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Political hiatus looms over economy
Political hiatus looms over economy

Bangkok Post

time17 hours ago

  • Business
  • Bangkok Post

Political hiatus looms over economy

The Constitutional Court is expected to take 1-3 months to hand down the final verdict on the fate of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra after the court suspended her from the post over a leaked recording of a phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Most analysts anticipated a suspension during the investigation into a Senate petition accusing the premier of breaching ethical standards in violation of the constitution. "We expect the court to take 1-3 months, handing down a verdict possibly by September," said Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at China-based CGS International Securities Group. If she is found guilty, she is likely to be banned from politics for 10 years. However, the parliament can still vote in a new prime minister from the available candidates, including Chaikasem Nitisiri from the ruling Pheu Thai Party, whom CGS believes could be the new premier, he said. The political overhang will continue to pressure the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index, which has fallen by 23% this year, making it the worst performing market in the world year-to-date. "We believe investors have priced in various concerns, including the US's reciprocal tariffs, domestic political turmoil and a weak domestic economy," said Mr Kasem. "Protesters plan to rally again, but have yet to fix a date. We believe street rallies will once again disrupt businesses as consumers stay home for fear of violence, which could open the door for the military to intervene." Given domestic political uncertainties, he said Thailand may not have much bargaining power with the US regarding planned import tariffs of 36%. "The finance minister expects the tariff to be reduced to 10%, which we believe is too optimistic," said Mr Kasem. Nuttawut Wongyaowarak, head of research at Globlex Securities, said investors took heart from Tuesday's court ruling as it could prevent political protests from intensifying. "If the court did not accept the petition, protests against the prime minister were likely to escalate. Investors and the market do not like political turbulence," he said. RISING ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS Amonthep Chawla, chief economist at CIMB Thai Bank, said following the premier's suspension, political uncertainty weighs on Thailand's economic outlook. Both domestic and foreign investors are becoming increasingly hesitant, with many delaying or reconsidering investment decisions. This caution is especially pronounced in sectors reliant on government spending, such as construction. "The private sector is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, particularly for projects tied to public budgets," he said. However, if the government can maintain political stability and ensure continuity in policy direction, the erosion of investor confidence could be contained, said Mr Amonthep, though he warned of tensions between the coalition parties. "Should coalition parties face pressure to reassess their alignment or withdraw support, the situation could escalate towards a House dissolution," he said. Mr Amonthep said disbursement of the current fiscal budget and planned stimulus budget is unlikely to be disrupted or delayed, as the government retains full authority and is not operating in a caretaker capacity. Still, a political collapse and House dissolution could delay the approval process for the fiscal 2026 budget, posing a risk to the economy from the fourth quarter of this year through the second quarter of next year, he said. TRADE TALK UNAFFECTED Sompop Manarungsan, president of Panyapiwat Institute of Management and an economic analyst, said he believes the suspension order is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Thai delegation to the US for tariff negotiations. He said the US is unlikely to focus on individual figures, but rather the entire Thai political system and whether it is mature and established. If Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai were to step in as acting prime minister, Mr Sompop said it would likely make the transition period smoother, particularly given the escalating domestic tensions such as the protests that occurred last Saturday. However, if the government is unable to carry on, then parliament should be dissolved and a new election held in order to preserve the system, he said. "I believe US officials understand Thailand's political model and that this situation has not yet reached a dead end," said Mr Sompop. "The suspension is unlikely to pose a limitation on the Thai delegation in tariff negotiations." CONFIDENCE SHAKEN Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the premier's suspension would disrupt operations considerably and likely affect decision-making on important issues, making economic outlook more challenging. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said the court ruling reflects the instability of Thai politics, which can weaken investor sentiment. He said the administration should continue with an acting prime minister and new cabinet in place. "We should follow the situation over the next few months after the opening session of parliament on July 3," said Mr Thienprasit. Sanga Ruangwattanakul, president of the Khao San Road Business Association, said an acting premier and cabinet led by the Pheu Thai Party should continue working to solve the economic and tourism crises. Stimulus measures should be implemented as planned, as tourism operators must cope with tepid purchasing power and sluggish foreign arrivals, he said. During the low season this year, Khao San Road businesses anticipate 30% fewer tourists year-on-year, said Mr Sanga. He said it is difficult to predict whether protests against Ms Paetongtarn will be prolonged, as the acting cabinet is still led by her political party. Nuttanai Anuntarumporn, chief executive of Interlink Telecom Plc, said government fiscal 2026 disbursement could slow in terms of new project launches, as a new cabinet may not maintain current policies. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and domestic political stability is likely to delay both consumer and business spending, he said. For Interlink Telecom, its projects under independent agencies, such as the 5.4-billion-baht rural internet rollout, remain unaffected. TOO MUCH POLITICS With Ms Paetongtarn's political future hanging by a thread, ministers may not address all their full portfolio as they focus on political issues, including how to gain trust from people in the next election, said Tanit Sorat, vice-chairman of the Employers' Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry. Some ministers may be considering how to garner votes in the next general election if the court's verdict caves in the government, he said. "My question is who will fully work under these conditions?" said Mr Tanit. The political turbulence comes as Thailand needs a capable leader and a strong team of ministers to survive economic challenges that threaten to deal a blow to GDP growth this year, he said. The US's final reciprocal tariff rate on Thai imports is unknown, and a high rate would weaken Thai manufacturers' and exporters' competitiveness in the global market, said Mr Tanit. Meanwhile, the Thai-Cambodian territorial conflict is also straining the economy, and leaders are needed to address the situation, he said. The suspension of Ms Paetongtarn only added to the lack of trust in the prime minister, said Mr Tanit. "When businesspeople step away from their roles, they are ordinary individuals sharing the same feelings as other people," he said. CONSISTENT ENERGY POLICY Key energy development plans should remain intact even if there is a new premier, said Praipol Koomsup, an economist at Thammasat University who was a committee member under former energy minister Narongchai Akrasanee. One state project he pushed for continuity on is a direct power purchase agreement (PPA) that allows companies to buy renewable power directly from producers. Peer-to-peer renewable power trade was prohibited in Thailand, but the National Energy Policy Council approved a pilot project on direct PPA last year to facilitate sales of clean power to data centre projects.

Overhang expected from suspension
Overhang expected from suspension

Bangkok Post

timea day ago

  • Business
  • Bangkok Post

Overhang expected from suspension

The Constitutional Court is expected to take 1-3 months to hand down the final verdict on the fate of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra after the court suspended her from the post over a leaked recording of a phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. Most analysts anticipated a suspension during the investigation into a Senate petition accusing the premier of breaching ethical standards in violation of the constitution. "We expect the court to take 1-3 months, handing down a verdict possibly by September," said Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at China-based CGS International Securities Group. If she is found guilty, she is likely to be banned from politics for 10 years. However, the parliament can still vote in a new prime minister from the available candidates, including Chaikasem Nitisiri from the ruling Pheu Thai Party, whom CGS believes could be the new premier, he said. The political overhang will continue to pressure the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index, which has fallen by 23% this year, making it the worst performing market in the world year-to-date. "We believe investors have priced in various concerns, including the US's reciprocal tariffs, domestic political turmoil and a weak domestic economy," said Mr Kasem. "Protesters plan to rally again, but have yet to fix a date. We believe street rallies will once again disrupt businesses as consumers stay home for fear of violence, which could open the door for the military to intervene." Given domestic political uncertainties, he said Thailand may not have much bargaining power with the US regarding planned import tariffs of 36%. "The finance minister expects the tariff to be reduced to 10%, which we believe is too optimistic," said Mr Kasem. Nuttawut Wongyaowarak, head of research at Globlex Securities, said investors took heart from Tuesday's court ruling as it could prevent political protests from intensifying. "If the court did not accept the petition, protests against the prime minister were likely to escalate. Investors and the market do not like political turbulence," he said. Amonthep Chawla, chief economist at CIMB Thai Bank, said following the premier's suspension, political uncertainty weighs on Thailand's economic outlook. Both domestic and foreign investors are becoming increasingly hesitant, with many delaying or reconsidering investment decisions. This caution is especially pronounced in sectors reliant on government spending, such as construction. "The private sector is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach, particularly for projects tied to public budgets," he said. However, if the government can maintain political stability and ensure continuity in policy direction, the erosion of investor confidence could be contained, said Mr Amonthep, though he warned of tensions between the coalition parties. "Should coalition parties face pressure to reassess their alignment or withdraw support, the situation could escalate towards a House dissolution," he said. Mr Amonthep said disbursement of the current fiscal budget and planned stimulus budget is unlikely to be disrupted or delayed, as the government retains full authority and is not operating in a caretaker capacity. Still, a political collapse and House dissolution could delay the approval process for the fiscal 2026 budget, posing a risk to the economy from the fourth quarter of this year through the second quarter of next year, he said. TRADE TALK UNAFFECTED Sompop Manarungsan, president of Panyapiwat Institute of Management and an economic analyst, said he believes the suspension order is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Thai delegation to the US for tariff negotiations. He said the US is unlikely to focus on individual figures, but rather the entire Thai political system and whether it is mature and established. If Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai were to step in as acting prime minister, Mr Sompop said it would likely make the transition period smoother, particularly given the escalating domestic tensions such as the protests that occurred last Saturday. However, if the government is unable to carry on, then parliament should be dissolved and a new election held in order to preserve the system, he said. "I believe US officials understand Thailand's political model and that this situation has not yet reached a dead end," said Mr Sompop. "The suspension is unlikely to pose a limitation on the Thai delegation in tariff negotiations." CONFIDENCE SHAKEN Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said the premier's suspension would disrupt operations considerably and likely affect decision-making on important issues, making economic outlook more challenging. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, said the court ruling reflects the instability of Thai politics, which can weaken investor sentiment. He said the administration should continue with an acting prime minister and new cabinet in place. "We should follow the situation over the next few months after the opening session of parliament on July 3," said Mr Thienprasit. Sanga Ruangwattanakul, president of the Khao San Road Business Association, said an acting premier and cabinet led by the Pheu Thai Party should continue working to solve the economic and tourism crises. Stimulus measures should be implemented as planned, as tourism operators must cope with tepid purchasing power and sluggish foreign arrivals, he said. During the low season this year, Khao San Road businesses anticipate 30% fewer tourists year-on-year, said Mr Sanga. He said it is difficult to predict whether protests against Ms Paetongtarn will be prolonged, as the acting cabinet is still led by her political party. Nuttanai Anuntarumporn, chief executive of Interlink Telecom Plc, said government fiscal 2026 disbursement could slow in terms of new project launches, as a new cabinet may not maintain current policies. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and domestic political stability is likely to delay both consumer and business spending, he said. For Interlink Telecom, its projects under independent agencies, such as the 5.4-billion-baht rural internet rollout, remain unaffected. TOO MUCH POLITICS With Ms Paetongtarn's political future hanging by a thread, ministers may not address all their full portfolio as they focus on political issues, including how to gain trust from people in the next election, said Tanit Sorat, vice-chairman of the Employers' Confederation of Thai Trade and Industry. Some ministers may be considering how to garner votes in the next general election if the court's verdict caves in the government, he said. "My question is who will fully work under these conditions?" said Mr Tanit. The political turbulence comes as Thailand needs a capable leader and a strong team of ministers to survive economic challenges that threaten to deal a blow to GDP growth this year, he said. The US's final reciprocal tariff rate on Thai imports is unknown, and a high rate would weaken Thai manufacturers' and exporters' competitiveness in the global market, said Mr Tanit. Meanwhile, the Thai-Cambodian territorial conflict is also straining the economy, and leaders are needed to address the situation, he said. The suspension of Ms Paetongtarn only added to the lack of trust in the prime minister, said Mr Tanit. "When businesspeople step away from their roles, they are ordinary individuals sharing the same feelings as other people," he said. CONSISTENT ENERGY POLICY Key energy development plans should remain intact even if there is a new premier, said Praipol Koomsup, an economist at Thammasat University who was a committee member under former energy minister Narongchai Akrasanee. One state project he pushed for continuity on is a direct power purchase agreement (PPA) that allows companies to buy renewable power directly from producers. Peer-to-peer renewable power trade was prohibited in Thailand, but the National Energy Policy Council approved a pilot project on direct PPA last year to facilitate sales of clean power to data centre projects.

Solution Group To Distribute Cervical Cancer Vaccine In Malaysia
Solution Group To Distribute Cervical Cancer Vaccine In Malaysia

BusinessToday

timea day ago

  • Business
  • BusinessToday

Solution Group To Distribute Cervical Cancer Vaccine In Malaysia

Solution Group Berhad announced through an exclusive international distribution agreement with China-based Xiamen Innovax Biotech Co., Ltd. for the supply of INNOVAX's recombinant Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Bivalent Vaccine, Cecolin. This collaboration marks a strategic move for SGB into the biologics and vaccine distribution sector, complementing its existing healthcare initiatives. INNOVAX is a prominent biotechnology company specialising in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of innovative vaccines. Headquartered in Xiamen, China, INNOVAX is known for its unique Escherichia coli -based recombinant vaccine system. This platform was instrumental in the development of the world's first Hepatitis E Vaccine, Hecolin®, launched in China in 2012, and its Cervical Cancer Vaccine, Cecolin (HPV16&18 bivalent), approved in 2019. Under the terms of the exclusive distribution agreement, SOLBIO is granted the rights to register, import, commercialise, and distribute Cecolin in Malaysia. Key highlights of the agreement include minimum order quantity commitments for three years after product registration, with SOLBIO also responsible for regulatory registration, import licensing, and pharmacovigilance. Both companies will jointly work on ensuring cold chain logistics compliance, market development, and product education. The agreement commenced on July 1, 2025, and has an initial term of three years, with potential for renewal. Cecolin, developed using Escherichia coli expression technology, is designed for the prevention of cervical cancer. The vaccine has notably received prequalification from the World Health Organization (WHO), signifying its adherence to global standards of quality, safety, and efficacy. Related

Solution Group inks exclusive deal to distribute HPV vaccine Cecolin in Malaysia
Solution Group inks exclusive deal to distribute HPV vaccine Cecolin in Malaysia

Malaysian Reserve

timea day ago

  • Health
  • Malaysian Reserve

Solution Group inks exclusive deal to distribute HPV vaccine Cecolin in Malaysia

SOLUTION Group Bhd (SGB), through its wholly-owned subsidiary Solution Biologics Sdn Bhd (SOLBIO), has signed an exclusive distribution agreement with China-based Xiamen Innovax Biotech Co Ltd (INNOVAX) to register, commercialise and distribute the Cecolin Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in Malaysia. Under the agreement, SOLBIO will hold exclusive rights to register, import, promote and market Cecolin, a recombinant HPV bivalent vaccine targeting HPV types 16 and 18 – the primary causes of cervical cancer – for women aged 9 to 45 years. The vaccine, produced using Escherichia coli expression technology, has a 36-month shelf life and meets World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification standards. 'This partnership with INNOVAX is a major step forward for SOLBIO in expanding our vaccine portfolio and supporting public health efforts in Malaysia,' said SGB's group CEO Datuk Mohd Nazlee Kamal. 'Cecolin provides a cost-effective and globally recognized solution to HPV prevention, and we are proud to make it accessible to our communities,' he added. 'We believe this partnership will drive greater vaccine accessibility and cervical cancer prevention in the region,' INNOVAX GM Huirong Pan said. The agreement follows a series of discussions between both parties aimed at strengthening healthcare outcomes through access to high-quality, affordable vaccines. — TMR

Samsung just sabotaged the Galaxy Z Fold 7. What now?
Samsung just sabotaged the Galaxy Z Fold 7. What now?

Phone Arena

timea day ago

  • Phone Arena

Samsung just sabotaged the Galaxy Z Fold 7. What now?

We are just days away from the Galaxy Z Fold 7's official announcement on July 9, but the upcoming foldable phone's fate has already been sealed for me: it's a disaster in the making. I'm going to cut to the chase here and not waste any more time with world building. It's the purported battery size that concerns and infuriates me at the same time. The rumor mill is telling us Samsung is not eyeing a battery increase for its ultra-thin new foldable phone , meaning it will mirror the Galaxy Z Fold 6 and come with a 4,400 mAh battery, or worse, even a smaller one. And looking at the fuller picture, many might jump in to defend Samsung with the notion that, yes, the Galaxy Z Fold 7 is significantly slimmer than any of the company's prior foldables, so there was just no physical space left for a larger battery, you see. That would have been accurate and understandable years ago, when Li-ion batteries were more constrained by space. However, it's mid-2025, and this problem has already been solved, seemingly by everyone but Samsung. There's an easy solution to the battery issue on foldable phones that almost all current devices have already solved, and it's called silicon-carbon batteries. These are denser than the standard lithium-ion batteries and conserve more energy in the same-sized battery cell, allowing phone vendors to do crazy things like putting a 5,600 mAh battery inside an ultraslim 8.93 mm foldable phone . Those are the exact specs behind Oppo's exceptional Find N5 foldable, which feels like a much more complete foldable flagship. The Vivo X Fold 3 Pro I've been using for the past few months? A bit thicker at 11.2 mm, but still packing a large 5,700 mAh battery, and that's a phone that's more than a year old. Actually, come to think of it, most of Samsung's rivals are already actively using silicon-carbon batteries on both foldables and traditional flagship phones, delivering wonderful battery endurance in bodies that are often slimmer than their Samsung counterparts. But what could be the real reason Samsung simply doesn't want to give people what they want and match the exploits of all China-based foldable phone makers out there? At this point, it appears that the real reason could be the higher costs of silicon-carbon batteries and Samsung's unwillingness to soak them up or past them over to consumers. The South Korea-based giant is either unwilling to pay the licensing fees for the patented tech, and that is hurting the appeal of its otherwise decent phones. We've been stuck with 5,000 mAh batteries on the flagship Galaxy S Ultra lineup for half a decade already, and the competition has not only caught up, but is already lapping Samsung. Even Apple, which is usually so averse to hardware innovation, is dangerously close to topping Samsung's batteries not only in overall endurance, but in terms of capacity, too. Could Samsung be betting on a home-grown solution? The company unveiled a solid-state battery back in 2024, which aims to give us super-stable batteries that are way less prone to "accidents", but they only max out at 200Wh/l, which isn't very inspiring when you compare a lithium-ion battery's range between 250 and 700 Wh/l. This means Samsung's solid-state batteries are a long way from being actual alternatives to conventional lithium-ion or silicon-carbon batteries; SSBs are also seemingly way, way more expensive at the moment, so pretty far away from mass production and the prime time. Another obvious reason for Samsung's apparent unwillingness to give us good batteries in phones could be the now ancient Galaxy Note 7. Back in 2016, an ill-fated manufacturing defect with the batteries of the S Pen phone caused many units to overheat and catch on fire, and the reason for that was the specific curved shape of the device, which required an odd-shaped battery cell. This led to the unfortunate discontinuation of the Galaxy Note 7. Samsung has apologized one too many times about this mishap over the years, and we've already accepted the apology. It even introduced an industry-leading 8-point battery safe check back in the day, which is still relevant to this day. However, it's 2025 now, and it's time for the company to move on and once again start experimenting with batteries. Safely, of course. But let's get back to the Galaxy Z Fold 7 , a device that is set to do so many things right and yet skimp on one of the more crucial ones yet again, potentially leaving us with a foldable phone very close to greatness, but not quite there just yet. Samsung kept an ear close to the ground and will finally give us an actually good and thin design, get rid of the useless inner selfie camera, and will finally employ an actually useful cover screen. Pair that with the flagship-grade Snapdragon 8 Elite chip and the decent One UI interface, and you get a strong rival for the title of "best foldable in the US". We'll see how the Pixel 10 Pro Fold will fare. However, on the global stage, there are poised to be much better options from a hardware perspective. Devices like the Oppo Find N5, Honor Magic V5, and the Vivo X Fold 5 are already quickly stepping up to eat Samsung's lunch. Secure your connection now at a bargain price! We may earn a commission if you make a purchase Check Out The Offer

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