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South China Morning Post

The EU is doing itself no trade favours in pushing China on Russia

Ahead of the China-European Union summit , set to take place in Beijing on July 24, the 27-nation bloc seems determined to adopt a firm stance in its relationship with the world's second-largest economy. While accusing China of aiding Russia's war efforts in Ukraine, the EU also seeks what it sees as fairer economic relations. But can the growing pressure influence Beijing's position on Moscow and the Ukraine conflict? In a recent speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Brussels 'cannot accept' that China is 'de facto enabling Russia's war economy' . She also said the EU's process of 'de-risking, not decoupling' from the world's second-largest economy must 'speed up'. This comes just days after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reportedly told top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas that Beijing did not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing. Von der Leyen's rhetoric suggests the EU has adopted an 'if you're not with us, you're against us' dichotomy in its approach towards China. But even if Beijing does not wish for Russia to lose the war, it does not necessarily mean it is interested in Moscow accomplishing all of its goals in Ukraine. Similarly, American support for Kyiv does not automatically imply that Washington wants Ukraine to secure a complete victory over Russia. If the US really benefits from the war and China is, as widely seen, the conflict's 'big winner' , then what does either power have to gain from ending the stalemate? More importantly, from Beijing's perspective, it would be highly problematic if a Russian victory resulted from US President Donald Trump's betrayal of Kyiv, however unlikely that seems. There is no free lunch in politics and policymakers in Beijing are fully aware the US would expect the Kremlin to make concessions in exchange for any US abandonment of Ukraine. What if those concessions mean Russia's decoupling from China? There has been growing concern among Russian analysts that Trump aims to sow discord between Moscow and Beijing, eventually using Russia as an instrument against China. But given that Trump, increasingly annoyed with Russian President Vladimir Putin, now says Washington must continue to send weapons to Ukraine and is threatening to to impose tariffs on any country doing business with Russia, the chances of Moscow and Washington normalising relations any time soon are rather low. Thus, the scenario of Russia being used by the Americans against China is not on the horizon.