Latest news with #CharlesStArnaud
CBC
12-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta led nation in employment gains with 30,000 net job growth in June: Statistics Canada
Social Sharing Statistics Canada's newly-released J une 2025 Labour Force Survey indicates employment numbers grew by 83,000 in June, with Alberta leading that increase. The province saw a net gain of 30,000 new jobs, with 51,300 full-time jobs created and 21,300 part-time jobs lost. Those numbers represent a 1.2 per cent increase in Alberta's employment rate, with 2,594,100 people currently working. The province's unemployment rate went down 0.6 per cent, bringing it to 6.8 per cent, or 189,000 for June. 'Such a big rebound' Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud said parts of the report were "surprising," with the growth numbers exceeding his expectations. "We were not expecting such a big rebound in employment," he said. "83,000 nationally, 30,000 in Alberta, that's really big." Alberta's first-place employment increase was followed by Quebec's 23,000 net job gain and Ontario with 21,000. With 0.4 per cent growth across Canada, June saw the first nationwide employment increase since January. The 6.8 per cent unemployment rate sits just below the national rate of 6.9 per cent. Services-producing sector leads Alberta job growth June saw employment numbers rise in 10 of 16 industries, according to the data. Alberta's service sector had the highest overall employment growth in June, going up by 30,600 jobs, or 1.6 per cent from May 2025. Within that sector, the top-growing industries were finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (8,300 new jobs), health care and social assistance (6,700) and business, building and other support services (5,500). The goods-producing sector shrank by 0.1 per cent in June, with 600 jobs lost across the board since May. Agriculture employment went down by 6.2 per cent, with 2,600 jobs lost, while manufacturing (4.7 per cent, 6,800 new jobs) and natural resources (2.8 per cent, 4,000 new jobs) went up significantly. Job growth reflects population growth Kate Koplovich, director of strategy at Calgary Economic Development, said the numbers reflect the province's growth, but added she will be "waiting to see if this is a short-term gain, or if this really shows long-term resilience." In a statement, Minister of Jobs, Economy, Trade and Immigration Joseph Schow said the data is "welcome news" for the province. He said it's "proof that our plan to grow Alberta's economy is working as we remain strong, stable and resilient." He pointed to the drop in youth unemployment — 17.2 to 16.4 per cent — as a sign that "more young people who choose Alberta are finding meaningful jobs to start building their future."
Yahoo
12-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Alberta led nation in employment gains with 30,000 net job growth in June: Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada's newly-released June 2025 Labour Force Survey indicates employment numbers grew by 83,000 in June, with Alberta leading that increase. The province saw a net gain of 30,000 new jobs, with 51,300 full-time jobs created and 21,300 part-time jobs lost. Those numbers represent a 1.2 per cent increase in Alberta's employment rate, with 2,594,100 people currently working. The province's unemployment rate went down 0.6 per cent, bringing it to 6.8 per cent, or 189,000 for June. Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud said parts of the report were "surprising," with the growth numbers exceeding his expectations. "We were not expecting such a big rebound in employment," he said. "83,000 nationally, 30,000 in Alberta, that's really big." Alberta's first-place employment increase was followed by Quebec's 23,000 net job gain and Ontario with 21,000. With 0.4 per cent growth across Canada, June saw the first nationwide employment increase since January. The 6.8 per cent unemployment rate sits just below the national rate of 6.9 per cent. June saw employment numbers rise in 10 of 16 industries, according to the data. Alberta's service sector had the highest overall employment growth in June, going up by 30,600 jobs, or 1.6 per cent from May 2025. Within that sector, the top-growing industries were finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (8,300 new jobs), health care and social assistance (6,700) and business, building and other support services (5,500). The goods-producing sector shrank by 0.1 per cent in June, with 600 jobs lost across the board since May. Agriculture employment went down by 6.2 per cent, with 2,600 jobs lost, while manufacturing (4.7 per cent, 6,800 new jobs) and natural resources (2.8 per cent, 4,000 new jobs) went up significantly. Kate Koplovich, director of strategy at Calgary Economic Development, said the numbers reflect the province's growth, but added she will be "waiting to see if this is a short-term gain, or if this really shows long-term resilience." In a statement, Minister of Jobs, Economy, Trade and Immigration Joseph Schow said the data is "welcome news" for the province. He said it's "proof that our plan to grow Alberta's economy is working as we remain strong, stable and resilient." He pointed to the drop in youth unemployment — 17.2 to 16.4 per cent — as a sign that "more young people who choose Alberta are finding meaningful jobs to start building their future."
CBC
04-07-2025
- Business
- CBC
Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation
The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation. The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada. "Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year. Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. "There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province. "Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said. Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. "There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said. Conservative estimates The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel. "There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said. Rath said the plan uses "extremely conservative estimates" to make those assumptions, resulting in numbers reflecting the least positive outcome. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young notes that the plan does take into account the fluctuation in oil prices. "They acknowledge that demand for oil will peak relatively soon and then decline," she said, demonstrating they are thinking about potential swings in the economy. Still, Rath said they believe there is no sign demand for oil and gas will shift. "It's kind of like Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," he said, referencing comments the former U.S. vice president made several years ago about climate change. "Every five years somebody says that the end of the earth is coming and nobody has yet to come up with an economic alternative to oil and gas." Young said the plan still lacks "robust" analysis from economists — and it leaves several questions about the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered. "Have they taken into account the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into account the many people who would pack their bags and leave the province and not want to be part of Alberta?" Pension payments and currency concerns Another area of uncertainty is the plan to shift to an Alberta Pension Plan — like the one the United Conservative government has proposed. Using data from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the plan says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its conservative estimates, the plan assumes the province would receive $167 billion in 2026. Rath also said an independent Alberta would reduce pension payments but double pension payouts. But St-Arnaud said this is based on the assumption that Albertans are generally richer and can contribute more, but also that they are younger and will use less of the money. "But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," he said. "Yes, Alberta is still younger than the rest of Canada, but that gap is narrowing quite rapidly." He also said one key mistake the plan makes in its revenue estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with overall fiscal revenue. "That amount of revenues shouldn't be included in fiscal revenues because that's the way pension funds work, and that's the way the CPP works at a federal level," he said. "It's an independent entity." Rath said Alberta would also adopt the U.S. dollar, before eventually shifting to an Alberta-specific currency. Young said the potential effect this could have is not clear. "What would it mean to adopt the American dollar all of a sudden, right? What would that do to people's personal finances?" she said. Opposition petition 'a bad joke' At the same press conference Thursday, Rath addressed questions about a competing petition plan that would call for Alberta to stay in Canada. "It's a bad joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously." The Forever Canada petition, led by former Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its own referendum question about staying in Alberta. Rath said this will not disrupt his group's plans to submit a question on separation because theirs is a constitutional challenge, not a policy one.
Yahoo
28-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Unemployment, inflation and travel amid ongoing tariff uncertainty: FP video
This week FP Video takes a close look at where Canada's unemployment rate, inflation numbers and summer travel are headed amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, talks about how Canada's economy is set to soften and see the jobless rate climb. Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, talks about May inflation numbers. Chris Lynes, managing director at Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, talks with Financial Post's Larysa Harapyn about the state of leisure travel in Canada amidst uncertainty around tariffs. Where the Canadian dollar and oil prices are headed: FP video Hurdles, slumps and slowdowns: FP Video looks at the Canadian economy Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Globe and Mail
10-06-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Why is Alberta so grumpy? The truth is the West has been struggling badly
Charles St-Arnaud is chief economist at Alberta Central. The following is adapted from a recent report by the financial institution. Western alienation has a long history in Alberta, from the lack of bank lending to the province in the 1930s, to the National Energy Program in 1980, to what is currently viewed as an overrestrictive regulatory framework that stymies the oil and gas industry. With this as a background, the election of a fourth consecutive Liberal government has led to the most recent surge of discontent in Alberta and fanned the flames of separatism to the point where a referendum on the subject is becoming highly likely. The reaction and dismay in other parts of Canada to that rising discontent is a sign that the rest of Canada is oblivious to Alberta's situation. The main reason behind the growing discontent? As U.S. Democratic strategist James Carville described the central issue of the 1992 presidential campaign: 'It's the economy, stupid.' This is what makes the situation in Alberta more comparable to the campaign for Brexit than to the sovereignty movement in Quebec. And, despite the Alberta government's assertion that the province is doing great economically, it is not; in fact, it has been struggling for the past decade. Andrew Coyne: We wasted 60 years indulging secessionist fantasies in Quebec. Must we make the same mistake in Alberta? Opinion: The spectre of Alberta separatism might actually be good for Canada's economy Many look at Alberta with envy, as it is the wealthiest province, boasting a GDP-per-capita of approximately $72,600 in 2024, roughly 30 per cent higher than the national average. However, what is less well known is how Alberta has experienced a significant decline in its standard of living and household purchasing power as it adapts to the 2014 oil bust. Following the 2014 crash, Alberta's economic activity declined by about 7 per cent, and it took eight years to fully recover. To put this into perspective, this represents a similar economic downturn to the one experienced by Spain, Portugal, and Italy during the global financial crisis. As a result, Alberta's GDP per capita in 2024 was only marginally above its level in 2004. In other words, the province's living standard have not improved in two decades. This situation has significant implications for households in the province. While Albertans' real disposable income per person is still higher than the national average by about 5 per cent, it has declined by about 13 per cent since 2014. This represents a significant reduction in the average Albertan's purchasing power, with the province's performance trailing that of B.C., Ontario, and Quebec, which gained 9 per cent, 5 per cent, and 7.5 per cent, respectively, over the same period. Some would argue that the decline in purchasing power is only a result of a drop in incomes over the past decade for workers in the oil patch, but this is not the case. However, looking at median wages, adjusted for inflation, purchasing power has fallen for workers in most industries since 2014, led by the education, health care, construction, and arts and entertainment sectors; oil and gas workers have seen an increase in their purchasing power over the period. In addition, since the mid-2010s, younger and older cohorts of workers, especially men, are less likely to be employed now than they were 10 years ago; the employment rate for both groups has dropped by about 10 percentage points. The general feeling that is fuelling discontent in the province is that no economic progress has been made over the past decade, and that Albertans are falling behind, whether individually through lower purchasing power and employment potential, or collectively, because of a lack of growth in GDP per capita and prolonged recovery. This situation is similar to what has been observed south of the border, where manufacturing workers feel that the system has left them behind, fuelling the populist movement. A lack of understanding of the situation only fuels more resentment; remember presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's comments regarding the 'deplorables' during the 2016 U.S. elections. These economic developments are mostly the direct impact of the oil bust of 2014 and a global reduction in investment by oil and gas companies over the past decade. However, the federal government is not without blame. Many regulations introduced in recent years, whether it's the 'emission cap' or the 'clean electricity grid,' have been badly designed and often affect Alberta disproportionately. The inherent flaws in these regulations raise questions about whether the federal government is intentionally trying to hurt Alberta. With all this in mind, the rest of the country should, to quote fictional TV soccer coach Ted Lasso, 'be curious, not judgmental.' Most Albertans, having fallen behind over the past decade, do not want to separate, but they want their concerns to be known, acknowledged, and heard by the rest of the country. Some understanding and empathy could go a long way to bridge the gap.
