Latest news with #ChantelleBramley
RNZ News
7 days ago
- Business
- RNZ News
Heavy rain fills hydro lakes, boosts winter energy supplies
Lake Pūkaki, New Zealand's largest hydro storage lake, in March. Photo: Supplied/Meridian The country looks set to get through this winter with no squeeze on energy supplies but is still at risk from energy demand peaks. The national grid operator Transpower said concerns at the start of the year about reduced gas supply and dry conditions had eased after wet weather filled hydro lakes. Large generators had also struck deals with major industrial users such as Methanex and the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter, along with an increased coal stockpile. Transpower said hydro lake levels had recovered to be at average levels for this time of year. In the past week alone total hydro storage increased by 18 gigawatt hours, according to data from Energy Link. Transpower's executive general manager of operations Chantelle Bramley said the outlook for this winter "has definitely improved". "We started the year with a dry period, and we did see our hydro storage rapidly decline," she said. "But we've seen a strong market response, particularly with increased thermal generation and that set us up well to meet New Zealand's electricity needs this winter." However, Bramley said demand peaks - such as those seen last year - remained a risk. "Those are challenges that we will always potentially face - making sure that we've got enough generation plants available to meet those coldest evenings and mornings," Bramley said. "Events can always happen, and power plants can always break down," she said. Bramley said the industry spent "a lot of time and energy" ensuring their plants were in working order for winter. "It's really important that generators do work to keep [power plants] available and we've certainly seen that for this year." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Scoop
29-06-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Gas Decline Increases Urgency For New Electricity Generation
Declining gas availability means New Zealand has to lift the pace at which it is delivering new electricity generation to reliably meet growing demand over the coming years, a new report from Transpower shows. Electricity generation investment is accelerating but until new plant is delivered, the sector must continue to work together to make the most of existing electricity generation assets through careful maintenance of generation units and ensuring sufficient hydro storage and thermal fuel is available to run them across winter. These are key findings from an assessment of New Zealand's electricity generation and supply outlook for the coming decade that has been released by Transpower following consultation with the electricity sector. The final version incorporates views from industry, but findings remain consistent with the consultation draft. Transpower Executive General Manager Operations Chantelle Bramley said the annual Security of Supply Assessment (SOSA), which covers the decade through to 2034, also highlights a clear solution to these security of supply risks over the medium term. 'New Zealand needs to continue to accelerate the speed at which planned investment is delivered if we are going to stay ahead of growing demand and provide the reliable and affordable electricity New Zealand depends on,' she said. Advertisement - scroll to continue reading 'Any delay in new resources entering the market will put more strain on existing resources, impacting the ability to manage energy and capacity challenges, which will impact the sector's ability to meet growth in demand for electricity across New Zealand.' The report shows that the sector is already responding to the challenge with a 350 MW increase in newly commissioned generation since the last assessment in 2024. This is around 3.5% of existing installed generation capacity, which is enough to power Wellington, the Hutt Valley and Kapiti on the average weekday. The quantity of committed projects has also increased by approximately 1,500 MW since the last assessment, or 15% of current installed capacity, as have planned but unconsented projects every year for the next decade. 'These movements indicate the supply pipeline is being developed and continues to expand,' Ms Bramley said. 'However, with so much of the supply pipeline unconsented, there is risk that these projects could be delayed, deferred or dropped. So, it's essential for New Zealand that we pick up the pace and move planned projects quickly through the financing, consenting, design, build and commissioning phases so that they can start contributing much-needed megawatts. 'That's a challenge for the electricity sector, but it's also a challenge for all of New Zealand. We must all pull together to pave the way for this absolutely critical investment in the country's prosperity.' Sector coordination the solution to tight supply Ms Bramley said that New Zealand currently faces two main risks to electricity supply that need to be carefully managed by the electricity sector in the face of declining gas. 'The first is making sure we have enough energy across the winter if it doesn't rain for an extended period, as happened last year and early in 2025, or if there are faults to key equipment, further declines in gas availability or interruptions to coal supplies,' she said. 'The other is ensuring we can meet demand on the coldest mornings and evenings if the wind isn't blowing, the sun isn't shining, and not all other generation is available, either due to maintenance needs, fuel shortages, or faults. 'The market is well aware of the immediate challenges we face due to the sudden decline of gas and is already acting to manage them. This includes working together to make the most of existing electricity generation assets and ensuring there is enough fuel to run them across winter. 'It is good to see the industry advancing arrangements to extend the life of Genesis Energy's third Rankine unit at Huntly and securing coal reserves at that site to reduce the impact on electricity generation from falling gas availability.' The assessment assumes all three Rankine units at Huntly are fuelled and operational but factors in the planned retirement of Contact Energy's TCC gas plant in Taranaki. If there were a plant failure or retirement of a thermal generator like the third Rankine unit, risk would increase and new generation would need to be built even faster. Firm, flexible resources needed to manage capacity risk The assessment shows that more than 85% of the unconsented pipeline is intermittent wind and solar generation, with most of the rest being battery projects. While wind and solar add much needed renewable energy to the system, they must be supported by firm and flexible power system resources that can kick in when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. Batteries are a part of the solution to these short duration capacity risks. New Zealand's first major battery, WEL Network's Rotohiko battery, was commissioned in 2023, Meridian Energy's 100 MW Ruakākā battery has recently been commissioned, and Contact Energy's 100 MW Glenbrook-Ohurua battery will start commissioning this year. Genesis Energy's 100 MW battery at Huntly is expected to be operational by late 2026. Battery projects account for around 2,500 MW of new capacity in the 2025 SOSA pipeline that is slated to be built over the next decade, compared to just over 1,000 MW in the 2024 SOSA. However, over half of these projects are not yet consented, indicating a higher degree of uncertainty. Other firm, flexible resources include gas or biofuel peaking generators that can be fired up at short notice. Hydro lakes are a high-class firm and flexible resource with hydro generation able to be quickly ramped up to help meet peak demand if not already operating at full capacity. Long duration energy support will need to come from thermal plant for some time yet to meet New Zealand's unique 'dry winter' risks, and the arrangements being advanced in relation to Huntly are a good step forward. Demand response also provides flexibility to the system. This is where industrial customers or electricity retailers working with their customers scale back demand during peak periods, typically in response to higher prices. As part of this, consumer energy resources have a role to play in smarter electricity use, including shifting demand away from peak periods. Notes: Transpower prepares and publishes the Security of Supply Assessment (SOSA) annually in its system operator role as required under the Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy (SOSFIP). This assessment provides a ten-year view (2025 to 2034) of the balance between supply and demand in the New Zealand electricity system. Market participants, policy makers and other stakeholders use it to inform risk management and investment decisions, including about development of new generation and transmission infrastructure. The analysis uses electricity demand and supply forecasts to assess whether there will be enough energy and capacity to meet security standards over the coming decade. The Electricity Authority sets these energy and capacity security standards, and these represent an efficient level of reliability—that is, where the expected cost of electricity shortages is equal to the expected cost of new generation. The assessment is based on existing electricity generation as well as planned generation at different stages of the development process. Current and high-quality information from the electricity and other stakeholders on existing and future investment in generation, energy storage and demand response is a critical part of the development process. The final report has regard to feedback on a draft report released for consultation on 9 May. Five submissions were received. These can be found on the consultation page of Transpower's website alongside the final assessment and other key documents.
Scoop
23-04-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Access To Contingent Storage Clarified For Winter 2025 Ahead Of Full Rules Review
Press Release – Transpower Transpower has today clarified its process for triggering access to hydro lake water below normal operating levels for electricity generation ahead of winter 2025. This follows feedback on an Issues Paper released last month about the information it … Transpower has today clarified its process for triggering access to hydro lake water below normal operating levels for electricity generation ahead of winter 2025. This follows feedback on an Issues Paper released last month about the information it publishes in its System Operator role to help the electricity sector manage security of supply risks. This is the first step towards a full review of the data and assumptions used to monitor and assess security of supply outlined in the System Operator Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy (SOSFIP). Transpower Executive General Manager Operations Chantelle Bramley said the System Operator received a range of views from the electricity industry as well as major users of electricity, consent authorities and community groups about actions that can be taken for winter 2025. 'We've listened, and it's clear from feedback that there are complex issues to be addressed in the review to ensure any permanent change doesn't inadvertently have an adverse impact on security of supply,' Ms Bramley said. 'In the meantime, stakeholders have confirmed that the System Operator should retain discretion under the rules to trigger earlier access to additional water, known as contingent hydro storage, if it becomes necessary this winter. 'So, we've provided a great deal more clarity to participants around how access to contingent hydro storage could be triggered this winter in advance of the full review.' Contingent storage refers to water below a level set out in the relevant resource consents held by generators that, due to environmental and community requirements, can only be used to avoid shortages of electricity supply to consumers. Transpower will look at contingent storage again as it progresses through a complete review of the policy ahead of next winter. It will make recommendations to the Electricity Authority who will ultimately make the decision on any changes to the SOSFIP. The work will be completed in time for winter 2026. This would give industry and other key stakeholders, including resource consent authorities, more time to consider and provide feedback on the implications of any changes. Transpower focus on security of supply supported Ms Bramley said that it is clear from the wide range of submissions that delivering a secure supply of electricity now and into the future is the priority for all stakeholders during a complex energy transition. 'There are no easy answers here,' she said. 'New Zealand is leading the world in addressing these questions due to our extraordinarily high level of renewable electricity and the challenges brought about by the rapid decline in natural gas availability for back up generation. 'Making it easier to use contingent hydro storage to reduce gas and coal burn may feel like a no-brainer, but it isn't. It is our fuel of last resort. If we use our contingent hydro storage early and it doesn't rain, we can run out of energy later in winter. 'Our decision puts New Zealand's security of supply first, while giving hydro generators much greater clarity about the process for accessing contingent hydro for winter 2025.' New Zealand is reliant on an aging fleet of thermal generation units to provide back-up to our abundant renewable energy resources when the wind isn't blowing, sun isn't shining or we experience prolonged dry spells, as we have this year and last. Even if alternative fuel such as gas or coal are secured to run these thermal units, if one or more fails later in winter then we will need spare water in the system so that hydro generation output can be increased while the back-up power station is fixed. Ms Bramley also said that Transpower has to take into account future years as well as the immediate situation. 'If we use the contingent hydro stored water this year, we enter the next year relying on above average levels of rain to top up the lakes for winter,' she said. 'In all of these circumstances the risk of electricity shortage is very real, and this drives the potential for very high wholesale electricity prices, like we saw last year.' The full review of the policy will enable all stakeholders to consider how permanent changes can be made in support of secure and affordable electricity for Kiwis. 'In the meantime, Transpower will continue to work with the Electricity Authority and the wider industry to prepare for this winter,' Ms Bramley said. Market urged to secure fuel ahead of a potentially dry winter Transpower figures show that New Zealand's controlled hydro catchments have had the driest start to the year in 93 years of historic records. While recent inflows have helped arrest the decline, national controlled storage is sitting at just 82% of average for this time of year, which is in the bottom 10% of historic levels for this stage in April. At the same time, security of supply risk is elevated with gas supply constrained and some of New Zealand's thermal generators nearing end of life and therefore more prone to faults. Ms Bramley said Transpower continues to emphasise the need for the market to continue to co-ordinate early to increase the energy buffer heading into winter 2025. 'This is essential for diversifying risk away from reliance on hydro storage, and to insure against other factors such as unplanned outages to key generation assets,' she said. 'A system-wide response is underway, including continued focus on managing hydro storage levels and securing alternative fuel supplies such as coal, gas and diesel.' Submissions on the SOSFIP issues paper and Transpower's summary and response are on Transpower's website. Notes: Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy (SOSFIP) The SOSFIPis a system operation document approved by the Electricity Authority and incorporated by reference into the Electricity Industry Participation Code. The SOSFIP describes how Transpower as the System Operator prepares and publishes information to assist participants to manage security of supply risks. The Authority is responsible for over-arching market design under which the SOSFIP sits and must approve any changes to it consistent with its statutory objective. It is the role of Transpower as the System Operator to operate the SOSFIP, and the System Operator must comply with the SOSFIP that is current at the time. The SOSFIP addresses physical supply risks and does not consider price impacts. The current SOSFIP can be found on the Authority's website. Transpower focus on security of supply The Government Policy Statement on Electricity released on 1 October 2024 supports the SOSFIP framework by making clear that Transpower has no authority in its system operator role to shield participants from commercial risk if they don't hedge against dry year risk. Transpower's reporting framework under SOSFIP is focused on security of electricity supply and it has no ability to set or control wholesale electricity prices. Prices are a matter for the market and reflect generators' commercial decisions, including how much fuel to stockpile, when to use it, and what to charge for it. Fuels include water in hydro lakes, thermal fuels like coal and gas, as well as the number and location of wind, solar and geothermal generators across the country.
Scoop
22-04-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Access To Contingent Storage Clarified For Winter 2025 Ahead Of Full Rules Review
Transpower has today clarified its process for triggering access to hydro lake water below normal operating levels for electricity generation ahead of winter 2025. This follows feedback on an Issues Paper released last month about the information it publishes in its System Operator role to help the electricity sector manage security of supply risks. This is the first step towards a full review of the data and assumptions used to monitor and assess security of supply outlined in the System Operator Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy (SOSFIP). Transpower Executive General Manager Operations Chantelle Bramley said the System Operator received a range of views from the electricity industry as well as major users of electricity, consent authorities and community groups about actions that can be taken for winter 2025. 'We've listened, and it's clear from feedback that there are complex issues to be addressed in the review to ensure any permanent change doesn't inadvertently have an adverse impact on security of supply,' Ms Bramley said. 'In the meantime, stakeholders have confirmed that the System Operator should retain discretion under the rules to trigger earlier access to additional water, known as contingent hydro storage, if it becomes necessary this winter. 'So, we've provided a great deal more clarity to participants around how access to contingent hydro storage could be triggered this winter in advance of the full review.' Contingent storage refers to water below a level set out in the relevant resource consents held by generators that, due to environmental and community requirements, can only be used to avoid shortages of electricity supply to consumers. Transpower will look at contingent storage again as it progresses through a complete review of the policy ahead of next winter. It will make recommendations to the Electricity Authority who will ultimately make the decision on any changes to the SOSFIP. The work will be completed in time for winter 2026. This would give industry and other key stakeholders, including resource consent authorities, more time to consider and provide feedback on the implications of any changes. Transpower focus on security of supply supported Ms Bramley said that it is clear from the wide range of submissions that delivering a secure supply of electricity now and into the future is the priority for all stakeholders during a complex energy transition. 'There are no easy answers here,' she said. 'New Zealand is leading the world in addressing these questions due to our extraordinarily high level of renewable electricity and the challenges brought about by the rapid decline in natural gas availability for back up generation. 'Making it easier to use contingent hydro storage to reduce gas and coal burn may feel like a no-brainer, but it isn't. It is our fuel of last resort. If we use our contingent hydro storage early and it doesn't rain, we can run out of energy later in winter. 'Our decision puts New Zealand's security of supply first, while giving hydro generators much greater clarity about the process for accessing contingent hydro for winter 2025.' New Zealand is reliant on an aging fleet of thermal generation units to provide back-up to our abundant renewable energy resources when the wind isn't blowing, sun isn't shining or we experience prolonged dry spells, as we have this year and last. Even if alternative fuel such as gas or coal are secured to run these thermal units, if one or more fails later in winter then we will need spare water in the system so that hydro generation output can be increased while the back-up power station is fixed. Ms Bramley also said that Transpower has to take into account future years as well as the immediate situation. 'If we use the contingent hydro stored water this year, we enter the next year relying on above average levels of rain to top up the lakes for winter,' she said. 'In all of these circumstances the risk of electricity shortage is very real, and this drives the potential for very high wholesale electricity prices, like we saw last year.' The full review of the policy will enable all stakeholders to consider how permanent changes can be made in support of secure and affordable electricity for Kiwis. 'In the meantime, Transpower will continue to work with the Electricity Authority and the wider industry to prepare for this winter,' Ms Bramley said. Market urged to secure fuel ahead of a potentially dry winter Transpower figures show that New Zealand's controlled hydro catchments have had the driest start to the year in 93 years of historic records. While recent inflows have helped arrest the decline, national controlled storage is sitting at just 82% of average for this time of year, which is in the bottom 10% of historic levels for this stage in April. At the same time, security of supply risk is elevated with gas supply constrained and some of New Zealand's thermal generators nearing end of life and therefore more prone to faults. Ms Bramley said Transpower continues to emphasise the need for the market to continue to co-ordinate early to increase the energy buffer heading into winter 2025. 'This is essential for diversifying risk away from reliance on hydro storage, and to insure against other factors such as unplanned outages to key generation assets,' she said. 'A system-wide response is underway, including continued focus on managing hydro storage levels and securing alternative fuel supplies such as coal, gas and diesel.' Submissions on the SOSFIP issues paper and Transpower's summary and response are on Transpower's website. Notes: Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy (SOSFIP) The SOSFIPis a system operation document approved by the Electricity Authority and incorporated by reference into the Electricity Industry Participation Code. The SOSFIP describes how Transpower as the System Operator prepares and publishes information to assist participants to manage security of supply risks. The Authority is responsible for over-arching market design under which the SOSFIP sits and must approve any changes to it consistent with its statutory objective. It is the role of Transpower as the System Operator to operate the SOSFIP, and the System Operator must comply with the SOSFIP that is current at the time. The SOSFIP addresses physical supply risks and does not consider price impacts. The current SOSFIP can be found on the Authority'swebsite. Transpower focus on security of supply The Government Policy Statement on Electricity released on 1 October 2024 supports the SOSFIP framework by making clear that Transpower has no authority in its system operator role to shield participants from commercial risk if they don't hedge against dry year risk. Transpower's reporting framework under SOSFIP is focused on security of electricity supply and it has no ability to set or control wholesale electricity prices. Prices are a matter for the market and reflect generators' commercial decisions, including how much fuel to stockpile, when to use it, and what to charge for it. Fuels include water in hydro lakes, thermal fuels like coal and gas, as well as the number and location of wind, solar and geothermal generators across the country.
