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The Advertiser
4 days ago
- Business
- The Advertiser
What Albanese's visit reveals about China relations in a turbulent world
The Albanese government has faced an increasingly uncertain world since its re-election in May. US President Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australia-US alliance, raising fresh questions about Canberra's long-term regional strategy. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approach to foreign policy is reflecting a careful recalibration - one that seeks to balance security partnerships with the pursuit of economic opportunities, especially with Australia's largest trading partner, China. Albanese has wrapped up a six-day visit to China which was characterised by a highly pragmatic approach to dealing with the problems and irritants in the bilateral relationship. Albanese's visit to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu - cities emblematic of Australia's political, economic and cultural connections with China - was more than symbolic. It was a high-profile diplomatic venture, with Albanese meeting both the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. But it was more than a leaders' summit. A large team of key business leaders in banking, manufacturing, mining and education were on the trip to meet their Chinese counterparts and seek more cooperation. Economic engagement dominated the visit. As Albanese highlighted before his trip, "my priority is jobs". Broader partnerships spanning multiple sectors, including healthcare, education and green energy, were canvassed. The two nations also explored closer cooperation on energy transition and climate change. Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has even floated a collaboration on artificial intelligence. However, the suggestion has been met with caution in Canberra due to ongoing concerns around national security and data governance. Beyond trade and investment, the visit also marked an effort to rebuild people-to-people exchanges. Since last year, Australian citizens have been able to visit China for up to 30 days without a visa. In turn, Australia will welcome more Chinese visitors under a new Memorandum of Understanding promoting Australia as a premier tourist destination for Chinese travellers. Albanese's meetings with Xi Jinping and Li Qiang also yielded concrete results. The official joint statement emphasised economic cooperation, particularly in climate-related areas such as steel decarbonisation, dryland farming and the green economy. These outcomes align with the Albanese government's guiding principle: cooperate where we can. The deeper economic cooperation has been noted in China, where there is an expectation collaboration will continue to accelerate on the back of improved relations. As James Laurenceson of the Australia-China Relations Institute recently noted, a stronger economic partnership will help foster more resilient ties across the board. Other analysts also see increased mutual benefits in the bilateral relationship. China-watcher James Curran suggests the visit may signal a maturing, more independent Australian foreign policy. The primary role of Australian statecraft is to do everything we possibly can to avoid a conflict. To avoid ever getting close to a decision about following the Americans into a war of that kind. This was best illustrated by Albanese's refusal to provide Washington with a wide-ranging and largely open-ended commitment to support the US in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Indeed, as Curran observes, Albanese has tried to steer the relationship away from disagreement and towards pragmatic engagement. Following his meeting with Xi, Albanese was repeatedly asked by Australian journalists if he raised sensitive issues such as Taiwan, China's military build-up and the South China Sea. While he confirmed these topics were addressed, he emphasised a preference for peaceful engagement: [...] we want peace and security in the region. That is in the interest of both Australia and in the interest of China. Unsurprisingly, the joint statement made no reference to these issues, reflecting a mutual decision to sidestep confrontation in favour of stabilising the relationship. This diplomatic posture toward China would appear to be a defining feature of the Albanese government's second term: strengthening cooperation while quietly managing differences. Rather than highlighting points of contention, the government is opting to avoid open disagreement where possible. Overt disputes risk destabilising bilateral ties. If issues are raised publicly, it is unlikely to shift entrenched positions on either side. This explains why the ownership of the Port of Darwin, for example, was not mentioned during Albanese's meeting with Xi. Critics, however, argue this risks projecting weakness towards China. Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, warns the government is staying silent in the face of ongoing Chinese coercion: Australia is only complying with China's desires when the government says nothing and leaves the public to trust that the threats posed by China are all being dealt with in the classified realm. This is not viable policy. Australia's sovereignty must not be contingent on Beijing's preferences. Even within China, analysts are cautious about Albanese's approach. As one Chinese scholar told us, "a stable relationship does not necessarily mean a friendly one". In fact, while the Chinese media has stressed Australia and China's shared commitment to regional stability, this was barely mentioned in the official joint statement. Still, there is recognition on both sides that pragmatism rather than ideological grandstanding is the more sustainable path forward. In sum, Albanese's visit does not mark a dramatic reset or bold new direction in Australia-China relations. Rather, it signals a shift toward greater realism. In an increasingly complex and multipolar world, diplomacy grounded in mutual interests, rather than ideology, is not just practical, but may be a growing trend across the globe. The Albanese government has faced an increasingly uncertain world since its re-election in May. US President Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australia-US alliance, raising fresh questions about Canberra's long-term regional strategy. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approach to foreign policy is reflecting a careful recalibration - one that seeks to balance security partnerships with the pursuit of economic opportunities, especially with Australia's largest trading partner, China. Albanese has wrapped up a six-day visit to China which was characterised by a highly pragmatic approach to dealing with the problems and irritants in the bilateral relationship. Albanese's visit to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu - cities emblematic of Australia's political, economic and cultural connections with China - was more than symbolic. It was a high-profile diplomatic venture, with Albanese meeting both the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. But it was more than a leaders' summit. A large team of key business leaders in banking, manufacturing, mining and education were on the trip to meet their Chinese counterparts and seek more cooperation. Economic engagement dominated the visit. As Albanese highlighted before his trip, "my priority is jobs". Broader partnerships spanning multiple sectors, including healthcare, education and green energy, were canvassed. The two nations also explored closer cooperation on energy transition and climate change. Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has even floated a collaboration on artificial intelligence. However, the suggestion has been met with caution in Canberra due to ongoing concerns around national security and data governance. Beyond trade and investment, the visit also marked an effort to rebuild people-to-people exchanges. Since last year, Australian citizens have been able to visit China for up to 30 days without a visa. In turn, Australia will welcome more Chinese visitors under a new Memorandum of Understanding promoting Australia as a premier tourist destination for Chinese travellers. Albanese's meetings with Xi Jinping and Li Qiang also yielded concrete results. The official joint statement emphasised economic cooperation, particularly in climate-related areas such as steel decarbonisation, dryland farming and the green economy. These outcomes align with the Albanese government's guiding principle: cooperate where we can. The deeper economic cooperation has been noted in China, where there is an expectation collaboration will continue to accelerate on the back of improved relations. As James Laurenceson of the Australia-China Relations Institute recently noted, a stronger economic partnership will help foster more resilient ties across the board. Other analysts also see increased mutual benefits in the bilateral relationship. China-watcher James Curran suggests the visit may signal a maturing, more independent Australian foreign policy. The primary role of Australian statecraft is to do everything we possibly can to avoid a conflict. To avoid ever getting close to a decision about following the Americans into a war of that kind. This was best illustrated by Albanese's refusal to provide Washington with a wide-ranging and largely open-ended commitment to support the US in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Indeed, as Curran observes, Albanese has tried to steer the relationship away from disagreement and towards pragmatic engagement. Following his meeting with Xi, Albanese was repeatedly asked by Australian journalists if he raised sensitive issues such as Taiwan, China's military build-up and the South China Sea. While he confirmed these topics were addressed, he emphasised a preference for peaceful engagement: [...] we want peace and security in the region. That is in the interest of both Australia and in the interest of China. Unsurprisingly, the joint statement made no reference to these issues, reflecting a mutual decision to sidestep confrontation in favour of stabilising the relationship. This diplomatic posture toward China would appear to be a defining feature of the Albanese government's second term: strengthening cooperation while quietly managing differences. Rather than highlighting points of contention, the government is opting to avoid open disagreement where possible. Overt disputes risk destabilising bilateral ties. If issues are raised publicly, it is unlikely to shift entrenched positions on either side. This explains why the ownership of the Port of Darwin, for example, was not mentioned during Albanese's meeting with Xi. Critics, however, argue this risks projecting weakness towards China. Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, warns the government is staying silent in the face of ongoing Chinese coercion: Australia is only complying with China's desires when the government says nothing and leaves the public to trust that the threats posed by China are all being dealt with in the classified realm. This is not viable policy. Australia's sovereignty must not be contingent on Beijing's preferences. Even within China, analysts are cautious about Albanese's approach. As one Chinese scholar told us, "a stable relationship does not necessarily mean a friendly one". In fact, while the Chinese media has stressed Australia and China's shared commitment to regional stability, this was barely mentioned in the official joint statement. Still, there is recognition on both sides that pragmatism rather than ideological grandstanding is the more sustainable path forward. In sum, Albanese's visit does not mark a dramatic reset or bold new direction in Australia-China relations. Rather, it signals a shift toward greater realism. In an increasingly complex and multipolar world, diplomacy grounded in mutual interests, rather than ideology, is not just practical, but may be a growing trend across the globe. The Albanese government has faced an increasingly uncertain world since its re-election in May. US President Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australia-US alliance, raising fresh questions about Canberra's long-term regional strategy. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approach to foreign policy is reflecting a careful recalibration - one that seeks to balance security partnerships with the pursuit of economic opportunities, especially with Australia's largest trading partner, China. Albanese has wrapped up a six-day visit to China which was characterised by a highly pragmatic approach to dealing with the problems and irritants in the bilateral relationship. Albanese's visit to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu - cities emblematic of Australia's political, economic and cultural connections with China - was more than symbolic. It was a high-profile diplomatic venture, with Albanese meeting both the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. But it was more than a leaders' summit. A large team of key business leaders in banking, manufacturing, mining and education were on the trip to meet their Chinese counterparts and seek more cooperation. Economic engagement dominated the visit. As Albanese highlighted before his trip, "my priority is jobs". Broader partnerships spanning multiple sectors, including healthcare, education and green energy, were canvassed. The two nations also explored closer cooperation on energy transition and climate change. Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has even floated a collaboration on artificial intelligence. However, the suggestion has been met with caution in Canberra due to ongoing concerns around national security and data governance. Beyond trade and investment, the visit also marked an effort to rebuild people-to-people exchanges. Since last year, Australian citizens have been able to visit China for up to 30 days without a visa. In turn, Australia will welcome more Chinese visitors under a new Memorandum of Understanding promoting Australia as a premier tourist destination for Chinese travellers. Albanese's meetings with Xi Jinping and Li Qiang also yielded concrete results. The official joint statement emphasised economic cooperation, particularly in climate-related areas such as steel decarbonisation, dryland farming and the green economy. These outcomes align with the Albanese government's guiding principle: cooperate where we can. The deeper economic cooperation has been noted in China, where there is an expectation collaboration will continue to accelerate on the back of improved relations. As James Laurenceson of the Australia-China Relations Institute recently noted, a stronger economic partnership will help foster more resilient ties across the board. Other analysts also see increased mutual benefits in the bilateral relationship. China-watcher James Curran suggests the visit may signal a maturing, more independent Australian foreign policy. The primary role of Australian statecraft is to do everything we possibly can to avoid a conflict. To avoid ever getting close to a decision about following the Americans into a war of that kind. This was best illustrated by Albanese's refusal to provide Washington with a wide-ranging and largely open-ended commitment to support the US in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Indeed, as Curran observes, Albanese has tried to steer the relationship away from disagreement and towards pragmatic engagement. Following his meeting with Xi, Albanese was repeatedly asked by Australian journalists if he raised sensitive issues such as Taiwan, China's military build-up and the South China Sea. While he confirmed these topics were addressed, he emphasised a preference for peaceful engagement: [...] we want peace and security in the region. That is in the interest of both Australia and in the interest of China. Unsurprisingly, the joint statement made no reference to these issues, reflecting a mutual decision to sidestep confrontation in favour of stabilising the relationship. This diplomatic posture toward China would appear to be a defining feature of the Albanese government's second term: strengthening cooperation while quietly managing differences. Rather than highlighting points of contention, the government is opting to avoid open disagreement where possible. Overt disputes risk destabilising bilateral ties. If issues are raised publicly, it is unlikely to shift entrenched positions on either side. This explains why the ownership of the Port of Darwin, for example, was not mentioned during Albanese's meeting with Xi. Critics, however, argue this risks projecting weakness towards China. Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, warns the government is staying silent in the face of ongoing Chinese coercion: Australia is only complying with China's desires when the government says nothing and leaves the public to trust that the threats posed by China are all being dealt with in the classified realm. This is not viable policy. Australia's sovereignty must not be contingent on Beijing's preferences. Even within China, analysts are cautious about Albanese's approach. As one Chinese scholar told us, "a stable relationship does not necessarily mean a friendly one". In fact, while the Chinese media has stressed Australia and China's shared commitment to regional stability, this was barely mentioned in the official joint statement. Still, there is recognition on both sides that pragmatism rather than ideological grandstanding is the more sustainable path forward. In sum, Albanese's visit does not mark a dramatic reset or bold new direction in Australia-China relations. Rather, it signals a shift toward greater realism. In an increasingly complex and multipolar world, diplomacy grounded in mutual interests, rather than ideology, is not just practical, but may be a growing trend across the globe. The Albanese government has faced an increasingly uncertain world since its re-election in May. US President Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australia-US alliance, raising fresh questions about Canberra's long-term regional strategy. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approach to foreign policy is reflecting a careful recalibration - one that seeks to balance security partnerships with the pursuit of economic opportunities, especially with Australia's largest trading partner, China. Albanese has wrapped up a six-day visit to China which was characterised by a highly pragmatic approach to dealing with the problems and irritants in the bilateral relationship. Albanese's visit to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu - cities emblematic of Australia's political, economic and cultural connections with China - was more than symbolic. It was a high-profile diplomatic venture, with Albanese meeting both the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. But it was more than a leaders' summit. A large team of key business leaders in banking, manufacturing, mining and education were on the trip to meet their Chinese counterparts and seek more cooperation. Economic engagement dominated the visit. As Albanese highlighted before his trip, "my priority is jobs". Broader partnerships spanning multiple sectors, including healthcare, education and green energy, were canvassed. The two nations also explored closer cooperation on energy transition and climate change. Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has even floated a collaboration on artificial intelligence. However, the suggestion has been met with caution in Canberra due to ongoing concerns around national security and data governance. Beyond trade and investment, the visit also marked an effort to rebuild people-to-people exchanges. Since last year, Australian citizens have been able to visit China for up to 30 days without a visa. In turn, Australia will welcome more Chinese visitors under a new Memorandum of Understanding promoting Australia as a premier tourist destination for Chinese travellers. Albanese's meetings with Xi Jinping and Li Qiang also yielded concrete results. The official joint statement emphasised economic cooperation, particularly in climate-related areas such as steel decarbonisation, dryland farming and the green economy. These outcomes align with the Albanese government's guiding principle: cooperate where we can. The deeper economic cooperation has been noted in China, where there is an expectation collaboration will continue to accelerate on the back of improved relations. As James Laurenceson of the Australia-China Relations Institute recently noted, a stronger economic partnership will help foster more resilient ties across the board. Other analysts also see increased mutual benefits in the bilateral relationship. China-watcher James Curran suggests the visit may signal a maturing, more independent Australian foreign policy. The primary role of Australian statecraft is to do everything we possibly can to avoid a conflict. To avoid ever getting close to a decision about following the Americans into a war of that kind. This was best illustrated by Albanese's refusal to provide Washington with a wide-ranging and largely open-ended commitment to support the US in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Indeed, as Curran observes, Albanese has tried to steer the relationship away from disagreement and towards pragmatic engagement. Following his meeting with Xi, Albanese was repeatedly asked by Australian journalists if he raised sensitive issues such as Taiwan, China's military build-up and the South China Sea. While he confirmed these topics were addressed, he emphasised a preference for peaceful engagement: [...] we want peace and security in the region. That is in the interest of both Australia and in the interest of China. Unsurprisingly, the joint statement made no reference to these issues, reflecting a mutual decision to sidestep confrontation in favour of stabilising the relationship. This diplomatic posture toward China would appear to be a defining feature of the Albanese government's second term: strengthening cooperation while quietly managing differences. Rather than highlighting points of contention, the government is opting to avoid open disagreement where possible. Overt disputes risk destabilising bilateral ties. If issues are raised publicly, it is unlikely to shift entrenched positions on either side. This explains why the ownership of the Port of Darwin, for example, was not mentioned during Albanese's meeting with Xi. Critics, however, argue this risks projecting weakness towards China. Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, warns the government is staying silent in the face of ongoing Chinese coercion: Australia is only complying with China's desires when the government says nothing and leaves the public to trust that the threats posed by China are all being dealt with in the classified realm. This is not viable policy. Australia's sovereignty must not be contingent on Beijing's preferences. Even within China, analysts are cautious about Albanese's approach. As one Chinese scholar told us, "a stable relationship does not necessarily mean a friendly one". In fact, while the Chinese media has stressed Australia and China's shared commitment to regional stability, this was barely mentioned in the official joint statement. Still, there is recognition on both sides that pragmatism rather than ideological grandstanding is the more sustainable path forward. In sum, Albanese's visit does not mark a dramatic reset or bold new direction in Australia-China relations. Rather, it signals a shift toward greater realism. In an increasingly complex and multipolar world, diplomacy grounded in mutual interests, rather than ideology, is not just practical, but may be a growing trend across the globe.
AllAfrica
4 days ago
- Business
- AllAfrica
Albanese in China signals shift from friction to realism
The Albanese government has faced an increasingly uncertain world since its re-election in May. US President Donald Trump has cast a long shadow over the Australia–US alliance, raising fresh questions about Canberra's long-term regional strategy. Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's approach to foreign policy is reflecting a careful recalibration – one that seeks to balance security partnerships with the pursuit of economic opportunities, especially with Australia's largest trading partner, China. Albanese has wrapped up a six-day visit to China which was characterized by a highly pragmatic approach to dealing with the problems and irritants in the bilateral relationship. Albanese's visit to Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu – cities emblematic of Australia's political, economic and cultural connections with China – was more than symbolic. It was a high-profile diplomatic venture, with Albanese meeting both the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. But it was more than a leaders' summit. A large team of key business leaders in banking, manufacturing, mining and education were on the trip to meet their Chinese counterparts and seek more cooperation. Economic engagement dominated the visit. As Albanese highlighted before his trip, 'my priority is jobs.' Broader partnerships spanning multiple sectors, including healthcare, education and green energy, were canvassed. The two nations also explored closer cooperation on energy transition and climate change. Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian has even floated a collaboration on artificial intelligence (AI). However, the suggestion has been met with caution in Canberra due to ongoing concerns around national security and data governance. Beyond trade and investment, the visit also marked an effort to rebuild people-to-people exchanges. Since last year, Australian citizens have been able to visit China for up to 30 days without a visa. In turn, Australia will welcome more Chinese visitors under a new Memorandum of Understanding promoting Australia as a premier tourist destination for Chinese travellers. Albanese's meetings with Xi and Li also yielded concrete results. The official joint statement emphasized economic cooperation, particularly in climate-related areas such as steel decarbonization, dryland farming, and the green economy. These outcomes align with the Albanese government's guiding principle: cooperate where we can. The deeper economic cooperation has been noted in China, where there is an expectation that collaboration will continue to accelerate on the back of improved relations. As James Laurenceson of the Australia–China Relations Institute recently noted, a stronger economic partnership will help foster more resilient ties across the board. Other analysts also see increased mutual benefits in the bilateral relationship. China-watcher James Curran suggests the visit may signal a maturing, more independent Australian foreign policy. The primary role of Australian statecraft is to do everything we possibly can to avoid a conflict. To avoid ever getting close to a decision about following the Americans into a war of that kind. This was best illustrated by Albanese's refusal to provide Washington with a wide-ranging and largely open-ended commitment to support the US in any conflict with China over Taiwan. Indeed, as Curran observes, Albanese has tried to steer the relationship away from disagreement and towards pragmatic engagement. Following his meeting with Xi, Albanese was repeatedly asked by Australian journalists if he raised sensitive issues such as Taiwan, China's military build-up and the South China Sea. While he confirmed these topics were addressed, he emphasised a preference for peaceful engagement: […] we want peace and security in the region. That is in the interest of both Australia and in the interest of China. Unsurprisingly, the joint statement made no reference to these issues, reflecting a mutual decision to sidestep confrontation in favour of stabilizing the relationship. This diplomatic posture toward China would appear to be a defining feature of the Albanese government's second term: strengthening cooperation while quietly managing differences. Rather than highlighting points of contention, the government is opting to avoid open disagreement where possible. Overt disputes risk destabilising bilateral ties. If issues are raised publicly, it is unlikely to shift entrenched positions on either side. This explains why the ownership of the Port of Darwin, for example, was not mentioned during Albanese's meeting with Xi. Critics, however, argue this risks projecting weakness towards China. Justin Bassi, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, warns the government is staying silent in the face of ongoing Chinese coercion: Australia is only complying with China's desires when the government says nothing and leaves the public to trust that the threats posed by China are all being dealt with in the classified realm. This is not viable policy. Australia's sovereignty must not be contingent on Beijing's preferences. Even within China, analysts are cautious about Albanese's approach. As one Chinese scholar told us, 'a stable relationship does not necessarily mean a friendly one.' In fact, while the Chinese media has stressed Australia and China's shared commitment to regional stability, this was barely mentioned in the official joint statement. Still, there is recognition on both sides that pragmatism rather than ideological grandstanding is the more sustainable path forward. In sum, Albanese's visit does not mark a dramatic reset or bold new direction in Australia–China relations. Rather, it signals a shift toward greater realism. In an increasingly complex and multipolar world, diplomacy grounded in mutual interests, rather than ideology, is not only practical but may also be a growing trend globally. Edward Sing Yue Chan is postdoctoral fellow in China Studies, Australian National University and Guangyi Pan is lecturer in international political studies at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, UNSW Canberra, UNSW Sydney This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Indian Express
02-05-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
New manufacturing PMI data and hopes from May Day holiday rush: What to know
April has been eventful for China. President Donald Trump ramped up tariffs in stages to an eye-watering 145%, though some exceptions were announced later on electronics, perhaps recognising the damage a prolonged, all-encompassing tariff war would cause to the United States. Trump administration officials have also been suggesting that talks are ongoing with China, but as of May 2, there are no details and no clarity. China has been working to cut reliance on the US trade and push domestic consumption, as we reported in our tracker last week. But new data out this week did show some of the inevitable impacts of the US tariffs on Chinese manufacturing. Meanwhile, Beijing has continued to reach out to other nations. Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Ministers' meeting in Rio de Janeiro on Monday (April 28), and spoke of the 'mutual trust and support between China and Russia.' President Xi Jinping will likely visit Moscow for the May 9 Victory Day parade. Here's what has happened in China over the past week. 1. THE CURIOUS CASE OF TARIFF TALKS On Wednesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said – again – that China and the US were not consulting or negotiating on tariffs. President Trump had said the opposite at least twice earlier in April, once even claiming, in an interview to Time magazine, that the Chinese President had called him. And that same day, Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) had said that 'the US side has proactively reached out to China through multiple channels, hoping to discuss tariffs'. Bill Bishop, a longtime China-watcher based in the US and author of the Sinocism newsletter, flagged what else the CCTV report said: 'Unless the US takes substantial action, China has no need to enter into talks. However, if the US wants to engage…China can use this opportunity to observe, and even draw out, the US's true intentions…' UPSHOT: The conflicting cloak-and-dagger narratives obscure the situation further. China's counter tariff against the US is now at 125%, even though Reuters has reported that a list of exempt US-made products is being drawn up, and companies are being 'quietly notified'. But there is nothing to suggest an overall change of approach from either side. 2. NEW MANUFACTURING DATA SHOW TARIFF IMPACT Reuters reported that China's factory activity 'contracted at the fastest pace in 16 months in April'. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is based on monthly surveys of purchasing managers of enterprises. A note that accompanied the release pointed to 'sharp changes in [China's] external environment'. In separate though not unrelated news, state media Xinhua reported that a meeting of the Politburo, among the highest decision-making bodies on political affairs, had noted that 'the fundamentals of China's sustained economic recovery needs to be further consolidated, and the impact of external shocks is rising.' Other indicators are flashing, too. Bloomberg reported this week that about 40 US-bound cargo ships are currently waiting at ports in China, 40% down from the number of early April. The Guardian reported that China's total e-commerce shipping to the US dropped 65% by volume in the first three months of the year, but rose by 28% in Europe. UPSHOT: Analysts have said the PMI numbers reflect prevailing negative sentiments, but could be overstating the real impact. But they do point to concerns over trade, and are in line with lowered growth projections for China from the likes of Goldman Sachs. China has long claimed it will survive the tariff war, in part by turning to its domestic market. But low consumption has been a problem for a while now, and reviving it is easier said than done. 3. THERE WILL BE A NEW AMERICAN IN BEIJING On Tuesday, Senate confirmed David Perdue, 75, as the US Ambassador to China. A former Republican Senator, Perdue has previously lived in Hong Kong, and held senior positions at companies such as Reebok. Announcing his pick last year, Trump wrote on Truth Social that Perdue's international business career provided 'valuable expertise to help build our relationship with China', and described him as a 'loyal supporter and friend'. UPSHOT: The filling of a key diplomatic role is important to improve contacts between countries especially when their relationship is at a low point. A direct line to the White House could help – on tariff and other issues – if and when Beijing chooses to engage. Labour Day is a holiday in China, but people can take several consecutive days off as long as they work on the weekend before or after. Labour Day was on Thursday, and the Communist Party mouthpiece Global Times reported that the number of holiday travellers was expected to grow by 8% compared to last year. The average daily highway traffic volume and passenger trips on Shanghai's rail network are projected to rise. UPSHOT: The Global Times stated, 'The May Day break has long served as a barometer of consumer trends.' China is looking to bolster domestic consumption and project self-reliance; it will be looking for hope in the May Day numbers. 5. COMPETING CLAIMS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDERLINED Both the Philippines and China have released photos of their flags in the Spratly islands in the South China Sea, at a place the Filipinos call Sandy Cay and the Chinese call Tiexian Reef. The Associated Press said the sandbars where the photos were clicked are near the Philippines-occupied Thitu Island, and Subi Reef, which China has transformed into a base with a military-grade runway and buildings with communications facilities. UPSHOT: From 2022 onwards, under President Bongbong Marcos, the Philippines has adopted a stronger position against aggressive Chinese claims over the region. Military exercises are currently ongoing between the Philippines and the US, with the participation of more than 14,000 soldiers.
Telegraph
29-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
China's huge new unmanned submarine lies in wait for HMS Prince of Wales
China appears to have developed an enormous robotic submarine. If so, China's rivals – Taiwan and the United States, among others – need to figure out what the sub is for. And fast. This year, Britain's Royal Navy will also be thinking hard about it, as its Carrier Strike Group has just set out on a voyage to the Indo-Pacific. One possible mission might be among the most alarming. Large unmanned underwater vehicles are uniquely suited for covert minelaying: seeding shallow water with munitions that can break the keel of all but the largest warships. In early February, China-watcher MT Anderson spotted in satellite imagery what appeared to be an approximately 150-foot submarine with cruciform fins and a very short sail. It could be a crewless design – a development of an even larger experimental UUV that appeared in China in 2018. With just that satellite imagery to analyse, it's impossible to say for sure whether the new sub is unmanned and what it's for. But consider: among the many possible scenarios is a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. Last year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC concluded that a blockade by the People's Liberation Army is actually the likeliest Chinese strategy for coercing Taiwan. 'This scenario aligns most closely with PLA doctrinal writings,' CSIS pointed out. Underwater minefields, carefully positioned to strangle trade to and from Taiwan, could thread an important strategic needle: weakening Taiwan without provoking US intervention, CSIS pointed out. 'Mines serve to deter vessels from attempting to run the blockade, and they offer a more passive means for the PLA to threaten noncompliant ships,' CSIS explained. 'Without mines, China's forces will need to play a more active role in stopping entry into Taiwan and may therefore be put in more situations in which commanders have to make decisions about exactly how to engage.' An announced military exercise would provide cover for the minelaying. 'During the exercises, PLA submarines covertly lay sea mines at the entrances of Taiwan's major ports,' the think-tank posited. 'The mines are timed to activate later to coincide with the start of blockade operations.' The problem, of course, is how to emplace those mines without the Taiwanese military noticing. The waters around Taiwan are shallow. And Taiwanese and allied intelligence carefully track the comings and goings of the PLA Navy's manned submarines. 'Covert minelaying can be difficult,' according to CSIS. Unmanned submarines, which could spend weeks or even months slowly trawling the China Seas, may stand a better chance of evading detection. Note that the US Navy plans to assign its own large UUV, the 84-foot Orca, to minelaying duties. Deploying the $50-million robotic subs to lay mines not only answers a fleet requirement, Orca program manager Capt. Matt Lewis told The War Zone, it also avoids asking too much of an immature technology. Dropping a mine from the UUV is 'probably most akin to opening a door and having a payload drop out of it, slide out of it, fall out of it,' Lewis said. If the Chinese UUV is also immature – and there's no reason to believe it isn't – it too could perform minelaying missions not just to meet an urgent requirement, but also to make good use of a new technology that's not yet capable of more complex tasks. In that case, it's worth asking: what might the Chinese UUV do next? 'My perception of doing work like this is, we're at the initial stages … similar to aviation back in the early 20th century,' Lewis said of the Orca. 'I think we're at the early stages of figuring all that out. So, tremendous opportunity with Orca to go learn and expand what we can do and provide other new capabilities for the Navy.'
Yahoo
03-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The high stakes of China's ‘Two Sessions' summits this week
Analysts and investors are closely watching China's 'Two Sessions' summit — an annual gathering of Beijing's rubber-stamp parliament and a key political advisory group — to glean clues as to how the country plans to navigate increasingly turbulent geopolitical and economic waters. Beijing is expected to reveal its economic growth targets, its monetary and fiscal priorities, and, perhaps most crucially, its broader policy course. This year's Two Sessions, beginning Tuesday, comes amid persistent economic malaise in China — although investor sentiment has risen in recent weeks — and as the country faces an escalating trade war with the US. The official statements that arise from Two Sessions gatherings are generally marked full of hyperbolic language to describe the country's future plans — think 'momentous' and 'extraordinary' — but this year presents 'a moment for China to match its words with actions,' longtime China-watcher Wang Xiangwei told the South China Morning Post. The week will test how serious Beijing is about boosting domestic consumption, a critical piece of its larger economic plan. China's leadership has acknowledged the challenge, but has yet to fully prioritize it, Wang said: The country needs 'more concrete actions,' such as loosening constraints on private firms and expanding social security benefits to low-income groups 'to make consumers and entrepreneurs feel confident enough to spend again.' China's 31 provinces have already held their own 'mini-Two Sessions meetings' that together provide hints of what to expect from Beijing, The Wire China wrote. The local gatherings 'paint a picture of tacit acknowledgment of challenges and uncertainties,' and 'an economy undergoing a decisive push for industrial transformation.' Central to the latter is artificial intelligence: More than two thirds of provinces outlined plans to integrate AI into other industries, 'an indication that Beijing views AI as a pillar of long-term national competitiveness.' The moves reflect the global success of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek's new low-cost model, which lifted investor sentiment around China. In the face of existent US tariffs and President Donald Trump's pledge to hike them further, Beijing has held off from making the kind of swift overtures to Trump that Mexico and Canada have: Chinese officials are 'moving much more cautiously and deliberately as they try to assess Mr. Trump and determine what it is he actually wants,' The New York Times reported. One expert said China is especially suspicious of 'hidden traps' in early talks. That caution could ultimately threaten the initial economic momentum that marked the first months of 2025: Chinese manufacturing activity in February grew at its fastest pace in months, a potential sign that stimulus measures launched late last year are working.
