead been their albatross. The division is still winnable, and the ceiling for the roster looks higher now than it did in March if all aspects of the game align. — Britton Record: 38-33 Last Power Ranking: T-14 Preseason Power Ranking: 18 We asked three Blue Jays questions in our preseason Power Rankings: 1. Will the addition of Anthony Santander jolt the lineup? Answer: Nope. He's been awful. 2. What does Max Scherzer have left? Answer: So far, only one start. 3. Will the team make the most of what could be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s final season as a Blue Jay? Answer: Guerrero signed an extension, but it remains to be seen whether the Blue Jays can make the most of this year (which could be the last for Bo Bichette in Toronto). Advertisement Toronto has a winning record, but a negative run differential. Plenty of questions remain. — Jennings Record: 39-34 Last Power Ranking: T-14 Preseason Power Ranking: 15 They're still over .500, which seems to be the case every year, of late. Their pitching is good but not great (though Jacob Misiorowski's debut was very exciting). Their offense is bad but not terrible — near the bottom of the league in batting average and OPS, and in the top half of the league in runs scored, thanks in part to an emphasis on speed. Put it together, and the final product is just about what we expected. They're not bad, but if you're one of the other wild-card contenders, do they strike fear in your heart? Not yet. Alas, the team that has spent the better part of a decade playing the part of scrappy and inspiring underdog seems to be trying on a new costume: the rather boring middle-of-the-pack team. So, what happened? About what we expected. — Weaver Record: 36-36 Last Power Ranking: 22 Preseason Power Ranking: 10 Old heads will remember a time when the Texas Rangers routinely punished opposing pitchers, only for their own pitching to attempt reconciliation with the enemy by allowing runs by the fistful. For maybe the first time ever, the roles have changed. The Rangers have the best ERA in the American League, and they've spent most of the season passing up any and all scoring opportunities. It's been better of late, and they're in the midst of a schedule-breather. The AL West is a weak division, so it's not too late. But what has happened is that they've backed themselves into a corner. — Weaver Record: 31-39 Last Power Ranking: 16 Preseason Power Ranking: 2 In our defense, nearly everyone seemed to be bullish on the Braves at the start of the season. Data-based projections routinely pegged them as one of the teams to beat, in large part because they seemed to be on the verge of a healthy, proven roster with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider, and newcomer Jurickson Profar providing an offensive boost in the outfield. Instead, Profar got suspended soon after our preseason rankings were released, Acuña took a long time to get back, and Strider hasn't been nearly as good as we all remember him. We've been waiting for the Braves to get on a roll. We're still waiting. — Jennings Record: 36-35 Last Power Ranking: 19 Preseason Power Ranking: 3 Arizona had the best offense in baseball last season. With a mildly better pitching staff, the thinking was that it should be a contender not just for the postseason but for the pennant, and then the Diamondbacks added Corbin Burnes. The offense is still quite good, but the best-laid pitching plans always go awry. Jordan Montgomery was lost for the season before it started. Burnes is done for this season and probably next, and so is emerging closer Justin Martinez. The rest of the rotation is performing well below expectations, to the point that Arizona should contemplate selling come July 31. — Britton Advertisement Record: 36-35 Last Power Ranking: 12 Preseason Power Ranking: T-16 Surprise, surprise: the problem is injuries, again. Byron Buxton is healthy, which is a sentence Twins fans have been longing to hear for quite some time. Unfortunately, the monkey's paw put down a finger to grant the wish, and the next thing you know, the Twins IL has a lot of other names on it: Royce Lewis (again), Pablo López, Zebby Matthews, Michael Tonkin … Luke Keaschall got called up, hit .368 over seven games and then broke his arm. Meanwhile, Carlos Correa's OPS is under .700. And yet, thanks in part to strong performances by guys like Joe Ryan, Jhoan Durán and — albeit inconsistently — Chris Paddack, the Twins are still very much in the mix for an AL wild-card position. — Weaver Record: 37-35 Last Power Ranking: 10 Preseason Power Ranking: 24 The Cardinals were probably not worse than 23 other baseball teams at the start of spring, but the feeling around them was sunk by a sense of stagnation. St. Louis had added a single free agent (Phil Maton) over the winter, and it hadn't sold off assets the way it suggested it would when the offseason began. What was left was a team frustratingly in the middle — not good enough to actually compete for a postseason spot, not bad enough to accumulate talent. And that's kind of where the Cardinals remain now. That 12-1 stretch in May was outstanding; they were five under .500 before it, and they're four under .500 after it. — Britton Record: 37-35 Last Power Ranking: 21 Preseason Power Ranking: 23 There have been a few high spots in Terry Francona's first year in Cincinnati — Andrew Abbott has been a revelation in the rotation, Nick Martinez has lived up to the qualifying offer and Elly De La Cruz has an OPS in the mid-.800s (despite having 81 strikeouts in 310 plate appearances). Advertisement Unfortunately, the sum of the parts has still been fairly mediocre. Spencer Steer and Matt McLain have yet to really take off. Hunter Greene was brilliant when he was healthy, but he hasn't pitched since June 3 and isn't likely to be back soon. The Reds have some good building blocks. So far, they haven't quite been able to stack them into anything stable. — Weaver Record: 38-36 Last Power Ranking: 20 Preseason Power Ranking: 6 Our preseason Power Rankings analysis of the Red Sox was actually pretty on-point — Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet have been awesome, and the farm system has had an impact — but Bregman's also been hurt, the rest of the rotation has struggled, and the farm system's impact has not overwhelmed (Kristian Campbell's hot start faded, and Roman Anthony just arrived). Rafael Devers had been elite at DH … but he was just traded. Aroldis Chapman has been as dominant as ever, so is he the next to go, or is he going to help them right the ship and set course for the postseason? The Red Sox are a weird team. They've had quite a few things go right, but they've struggled to stay above .500. The pieces just haven't quite fit together. — Jennings Record: 34-38 Last Power Ranking: 17 Preseason Power Ranking: 19 One of last year's Cinderella stories, the Royals have crashed back to earth a bit this season. Bobby Witt Jr. played at an MVP level in 2024, and this year, he has been simply a very good player. Jonathan India hasn't been the cure-all in the leadoff spot. Jac Caglianone wasn't the solution either — his OPS currently sits at a dismal .484, which is higher than both Hunter Renfroe's and Michael Massey's. The pitching staff that blossomed into a force in 2024 has still been pretty good — Cole Ragans' 5.18 ERA has been offset by sub-2.00 marks for Kris Bubic and rookie sensation Noah Cameron. But until the offense awakens, Kansas City appears to be in the 'one step back' phase after taking three steps forward last year. — Weaver Advertisement Record: 35-35 Last Power Ranking: 18 Preseason Power Ranking: 21 OK, look — José Ramírez has been brilliant yet again. His .928 OPS is third best in the AL, and he is exempt from the rest of what I'm about to say, which is: the offense has not been very good. Nobody else on the team has an OPS over .784 — and that's Steven Kwan, whose .361 OBP is carrying the bulk of the load. The only non-Ramírez hitter with double-digit home runs is Kyle Manzardo (11), who has a sub-.300 OBP. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Clase has looked human. When you're winning in the sliver-thin margins, it would help to have Superman in the bullpen — as Clase was last year before the playoffs. At just one game over .500, the Guardians do not appear to be any threat to overtake the Tigers in the Central. Can their offense rebound enough to threaten for a wild-card spot? As of this writing, they're just a game out. — Weaver Record: 30-41 Last Power Ranking: 24 Preseason Power Ranking: 9 Upon clicking our preseason Power Rankings and searching for the Orioles, I was bracing to discover we'd ranked them in the top five or something to start the season, but instead, we were skeptical about whether they'd done enough to supplement their young core and rebuild their rotation. Both concerns were justified; we just didn't take them far enough. The Orioles have, in fact, been a mess. They have the fourth-worst run differential in baseball, the rotation has been awful and even their lineup has been mediocre. We weren't sold on the Orioles heading into the season, but even that skepticism was far too optimistic. — Jennings Record: 34-37 Last Power Ranking: 25 Preseason Power Ranking: 27 Please, as you approach The Big A, remember to bend the knee at the Unofficial Kings of California, 2025. For all their warts, the Angels own a sweep at Dodger Stadium, a spotless record in seven games with the Athletics and a series win over the Giants. Even including dropping one set to the Padres, that's a 13-3 mark against foes in the Golden State. (They won 12 games against those teams all last season.) Advertisement Yes, the run differential is the same as that of the White Sox, and the third-order winning percentage expects serious decline, but the overall record is within three games of a playoff spot, and did we mention that sweep at Dodger Stadium? — Britton Record: 30-42 Last Power Ranking: 23 Preseason Power Ranking: 26 Our preseason Power Rankings describe the Nationals as being 'bound for a fourth-place finish, at best.' Much of that was due to the division in which they play, but the Nats haven't done themselves many favors. They have a good young core to build around — James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore — but the supporting cast just hasn't done enough to make much of a difference. Top prospect Dylan Crews didn't exactly hit the ground running, and short-term additions this offseason have been most disappointing. Somehow, the Nats' season has been both disheartening and predictable. — Jennings Record: 29-44 Last Power Ranking: 26 Preseason Power Ranking: 22 It's less what has happened, and more what hasn't: Paul Skenes hasn't been able to single-handedly lift the Pirates out of the mire. Would you like to guess who leads the NL in starting pitcher wins? Fine, I'll just tell you: it's a tie (8) between Robbie Ray of the Giants (2.55 ERA, 2.0 bWAR) and Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks (5.50 ERA, 0.2 bWAR). Skenes has an ERA of 1.78 and leads the NL in bWAR at 4.0. He's 4-6. The win is dead, and this is its obituary. The Pirates still can't score runs with any regularity, and unfortunately, scoring runs is a prerequisite to winning baseball games. The only real intrigue remaining is: Will they be able to capitalize at the trade deadline, and can Skenes win the Cy Young with a losing record? It's only happened once before, but never by a starter. Eric Gagne went 2-3 in 2003 (but also saved 55 games). — Weaver Advertisement Record: 30-44 Last Power Ranking: 27 Preseason Power Ranking: 25 I mean, you'd love to toss out that one month where the Athletics went 3-24. Outside of that, they've played some compelling baseball, fueled by more young talent that has you encouraged about the team's on-field future, however discouraging the team's which-field-are-we-talking-about future remains. On the other hand, you can't dismiss a full month when it represents a little under 40 percent of the season and when it completely tanks any incipient reveries about a wild-card push in the underwhelming American League. — Britton Record: 28-42 Last Power Ranking: 28 Preseason Power Ranking: 28 Gotta give us credit for this one, because we nailed it! We looked at a team that didn't have much of a lineup, didn't win much last season, and wasn't really trying to win this year, and said to ourselves: You know, this looks like one of the five worst teams in baseball. That's analysis, people! Now, if you want to nitpick, you could point out that we singled out Sandy Alcantara's return from the IL as a bright spot — he's unfortunately been not great — but that would be rude, and we're certain you'd never do that. Instead, we humbly accept your pat on the back for correctly identifying the Marlins as a not-very-good baseball team.— Jennings Record: 23-49 Last Power Ranking: 29 Preseason Power Ranking: 30 Unfortunately, the new Pope didn't work a miracle. What, did you think they were going to break a record for losses one year and then contend for the playoffs less than 12 months later? At least the Rockies spared them from perma-dwelling in the No. 30 spot, I guess. I'll leave this section to the world's premier White Sox fan: — Weaver Record: 15-57 Last Power Ranking: 30 Preseason Power Ranking: 29 In our preseason rankings, we had the Rockies ahead of the franchise that just set the record for most losses in a season, and the Rockies took umbrage. This was bulletin-board material. Were we not paying attention to another offseason of inertia? That the roster would legitimately suffer from the loss of the retired Charlie Blackmon, and that Brenton Doyle probably wouldn't be as good as he was last season? Did we overlook how they tied for the worst preseason projection Baseball Prospectus had ever handed out? More than 70 games into the season, Colorado is on pace to underperform that 55-win projection by 23 and to smash the record for losses set by the White Sox just last year by nine. — Britton
New York Times
22-04-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB Power Rankings: Cincinnati, Cleveland on the climb; What a difference a year makes
By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results. The Padres are on pace to go 118-44. The Rockies are on pace to go 31-131. But anyone can look at the standings and see that one team has a better record than another. Power rankings are for adding a little context to the wins and losses, with professional baseball writers looking to see if a team's record is actually misleading. So, in theory, it's possible the Rockies could rank ahead of the Padres if our panel of voters thought it was more indicative of their true talent levels. Advertisement Is that what happened? You will simply have to keep reading, friends. In this edition of the power rankings, we're looking back at where each of these teams ranked at this time last year and what that might tell us about where they're going. Record: 16-7 Last Power Ranking: 1 Ranking a year ago: 4 I filled in the 'ranking a year ago' section without checking. They were atop the power rankings a year ago, I'm sure of it. They'll be atop the power rankings next year. So I'm not going to check. Not unless my editor forces me to in the interest of 'due diligence' and not being 'a lazy jerkwad,' which, after checking a few Slack messages, appears to be the case. Fine. But I'm telling you, they were first. They were … fourth? How silly. Let that be a lesson to the people who want these power rankings to more closely reflect the current standings. If you do that, sometimes you'll suggest the best team in baseball is the fourth-best team in baseball, which is ridiculous. Save everyone the hassle. Just put the Dodgers first until they lose their 75th game of the season. — Grant Brisbee Record: 16-7 Last Power Ranking: 2 Ranking a year ago: 16 At this time last season, everyone was experiencing some measure of Padres fatigue. They were constantly winning offseasons and losing regular seasons, so it took only a month for people to get tired of the 2024 Padres. They were just going to be confusingly mediocre again, so 16th place it was. Then they got hot, with an 80-56 record after that. That's a .588 winning percentage and 95-win pace over a full season. This year, they've been even better, and they have the best record in baseball as of this writing. They're not above the Dodgers in this ranking because of that lingering Padres-fatigue, but if they can hold onto that best record for another week or two, maybe it'll be their turn. They've been outstanding for a full calendar year now. — Brisbee Advertisement Record: 16-7 Last Power Ranking: 3 Ranking a year ago: T-18 Here's a strong reminder of how much things can change between now and October. At this time last year, the Mets had a winning record — thanks to a six-game winning streak — but we weren't buying it. Catcher Francisco Alvarez had just gone on the IL, and the Mets seemed due for a swoon. And that's exactly what happened! The Mets were well below .500 by the end of May, but a great June and a strong September pushed them into the playoffs, where they advanced all the way to the NLCS. This year, we're having less trouble believing the Mets can make a run as they've moved to the top of the NL East. But check with us again next week after they're finished their current series against the Phillies and have played four against the Nationals. — Chad Jennings Record: 14-9 Last Power Ranking: 7 Ranking a year ago: 2 The Yankees are weird, man. In the past year, they've gotten Gerrit Cole healthy, then lost him again. They've failed to re-sign Juan Soto but added Max Fried. They've traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. They've had turnover at first base, second base, third base, left field, center field, and most of their rotation. They've used Luke Weaver as a closer, made Ben Rice their primary DH, and buried Trent Grisham on their bench only to start actually using him again this season to pretty decent results. After all that change … they're still pretty close to where they were a year ago as our top-ranked team in the American League. They're coming off a good stretch, too. — Jennings Record: 15-8 Last Power Ranking: 5 Ranking a year ago: 21 Last July, an intrepid and content-starved writer took a look at the provisional 2025 schedule and highlighted the future road trip the Giants just finished. It was an obvious bear trap — Yankees for three, Phillies for four and a cross-country trip to Anaheim for another three without an off day. And that was without knowing the Phillies would schedule their getaway-day game for 4:05 p.m. local time, which seems illegal. The Giants went 5-5, which doesn't sound very impressive, but last season's team would have finished 0-11. The extra loss would have just appeared on the schedule one day, and nobody would have bothered to correct it. The Giants are one of the biggest movers in this exercise, and their ability to look competent in the face of expected doom is yet another reason why. — Brisbee Advertisement Record: 13-10 Last Power Ranking: 4 Ranking a year ago: 5 The Phillies have been in this power rankings tier — easily top 10, often top 5, rarely No. 1 — for a few years now. They've built a familiar core and supplemented with semi-regular tweaks (new starter Jesús Luzardo has been awesome; new reliever Jordan Romano not so much), and the end result has been a kind of overall consistency despite an offense that can feel very boom-or-bust. The question isn't whether the Phillies are among the teams with a chance to win a championship. It's whether this will be the year they do enough at the end to actually make a deep run and maybe win the whole thing. Barring something extreme, we seem to have a fairly clear set of expectations through the end of September. — Jennings Record: 13-9 Last Power Ranking: 6 Ranking a year ago: 10 Last year at this time, the Diamondbacks were the reigning pennant winners, and they looked like an even stronger team. If you knew that they were going to lead baseball in runs scored by the end of last season, you might have even picked them to win the NL West. As is, their pitching was dreadful enough to keep them out of the postseason entirely. That felt like something of a fluke, though, which makes it extra impressive that they're up this high again with Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes scuffling. If the Diamondbacks get both of them back to their normal levels of run prevention, they could win 100 games. That might be good enough for only a fourth-place finish in the wacky NL West, perhaps, but still. They're a better team again, and this time it should stick. — Brisbee Record: 14-10 Last Power Ranking: 8 Ranking a year ago: 9 What no difference a year makes, eh? The Cubs' bullpen has been bad. Like, bottom five in the league in a lot of categories bad. But their offense has been incredibly good. Like top five in the league in a lot of categories good. They lead the sport in scoring (145 runs) and run differential (+41) Advertisement They did make one small move on Monday to try to shore up the bullpen, acquiring Drew Pomeranz from the Mariners, but here's a very weird and extreme example of the team we're working with. This is from Sahadev Sharma's story about last Friday's game: 'What happened over the next inning and a half was nearly impossible to describe. In less than an hour of baseball, the two teams traded blows, combining for 21 runs on 20 hits, including six home runs. The Cubs got punched in the jaw, blowing a six-run lead, only to counter, forcing Arizona to blow a four-run lead of its own.' Yeah. They gave up 10 runs in the eighth inning and came back to win the game. Good luck power ranking that. — Levi Weaver Record: 13-9 Last Power Ranking: 11 Ranking a year ago: 11 Last year's entry: According to Wins Above Average, the Rangers have the 20th-best pitching staff in baseball. According to FIP, the Rangers have the fourth-worst pitching staff in the majors. So, how are they in first place in the AL West as of this writing? Would you like to venture a guess which rotation leads the AL this year in ERA (2.85), FIP (3.34), fewest hits allowed (86), fewest home runs allowed (11, tied with Seattle), earned runs allowed (37) and opponent's batting average (.201), while leading the entire sport in walks-per-nine (2.24) and WHIP (0.96)? Look, when even a spider-bitten Patrick Corbin is putting up strong starts, you know something is going really right. For now, that translates to exactly the same ranking they had last year. But maybe that makes sense — they're in the exact same position in the standings they were last year, too. — Weaver Record: 14-9 Last Power Ranking: 9 Ranking a year ago: 20 It's not the biggest jump from last year to this year, but jumping 10 spots is still pretty impressive. Like the Royals, the Tigers made a huge year-over-year improvement in 2024 to shock the baseball world and make the postseason. Advertisement Unlike the Royals, they seem to be building on it this year. While we're looking back a year, here's one reason Detroit is thriving: A year ago, first-round picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize were partway through seasons that ultimately made a lot of folks wonder if one or both might not be quite as good as they'd been hyped up to be. This year: no, no — they're good. In relatively recent years, the AL Central has felt a little like a 'first team to not suck, even a little bit, wins the division' situation. Last year changed that, and it looks like the Tigers are trying to make it very clear who's in charge moving forward. — Weaver Record: 13-11 Last Power Ranking: 10 Ranking a year ago: 17 At this time last year, four AL East teams ranked among our top 11. The Red Sox were the lone exception, having fallen well out of favor with our voters. This year, they're back in the mix — even flirting with the top 10 — but they're part of the American League's murky second tier. We have the Yankees as the best team in the AL, followed by a choose-your-own adventure of next-best teams, none of which is really setting itself apart. The Red Sox had a chance to absolutely dominate the White Sox through seven games in the past 10 days and were just kind of meh. — Jennings Record: 12-10 Last Power Ranking: 13 Ranking a year ago: 13 The Mariners are back, baby. Not only did they win two series on the road last week, but also they've scored eight or more runs in three out of their past four games. Over the past couple of seasons, the Mariners' problem has been painfully obvious: Score more runs, you dullards. If they can manage that, they'll win the division going away. Last year at this time, they were also on the road and scoring more runs than expected. What's old is new again. This time, though … this time the offensive surge will definitely stick. Unless the Mariners are trapped in 12th- and 13th-ranked purgatory forever. That might be the Occam's Razor explanation, to be honest. Until we know either way, here's one spot closer to the top. Don't spend it all in one place. — Brisbee Advertisement Record: 13-9 Last Power Ranking: 19 Ranking a year ago: 8 Last year around this time, it looked like the Guardians (16-6 at the time) were en route to run away with the AL Central — surely the Tigers and Royals weren't going to hang around all season long. The 7-12 start by the Twins looked like an early elimination of their biggest competition for an AL Central title. That ended up being mostly true, though it was closer than we expected. The Guardians outlasted both Kansas City and Detroit, winning the division by 6 1/2 games and sticking around in the playoffs longer than both before losing the ALCS to the Yankees. This year, it's more of a dogfight and we all know it. Not only are the Guardians performing a little worse — Emmanuel Clase seems human, for one — but also the Tigers seem legit and the Royals … well, they did make the playoffs last year, even if they don't seem destined for a repeat performance. For more on the Twins and White Sox, you'll need to keep scrolling down. Further. Further. Almost there … — Weaver Record: 9-13 Last Power Ranking: 12 Ranking a year ago: 1 You don't have to go back a full year to see how far — and how quickly — the Braves have fallen in the eyes of our voters. When this season started, the Braves were No. 2 in our rankings. They were getting healthy again, and we were bullish on a bounce back. Instead, this season is so far even worse than last season. The Braves lost their first seven games, Jurickson Profar got suspended, Reynaldo López had surgery, they've played musical chairs in the bullpen, their outfielders have been awful, and — well — now our power rankings have them middle-of-the-pack, and that's being generous given their record. A weekend sweep of the Twins was at least a step in the right direction. — Jennings Record: 12-11 Last Power Ranking: 16 Ranking a year ago: T-11 The Blue Jays lately have been one of those teams that always seem capable of going either direction. Some middle-of-the-pack teams get ranked all over the place by our individual voters, but our votes are pretty well bunched together on the Blue Jays. Basically, just rank them somewhere in the middle, and adjust a bit up or down if they get hot or cold. At this time last year, they'd won seven of nine, and so they were up. Within a couple of weeks, they were losing again and back down to No. 18. This year, they have a winning record, but their run differential is uninspiring. For now, continue to assume they're somewhere in the middle of the pack, trending on and off the playoff bubble with each good and bad week. — Jennings Record: 12-11 Last Power Ranking: 18 Ranking a year ago: 6 It can't be a huge surprise that the Brewers have slipped since last year; they are essentially a racecar shedding parts as they speed around the track. It's truly admirable that they haven't crashed and (Corbin) burned (get it?) a long time ago, but you can't stay in motion forever on one alternator, three tires and an exhausted nutria being fed Monster energy drinks intravenously. Advertisement But also … they're still running!? No, literally: they lead the league in stolen bases (34), and on Sunday, they stole six bases in the first inning en route to a nine-steal game. They might have slipped into the bottom half of these power rankings, but that's still a very fun brand of baseball to watch. — Weaver Record: 11-11 Last Power Ranking: 15 Ranking a year ago: 18 A year ago, the Astros were absolutely cooked. They were 7-17, which made it tough on power rankers who err on the side of a team's true talent level instead of year-to-date performance. Their early record suggested the Astros were almost the worst team in baseball, but their roster suggested they were going to start winning a lot more games. Eventually, they started winning a lot more games because they were actually a good team. Sometimes it's just that simple. The 2025 Astros have a similar ranking to the one from 364 days ago, even though they have a much better record than they did back then. So consider this a vote of no-confidence from the same writers from last season. There isn't nearly enough they-should-be-better sentiment for the 2025 Astros to make up for what's been a supremely mediocre start so far. — Brisbee Record: 9-12 Last Power Ranking: 13 Ranking a year ago: 3 At this time last year, the Orioles were 15-7 coming off a 101-win season. Our top-three ranking wasn't so much benefit of the doubt as it was a logical interpretation of the evidence. The Orioles were good and young and flourishing, all signs pointing in the right direction. A year later, we're not so sure. We obviously don't hate this team, but the Orioles haven't been able to sustain much momentum since the middle of last season (they played .500 ball in the second half of last year). The team still has a lot of good young talent — Gunnar Henderson's numbers are going to turn around — but concerns about their pitching seem justified, especially after Baltimore allowed 24 runs on Sunday. Right now, our voters see the Orioles more middle-of-the-pack than anywhere near the top of the sport. — Jennings Record: 11-12 Last Power Ranking: 22 Ranking a year ago: 14 I can't get over that the Cincinnati Reds lost three consecutive 1-0 games this year, and also won Sunday's game by a score of 24-2. If I look through my Optimism Glasses, I can definitely see a playoff team with a better-than-you-think rotation beginning to coalesce under the steady leadership of Terry Francona. If I put on my Pessimism Shades, I can see a team that is so wildly inconsistent that its destiny is to play September spoilers by, I don't know, sweeping the Cubs to knock them out of the playoffs, while finishing with a 76-86 record. (I have somehow managed to upset two fan bases with one hypothetical; sound off here.) Advertisement We hereby award them 19th place and a complimentary one of these cute little guys: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — Weaver Record: 9-13 Last Power Ranking: 17 Ranking a year ago: 7 When we ranked the Rays seventh a year ago, it was despite a .500 record, an offense that hadn't been very productive and a rotation that was missing three key arms. In short, we were giving the Rays some benefit of the doubt. But not so much today. Their run differential is positive, but we've clearly become skeptical after a down year that saw the Rays rebuild at the trade deadline. An early surprise for the Rays is outfielder Kameron Misner, who made the roster because of one injury, got into the regular lineup because of another, and has been one of their most productive hitters. The Rays seem always to have a surprise up their sleeves, but last week they dropped back-to-back series against the Red Sox and Yankees, which isn't going to help in a tough division. — Jennings Record: 9-14 Last Power Ranking: T-20 Ranking a year ago: 15 It felt weird seeing the Royals this high on the list last year. This year, now that they're a playoff team and all, it feels a little weird to see them this low. The rotation has been about as good as they could expect, ranking near the top in quite a few statistics. Cole Ragans leads the league in strikeouts and Kris Bubic has an ERA under 2.00. That's wild. But the offense has been … stinky. They rank in the bottom three in average, on-base percentage, slugging and quite a lot of other categories. Bobby Witt Jr. is still crushing it, but look at the team leaderboard in OPS (min. 60 PAs): Witt: .847 Maikel Garcia: .770 Vinnie Pasquantino: .593 Jonathan India: .568 Salvador Perez: .529 Yikes. — Weaver Record: 11-10 Last Power Ranking: T-20 Ranking a year ago: 26 A jump of four places doesn't sound like much, and maybe it's not, but it's pretty hard to ignore the vibe shift of the Angels right now. Nolan Schanuel is hitting the ball harder. Zach Neto is off the IL. Kyren Paris has cooled off dramatically (two hits, no walks and 12 strikeouts in his past 23 plate appearances), but he's already done enough to start thinking of him as a long-term contributor at second base. Advertisement It's not Garvey-Lopes-Russell-Cey yet, but having an entire infield in place for years to come seems like a great step toward the next competitive Angels team. It certainly feels a lot closer than it was a year ago. — Brisbee Record: 7-15 Last Power Ranking: 24 Ranking a year ago: 22 Last year, the Twins got off to a bad start, then got off to a bad ending, and now they're off to a bad start again. The in-between was occasionally fine, and even dipped into the realm of 'fun.' There was sausage involved, and Rocco Baldelli acknowledged it with the dutiful exhaustion of a teenage boy's dad when his friends ask about his kid's band. 'Ha ha, yeah … I guess, man. They have two drummers and no singer, but they're having fun and a bunch of kids are coming out to the shows, so what do I know?' Anyway, after the Twins more or less put an end to the Braves' own very bad start by getting swept, a lot fewer kids are coming out to the shows. Attendance is way down since there are apparently other cool things to do in the Twin Cities this time of year. On the upside, Luke Keaschall has been pretty good upon making his big-league debut. So that's … something, at least. — Weaver Record: 9-14 Last Power Ranking: 23 Ranking a year ago: 24 The last time the Cardinals had two consecutive full seasons under .500 was 1958 and 1959. That statement is carefully worded to exclude the strike-shortened season of 1994, but it's still bonkers. Bob Gibson was a rookie on the last Cardinals team to play a second straight full season of losing ball. However, the last time the Cardinals allowed more runs than they scored in a full season — a Pythagorean record under .500 — was in 2023 and 2024. While they've been a little Pythag-unlucky this year, that's still a sign that the days of reliable contending might be over for good this time. The Earth went around the Sun once, and the Cards are still 24th. There's no guarantee they'll rank higher in another year, either. — Brisbee Advertisement Record: 10-12 Last Power Ranking: T-26 Ranking a year ago: 25 The A's have four starting pitchers with an ERA better than the league average, and they have three oft-used relievers with ERAs starting with '0.' It's pretty hard to start with that sort of run prevention and end up with the third-worst adjusted ERA in baseball, but they've done it. If you're wondering 'how?', there are seven pitchers alluded to up there, but there are 13 pitchers on the A's staff. The other six pitchers are doing a lot of work, and it's not the kind of work that makes you whistle while you're doing it. It's a shame, because the A's are hitting the ball well as a team, too, and they could be leading a sleepy AL West. As is, they need their ineffective players to be more effective, which is roughly where they were last year. — Brisbee Record: 9-13 Last Power Ranking: T-26 Ranking a year ago: 25 Our year-over-year rankings suggest the Nationals have been pretty stagnant. And I'll speak for myself here in saying that I want to believe in the Nats. More than most other teams in the bottom third of our power rankings, the Nationals have shown signs of future life. They have three solid starters in their mid-20s, James Wood and CJ Abrams look good, and Keibert Ruiz is off to a nice start at the plate. Get Dylan Crews and Luis Garcia going, and the Nationals could have a solid foundation for the long term. But it's just not leading to many wins in the short term. — Jennings Record: 8-15 Last Power Ranking: 28 Ranking a year ago: 23 Since last year's entry, the Pirates have: • Called up Paul Skenes, who won the NL Rookie of the Year • Uh • I mean • They signed Tommy Pham • He's pretty good, right? • Y'all hear about this Andrew Heaney fella? It's not that there aren't some exciting young players on the team. Oneil Cruz hits the ball with a frankly shocking largesse of unfettered malice in his heart. Bryan Reynolds is an All-Star and the sort of player who could be on a playoff team. Their starting rotation is fun and exciting and hopeful. But the thing about baseball is that the teams who make the playoffs tend to be the ones who have invested in things like … free agents, for example. — Weaver Record: 10-12 Last Power Ranking: 25 Ranking a year ago: 28 Advertisement It didn't take us long to identify the three worst teams in baseball last season. By the end of April, the Marlins, Rockies and White Sox were the last three teams in our rankings, and indeed they finished — in that order — with the three worst records in the league. The Marlins seem to be not as bad this season. Obviously, we're still not sold on them as a playoff team, but they have some decent hitters (and still some awful ones) behind a rotation that now has both Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer (who'd been recently optioned to Triple A at this time last year). Add in a couple of so-far, so-good relievers and we obviously think the Marlins are better, but maybe not that much better. — Jennings Record: 5-17 Last Power Ranking: 29 Ranking a year ago: 30 Last year, the White Sox had a historically bad year. This year, they are having a slightly less historically bad year. Going 5-17 should in no way feel like an improvement, but last year, they didn't win their fifth game until they were 4-22. This year, they did it when they were a mere 4-16. Baby steps, right? [receives a memo] Ah. I've been given an update here. It says that the baby has now tripped and fallen directly into a kitty litter box, and is rolling around in the litter. Someone taught him some swear words, and he's saying those over and over. He's laughing and crying at the same time. Aaaaand now he's putting some of the litter in his mouth. Great. Who thought it was a good idea to teach this baby how to walk? — Weaver Record: 4-17 Last Power Ranking: 30 Ranking a year ago: 29 Hey, the Rockies are making progress! It's the wrong kind of progress, but still, keep it up, fellas. The only reason they won't be in 31st place next week is because of 'rules' and 'mathematics,' but give them just a little more time. A team with this kind of roster has the potential to break all sorts of norms and expectations. Until then, here's a meme: — Brisbee (Top photo of Elly De La Cruz: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
