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Japan Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Japan Times
China is winning Donald Trump's trade war
The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world's two largest economies. Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a 'deal' that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently — and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant and more convinced that its long game is paying off. Since the grinding Sino-American trade war began in 2018, China has crafted a playbook that blends defensive and offensive strategies to mitigate its vulnerability to tariffs and sanctions. On the defensive front, China has rerouted trade flows, developed hedge against the dollar-based global financial system and accelerated investment in indigenous technologies. It has also made a concerted push to boost domestic consumption, although not as an end in itself but as a means to reinforce strategic sectors like artificial intelligence applications and green tech. On offense, China has tightened export controls and demonstrated a readiness to retaliate swiftly and surgically. Chinese authorities' response to the second Trump administration's tariff threats and escalations reflects this tactical flexibility and steadfast resolve. Over recent months, China has hit back almost immediately, taken a hard line in negotiations and generally refused to be cowed. It is not merely reacting to pressure; it is redefining the U.S.-China trade conflict on its own terms. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has — perhaps unwittingly — exposed the dependency of U.S. industries on China for rare-earth minerals and other inputs. The disruption to bilateral trade triggered by Trump's tariffs has left U.S. manufacturers scrambling and overpaying for materials. In implementing rare-earth export controls in early April, the Chinese government has discovered a powerful tool for inflicting pain on American businesses. Trump's erratic tariff theatrics have handed the Communist Party of China (CPC) a propaganda win (though standing up to Trump is not as politically popular in China as many outsiders believe) and, more importantly, a strategic advantage. For the many Global South governments that are skeptical of the Western development model, China's resilience in the face of U.S. pressure lends credence to President Xi Jinping's claim that the world is undergoing 'great changes not seen in a century.' From the Chinese government's perspective, the Trump administration's determination to decouple the two economies at any cost is the culmination of American efforts to stifle China's rise. While China does not want a trade war or to decouple, it is willing to risk a trade war that the United States may lose — and it would rather decouple than kowtow to Trump. That is why Chinese leaders, businesspeople and entrepreneurs have focused on building resilience and self-reliance, which means, first and foremost, reducing dependence on U.S. markets and technology. While nothing can compare to U.S. consumer demand and technological innovation, Chinese firms now view their chances of competing in the U.S. and accessing its high-tech products as close to zero, and operate accordingly. Huawei's remarkable comeback following U.S. sanctions and restrictions is illustrative. Now ByteDance is facing similar pressure, as Trump tries to force it to sell TikTok, its video-sharing app, to American buyers. Of course, Trump's tariffs sting and China's leaders know it. They could hit China's low-value-added light manufacturing — such as apparel and footwear — particularly hard. But shrinking exports might end up benefiting China by accelerating industrial consolidation, forcing laggards out of the game and improving efficiency. True, unemployment could rise. But in a country where factories are already highly automated, the political fallout is likely to be muted. Perhaps more importantly, China has withstood worse. For example, market-oriented reforms and restructuring led to more than 76 million workers being laid off between 1992 and 2002. A new wave of layoffs is unlikely to shake the CPC's grip on power. The longer-term impact of Trump's tariff policies is more profound. Just as the crackdown on Huawei and ZTE turbocharged China's tech ambitions, renewed geoeconomic restrictions have only made it easier for CPC leaders to rally the public against perceived foreign humiliation. The brief pause in tariffs, which merely provides exporters with a window to rush out goods rather than laying the foundation for a détente, has not changed this sentiment. Given that Trump's tariff shock coincides with the final year of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, policymakers have tried to prop up domestic consumption and support small businesses with fiscal and monetary stimulus. But these measures will not fix the economy's structural flaws — namely, the low household consumption rate. Such a rebalancing will likely take years. In the meantime, as the external environment deteriorates, the CPC leadership — dominated by members with engineering backgrounds — and the country's industrialists will continue to pour resources into advanced technology, especially AI-powered advanced manufacturing ecosystems, in the hopes of avoiding a productivity slump. China's high-stakes bet on developing domestic technology, first made when Trump began his trade war in 2018, is not a guaranteed win. But as the U.S. tries to back China into a corner, few see another way out. Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, is an adjunct assistant professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs and the author of "Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System?" (Cambridge University Press, 2022) and "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" (Harvard University Press, 2023). © Project Syndicate, 2025
LBCI
04-07-2025
- Business
- LBCI
'Unresolved' issues remain between China and France in brandy dispute: Paris
Paris on Friday praised steps taken by China to resolve a trade dispute concerning brandies but added that a number of "major issues" remained unresolved. "The decision by the Chinese authorities to close an investigation into European brandies, with a very broad scope of exemptions, is a positive step for many players in the cognac and Armagnac industry," French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said in a statement to AFP. "Several major issues remain unresolved," he added. AFP
The Independent
01-07-2025
- The Independent
Warning for travellers as China changes luggage rules
Travellers are being warned about a change by Chinese authorities banning passengers from carrying certain power banks on flights. China's aviation regulator has banned passengers from carrying power banks without Chinese safety certification markings. Gadgets recently recalled by manufacturers because of safety concerns have also been banned. The move, which applies to anyone boarding a flight in China, follows a series of incidents globally involving lithium battery products, including power banks, overheating on planes. South Korea said a spare power bank was a possible cause of a fire that engulfed an Air Busan plane in January. Then, in March, a Hong Kong Airlines flight from China to Hong Kong was forced to land in China due to a fire in an overhead baggage compartment. Lithium batteries in devices such as laptops, mobile phones, electronic cigarettes and power banks can produce smoke, fire or extreme heat when manufacturing faults or damage cause them to short circuit. They are a growing concern for aviation safety as passengers carry more battery-powered items on flights. Last year three incidents every two weeks of overheating lithium batteries on planes were recorded globally by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, compared to just under one a week in 2018. China's Civil Aviation Administration said on Thursday power banks must be clearly marked with "3C" certification, short for China Compulsory Certification, which authorities require for products that could impact health, safety, and environmental protection. Several leading power bank manufacturers in China, including Anker and Romoss, have this month recalled batches of battery products due to safety concerns. China's market regulator has revoked or suspended the 3C certification of several power bank and battery cell manufacturers. Since the Air Busan incident, airlines globally have been tightening power bank rules. Aviation rules generally say power banks should be carried in cabin baggage, but increasingly airlines are banning their use on board and say they must be kept within view to spot any problems. China has since 2014 forbidden passengers from charging devices using power banks during flights. Southwest Airlines LUV.N at the end of May became the first US airline to say portable charging devices must be visible while in use during flight.
South China Morning Post
30-06-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Can China's partial lifting of Japanese seafood ban aid a post-Fukushima reset?
China has partially lifted its two-year ban on Japanese seafood imports in the latest step by Beijing to remove a diplomatic roadblock that has strained ties between the two neighbours. According to a Chinese customs notice issued on Sunday, shipments of seafood originating from 'certain regions' of Japan would resume 'conditionally' with immediate effect. The decision was made 'under the premise of ongoing long-term international monitoring and independent Chinese sampling of Japan's Fukushima nuclear-contaminated water discharge with no abnormalities found, and Japan's commitment to ensuring the quality and safety of aquatic products exported to China', the notice said. The measure, which covers imports of aquatic products including edible aquatic animals, will not apply to 10 Japanese prefectures, including Fukushima, Gunma, Tochigi, Ibaraki, Miyagi, Niigata, Nagano, Saitama, Tokyo and Chiba. Beijing suspended food imports from those areas in July 2023 – before Japan began releasing treated waste water from its damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant, despite strong opposition from Chinese authorities. Beijing extended the prohibition about one month later, imposing a full import ban on all Japanese seafood.
The Guardian
29-06-2025
- The Guardian
Chinese authority scams fleece international students in Australia of $5m in five months
Scammers pretending to be Chinese authorities are increasingly targeting international students in Australia, threatening 'serious trouble' and 24-hour surveillance and fleecing them of more than $5m in just five months. The scammers claim to be Chinese law enforcement officers who demand that personal information or money be transferred to them. Some accuse students of criminal wrongdoing, such as receiving fake passports or credit cards. Victims may be told their identities are being used to commit financial crimes. In some cases, scammers say Australian authorities are planning to arrest and deport them for beaching their visa conditions. These scams have worried law enforcement for several years but the National Anti-Scam Centre has warned they are becoming more threatening. The centre is managed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email 'We have been seeing more cases of these scams mentioning 24-hour surveillance,' an anti-scam centre spokesperson said. 'Since March, there have been 16 cases, with eight reported in May alone.' 'Don't be pressured by a threatening caller asking you to prove you have not been involved in a crime. 'Hang up and don't respond. Don't engage with the caller and do not follow their instructions. If you do, they may escalate their intimidation tactics and attempt to get your money.' Almost 680 Chinese authority scams were reported to the anti-scam centre in the first five months of 2025. During this period, $5.1m was lost to the scammers, who had a 5.5% success rate. The average loss for those implicated was $138,018. The victims, according to the Australian government, are predominantly aged between 18 and 24. This cohort – including 21 students – lost $3.3m to the Chinese authority scams. Ten older students were among the 37 people scammed. The ACCC has previously warned of Chinese students being targeted with 'virtual kidnapping' scams. In one case, an 18-year-old student was conned by scammers claiming to be Chinese police, who insisted she hide in her apartment and stage her kidnapping. The woman sent a series of photos and videos of herself 'kidnapped' to her family via the Chinese social media app WeChat. The messages were followed up by others purporting to be from Chinese authorities and telling the relatives to transfer money to secure her release. 'Never leave your camera on because someone has instructed you to,' an ACCC spokesperson said. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion 'If someone tells you that you are being investigated, speak to the local police in Australia, the international student support body of your university or your local Australian-Chinese community support service.' In many cases, the scammers begin by cold calling someone speaking Mandarin, or leaving a message insisting they be urgently called back. They then falsely claim money is needed to prove their targets' innocence. The scams are being closely monitored by state police forces, including in Victoria, where officers allege they are part of a 'worldwide extortion' strategy. 'They target the Mandarin-speaking community, particularly students of Chinese background,' a police spokesperson said. 'The scammers lie to victims about who they are and blackmail them to extort their money.' The National Anti-Scam Centre has urged people not to provide money or personal information to anyone if there is any doubt as to their credentials. They have warned scammers often create a sense of urgency to prevent people from carefully assessing their options.
