Latest news with #ChangShu
Business Times
4 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Trump tariffs to decimate China profits: analysis
Most of China's industries cannot survive US President Donald Trump's tariffs at current levels, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Economics (BE). Tariffs now set at roughly 40 per cent compare with average industrial profit margins of about 14.8 per cent in 2024. That gap could prompt more intense price cuts, weakening profits, and – in the worst case – layoffs and potentially a wave of bankruptcies and closures, analysts Chang Shu, David Qu and Maeva Cousin found. Among industries most at risk are textiles, IT and communication equipment and furniture manufacturing. Of 33 industrial sectors that analysts considered, only five have margins that are wider than tariff rates. They include pharmaceuticals, tobacco and oil and gas extraction. 'Some companies with a heavy dependence on the US market may not survive,' economists led by Chang Shu wrote in a research note on Thursday (Jul 17). 'Others will scramble to adapt – accepting lower margins, laying off workers, cutting wages, and potentially flooding the domestic and other foreign markets with cut-price goods.' The findings underscore the economic risks that tariffs pose to the world's second-largest economy at a time when domestic consumption remains sluggish. Trade officials continue to negotiate with US counterparts on a bilateral deal to avoid another escalation in levies; earlier this year, tariffs on China soared to 145 per cent. Data last week underscored the Asian giant's reliance on industrial production and exports to fuel growth. While gross domestic product advanced 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, outpacing analysts' estimates, it was helped by shipment frontloading and manufacturers cutting prices, both of which are tough to sustain. Nearly half of China's industrial sectors rely on overseas markets to absorb 10 per cent or more of their output, the BE analysis found, and the US remains the country's largest single-country trading partner. Elevated tariffs could, in the long run, prompt companies in the US to source goods from other countries, the analysts wrote. To be sure, there are factors that could cushion the blow to China's industry, including exports to other countries in which goods do not face the same trade barriers. Some products may also be absorbed by domestic demand. Some sectors have also cornered the global market, making it difficult or impossible for US firms to find needed items elsewhere. China's government could also step in with additional fiscal support. BLOOMBERG
Business Times
5 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Trump tariffs to decimate China profits: Bloomberg Economics
Most of China's industries can't survive US President Donald Trump's tariffs at current levels, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Economics (BE). Tariffs now set at roughly 40 per cent compare with average industrial profit margins of about 14.8 per cent in 2024. That gap could prompt more intense price cuts, weakening profits, and – in the worst case – layoffs and potentially a wave of bankruptcies and closures, analysts Chang Shu, David Qu and Maeva Cousin found. Among industries most at risk are textiles, IT and communication equipment and furniture manufacturing. Of 33 industrial sectors that analysts considered, only five have margins that are wider than tariff rates. They include pharmaceuticals, tobacco and oil and gas extraction. 'Some companies with a heavy dependence on the US market may not survive,' economists led by Chang Shu wrote in a research note on Thursday (Jul 17). 'Others will scramble to adapt – accepting lower margins, laying off workers, cutting wages, and potentially flooding the domestic and other foreign markets with cut-price goods.' The findings underscore the economic risks that tariffs pose to the world's second-largest economy at a time when domestic consumption remains sluggish. Trade officials continue to negotiate with US counterparts on a bilateral deal to avoid another escalation in levies; earlier this year, tariffs on China soared to 145 per cent. Data last week underscored the Asian giant's reliance on industrial production and exports to fuel growth. While gross domestic product advanced 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, outpacing analysts' estimates, it was helped by shipment frontloading and manufacturers cutting prices, both of which are tough to sustain. Nearly half of China's industrial sectors rely on overseas markets to absorb 10 per cent or more of their output, the BE analysis found, and the US remains the country's largest single-country trading partner. Elevated tariffs could, in the long run, prompt companies in the US to source goods from other countries, the analysts wrote. To be sure, there are factors that could cushion the blow to China's industry, including exports to other countries in which goods don't face the same trade barriers. Some products may also be absorbed by domestic demand. Some sectors have also cornered the global market, making it difficult or impossible for US firms to find needed items elsewhere. China's government could also step in with additional fiscal support. BLOOMBERG
Straits Times
a day ago
- Business
- Straits Times
Trump duties to decimate China profits, says Bloomberg Economics
Find out what's new on ST website and app. Chinese textiles are among the industries most at risk from US President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. HONG KONG – Most of China's industries cannot survive US President Donald Trump's tariffs at current levels, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Economics. Tariffs now set at roughly 40 per cent compare with average industrial profit margins of about 14.8 per cent in 2024. That gap may prompt more intense price cuts, weakening profits, and – in the worst case – layoffs and potentially a wave of bankruptcies and closures, according to analysts Chang Shu, David Qu and Maeva Cousin. Among industries most at risk are textiles, IT and communication equipment and furniture manufacturing. Of 33 industrial sectors that analysts considered, only five have margins that are wider than tariff rates. They include pharmaceuticals, tobacco and oil and gas extraction. 'Some companies with a heavy dependence on the US market may not survive,' the analysts wrote in a research note. 'Others will scramble to adapt, accepting lower margins, laying off workers, cutting wages, and potentially flooding the domestic and other foreign markets with cut-price goods.' Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore Mindef, SAF units among those dealing with attack on S'pore's critical information infrastructure Asia How China's growing cyber-hacking capabilities have raised alarm around the world Asia Autogate glitch at Malaysia's major checkpoints causes chaos for S'porean and foreign travellers Singapore A deadly cocktail: Easy access, lax attitudes driving Kpod scourge in S'pore Singapore 'I thought it was an April Fool's joke': Teen addicted to Kpods on news that friend died Singapore Who decides when you can't? A guide on planning for end-of-life care Singapore Why hiring more teachers makes sense, even with falling student numbers Singapore Bukit Panjang LRT disruption: Train service resumes after power fault affects 13-station line The findings underscore the economic risks that tariffs pose to the world's second-largest economy at a time when domestic consumption remains sluggish. Trade officials continue to negotiate with their US counterparts on a bilateral deal to avoid another escalation in levies. Earlier in 2025, tariffs on China soared to 145 per cent . Data this week underscored the Asian giant's reliance on industrial production and exports to fuel growth. While gross domestic product advanced 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, outpacing analysts' estimates, it was helped by shipment frontloading and manufacturers cutting prices, both of which are tough to sustain. Nearly half of China's industrial sectors rely on overseas markets to absorb 10 per cent or more of their output, the Bloomberg analysis found, and the US remains China's largest single-country trading partner. Elevated tariffs could, in the long run, prompt companies in the US to source goods from other countries, the analysts wrote. To be sure, there are factors that could cushion the blow to China's industry, including exports to other countries in which goods do not face the same trade barriers. Some products may also be absorbed by domestic demand. Some sectors have also cornered the global market, making it difficult or impossible for US firms to find needed items elsewhere. China's government could also step in with additional fiscal support. BLOOMBERG
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Business Standard
a day ago
- Business
- Business Standard
China's industrial sectors at risk as Trump tariffs exceed profit margins
Most of China's industries can't survive President Donald Trump's tariffs at current levels, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg Economics. Tariffs now set at roughly 40 per cent compare with average industrial profit margins of about 14.8 per cent in 2024. That gap could prompt more intense price cuts, weakening profits, and — in the worst case — layoffs and potentially a wave of bankruptcies and closures, analysts Chang Shu, David Qu and Maeva Cousin found. Among industries most at risk are textiles, IT and communication equipment and furniture manufacturing. Of 33 industrial sectors that analysts considered, only five have margins that are wider than tariff rates. They include pharmaceuticals, tobacco and oil and gas extraction. 'Some companies with a heavy dependence on the US market may not survive,' economists led by Chang Shu wrote in a research note Thursday. 'Others will scramble to adapt — accepting lower margins, laying off workers, cutting wages, and potentially flooding the domestic and other foreign markets with cut-price goods.' The findings underscore the economic risks that tariffs pose to the world's second largest economy at a time when domestic consumption remains sluggish. Trade officials continue to negotiate with US counterparts on a bilateral deal to avoid another escalation in levies; earlier this year, tariffs on China soared to 145 per cent. Data this week underscored the Asian giant's reliance on industrial production and exports to fuel growth. While gross domestic product advanced 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, outpacing analysts' estimates, it was helped by shipment frontloading and manufacturers cutting prices, both of which are tough to sustain. Nearly half of China's industrial sectors rely on overseas markets to absorb 10 per cent or more of their output, the BE analysis found, and the US remains the country's largest single-country trading partner. Elevated tariffs could in the long run prompt companies in the US to source goods from other countries, the analysts wrote. To be sure, there are factors that could cushion the blow to China's industry, including exports to other countries in which goods don't face the same trade barriers. Some products may also be absorbed by domestic demand. Some sectors have also cornered the global market, making it difficult or impossible for US firms to find needed items elsewhere. China's government could also step in with additional fiscal support.
Bloomberg
20-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
APAC Economic Update: Global Macro, Tariffs & Strategic Tools
As global markets continue to navigate uncertainty driven by shifting tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and diverging central bank paths, understanding the macroeconomic landscape has never been more critical. That's why, throughout July, Bloomberg is hosting a range of events focused on clarifying the global and regional macro landscape—and we're thrilled to invite you to the flagship webinar. Join our top economic minds and product experts as they break down the key themes shaping the outlook across the U.S., China, and Japan—from trade policy and election cycles to monetary divergence and regional spillovers—all grounded in Bloomberg's data-rich economic research. This session will be conducted in English with AI subtitle support in various languages, including Simplified Chinese and Japanese. Reserve your place now. Speakers Chang Shu Chief Asia Economist Bloomberg Chang Shu is Bloomberg's Chief Asia Economist, based in Hong Kong. She leads a team to research into China, Japan, Australia and other major economies in the Asia-Pacific. She previously worked as a senior economist at the Bank for International Settlements and Hong Kong Monetary Authority. In those capacities, she researched widely into the global and Chinese economies. She was also closely involved into policy work including renminbi internationalisation. Prior to these, she also worked at the Bank of England. She is also a director at the Chinese Financial Association of Hong Kong. She edited Currency Internationalisation: Global Experiences and Implications for the Renminbi' and 'Cross-border Financial Linkages in Asia and the Pacific: Implications for Systemic Risks'. She has written extensively on the Chinese economy, renminbi internationalization and financial spillovers from China. She holds a PhD degree in Finance from the Birmingham University, UK. Hyosung kwon Economist, Korea Bloomberg Hyosung is the Korea Economist for Bloomberg Economics. He is responsible for macroeconomic forecasting and researching various economic sectors including monetary and fiscal policy, foreign exchange, property markets, and geo-economic developments. With a 20-year tenure at the Bank of Korea as s senior economist, he formerly headed the Monetary Policy Analysis team. He played a key role in formulating monetary policy strategies, economic forecasts, and building macroeconomic models at the Bank. He holds a PhD in economics from Boston University.
